Conclusion of two part forecast of the U.S. economy
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reports optimism among its members. “12 percent of small business owners have faith their business conditions will be ‘much better’ in the next six months (up from the 9 percent who said the same earlier this year), showing that despite sales numbers, owners still retain a positive outlook… ‘It is encouraging to see many businesses improving their outlook about the future, after a brief dip in confidence earlier this year,’ said Buck Stinson, SVP of Small Business Card at Capital One. While concerns related to costs and regulations still exist, we are glad to see that optimism is on the rise…”
The NFIB has blamed regulatory overload as a key reason why so many small businesses have been pessimistic during the Obama Administration. “The uncertainty caused by future regulation negatively affects a small business’ ability to plan for future growth. While regulation is necessary, it must be pragmatic and sensible. Agencies need to carefully analyze how their regulations affect small businesses. At the same time, federal regulators should work with small businesses to help ensure compliance with the spirit of the law, rather than aggressively impose fines and penalties for violations that result from confusion…Since January 2009, ‘government requirements and red tape’ has been a top-three problem for small business owners, per NFIBs monthly Small Business Economic Trends survey. According to the 2012 NFIB Small Business Problems and Priorities report ‘unreasonable government regulations’ ranks fifth on the measures of small business problem importance. Within the small business problem clusters identified by the Small Business Problems and Priorities report ‘regulations’ rank second behind taxes. There are 3,297 federal regulations in the pipeline, waiting for implementation, according to the Administration’s fall 2015 regulatory agenda. About 10 new regulations are finalized every day, according to data on regulations.gov, adding to the volumes of rules small business owners must comply with.”
CNBC notes: “One thing is for sure: for many on Main Street, the notion of deregulation is welcome. Nonpartisan advocacy groups say a Trump presidency may spark new, important discussions about how regulations impact the country’s smallest businesses.”
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“Many of our nation’s laws give broad discretion to federal regulators to force sweeping change over vast swaths of the American economy. Over the last 15 years, we have seen fundamental overhauls of major economic sectors: the 2002 Sarbanes-Oxley financial services “reform” law, the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, and restrictions on affordable energy sources. For those Americans who are struggling financially, the need for regulatory reform has never been greater. Instead of chipping away at the margins, CEI believes we need substantial reforms that rein in federal bureaucrats so that our economy, and ultimately American consumers, businesses, and entrepreneurs, can benefit and make real progress toward prosperity…While every year Congress passes just a few dozen laws, federal regulatory agencies issue more than 3,000 regulations—but lawmaking by the unelected does not end there.
“Agencies also issue thousands of guidance documents, interpretive bulletins, notices, memoranda, proclamations, and even blog posts that carry regulatory force, but do not go through the formal rulemaking process. Trump should insist upon congressional affirmation of rules, guidance, and other agency proclamations likely to have significant economic impact, or that are otherwise controversial. Unfortunately, the current watchdog gives the regulatory state little to fear. The White House Office of Management and Budget’s (OMB) Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) reviews only a fraction of rules and often misses deadlines. That could change if Trump makes the most of his promised regulatory moratorium and toughens review and analysis of regulations. Trump could boost audits and cost analysis dramatically via executive order and work with Congress to bring now-exempt independent agencies into the fold. The following are three actions President-elect Trump should take to rein in America’s regulatory state.”
CEI recommends strengthening regulatory oversight by executive order, expanding executive restrictions over agency guidance documents, memoranda and other “regulatory dark matter,” and working with congress to implement a pro-growth agenda.