Trump Seeks to Restore U.S. Leadership in Space, Part 2

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government continues its examination of the changes President Trump is bringing to America’s role in space.

In sharp contrast to Obama’s disdain for the U.S. space program, President Trump, who mentioned the importance of space in his inaugural address, has followed President Jefferson’s example. In a White House speech, he noted that “”America will always be the first in space…”We don’t want China and Russia and other countries leading us. We’ve always led…My administration is reclaiming America’s heritage as the world’s greatest space-faring nation.”

Mr. Trump’s space emphasis extends to military, scientific and commercial space endeavors. He has ordered the Pentagon to create a new branch of the armed services devoted strictly to outer space. He has directed that the regulatory processes that have placed red-tape barriers to the commercialization of rocket launches and extraterrestrial exploration to be removed. And he has reset NASA’s budget away from earth science and towards exploration.

On May 24, 2018, the President signed Space Policy Directive – 2 to reform United States commercial space regulatory framework, seeking to ensure our place as a leader in space commerce. On March 23, 2018, President Trump unveiled a National Space Strategy that laid out an approach to ensuring that the United States is strong and competitive in the space environment. On December 11, 2017, the President signed Space Policy Directive – 1, instructing NASA to return United States astronauts to the Moon, followed by human missions to Mars. On June 30 2017, President Trump signed an Executive Order reviving the National Space Council for the first time in 24 years.

The importance of space technology cannot be overemphasized. Indeed, the future existence of humanity may well depend upon it. In June, the White House unveiled the “National Near-Earth Object Preparedness Strategy and Action Plan.”

“The National Near-Earth Object Preparedness Strategy and Action Plan (Strategy and Action Plan) will improve our Nation’s preparedness to address the hazard of near-Earth object (NEO) impacts over the next 10 years. Its primary role is to help organize and coordinate NEO-related efforts within Federal Departments and Agencies,with a particular focus on efforts that are already existing and resourced. It seeks to leverage and enhance existing assets and capabilities—National and international, public and private—to effectively manage the risks associated with NEOs. The Strategy and Action Plan builds on efforts by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and Department of Energy (DOE) to detect and characterize the NEO population and to prevent and respond to NEO impacts on Earth.

“Five strategic goals, each supported by a set of strategic objectives and specific associated actions, underpin the effort to enhance the Nation’s preparedness for potential NEO impacts:
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Goal 1: Enhance NEO Detection, Tracking, and Characterization Capabilities: NASA will lead the development of a roadmap for improving national capabilities for NEO detection, tracking, and characterization. Supporting actions will reduce current levels of uncertainty and aid in more accurate modeling and more effective decision-making.

Goal 2: Improve NEO Modeling, Prediction, and Information Integration: Agencies will coordinate the development of validated modeling tools and simulation capabilities that aid in characterizing and mitigating NEO impact risks while streamlining data flows to support effective decision-making.

Goal 3: Develop Technologies for NEO Deflection and Disruption Missions: NASA will lead development of technologies for fast-response NEO reconnaissance missions and timely missions to deflect or disrupt hazardous NEOs. Developing these technologies before an imminent threat arises will strengthen our ability to prevent NEO impact disasters.

Goal 4: Increase International Cooperation on NEO Preparation: Agencies will work to inform and develop international support for addressing global NEO impact risks. International engagement and cooperation will help the Nation to prepare more effectively for a potential NEO impact.

Goal 5: Strengthen and Routinely Exercise NEO Impact Emergency Procedures and Action Protocols: The United States will strengthen and exercise procedures and protocols for assessing NEO threats, communication regarding threats, and response and recovery activities. Coordinated communications and notifications within the U.S. Government and with foreign governments will improve impact emergency preparedness and reduce the physical and economic harm to the Nation.”

The Report Concludes Tomorrow.

Illustration: NASA photo of an asteroid.

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.