The New York Analysis of Policy and Government concludes its examination of the tensions between the world’s two most populous nations.
A clash between India and China would bring into play massive armed forces. Each nation possesses nuclear weapons. India is believed to have 110 nuclear warheads, 400 cruise missiles, and 5,000 ballistic missiles. China has a minimum of 260 warheads, 3,000 cruise missiles, and 13,000 ballistic missiles. The Chinese nuclear arsenal may be far larger, as open-source information may significantly underestimate the true size of Beijing’s atomic arsenal. A Diplomat study notes that “China officially communicates the least about the size, status and capabilities of its nuclear forces. A Georgetown University study by Dr. Philip Karber points out the challenge of correctly estimating the nuclear capability of a secretive state. In the case of China, a large number of weapons may be concealed in a vast array of tunnels.”
The two nations have conventional forces that are also among the world’s most powerful, according to Global Firepower, the Arms Control agency , and other sources. India has 188 surface ships, and 15 submarines. China has 342 surface ships, and 67 submarines. India has 3,468,000 men at arms, China has 4,635,000. India has 2,102 military aircraft, China possesses 2,955. India has 11,130 armored vehicles, China fields 11,245. India has 683 helicopters, China, 1,118. India has 7,704 artillery pieces, compared to China’s 8,136.
Kyle Mizokami, writing in The National Interest notes that “…war between India and China would be one of the largest and most destructive conflicts in Asia. A war between the two powers would rock the Indo-Pacific region, cause thousands of casualties on both sides and take a significant toll on the global economy. Geography and demographics would play a unique role, limiting the war’s scope and ultimately the conditions of victory… Both countries’ ‘No First Use’ policies regarding nuclear weapons make the outbreak of nuclear war very unlikely. Both countries have such large populations, each over 1.3 billion, that they are essentially unconquerable. Like all modern wars, a war between India and China would be fought over land, sea, and air; geography would limit the scope of the land conflict, while it would be the air conflict, fought with both aircraft and missiles, that would do the most damage to both countries. The trump card, however, may be India’s unique position to dominate a sea conflict, with dire consequences for the Chinese economy.”
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Analysts believe that the territorial dispute was a symptom, rather than a cause, of the tensions between the two nations. Stratfor believes reports “This is a rivalry born completely of high-tech geopolitics…the theoretical arc of operations of Chinese fighter jets at Tibetan airfields includes India. Indian space satellites are able to do surveillance on China. In addition, India is able to send warships into the South China Sea, even as China helps develop state-of-the-art ports in the Indian Ocean. And so, India and China are eyeing each other warily…it becomes apparent that the two nations with the largest populations in the world (even as both are undergoing rapid military buildups) are encroaching upon each other’s spheres of influence…”
While remaining at loggerheads over border disputes and regional influence, trade relations between the two most populous nations on the planet are significant. India Today describes the growth in economic relations: “In the past two years, Chinese investment in India has grown almost six times with the foreign direct investment jumping from 1 billion dollars in 2014 to 6 billion dollars in 2015. “As far as exports are concerned, it is obvious China considers India a hot investment destination and knows that India is the answer for boosting it’s manufacturing sector. Last year, Chinese exports to India stood at a whopping 60 billion dollars as compared to India’s miniscule 16 billion dollar export to China, widening the trade deficit between the two Asian Giants,” says economist Akash Jindal.
The Times of India reports that “After years of decline, Indian exports to China rose sharply in the first four months of this year registering a 20 per cent increase to $5.57 billion, though the trade deficit continued to persist. Indian exports received a major boost mainly due to China increasing the steel consumption by importing big quantity of iron ore as well as gems and diamonds besides cotton materials.”