The Chinese Puzzle – USA Gov Policy

China is a dangerous and complex puzzle the democratic world must deal with in the coming years. Many in the West, upon hearing Chinese officials reference a “third child,” will assume the discussion concerns Beijing’s archaic population policy. In reality, officials are using the term today to reference China’s latest accomplishment… the upcoming launch of its third modern aircraft carrier. The ship, a Type 003 carrier, is being readied for its initial launch for sea trials, possibly as soon as this weekend. As the shipbuilders in Shanghai’s Jiangnan Yard prepare for the event, military analysts in Washington note that the ship will be the most advanced produced by China and contain electromagnetic catapult aircraft launchers to provide an extended strike range for its fighter jets. China’s first two carriers employed a ”ski ramp” style launch system which limited the amount of fuel and weapons jets could carry. The US maintains a qualitative advantage over China’s large maritime fleet; however, Beijing is closing the gap. Given recent annual increases in Chinese military spending, defense analysts expect China to advance beyond the US in many areas in the next few years. While the latest carrier is good military news for Xi Jinping, not all is not going well politically for China in the Indo-Pacific region.

Earlier this week in Fiji Chinese Foreign Affairs Minister Wang Yi, and other officials from Beijing negotiating a mutual trade and security agreement with 10 Pacific Island nations, failed to secure a deal. American Military News is reporting that during the Summit China attempted to bring together the Federated States of Micronesia, the Solomon Islands, Kiribati, Samoa, Fiji, Tonga, Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea, Niue, and Timor-Leste. Wang’s goal was thwarted when the independent countries refused to join a pact that included law enforcement and fishing cooperation along with port calls for PLAN security forces and ships. The United States also is countering China’s Indo-Pacific efforts by forming its own trade and diplomatic alliances and partnerships in the region. Recently several Pacific states signed the US-led Pacific Economic Framework (PEF), including Fiji, which had hosted China for the 10-country Summit.

Further south in the Pacific puzzle, Australia is holding elections for its Prime Minister. China is closely watching those events while simultaneously trying to infiltrate and control the public discourse to direct it away from Beijing’s previous attempts to influence Australian election results. According to John Garrick of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), Xi Jinping is an oligarch who seeks to forcefully influence international financial, legal, and trade systems. He argues that Xi’s dream of a national rejuvenation for China extends to “exerting global leadership and shaping international institutions to better reflect China’s great-power status.” This includes a desire to control Australia’s politics and economy at every level of society.

Domestically the puzzle is no less challenging for Xi Jinping. A major cache of internal reports recently leaked from the Xinjiang Police Department reveal an inside view of the environment and scale of Beijing’s secretive campaign interning almost 2 million Uyghurs and other minorities in northwestern China. The number of files exposed is mind-boggling. There are over 300,000 verified personnel records, more than 23,000 detainee files, and 2,884 images of detainees themselves. Adrian Zenz, an international expert on internal Chinese government documents and the Xinjiang internment campaign says they were hacked directly from Chinese police databases in two ethnic minority counties in Xinjiang. Zenz says this is the first time the world has a first-hand account of police operations from police computer centers. The records include statements and speeches by the former Xinjiang Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, who talks about the oppressive attitude of the Chinese government toward the Muslim minorities located in the region. He says the camps need to be defended and explains why the government has to move against the entire population. Xi Jinping will be challenged to explain these documents to a world already reeling from event in Ukraine.

China is both a complex and dangerous puzzle that no one is close to solving. It has strengths but also pervasive weaknesses and paranoia that could be exploited by the West. It may be time for democratic nations to use those weaknesses to teach China a lesson in how to behave as a responsible member in an international rules-based system.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department

Photo: Chinese aircraft carrier (China Defence Ministry)

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.