Will Russia Invade? – USA Gov Policy

Russia’s military appears ready to move into Ukraine. Will Vladimir Putin decide to give the order to deploy? No modern nation-state can be fully certain of another’s intended actions. Security treaties can be broken, and defensive weapons can be employed offensively. Vladimir Putin recognizes this principle of power politics and is taking full advantage of the chaos found in the anarchic conditions of the international environment. Over the last year he has cleverly broadcast his moves while western democratic leaders remain frozen in place watching, and anticipating, the Russian leader’s next moves. No one but Putin, however, knows his long-term intentions regarding Ukraine and the remainder of the former Soviet bloc states.

To date diplomacy has not resolved this latest European security crisis. Putin continues to defy the norms of the international rules-based system that has maintained relative stability in the global community. He ignores the censure of international institutions intent on curbing Russia’s bad behavior. Today the world is left guessing what Putin might do while simultaneously looking for clues to understand how far he could go should he decide to deploy his military.

Some western analysts suggest that Putin has no intention of conducting an aggressive and expensive war but simply is bartering for a deal with the West. The critical point is that no one knows for sure. The movement of Russia’s armed forces to the Ukrainian border could be a red herring bargaining maneuver in a complex power scheme being played out on a diplomatic chess board. Several military analysts in Washington, however, see Putin’s public statements as foreshadowing a larger kinetic military operation in which Russia seizes control of the government of Ukraine and soon after that of Belarus and Georgia. The West may not know the full answer until the play is called in hindsight.

Throughout the past year Putin has openly thwarted attempts to reduce tensions along his country’s borderlands. He has ignored assurances from NATO Member states that the organization is not seeking to incorporate Eastern Europe into the alliance. In 2022 he is moving forward with a new large-scale Russian-Belarusian military exercise from February 10-20. “Soyuznaya Reshimost,” or “Allied Resolve” in English, “forms a critical dimension in Moscow’s war planning against Ukraine,’ according to the Roger McDermott of the Jamestown Foundation. It will be the largest deployment of Russian armed forces since 1991. He notes that for the first time the forces are from Russia’s Eastern Military District. Writing for Jamestown he points out “Their presence there effectively expands the encirclement of Ukraine and sends a strategic message to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to stay out of the coming conflict.” The Russian Defense Ministry said an exercise agreement with Belarus was signed at the presidential level between Putin and Alyaksandr Lukashenka. In addition to its strategic timing, it will take place closer to the Polish and Ukraine border areas than in the past. Although Minsk has moved politically closer to Moscow recently, analysts point out that there are political forces inside Belarus who are wary of Russia regaining too much control over the political apparatus of the Belarusian state. The future of Ukraine and Belarus are at risk.

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Putin appears prepared to continue conducting his so-called “military exercises” in 2022, forward deploying troops and materiel. The Russia intelligence services, with their long expertise in disinformation and propaganda campaigns, are aiding the effort. They have been working overtime to ensure the potential invasion of Ukraine remains front page news while blaming others, in advance, for precipitating actions that could require a Russian military response. Moscow has effectively announced each strategic step publicly over the last year. Some analysts in Washington say this makes Putin an even greater danger to Eastern Europe and the West. While he has yet to surpass a threshold requiring NATO to take retaliatory action against Russia, he is drawing the ire of much of Europe with Western leaders offering various forms of military support to Ukraine. “The [Russian] force mix deployed to Belarus for the large-scale military exercise serves a number of simultaneous roles. It offers additional hypothetical strike options into Ukraine, including an attack on Kyiv, deters any possible NATO response, and increases pressure on the Alliance’s eastern flank,” says McDermott. Belarus may serve as one of the Russian launch locations for an invasion of Ukraine. It also could result in Putin’s forces never leaving the nation and, instead, Russia would effectively govern the territory as a puppet state.

Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea was put together quickly, according to American intelligence analysts. This time Putin is moving slowly in plain sight of the Western world. It is a bold step that could mean a return to a more fragmented Europe if Putin seizes multiple European states either through military force or by destroying the underpinnings of sovereignty in places like Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia…..

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department during the Reagan Administration.

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.