The popularity Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump have amassed is a significant indicator of the mindset of the American electorate.
The Senator from Vermont and the billionaire from New York have little in common. Sanders is an avowed socialist, Trump espouses conservative views. At the outset of their seemingly quixotic quest for the White House, the pundits gave neither much chance of making a significant splash in the run-up to 2016. Clearly, the chattering classes were wrong. The reasons both have fared well, from opposite ends of the ideological spectrum, are not that obscure.
The United States is not doing well, either at home or abroad.
Despite the publicly stated drop in unemployment, listed in the Bureau of Labor Statistics “U-3” number as about 5.3%, the more accurate figure, the U-6, is a dismal 10.5%, and the real rate may be far higher still. The labor participation rate is the worst it has been in close to 40 years. In particular, the employment rate of minority communities continues at astronomical levels. This, despite the extraordinary power Democrats have wielded for so long, with solid control of the White House and both houses of Congress for several years, and then the White House and the Senate until the last election cycle. It is not surprising, then, that many have taken a significant interest in one of the only self-proclaimed labor-friendly senators not only not a part of the Democrat leadership, but not even a registered Democrat.
As the financial numbers for the first part of 2015 come perilously close to recessionary levels, the anger felt by many within the party is being directed at the “establishment” Democrats. That’s bad news for candidates like Clinton and Martin O’Malley, good news for Sanders.
GOP rank and file members have their own complaints.
In the less than seven years of the Obama Administration, America has plummeted from its former status as the world’s leading superpower to a far lesser position. In every corner of the planet, including the western hemisphere, Washington’s influence has been sharply reduced. While the media may have decided that, as Francis Fukuyama wrote following the collapse of the Soviet Union that “history came to an end,” the leaders of Russia, China, North Korea, Iran and various terrorist entities didn’t agree. As the U.S. sharply reduced its military prowess, those other nations dramatically increased theirs.
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A growing segment of Republican enrollees is becoming increasingly furious about this state of global affairs. America’s decline is seen not as an inevitable turn of events, but the result of truly amateurish policy decisions on the part of the White House. The Obama/Clinton “Reset” with Russia was a disaster, the pacifism towards China’s aggression equally incompetent. The premature withdrawal from Iraq led to ISIS. While the GOP leadership has been sharply critical of all this, they have done little to oppose it. They have been out maneuvered by the White House at every turn, and even with control of both houses of Congress, still are ineffective. Indeed, that leadership appears more interested in quelling the influence of their conservative Tea Party-affiliated fellow Republicans than in countering the President’s extreme left-wing positions.
Interestingly enough, GOP conservatives and left wing Democrats may have several common complaints about Washington’s actions since President Obama first took office. Both are angry at China’s economic policies which have hurt American businesses and workers. Black Americans are angered by the President’s failure to control illegal immigration, which has devastated the job market for inner city black youth; Republicans worry about security, public health, and financial crises generated by the nearly unrestricted flow across the southern border.
A common element among both supporters of socialist Sanders and Republican Trump is the lack of trust in their respective party’s leaders. Both establishments have accomplished little of the promises they made. Neither has been effective in addressing the nation’s needs.
Both party establishments are seen as more interested in maintaining their careers than in doing the people’s business. Increasingly, one hears that there are, indeed, two major political parties in the nation—the incumbents, and everybody else.
There is little chance that either Sanders or Trump will win the nomination. Having an avowed socialist as a presidential standard bearer could finally alienate the many Democrats who have been dismayed at the extreme left-wing tilt of their party. Trump’s checkered career, including his bankruptcies, contributions to Democrats, and harsh comments almost insure his lack of success in November, at a time when Republicans are desperate to retake the Executive Branch.
However, the unexpected popularity of both “outsiders” should be a clear warning to the leadership of both parties.