The deal that has been reached on the Transpacific Partnership bill (TPP) bill could not have come at a worse time for supporters of the international agreement.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership is an agreement to establish a free-trade zone among 12 nations around the Pacific. Unfortunately, all of its provisions have not been made available for public review. It has been criticized for being a “living” deal, which could “evolve,” without input from the American people.
The White House maintains that ““TPP will also raise labor standards across our trading partners and help raise wages here at home. That’s because enforceable requirements on minimum wages, hours of work, and occupational safety and health are at the center of the agreement. And that’s because trade jobs are good jobs, paying up to 18 percent more on average than non-trade jobs.”
Many have raised concerns that the measure will, similar to criticism of prior international trade deals, harm both employment opportunities for U.S. citizens and result in further damage to the weak balance of trade for American businesses. Roughly similar but smaller international agreements in the past have failed to produce any benefits for U.S. workers or enterprises.
These fears have been exacerbated by statistics released this month by the federal government. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis :
“…the goods and services deficit was $48.3 billion in August, up $6.5 billion. from $41.8 billion in July, revised. August exports were $185.1 billion, $3.7 billion less than July exports. August imports were $233.4 billion, $2.8 billion more than July imports. The August increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $6.6 billion to $67.9 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $19.6 billion.
Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $17.6 billion, or 5.2 percent, from the same period in 2014. Exports decreased $58.9 billion or 3.8 percent. Imports decreased $41.3billion or 2.2 percent.
Goods and Services Three-Month Moving Averages
The average goods and services deficit increased $1.9 billion to $45.1 billion for the three months ending in August.
- Average exports of goods and services decreased $0.9 billion to $187.2 billion in August.
- Average imports of goods and services increased $1.0 billion to $232.3 billion in August.
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Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $3.4 billion from the three months ending in August 2014.
- Average exports of goods and services decreased $9.4 billion from August 2014.
- Average imports of goods and services decreased $6.0 billion from August 2014.
Exports
Exports of goods decreased $4.1 billion to $124.5 billion in August. Exports of goods on a Census basis decreased $4.0 billion.
- Industrial supplies and materials decreased $2.2 billion.
- Fuel oil decreased $0.6 billion.
- Plastic materials decreased $0.2 billion.
- Crude oil decreased $0.2 billion.
Net balance of payments adjustments decreased $0.1 billion.”
At the same time, and not unrelated, the release of the latest unemployment report (see the recent New York Analysis of Policy & Government article) reveals the following unemployment rates:
“Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (4.7 percent),adult women, teenagers (16.3 percent), whites (4.4 percent), blacks (9.2 percent), Asians (3.6 percent), and Hispanics (6.4 percent) showed little or no change in September. The number of persons unemployed for less than 5 weeks increased by 268,000 to 2.4 million in September, partially offsetting a decline in August. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 2.1 million in September and accounted for 26.6 percent of the unemployed. The civilian labor force participation rate declined to 62.4 percent in September; the rate had been 62.6 percent for the prior 3 months. The employment-population ratio edged down to 59.2 percent in September, after showing little movement for the first 8 months of the year.” In addition, hourly wages declined. In a worrisome note, the August numbers were revised downward, something that generally happens only during a recession.”
Both conservatives and liberals disagree with the President’s optimistic contention. The Washington Post reports that Democrat presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) has “slammed the deal, saying that “Wall Street and other big corporations have won again. Republican front-runner Donald Trump tweeted [stated] on Monday: ‘The incompetence of our current administration is beyond comprehension. TPP is a terrible deal.’ And Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton has hedged on the TPP pact, despite having supported it while serving as Obama’s secretary of state.”
Senator Jeff Sessions (R-Alabama) states that “The White House still refuses to answer even the most basic questions about [the TPP]. These are the questions the White House will not answer:
- Will it increase or reduce the trade deficit, and by how much?
- Will it increase or reduce employment and wages, and by how much?
- Will you make the “living agreement” section public and explain fully its implications?
- Will China be added to the TPP?
- Will you pledge not to issue any executive actions, or enter into any future agreements, impacting the flow of foreign workers into the United States?”