Update on NATO – USA Gov Policy

NATO’s role has been revitalized by Russia’s arms buildup, its aggression against Crimea and Ukraine, and its threatening moves towards eastern Europe. During the brief period between the fall of the USSR and Vladimir Putin’s return to an expansionist stance, NATO became a key player in the fight against terror.

Speaking at the organization’s recent Parliamentary Assembly session in November, the organization’s Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, addressed the main concerns and status of the defensive alliance, which will gain an additional member this spring when Montenegro is expected to join.

According to Stoltenberg, defense spending continues to be a key issue. He noted that it has been his “main focus” since assuming his leadership post. He remains concerned that some NATO members are spending less than 2% of their annual budgets on defense. “After years of sliding defence spending, we have seen a shift. At our Wales’ Summit in 2014, Allies committed to spend 2% of GDP on defence within a decade. That commitment is already bearing fruit. In 2015, we stopped the defence cuts and we saw a spending increase across Europe and Canada. I expect further increase of 3% for European Allies and Canada this year. So we are moving in the right direction but we still have a long way to go [the] 2% target really matters.”

NATO is increasing its defensive presence in the eastern part of the Alliance, including the deployment of four multinational battalions to the Baltic States and Poland. Earlier this year, Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States each committed to lead one of those battalions. The alliance is taking steps to strengthen its presence in the Black Sea region. A Romanian-led multinational brigade will be formed. Work continues on additional defensive measures in the air and at sea, even as the organization seeks additional dialogue with Moscow. Stoltenberg emphasized that NATO is “constantly looking into what more we can do with Ukraine to strengthen our partnership…” He met with President Poroshenko to implement a “substantial package” to increase cooperation.

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According to the Secretary General, “NATO-EU cooperation is now closer than it has ever been,” particularly in countering hybrid threats, enhancing cyber security and coordinating exercises.

Stoltenberg addressed the ongoing discussions about the creation of a European army. He noted “The message is that this is not about creating an alternative to NATO, but this is about strengthening the European pillar inside NATO. …The only thing we have to avoid is that when Europe starts to strengthen its defences it is done in a way which is complimentary to NATO, not competing with NATO… Let me also add that, this is in one way obvious, because we have to remember that especially after Brexit, EU is important but, compared to the rest of NATO, especially when you take into account United States, of course NATO has capabilities and strength which is not covered by the European Union. Eighty percent of NATO’s defence spending will come from non-EU allies after Brexit, eighty percent and three out of four battalions which we are going to deploy to the eastern part of the alliance, to the Baltic countries and Poland, will be led by non-EU allies. So it goes in a way of the United Kingdom, after Brexit, Canada and the United States. So I think it’s obvious that we cannot decouple European security from North America and we cannot decouple the security of the European Union members from the rest of Europe…”

Turning to NATO’s largest member, the United States, Stoltenberg said: “I welcome the incoming Administration in Washington… I look forward to working with President-elect Donald Trump. The partnership between Europe and the United States has been rock-solid for almost 70 years. A partnership that has always received bi-partisan support in the United States. And better burden-sharing will make the transatlantic bond even stronger. I had the pleasure of speaking to President-elect Donald Trump…and he expressed very strong support for the NATO alliance and he expressed a strong commitment on continued strong NATO or US support for the NATO alliance and US support for the security of Europe and collective defence. So, I look forward to work with him and I’m absolutely certain that also with the new Administration, we will have an Administration in the United States which is absolutely committed to the NATO alliance and he also stated, as he has stated in the election campaign, that he will strengthen further US defence capabilities and increase defence spending. But, of course, he also pointed out during the election campaign and in the phone call he and I had on Friday, the importance of increased defence spending among European allies, and that’s something I absolutely…understand…we have decided, we have pledged, that we will stop the cuts and increase and aim at two percent within the decade…”

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.