THE NEW START TREATY

   A major flaw is the less stringent verification procedures.  As noted by the Congressional Research Service‘s February 14, 2012 report, The U.S. will no longer maintain a monitoring presence outside the Votinsk facility where Russia assembles its mobile ICBMs, which may weaken the U.S. ability to count these missiles as they enter Russia’s forces.  CRS also notes that the United States and Russia will no longer exchange telemetry data on all their ballistic missile flight tests, which, over time, could lessen the U.S. ability to understand and evaluate the capabilities of Russian ballistic missiles.

   New START also lacks some needed restrictions on mobile ICBMs, which only Russia fields.  At the same time, New START makes a major concession to Moscow in its statement on missile defense.  The CRS report outlines that the treaty “recognize[s] “the existence of the interrelationship between strategic offensive arms and strategic defensive arms, that this interrelationship will become more important as strategic nuclear arms are reduced, and that current strategic defensive arms do not undermine the viability and effectiveness of the strategic offensive arms of the parties.”

   Critics of New Start, including Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC) have pointed out that the treaty allows Russia to continue its 10 to 1 advantage in tactical nuclear weapons; reduces America’s ability to deploy missile defense, and allows Russia to modernize its nuclear weapons while the US remains idle.

The Administration’s extremely optimistic view of Russia’s nuclear ambitions was further evidenced by the August 14 report of the International Security Advisory Board (ISAB), a federal advisory committee established to guide the State Department.  It emphasizes President Obama’s goal to move towards “very low numbers” of nuclear weapons and the road to their total elimination.  Among the ISAB’s recommendations:

“Change U.S. doctrine and posture away from defining our nuclear posture based on perception of Russia as the primary threat, toward a doctrine of general deterrence, a posture in which attacks from any direction are discouraged without singling out a particular adversary or enemy (reciprocal action required.)”

The ISAB also recommends ending trade restrictions between the two nations, including those enacted under the Jackson-Vanik bill, which imposed restrictions based on the USSR’s policy of hampering Jewish immigration.  (The trend in Congress, however, may be in the opposite direction.  Under the proposed “Sergei Magnitsky Rule of Law Accountability Act,” Washington would both deny visas and freeze the assets of Russians who engage in human rights abuses such as that imposed on Magnitsky, who was imprisoned for exposing official corruption.  He was beaten to death while in jail in 2009.)

   Some of Putin’s actions seem difficult to justify even from a Russian nationalist perspective.  As disputes with Moslem nationalist groups from Chechnya, who have engaged in substantial terrorist acts (including airport and metro station bombings.  The Hudson Institute‘s David Satter, writing in Canada’s National Post, notes that “the number of terrorist incidents grew six-fold between 2000 and 2009, to 738 from 135, and Moscow remains the only European capital to be hit repeatedly by terrorists.”) within Russia continue, Putin provides aid to Iran’s nuclear program, running the risk of eventually arming Chechnyan groups with nuclear material.

   Some observers have taken to calling the Putin regime “a mafia state,” run for the enrichment of the leadership and not for the benefit of either the nation or its population.

   Russia’s intensive drive to develop a navy that could pose a threat to the United States will be strengthened by President Putin’s pledge to spend $138 billion on his maritime force.  Former President Yeltsin had rejected the need for such a force,  according to the Jamestown Foundation. However, the Kremlin today has a different perspective, deeply reminiscent of the first cold war.  In addition to the building of new ships, it is purchasing two French built Mistral class amphibious assault helicopter carrier vessels with state of the art equipment.

  To accommodate the refurbished fleet, Moscow’s vice admiral Viktor Chirkov  is seeking additional bases outside of the former USSR around the world, in Cuba, Vietnam, and the Seychelles to add to its current base in Syria.  In addition, Eurasia Daily Monitor reports that Putin has promised to build new naval bases in the Arctic, and Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev promises that naval infrastructure hubs will be developed along the Northern Sea route.

   Russia joined the 2012 RIMPAC international naval exercises near Hawaii, and the Voice of Russia publication recounted how Moscow’s marines practiced landing on a US warship.

   The $723 billion modernization program includes providing up to 1,700 new warplanes, according to RT news.   This year, the Russian Air Force will get Su-35 and Su-30 jet fighters and Mi and Ka-52 Alligator helicopters,  according to a Voice of Russia report. In 2013, new air defense missile batteries will be delivered–a real irony, given Moscow’s vehement objections to US ABMs.

  Igor Korotchenko, chief editor of Russia’s National Defense magazine recently noted in the Voice of Russia publication:

“New aviation training centers are being set up now, the one already operating in Voronezh, where Russia`s future aviation engineers are offered everything they could ever need to succeed in their profession. The federal arms-related program suggests adopting 1,200 helicopters and over 500 planes by the year 2020.”

   According to Voice of Russia, “Mr. Korotchenko stressed that the way the national aviation is developing now cannot even be compared to how it was in the 1990s. Since the early 2000s the Russian army has adopted 92 Su-34 bombers, 48 multi-purpose Su-35 jets and over 100 fifth generation jets.The Sukhoi T-50 5th generation jet fighter is what the future of the Russian aviation is about. This is a unique aircraft which performed a demonstration flight during the air show in Zhukovsky. The jet`s radar system can spot and identify targets at the distance up to 400 km. Experts believe that T-50 will surpass America`s the F – 22 Raptor fighter jet. It means that the Russian military aviation is growing even stronger.”

   The environment for a return to a Soviet style brand of leadership includes repression at home.

   David Satter notes that “Twenty years after the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia is again in political crisis.” He describes a nation rife with corruption and lawlessness, its government ranked 154th out of 178 by Transparency International, “on a level with Cambodia and the Central African Republic.”

   Putin reclaimed the presidency in the May 7 election, which has been criticized as being rigged in his favor. His government has restricted public protests, prosecuted demonstrators, broken into the homes of opposition leaders, tightened controls on the internet and private organizations, and strong-armed the media.  Corruption has been extensive. A Jamestown Foundation study notes that “Putin’s presidential pool journalists never publicly ask the president unwanted or un-vetted questions.”

   A “Europe Online Magazine” report lists thirteen separate incidents since December 2011  in which Putin’s actions have prompted the ire of the Russian people, including irregularities in elections for parliament and the presidency.

   Most recently, a political trial involving the female rock group”Pussy Riot” sent the musical band to prison for two years.  Supporters of the musicians are said to be preparing an appeal to the European Court of Human Rights.  While awaiting the verdict outside the courtroom, Human Rights Foundation chairman and opposition political leader Garry Kasparov was severely beaten, apparently for nothing more than speaking with journalists about the case, as reported in the Wall Street Journal.

   Putin’s impulse to subjugate political opposition may extend even to Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, who was pressured to step aside from his former post as President to make way for Putin’s return. A Jamestown Foundation report notes that “After agreeing not to seek reelection for a second term as President and becoming Prime Minister last May, Medvedev has been visibly sidelined on the Moscow political scene and has been struggling to assert himself.”

   Putin’s determination to make Russia an unequaled nuclear power with an extraordinarily powerful conventional military has not been recognized or responded to by the United States, which continues to adhere to a mistaken belief that the Cold War is gone forever.