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Quick Analysis

THE CHINA MODEL: RETURN OF THE MIDDLE KINGDOM

The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission  has issued its annual report to Congress. The New York Analysis of Policy and Government will periodically present summaries of their work.

China sees itself as engaged in a systemic struggle with the United  States and other democratic countries over the future of the world order.  Beijing seeks to use its growing power to transform the international  order, ultimately legitimizing its repressive governance system; expanding  its economic, security, and political interests; and restoring China to  what it views as its rightful place at the center of the world. It desires  for other countries to accept if not praise its authoritarian, single-party  governance model as a superior alternative to liberal democracy and  seeks to export elements of its model, popularizing internationally the  norm that power, not rules-based accountability, is a legitimate basis  for political authority. The CCP hopes to remold global governance,  ultimately enabling China to act unconstrained by the current rules-based  order. These objectives predate General Secretary Xi’s rule and will likely  persist beyond it, posing a long-term challenge to U.S. interests, the  integrity of international institutions, and liberal democracy worldwide.  

The Chinese government is shaping and subverting the international  governance system to align with Beijing’s own principles, which are  directly opposed to universal values and individual rights. Beijing  uses economic leverage to secure other countries’ support for these  alternative values in the UN and other organizations while exploiting  leadership roles in UN agencies (see Figure 2) to promote Chinese  foreign policy objectives, such as marginalizing Taiwan. Meanwhile,  through a parallel order of alternative China-centric organizations,  including the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China is creating an  integrated economic and geopolitical order under China’s leadership.  Beijing seeks to use its central role in this new parallel order to exploit  globalization, using the networks and resources of other countries while  limiting access to its own market. It also uses its leverage to export  to developing countries elements of its economic model that threaten  private enterprise and rule of law in favor of a dominant state sector and  corrupt business environment. 

As part of its ambitions to shape global governance and become  the preeminent power, the CCP seeks to dominate development of  emerging technologies and ensure the norms and values for how these  technologies are deployed further its geopolitical goals. To do so, it aims  to establish China’s leadership in international standardization bodies  and export Chinese technical standards, the design features and product  specifications that allow different products to work together. Because  the Chinese government treats technical standards as a tool of industrial  policy and market access, China’s ambitions threaten to disrupt  organic industry-led innovation that has allowed the U.S. technological  ecosystem to thrive. Furthermore, China’s influence over information  and telecommunications technology, including connected technologies  used in surveillance and the building blocks of the internet, provide  like-minded authoritarian regimes with the tools to repress their own  populations, control information flows, and support China’s surveillance  and data collection programs. 

If Beijing succeeds in normalizing its views of governance, the result could  undermine individual rights around the world. Underestimating Beijing’s  intent to revise the international order based on its current capabilities  risks delaying a response until it is already too late to preserve the liberal  international order that has allowed the unprecedented flourishing of  human life and freedoms for the last three quarters of a century. 

Key Findings 

▶ The CCP seeks to revise the international order to be more amenable  to its own interests and authoritarian governance system. It desires  for other countries not only to acquiesce to its prerogatives but also to  acknowledge what it perceives as China’s rightful place at the top of a  new hierarchical world order. 

▶ The CCP’s ambitions for global preeminence have been consistent  throughout its existence: every CCP leader since Mao Zedong has  proclaimed the Party would ultimately prove the superiority of its  Marxist-Leninist system over the rest of the world. Under General  Secretary Xi, the Chinese government has become more aggressive  in pursuing its interests and promoting its model internationally.  

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▶ The CCP aims to establish an international system in which Beijing can  freely influence the behavior and access the markets of other countries  while constraining the ability of others to influence its behavior or  access markets it controls. The “community of common human  destiny,” the CCP’s proposed alternative global governance system, is  explicitly based on historical Chinese traditions and presumes Beijing  and the illiberal norms and institutions it favors should be the primary  forces guiding globalization.

▶ The CCP has attempted to use the novel coronavirus (COVID-19)  pandemic to promote itself as a responsible and benevolent global  leader and to prove that its model of governance is superior to liberal  democracy. Thus far, it appears Beijing has not changed many minds,  if any. Countries already skeptical of the CCP’s intentions argue it failed  to contain the virus where it originated and withheld information until it  was too late to avoid a global pandemic. Countries already predisposed  to view Beijing favorably have praised its pandemic response. 

▶ The Chinese government’s Belt and Road Initiative is both a blueprint  and a testbed for establishing a Sinocentric world order. The initiative  has no membership protocols or formal rules but is based on informal  agreements and a network of bilateral deals with China as the hub  and other countries as the spokes. This framework lets Beijing act  arbitrarily and dictate terms as the stronger party. 

▶ The CCP seeks to coopt established international governance  institutions by increasing its leadership and functionary positions  within these institutions and rewriting the norms by which they  operate to align with China’s model of international relations.  Within these institutions, the Party builds coalitions that support  China in the UN and portray its political priorities as supported by  international consensus. 

▶ In some cases, Beijing bypasses the existing system by creating  alternative international institutions it can influence from the start.  Where possible, it excludes the United States and European powers  from these institutions, and in some cases the United States  chooses not to participate. 

▶ The Chinese government views technical standards as a policy  tool to advance its economic and geopolitical interests. It has  systematically tried to expand its influence in international  standards-setting organizations by installing Chinese nationals in key  leadership and functionary positions and pushing standards backed  by its industrial policies.

Illustration: Pixabay