U.S. nuclear arsenal – USA Gov Policy

According to Defense Department officials, The U.S. needs to upgrade its nuclear capability now. They testified that “ while those efforts are already underway, it’ll take continued funding from lawmakers to ensure the U.S. can maintain its nuclear edge.” The New York Analysis of Policy and Government presents their plans, as delivered to Congress.

The U.S. nuclear deterrence capability relies on the “nuclear triad,” which includes ground-based nuclear weapons that launch from silos; sea-based nuclear weapons that launch from submarines; and air-based nuclear weapons that are dropped from aircraft.

Here’s what the U.S. is doing to keep its nuclear edge sharp:

1.For ground-based deterrence, the U.S. is developing the “Ground Based Strategic Deterrent,” which is expected to replace about 400 existing Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles. The Minuteman III has been around since 1970.

2.At sea, the U.S. is looking to replace about 14 Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines with the Columbia-class submarine. Development of that sub is underway now, and the first is expected to begin construction in 2021.

3. In the air, the U.S. uses B-52H Stratofortress and B-2A Spirit bomber aircraft to deliver nuclear payloads. Eventually, it expects to replace those with the now-under-development B-21 Raider aircraft. The nuclear capability of the AGM-86B air-launched cruise missiles is also expected to be replaced by the Long Range Standoff weapon by the early 2030s.

Ellen Lord, the undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, discussed U.S. efforts to upgrade its nuclear triad yesterday during a hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

“The U.S. doesn’t have any wiggle room in the effort to upgrade its nuclear capability: modernization must be done now, without interruption, or the U.S. stands to lose its deterrence edge…The Russians and the Chinese are doing a fine job of upgrading their own nuclear capability and developing new delivery tools as well.

“[America] is living now with Cold War technology. We have put off modernizing the triad for multiple decades. So now we have no margin. We need to move forward. So, any cut in funding would essentially have us unilaterally stand down in terms of our capability to have a credible nuclear deterrent.”

The deterrence capability of the U.S. nuclear triad underwrites national security, and the weapons that make up that triad are fast approaching an age where their last-century capability set may no longer be enough of a threat to keep adversaries from guessing about what the U.S. is capable of doing.

That nuclear triad includes ground-based missiles — commonly referred to as intercontinental ballistic missiles; submarine-launched ballistic missiles; and air-launched cruise missiles dropped from bomber aircraft. In all three areas the U.S. modernization effort is underway.

Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent

Lord said it no longer makes financial sense to continue to upgrade or extend the life of existing Minuteman III ICBMs. New systems must be brought online. The U.S. is pursuing the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent for that, she told lawmakers.

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“There is no margin to do another service life extension program on Minuteman III, because not only would it be more expensive than developing GBSD, but you would not have the resiliency in the capability because you would not have the modern equipment, you would not have the actual capabilities from a functional range point of view [or] warhead capability,” Lord said. “So we need to, by 2028, start replacing [ICBMs].”

The U.S. has about 400 deployed Minuteman III ICBMs and is developing replacements through the GBSD program. The Minuteman III has been in place since 1970 and has been life extended several times. The GBSD is expected around 2028.

Sea-Based Deterrence

For sea-based nuclear deterrence, the U.S. has 14 Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines armed with Trident II submarine-launched ballistic missiles. The subs were originally designed with a 30-year life expectancy, which has been extended now to 42 years — but further extension is not possible.

The follow-on submarine will be the Columbia-class, which is in development now. It’s expected to last until 2084. For now, the life extension of the Trident II will allow it to continue to serve aboard the upgraded Ohio-class vessels and then move on to serve, at least initially, aboard the Columbia-class. Production of the first of those ships will begin in fiscal year 2021.

Air Defense

In the air, the U.S. uses B-52H Stratofortress and B-2A Spirit bombers to deliver nuclear weapons, including the AGM-86B air-launched cruise missiles. The Air Force is now upgrading the B-52, initially introduced in 1962. The B-2A will also get upgrades. Eventually, the Air Force expects to procure 100 B-21 Raider aircraft to replace both legacy bombers. The nuclear capability of the AGM-86B ALCM is also expected to be replaced by the Long Range Standoff weapon by the early 2030s.

Plutonium Production

Lord also told lawmakers the U.S. is also standing up a new facility to develop the “nuclear pit” that is the heart of any nuclear weapon.

The U.S. can already construct this portion of weapons at Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, she said. DOD wants to be able to produce as many as 30 plutonium pits a year by 2026, and produce 80 per year by 2030.

“We do not have any margin at this point, because for decades we have delayed,” Lord said.

To add resilience to that capability, she said DOD is also looking at opening a second pit-production facility at the Savannah River Site in South Carolina, about 25 miles southeast of Augusta, Georgia.

Photo: Department of Defense

The recent revelations that there are substntial probems in the U.S. nuclear deterrent should not come as a surprise to anyone.

All of this attention to the basic line of U.S. defense is appropriate, even if it is so long overdue. But what of the other aspects of the devastation caused to America’s national security after years of neglect and extraordinarily poor strategic decisions? Consider these astounding facts:

in the early part of this year, President Obama withdrew all American tanks from Europe, for no discernable reason.
Starting in January and for at least a quarter year thereafter, there will be no U.S. aircraft carrier on station in the eastern Pacific for the first time since World War II, at a time when tensions have mounted to a boiling point in that area.
As Russia, China, North Korea and Iran accelerate their nuclear programs, the White House continues to oppose even a marginally adequate anti-ballistic missile defense system.
Despite the growing threat from an EMP attack that could destroy the electronics in all American power plants, resevoirs, transportation assets (including planes, trains, trucks, and cars) and the relatively inexpensive cost to provide such protection, little has been done to address the looming crisis. The problem could also arise from natural causes, such as solar activity. It happened in the 1850’s, destroying the few electronic devices existing at that time.
American facilities to manufacture weapons remains at an inadequate level. There is, for example, just one plant in the entre USA that can build tanks, and President Obama has sought to close it.
If scheduled sequestration cuts to the military remain, the U.S. Army will be smaller than North Korea’s by the end of next year.
At a time when China’s espionage has become rampant, President Obama has agreed to steps that ould make it even easier for Beijing’s spies to remain in the U.S.
The U.S. Navy is at its smallest level since World War I, despite the fact that Russia and China have both dramatically increased the size and capabilities of their fleets. Similarly drastic reductions have occurred in the other services, as well.

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In the wake of growing concern over the increasing obsolescence of America’s nuclear arsenal at a time when Russia and China are rapidly and substantially modernizing theirs, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel announced a series of measures “to increase investment in America’s nuclear deterrent after reviews found evidence of systemic problems in the enterprise.”

The changes follow internal and external reviews after a series of Associated Press stories disclosed significant problems.

According to Hagel, underfunding and a focus on two wars allowed the status of the nuclear deterrent to degrade. He noted that “The internal and external reviews I ordered show that a consistent lack of investment and support for our nuclear forces over far too many years has left us with too little margin to cope with mounting stresses…The root cause has been a lack of sustained focus, attention and resources, resulting in a pervasive sense that a career in the nuclear enterprise offers too few opportunities for growth and advancement.” The reviews found inadequate communication, follow-up and accountability.

To address the problem, the commander of the Air Force Global Strike Command will now be elevated to a four-sta general, and funding will be increased.The Air Force established a force improvement program for Global Strike Command and reallocated over $160 million in fiscal 2014 and $150 million in fiscal 2015. These will address some of the most urgent shortfalls.

The Navy will be hiring over 2,500 workers to overhaul aging infrastructure. The USAF is planning construction to improve weapons storage facilities, will replace its Vietnam-era helicopters for ballistic missile security forces and is revamping training, evaluations and management of the nuclear force.

“Both services are elevating and reinforcing the nuclear mission, including in the budget request they’re preparing for fiscal year 2016,” Hagel said. “We will need to make billions of dollars of additional investments in the nuclear enterprise over the next five years.” The secretary said the services are looking at a 10 percent increase in funding over five years. Today, the U.S. spends about $15 billion to $16 billion on the nuclear deterrent.

Only the U.S., among all the nuclear powers, has allowed its strategic deterrent to deteriorate. America’s national security is in a desperately poor condition, on land, sea, air and space. The time to address this crisis is short and grower shorter by the hour.

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.