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Understanding Iran’s Military Power and Outlook, Part 2

The Defense Intelligence Agency has just released a comprehensive analysis of Iran’s military power. The New York Analysis of Policy and Government continues its provision of key excerpts.

Iran’s Military Doctrine and Strategy

Tehran employs a complex set of military and security capabilities, including a combination of conventional and unconventional forces. Iran’s conventional military strategy is primarily based on deterrence and the ability to retaliate against an attacker. Its unconventional warfare operations and network of militant partners and proxies enable Tehran to advance its interests in the region and attain strategic depth from its adversaries. If deterrence fails, Iran would seek to demonstrate strength and resolve, impose a high cost on its adversary, and reestablish deterrence using the full range of these capabilities. 

Iran’s “way of war” emphasizes the need to avoid or deter conventional conflict while advancing its security objectives in the region, particularly through propaganda, psychological warfare, and proxy operations. Iran’s deterrence is largely based on three core capabilities: ballistic missiles capable of long-range strikes, naval forces capable of threatening navigation in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, and unconventional operations using partners and proxies abroad.

Perceptions of Modern Conflict

During the past two decades, Iran has gradually shifted its military thinking and approach to warfare based on the 21st-century conflicts of the Middle East. It developed its military doctrine to face technologically advanced Western militaries, aiming to raise the human and financial costs to a potential adversary to deter an attack. Iran has sought to build its armed forces with niche capabilities emphasizing asymmetric tactics intended to exploit the perceived weaknesses of its enemies, such as an aversion to casualties and overreliance on technology.

Iran probably views modern warfare as a spectrum with multiple levels of conflict, including “soft” and “hard” war. Iranian decisionmakers realize the importance of engaging an adversary in competition short of armed conflict across all domains of state power: diplomacy with neighboring states and international bodies; information and psychological operations; conventional and unconventional military posture and presence; and economics through its ability to influence global energy markets. Tehran believes the United States is engaged in a hybrid war to subvert the regime and its objectives, blending conventional and unconventional tactics with all elements of state power. Iran views this situation as short of armed conflict.

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Military and Security Leadership

The regime often views political, cultural, and social dynamics as national security issues because these domains can affect the regime’s ability to maintain clerical rule. Iran’s power structures and decisionmaking bodies reflect this clerical oversight in all aspects of military and security policy. Supreme Leader Khamenei, Iran’s head of state since 1989, is the ultimate decisionmaker in the Iranian political system. Khamenei is responsible for delineating and supervising “the general policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” accord- ing to the Iranian constitution, giving him the authority to direct all of Iran’s domestic and foreign policies. As commander in chief, the supreme leader can declare war or peace. He has the power to appoint and dismiss military offi- cials and the head of the judiciary, and appoints 6 of the 12 members of the Council of Guardians, which vets Iranian legislation and candidates for public office.

President Ruhani is a pragmatic conservative cleric who serves as the popularly elected head of government. The president oversees the cabinet ministries, manages the budgetary process, and chairs the Supreme Council for National Security (SCNS). However, the Iranian constitution limits the authority of the president, who has no operational control of the military and can operate only within the boundaries set by the supreme leader. 

National Military Command and Control

Iran’s constitution designates the supreme leader, not the president, as commander in chief of the armed forces, with the power to exercise military C2, declare war and peace, and approve military operations. Khamenei traditionally issues orders through the AFGS and KCHQ, which oversee and coordinate between the IRGC and Artesh, but sometimes bypasses these organizations to give orders directly to lower-level commanders.

The Report Concludes Tomorrow

Photo: Remains of a Shaheh-123 unmanned aerial vehicle are part of a display at Joint Base Anacostia-Bolling in Washington, D.C. The Defense Department established the Iranian Materiel Display in December 2017 to present evidence that Iran is arming dangerous groups with advanced weapons, spreading instability and conflict in the region. The display contains materiel associated with Iranian proliferation into Yemen, Afghanistan and Bahrain. DOD photo by Lisa Ferdinando