Six and one half years after the end of the “Great Recession,” the U.S. economy remains in the doldrums. Legitimate questions about the economic policies of the White House, and the apparent waste of over $720 million in “stimulus” funds, as well as the near doubling of the national debt, abound.
According to data from the World Bank America’s GDP growth rate in 2014 was 2.4%. In 2013, the Council on Foreign Relations noted that the “recovery” from the 2007-2008 recession was “the weakest of the post–World War II era.”
The Wall Street Journal concurs. “During the postwar period up to the current recession (1947-2007), the average annual growth rate for the U.S. was 3.4%. The last three decades have experienced somewhat slower growth than the earlier periods, but even in the period 1977-2007, the average growth rate was 3%… Contrast this weak growth with the recovery that followed the other large recession of recent decades. In the early 1980s, the economy experienced a double-dip recession, with contractions in both 1980 and ’82. But growth rates in the subsequent two years averaged almost 6%. The high growth that persisted throughout the 1980s brought the economy quickly back to the trend line. Unlike the current period, from 1983 on, the economy was in rapid catch-up mode and eventually regained all that had been lost during the early ’80s.
“Indeed, that was the expectation. As economist Victor Zarnowitz of the University of Chicago argued many years ago, the strength of the recovery is related to the depth of the recession. Big recessions are followed by robust recoveries, presumably because more idle resources are available to be tapped. Unfortunately, the current post-recession period has not followed the pattern.”
The Washington Post has noted that “it took less than a year for America’s factory output to rebound from the 1991 recession. It took 3½ years to bounce back from the 2001 recession. Now, six years clear of the Great Recession, manufacturing output still hasn’t returned to the pre-crisis levels it reached in 2007, according to revised economic data from the Federal Reserve. The downward revisions highlight the persistent weakness in a sector that President Obama has long called crucial to the health of the U.S. economy and the fate of the middle class. They track with the continued disappointing employment numbers for manufacturing, which since January 2013 has added fewer than half of the 1 million jobs that Obama promised the sector would create in his second term. And they appear to reflect a deeper-than-previously-thought hit to defense and aerospace manufacturing as the result of Pentagon cuts and deficit-reduction measures Obama and Congress agreed to several years ago.”
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According to the Institute for Supply Management, (ISM) Last month brought some disappointing statistics for the U.S. economy. In the Non-manufacturing business sector, activity decreased 4.8% in November. The New Orders Index fell 4.5 percentage points. The Employment Index decreased 4.2 percentage points. The Prices Index increased 1.2 percentage points. Five industries reporting a reduction in employment in November, including: Mining; Utilities; Other Services; Construction; and Management of Companies & Support Services.
The New Export Orders Index for November registered 49.5 percent, which is 5 percentage points lower than October. The latest balance of trade figures from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, released in September, disclosed that the goods and services deficit was $40.8 billion. Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $14.9 billion, or 3.9 percent, from the same period in 2014. Exports decreased $66.3 billion or 3.8 percent. Imports decreased $51.3 billion or 2.4 percent.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) also reports that “Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in November for the first time in 36 months, [decreasing] 1.5 percentage points from the October reading… The New Orders Index registered 48.9 percent, a decrease of 4 percentage points from the reading of 52.9 percent in October. The Production Index registered 49.2 percent, 3.7 percentage points below the October reading of 52.9 percent. The Employment Index registered 51.3 percent, 3.7 percentage points above the October reading of 47.6 percent. The Prices Index registered 35.5 percent, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points from the October reading of 39 percent, indicating lower raw materials prices for the 13th consecutive month. The New Export Orders Index registered 47.5 percent, unchanged from October, and the Imports Index registered 49 percent, up 2 percentage points from the October reading of 47 percent. Ten out of 18 manufacturing industries reported contraction in November, with lower new orders, production and raw materials inventories accounting for the overall softness in November…
“Of the 18 manufacturing industries, five are reporting growth in November in the following order: Printing & Related Support Activities; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Transportation Equipment. The 10 industries reporting contraction in November — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Primary Metals; Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products.”