The New York Analysis of Policy and Government concludes its review of the growing alienation between the U.S. and Turkey
Leonid Bershidsky, in a Bloomberg report, described Turkey’s strained relations with Europe:
“President Recep Tayyip Erdogan… has created a diplomatic crisis between Turkey and some of its key North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies. Relations with the Netherlands are all but broken off, Germany is struggling to remain civil under a barrage of Erdogan insults, and Denmark is siding with its north European neighbors. Add to this Turkey’s differences with the U.S. and the perennial tension between Turkey and Greece, and it’s no longer clear how much of a NATO member Erdogan’s country really is. Despite its considerable military strength, Turkey’s participation in alliance activities isn’t extensive, and its interests don’t necessarily align with those of NATO.” During the Obama Administration, Bershidsky reports, “Secretary of State John Kerry came close to threatening Turkey with the loss of its NATO membership…In Syria, the world’s biggest war theater today, Turkey acts as an independent player and sometime rival to the U.S…Cyprus is another tension point within NATO. Turkey is refusing to withdraw its troops from occupied Northern Cyprus and thus hindering the latest talks on unifying the island. … All in all, Turkey appears to have more disputes than friendships with its NATO allies. And its engagement with the alliance itself, which it joined in 1952, isn’t particularly strong… Turkey only took part in four of the 18 key NATO exercises held last year…”
Retired US Army military intelligence and former Soviet analyst Paul Davis, in a Rudaw review, wonders whether Turkey belongs in NATO at all, particularly since President Erdogan has moved away from democracy.
“There was a time that it made sense for Turkey to be a part of this alliance, when during the cold war it was the southern anchor and the only NATO country with a common border to the Soviet Union. This was also a time when the Turkish government was run by secularist. This did not mean that Turkey was a democracy in the western tradition but it was somewhat unique in the region and could talk to the west. Today however we see an implosion of both secular and democratic principles in Turkey…There is very little likelihood that NATO will make any move to remove Turkey. With a revanchist Russia on the rise and a confused situation in the Middle East the west is paralyzed into inaction. [But with Turkey’s]…military engaged killing its own citizens it is in no position to help NATO militarily should the need arise. With it actions against the press and its move to have a rubber stamp Parliament it is in no way a democratic country on par with the other member states. It long ago lost the Kemalist principle of its founding and its time it lost its place in NATO.”
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The Trump administration has sought to repair the strained relationship, but the complications, which also involve Erdogan’s increasing affronts to human rights within his own nation, are significant.
The unfortunate reality is that in terms of the incessant maneuvering and fighting that characterize the Middle East, the U.S. and Turkey have considerable differences in their goals, especially regarding the fate of the Kurdish people, both those within Turkey’s borders and elsewhere in the region. One recent flashpoint: The U.S. refused to sell small weapons to Erdogan’s security detail, which has been involved in assaults on peaceful protestors in Washington.
Scott Peterson reported in the Christian Science Monitor that “Erdogan groused that the US was refusing to sell weapons to a fellow NATO ally, while giving even more lethal arms for free – 3,000 truckloads worth, he said – to ‘terrorists.’ He meant US-backed Kurdish forces in northern Syria fighting the so-called Islamic State.”
In the broader sense, Turkey’s relationship with the U.S. and NATO continues to serve its purpose. Both sides gain from their mutual need to deter the expansionist tendencies of Iran and Russia. But the reality is that Erdogan’s authoritarian tendency, and his drift towards Islamic fundamentalism, makes working with his government unpleasant. His nations’ goals in the region will continue to place him at odds with the western powers. It remains to be seen whether both side can continue to maneuver the tightrope they are treading.