Russia’s military appears ready to move into Ukraine. Will Vladimir Putin decide to give the order to deploy? No modern nation-state can be fully certain of another’s intended actions. Security treaties can be broken, and defensive weapons can be employed offensively. Vladimir Putin recognizes this principle of power politics and is taking full advantage of the chaos found in the anarchic conditions of the international environment. Over the last year he has cleverly broadcast his moves while western democratic leaders remain frozen in place watching, and anticipating, the Russian leader’s next moves. No one but Putin, however, knows his long-term intentions regarding Ukraine and the remainder of the former Soviet bloc states.
To date diplomacy has not resolved this latest European security crisis. Putin continues to defy the norms of the international rules-based system that has maintained relative stability in the global community. He ignores the censure of international institutions intent on curbing Russia’s bad behavior. Today the world is left guessing what Putin might do while simultaneously looking for clues to understand how far he could go should he decide to deploy his military.
Some western analysts suggest that Putin has no intention of conducting an aggressive and expensive war but simply is bartering for a deal with the West. The critical point is that no one knows for sure. The movement of Russia’s armed forces to the Ukrainian border could be a red herring bargaining maneuver in a complex power scheme being played out on a diplomatic chess board. Several military analysts in Washington, however, see Putin’s public statements as foreshadowing a larger kinetic military operation in which Russia seizes control of the government of Ukraine and soon after that of Belarus and Georgia. The West may not know the full answer until the play is called in hindsight.
Throughout the past year Putin has openly thwarted attempts to reduce tensions along his country’s borderlands. He has ignored assurances from NATO Member states that the organization is not seeking to incorporate Eastern Europe into the alliance. In 2022 he is moving forward with a new large-scale Russian-Belarusian military exercise from February 10-20. “Soyuznaya Reshimost,” or “Allied Resolve” in English, “forms a critical dimension in Moscow’s war planning against Ukraine,’ according to the Roger McDermott of the Jamestown Foundation. It will be the largest deployment of Russian armed forces since 1991. He notes that for the first time the forces are from Russia’s Eastern Military District. Writing for Jamestown he points out “Their presence there effectively expands the encirclement of Ukraine and sends a strategic message to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to stay out of the coming conflict.” The Russian Defense Ministry said an exercise agreement with Belarus was signed at the presidential level between Putin and Alyaksandr Lukashenka. In addition to its strategic timing, it will take place closer to the Polish and Ukraine border areas than in the past. Although Minsk has moved politically closer to Moscow recently, analysts point out that there are political forces inside Belarus who are wary of Russia regaining too much control over the political apparatus of the Belarusian state. The future of Ukraine and Belarus are at risk.
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Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea was put together quickly, according to American intelligence analysts. This time Putin is moving slowly in plain sight of the Western world. It is a bold step that could mean a return to a more fragmented Europe if Putin seizes multiple European states either through military force or by destroying the underpinnings of sovereignty in places like Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia…..
Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department during the Reagan Administration.