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From Graduation to the Unemployment Line

May is graduation month for most colleges, and for all you successful scholars and your happy parents, congratulations.

But trouble lies ahead. The Economic Policy Institute   has just released a report that details the exceptionally difficult time graduates face in the weak American job market.

According to the study, “young college graduates face an unemployment rate of 8.5%, compared with 5.5% in 2007, and an underemployment rate of 16.8%, compared with 9.6% in 2007.” As bad as those statistics are, the actual situation is far worse. They don’t include a shocking number of our youth who are “missing” from the job market altogether, young people who have simply given up looking for work.  If these folks were included, the unemployment rate of would-be workers under 25 would reveal the devastating rate of 18.1%.

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The figures in this report and others like it are symptomatic of a significant wrong turn in the American economy and the focus of the federal government.  Particularly over the past five years, tax dollars have been used to increase programs such as food stamps, instead of creating conditions for business expansion and job growth.  Key federal endeavors that could have created employment opportunities for both private sector jobs and government employment as well have been passed over in favor of spending on pure entitlement programs.

Many analysts continue to wonder how, in a nation with an aging infrastructure and other dire needs, the President failed to find shovel-ready jobs. The $700 billion stimulus program funds had no affect other than to add to the federal deficit without creating any new economic opportunities.

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U.S. Employment Remains Crucially Low

Once again, widespread misreading of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) latest figures has produced the incorrect perception of an improving employment picture.

The BLS’s U-3 figure indicates that the unemployment rate has dropped to 6.3%, indicating a one year decline of about 1.2%.  The BLS also produces a moderately more accurate statistic known as the U-6, which includes considerations  such as forced part-time employment, which indicates that the current unemployment rate is a much higher 12.6%.  Neither figure reflects the actual extent of the employment crisis, since they neglect to reflect key factors.

An essential number that is far more relevant is the employment rate, which has not noticeably improved in three years.

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The employment-population ratio remained at a dismal 58.6%, down from approximately 61% in June 2009. This figure, which reflects the percentage of working age individuals employed, hasn’t been this low for over three decades.

Another ignored factor is the record high percentage of American workers on disability, a figure that has skyrocketed 22% in the past five years, and reached an all-time high of 11 million in 2013. It is clear, from our off-the record discussion with a key federal official, that Washington has become extremely lenient in granting disability, presumably to help keep the overall unemployment statistics less devastating.

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Economic Crisis Unreported

The U.S. economy is in a state of crisis, but you would hardly know it from listening to the major media. The facts, recently released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, are damning:

America’s real gross domestic product  marginally ticked upwards during 2014’s first quarter at 0.1%, a figure that is only technically not indicative of a recession.

In a clear symptom of a failing economy, exports are down, as is nonresidential fixed investment.  But federal spending—(except for the crucial area of defense, at time when Russian, Chinese, Iranian, North Korean, and Islamic extremists threats are growing exponentially)—has increased, perhaps the only reason the numbers don’t reflect an actual recession in the civilian economy.

At the same time, inflation increased at an annualized rate of 5.6%, and that excludes the price hikes in the most inflationary areas of late, food and energy.In a clear indication of the descending strength of the U.S. economy, real exports of goods and services decreased 7.6 percent in the first quarter.
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While Americans struggled, federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 0.7 percent. But as Russia, China, Iran and North Korea drastically expand their militaries and engage in threatening behavior, that extra government spending didn’t include defense, which, in these times of crisis, dropped 2.4%, while nondefense spending was hiked an unsustainable 5.9%.

Making life more difficult, Personal current taxes increased $18.9 billion in the first quarter. Personal saving — disposable personal income less personal outlays –dropped 28.7 billion from the prior quarter. The personal saving rate — personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income – dropped .2%

Combined with the nation’s ongoing unemployment crisis, the drastic increase in the national debt, the expenditure of over $700 billion dollars by the White House in a stimulus program that accomplished nothing, the mismanagement of the American economy is clear and drastic.