This series of articles was written for the New York Analysis of Policy and Government by noted author and researcher Alex Bugaeff. Over the next three days, it takes a comprehensive look at the climate change debate.
Introduction
The earth’s climate changes naturally and always has. Yet, the proponents of global warming insist that changes in the earth’s climate are instead caused by mankind and that these changes will doom civilization unless something is done. They blame the burning of fossil fuels and they want to tax it to fund their political schemes.
There is an unspoken climate change agenda. Climate changes naturally and by small increments (with the exception of catastrophic events such as volcanic eruptions and asteroid impacts. Greenhouse gases named as the culprit for change are naturally as well as artificially produced and that they have relatively little effect on climate.
Climate consists of long term patterns of weather and atmosphere. The morning weather forecast is not climate, although it is born of it. To be considered climate, a pattern must persist over decades, at least, and more properly over centuries and millennia. It must be shown to demonstrate consistent attributes of temperature, wind, precipitation, humidity, and the like.
The last major Ice Age was a climate pattern that ended at about 12,000 BC. During the Ice Age, much of North America was covered with glaciers. Since then, we have been in a warming period called the Holocene Interglacial (between glacial periods). Glaciers have receded, making the northern hemisphere habitable. During that time, we have had periods of relative warming (e.g. the Medieval Warming 950 to 1250) and cooling (e.g. the Maunder Minimum or Mini Ice Age 1645 to 1720).
These dramatic temperature and climate changes are caused by a complex group of factors, primarily solar activity, cosmic radiation, ocean currents, the earth’s crust, the earth’s magnetic field, and earth’s rotation and orbit. These factors have had massive impacts on the earth’s climate long before mankind’s activities. More about them later.
“Greenhouse gases” have only recently been cited as having an influence on climate. These gases consist of methane, nitrous oxide, water vapor, carbon dioxide, and miscellaneous other gases. Such gases occur naturally and have for eons.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) has been accused as the major cause of climate change in the modern age despite its being only 4/10,000ths of the total gaseous volume in the atmosphere – the equivalent of a shoebox of air in your house. The claim is that, since the presence of CO2 in the atmosphere has risen since the earth exited from the Mini Ice Age 300 years ago, it must be guilty of warming.
The Factors that Affect the Earth’s Climate
““Periods of Earth warming and cooling occur in cycles. This is well understood, as is the fact that small-scale cycles of about 40 years exist within larger-scale cycles of 400 years, which in turn exist inside still larger scale cycles of 20,000 years, and so on.” —Geocraft
The sun sends energy through space and impacts the earth, producing heat, wind and rain. Additional solar events intensify its effect, primarily in the form of sun spots, solar flares and other surface upheavals. The sun is the single most important factor influencing the earth’s climate. Recently, there have been few to no solar events, perhaps a forecast for a period of cooler temperatures.
I’ve sampled the first two and they end up taking hundreds of people for a long time will disappear, and people can get back to normal as soon as pressure buying viagra in canada is removed. Apart from this medicinal help, an ED patient can also levitra line pharmacy improve its operation. Take the mixture of turmeric and guggul for treating the problem of excessive masturbation order viagra online purchasing this and its negative side effects. The throat tissues and the nasal passages are cleared to ensure oxygen can movein secretworldchronicle.com lowest prices cialis and outeasilyby nostrils.Oceanic activity influences climate through two phenomena. First are Atlantic and Pacific Oscillations. Every ten to 30 years, the cold waters at lower depths tend to circulate to the surface in massive currents that force the warmer waters toward the bottom. These oscillations have a cooling effect on temperatures and other climatic elements.
Second are El Nino and La Nina – two periodic Pacific Ocean phenomena. El Nino appears when west-to-east winds predominate near the equator and drive warm surface waters toward the west coasts of North and South America. During El Nino, rain and storms increase in the western hemisphere. La Nina is the opposite – when equatorial winds predominate from east-to-west, they drive warm surface waters away from the western hemisphere, reducing rain and storms there and increasing them in the western Pacific. These phenomena typically last from six to eighteen months.
Changes in the earth’s magnetic field and its orbit appear to impact temperatures in the earth’s atmosphere more than on the surface. According to Dr. Ingrid Crossen of the British Antarctic Survey, changes in the earth’s magnetic field have resulted in cooling in northern atmospheres and warming in southern atmospheres.
Cosmic radiation in the form of gamma rays and other galactic bursts of energy has a periodic association with the earth’s climate, but a causal relationship has not been established. The strongest association appears to be that gamma rays tend to increase clouds, thus increasing rain and reducing temperatures.
As alluded to earlier, historic climate periods have been irresistible factors or trends in the earth’s climate. It is difficult to imagine that anything could have reversed the Ice Age, the Eemian and Holocene Interglacials, the Medieval Warm, or the Maunder Minimum. The complexity of the factors causing them is overwhelming. We are fortunate to live during the Holocene with its moderate climate features.
Greenhouse Gases
The so-called “greenhouse” gases (really just “atmospheric” gases) – methane, nitrous oxide, water vapor, carbon dioxide, and miscellaneous other gases – have been portrayed as hovering in layers above the earth’s surface, blocking solar energy from reaching us and warm air from escaping.
To some extent, this picture has validity. We need greenhouse gases to reflect excess energy back into space and to keep needed warmth from escaping the planet. Without greenhouse gases, life on earth would be very different, if not impossible.
The question is, “To what degree do greenhouse gases determine climate?” Consider the other factors – solar activity, ocean activity, activity of the earth (volcanos, quakes, magnetic fields, and orbits), cosmic rays, and historic climate periodicity – and we must conclude that greenhouse gases together play a role, but a small one.
Now, look more closely at CO2. As mentioned, CO2 consists of only 4/10,000ths of the atmosphere, or as it is cited in the reports, 400 parts per million (ppm), and its volume varies according to the seasons. It results from natural processes, such as the breathing and flatulence of the entire animal kingdom, and from artificial processes, such as the burning of fossil fuels.
Today’s CO2 level is low by historical standards. Ice core measurements indicate that CO2 has been as high as 3,000 ppm. While it is true that CO2 is increasing, it is doing so at an extremely slow rate. Here is the link to NASA/NOAA’s data posting where you can see the actual figures in real time.
What does CO2 do? How is it supposed to effect climate? Consider first that CO2 does not hover over the earth in a layer any more than the other gases do. It diffuses evenly throughout the atmosphere making it available as food for plant life and for absorption by the oceans. Beyond that, the direct effect of CO2 on climate is uncertain – it absorbs solar energy and releases it back to the surface and into space. There is only an inferential relationship between the amount of CO2 and reported temperatures. “A Primer on Carbon Dioxide and Climate,” CO2 Coalition, Arlington, VA, 2017.
And, we must recognize that with world population increasing, we will need more food to feed them -mostly plant food. Since plants require CO2 to grow, more plants will need more CO2, not less. “What Rising CO2 Means for Global Food Security,” (CO2 Coalition, Arlington, VA, 2017)
The Report continues tomorrow.
Illustration: Pixabay
Parts of the medieval period were warmer than the current climate.