The Russo-Chinese Strategic Relationship

Every four years, following a presidential election, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) publishes a report “to help policymakers… see what may lie beyond the horizon and [to] prepare for an array of possible futures.” It typically contains good indications and analysis on how the intelligence community (IC) views future concerns and major challenges the US may face in the coming decades.

Given China’s fast rise to power, and the complex challenges its foreign and military policies present, one would expect the ODNI to give it critical attention and assign its most experienced analysts to the project. In the interest of “inclusion,” the 156-page, 7^th edition of the “Global Trends: A More Contested World 2040” report published in March states that it sought input from DC high school students, civil society organizations in Africa, and environmental groups in South America. Perhaps, it is time Washington and the American public recognize that the Russo-Chinese strategic relationship may be one of the greatest tests for the Biden Administration and one of the greatest risks to US national interests.

Aggressive Chinese moves in the South China Sea toward Taiwan are happening while simultaneously Russian President Putin is “racheting up” tensions with the Ukraine by forward positioning large numbers of Russian troops along their shared border. China and Russia both are escalating their state of military readiness and making provocative moves in sensitive areas over the last week. Whether this will result in outright invasions, small border incursions, or little more than a small border skirmish remains an unknown. It looks like something is going to happen. The significant question that Washington needs to address is if these moves do represent a coordinated effort by Moscow and Beijing, what is the potential impact for US national interests.

William J. Burns, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, testified before the US Senate Intelligence Committee last week “That [Russian] buildup has reached the point that it could provide the basis for a limited military incursion,” and “It is something not only the United States, but our allies have to take very seriously.” The Biden Administration does not have a strategy in place today to handle a simultaneous conflict. It should not come as surprise to American military planners. Last October when questioned about a possible joint military effort President Putin responded to a reporter: “Theoretically it is quite possible.” At the end of December, on the same day Chinese President Xi signed a comprehensive European Union trade deal seven years in the making, he responded to Putin by calling him his “best friend” and stated that he will work “unswervingly” to develop stronger “strategic cooperation between China and Russia [that] can effectively resist any attempt to suppress and divide the two countries.”

Impotence is basically an issue that makes the person feel exhausted and tense. cialis line order Online Availability of Sildenafil Made Treatment cialis prices Convenient According to a recent survey in US most of divorce cases are filed by females who are unsatisfied with their relation as their partners fail to give any time to their personal life. Some people just choose to live with the problem and also viagra store for a better life. A common symptom of this condition is headaches but it can also involve infection or tumors. viagra in australia

Gabriel Gavin, writing in “The Diplomat” earlier this year suggested: “As convenient as friendly relations between the Kremlin and Zhongnanhai are, the threat that ties could run deeper in the face of political and economic conflict is their powerful attribute. If Moscow is forced to export less gas to Europe, it will export more to China. If Beijing feels naval tensions with the United States are rising in the South China Sea, greater coordination with the Russian fleet in the Sea of Japan is always an option.

During the last two weeks Putin has amassed over 40,000 Russian troops along the Ukrainian border. In the past week alone China flew 25 warplanes into Taiwan’s airspace. In total in 2020 China flew more than 250 sorties over Taiwan. Twenty-five planes in seven days represents an escalation on Beijing’s part. What is next? President Biden’s response was to call President Putin to say he doesn’t want to escalate tensions and get into a conflict with the communist giants. Without Biden’s full foreign policy leadership team in place, Putin and Xi Jinping have the advantage on the global chess board. The final question is, will the communist partners make the move and declare checkmate on the United States.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

Our Latest Television Program

New Era in World Affairs

There will be a dramatic change in Washington in the aftermath of the election. What will this mean for America’s national security and foreign affairs? Our guests, former CIA officer and Vice President at the Center for Security Policy Clair Lopez, along with ret. Col. John Mills, (author of The Nation Will Follow) provide extraordinary insights. If you missed the program on your local station, catch it here: https://rumble.com/v5oonnb-the-american-political-zone-november-12-2024.html