America remains the strongest nation on earth but is no longer able to act unilaterally throughout the world without the support of other nations. A rising China, backed by a belligerent Russia, along with terrorism, a long global supply chain, demographic changes, and a number of other factors, contribute to America’s need for multilateral diplomacy to stabilize the international community. What large power will the US work within the distant future? Some analysts in Washington are suggesting a surprising answer may appear viable in a decade or so.
If China can avoid a complicated series of economic, political, and demographic traps it faces in the next few years, it will continue its rise toward global hegemony. A world run by Xi Jinping and the CCP would be devoid of the human values treasured in the West, ethical business practices, and the guidelines ensuring our current international rules-based system works. It does not look like an American turn toward an aggressive China is the best answer. Where will Washington look for partners? Europe already is aligned with the US and remains divided and weak, although their regional economic strength, in total, is considerable. Analysts are suggesting this may mean that the United States will need to play the “Russia card” in a distant, post-Putin future.
Examining current internal Russian politics, its economic conditions, and the state’s military status leaves much uncertainty if this could be a viable possibility over the horizon. The country is run by an authoritarian leader and his supporting actors, the military and corrupt business oligarchs. Russia’s military, while not equal to that of the United States’, is making strides toward modernization and nuclear parity. Putin views the United States as his nation’s primary competitor and probably, more accurately stated, its greatest national security threat. Russia has a long history of being overrun on both its eastern and western borders. Ralph Benko wrote in Forbes in 2017 that: “The Russian ‘suspicion foible’ is well grounded in history. It’s not just that the Russian Federation is vastly outnumbered and outspent. Russia has been invaded by Western European powers three times in contemporary history: once by Sweden, in 1707, once by France, in 1812, and once by Germany, in 1941.” Seven hundred years earlier Mongol warriors to the east took vast amounts of Russian territory and ruled it for over 300 years. Fear of invasion from over the border, rightly so, is built into the Russian mindset.
The Russian oligarchs are strong, and Putin knows that to maintain power he must take them into consideration when formulating his policy. He keeps them pacified by looking the other way at their illegal activities and abuses of the economic system. While an alignment with Washington is highly unlikely under Putin, it presents an interesting exercise in forecasting future events. Several actions must precede any change in Russia’s partnerships.
From Moscow’s perspective, Russia must see it as advantageous to its national security and global status to side with the democratic West. That is not a reality in 2021. From US and European views, Russia first must commit to Western economic, human rights, and political standards and practices that don’t exist currently in the country. Putin knows China will be dependent on Russian energy, AI, and missile technology for about ten more years. That gives him a decade-long window of economic opportunity to exploit. In that time he knows he must tamp down domestic social unrest to build a military strong enough to defend against incursions and provide him a seat at the table among other global leaders. He is making the most of the situation by selling China vast amounts of his country’s oil, natural gas, AI, and military technology. Putin is using those funds to finance upgrades to Russia’s military in fulfillment of his dream to recreate the glory of the Russian empire of the past. What happens, however, after 2030 when China no longer needs Russia’s technology?
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Does this leave open the possibility of a global realignment of major powers in another decade? Michael McFaul, of the Hoover Institution, says that “Given Russia’s rich human capital endowments, Russia is underperforming. Russia should be one of the technological centers of the world; a second Silicon Valley. But so far, that potential has not been realized… Politics are to blame.” He argues that the evidence suggests Russia cannot follow the Chinese model of economic development. To counterbalance China, Russia may find itself needing to play the “American card” more than the US needs to play the “Russia card.”
Photo: Russian generals (Russian Defence Ministry)
DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Thursday, she presents key updates on Russia.