As the Middle East continues its descent into chaos, an overarching concern for western policymakers is the possibility of significant military action by Iran.
The Tehran regime’s “allegedly continuous cargo shipment to Yemen, for example, could potentially lead to the outbreak of military conflict either in the Persian Gulf or the Gulf of Aden, in particular near the rebel-held Yemeni”, according to the Jamestown Foundation. “There is also the risk of an increase in proxy wars between Iran and its Sunni Arab regional rivals.”
The Obama Administration has not demonstrated compentence in its handling of Middle Eastern affairs. Devastating strategic and tactical errors in endorsing the Moslem Brotherhood-led Arab Spring, the failed “Red Line” with Syria, failing to endorse Iran’s “Green Revolution,” it’s ineffectiveness in stopping ISIS, (indeed, its premature withdrawal from Iraq paved the way for the rise of ISIS) the alienation of Israel, the significant error of participating in the overthrow of Libya’s former government which allowed al Qaeda to expand its influence, all point to a historically misguided foreign policy.
Those examples are the reason observers doubt the Administration’s assessment that Iran will neither develop into a nuclear power and/or initiate significant conventional threats against both U.S. and regional forces.
In an interview with Thomas Friedman, President Obama stated that “Iran’s defense budget is $30 billion. Our defense budget is closer to $600 billion,” Obama tells Thomas Friedman. “Iran understands that they cannot fight us.”
The President displays an unfortunate ignorance of history in that response. Asymmetrical warfare tactics have provided victories to theoretically inferior forces from the American Revolution to Vietnam, particularly at a time when the U.S. defense budget is being slashed, American armed forces are a shadow of their Cold War strength, and the nation’s leadership clearly demonstrates a reluctance to engage in ground combat.
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“Today IRGCN operates over 1,500 small boats, which can be easily hidden in the coastal zone and do not need a large port to provide supplies. Most of these boats can be or already are equipped with short-range missiles and mines. An unexpected attack of a group of such boats can bring down almost any vessel that dares to enter Iranian waters. Iran’s forces are covered by an extensive network of coastal based anti-ship missiles and air-defense systems….
“Iran tends to keep its military equipment in fair condition, ready to be deployed where and when necessary. This was confirmed during Iran’s regular naval exercises. In many cases Iran used drills to test its new weaponry, such as the Ghadr medium-range ballistic missile. The success of the latest test-launches on January 3 made Iran’s navy chief, Admiral Habibollah Sayyari state that from then on the Strait of Hormuz would be completely in Iran’s control…Iran’s air force operates about 200 combat type aircraft, some 120 transport aircraft, and over 500 helicopters. The list of bases and airports operated by Iran’s military includes 14 tactical air force bases, 18 military air fields, and 22 civil airports that can be used for military purposes… Iran’s naval forces have a total of around 26 submarines, 4 frigates, 3 corvettes, 24 missile patrol craft, 7 mine warfare ships, and over 270 coastal and inshore patrol craft….Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs. Iran has created armed ballistic missile forces that are capable of striking at any US allies and US bases in the region. It is claimed that Iran has accumulated several thousand short- and medium-range mobile ballistic missiles. Iran’s ballistic missiles could also be configured to carry nuclear warheads if Iran can develop them.”
Iran Intelligence.com reports that”
“Iran has also upgraded its offshore capabilities. In November 2012, the Iranian Navy unveiled two new submarines and two missile-launching warships. Earlier, Iranian officials had said they planned to design nuclear-powered submarines, which could enable the navy to keep the subs on patrol for longer periods and distances.”
It should also be understood that while total U.S. strength is significantly greater than Iran’s, only a portion of that strength is available for use in the Middle East, with extended and potentially vulnerable supply lines far across the planet. Additionally, Iran’s forces are precisely tailored for the region in which fighting would occur, while the American military has global responsibilities.
The next New York Analysis reports will examine the potential of Iran engaging in direct assaults against the American homeland.