Over the years Russian President Vladimir Putin has proved himself a chameleon capable of effectively manipulating his political environment at home and shaping the global media’s coverage of him to obtain his strategic objectives for Russia. So, how do we interpret Putin’s meeting last week with President Joe Biden? Reports coming out of Geneva portray Putin as off message, speaking softly, sounding weak, and rambling. According to analyst Kevin Baron of Defense One, “He looked thoroughly disconnected from his own myth.” Perhaps, the question Washington needs to ask now is “Are we being led down a false path again or is Putin truly a fading dictator standing alone in what appears to be a world unifying against both the Russia and Chinese threat?”
While other dictators in crumbling regimes may stick with Putin, they do so only to receive Russian protection and meager military handouts. Putin knows they are not loyal to him, but only to the supply of goods and money that keep them in power. At home he has to contend with Russian organized crime figures involved in illicit cyber activities and over which he has limited control. Putin also recognizes that there is a narrow window of opportunity for continuing lucrative AI and military sales to China, which Moscow desperately needs to support its military modernization program.
The Putin-Biden meeting ended early, lasting just over three hours. According to Biden, he said the two leaders will look back at the issues discussed in about three to six months to see if any progress has been made. Topics reported under discussion included cyber security, election interference, Ukraine, Afghanistan, and arms control. “I’m not sitting here saying because the president and I agreed that we would do these things that all of a sudden it’s going to work,” Biden said. There were 16 cyber critical infrastructure sectors that he asked Putin not to attack. A senior Biden Administration official called these “destructive” sites versus those typical associated with intelligence gathering. The question analysts in Washington are asking is, ‘Did President Biden just give tacit approval for Russia’s President to attack other sites?’ Does that mean the US will not respond to Russian hacking outside of those areas listed? President Biden did not receive a response from Putin. Instead, it appears he was simply given a cyber roadmap for how far Russia can penetrate the United States without pushback from Washington. Any success in the future may be attributed more to G7 countries and NATO leaders unifying in their opposition to Russian aggression.
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It is likely the Russian President felt little need to expend much energy during the Biden meeting, as the American President is not known to be strong or adept at handling facts. In referring to how Putin responded to Biden’s off-limits cyber list, Keir Giles, a Russia expert with the London-based Chatham House think tank, said: “There’s no indication at all that he actually went along with it.” When President Obama, in 2015, made a similar request of Chinese leader Xi Jinping, China agreed and then reneged as the hacking cases continued unabated. A common aphorism among Communist leaders is that is not lying if the person with whom you are speaking is not a communist. Did Putin just play Biden? The mainstream media in America will protect Biden at all costs. Only time will tell if the Geneva meeting was a success.
Photo: Vladimir Putin official picture (Russian Government)