Tag: U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission

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Is China in Trouble?

This report was provided exclusively to the New York Analysis of Policy & Government by Daria Novak, who served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration.

The 2019 Report to Congress of the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission is public and the picture is provides indicates not much has improved since last year. While China’s domestic economy has cooled to the slowest pace in 30 years, the country’s unwavering commitment to state management means that its decades-long history of unfair trade practices remains a serious threat to US national security and global competitiveness. Washington has pushed hard for Beijing to codify its commitments to strengthened intellectual property rights protection, prohibition of forced technology transfer, and the removal of industrial subsidies. 

Since receiving permanent Most Favored Nation status almost two decades ago China has refused to abide by its commitment to the World Trade Organization (WTO). The United States, in response, has imposed tariffs impacting more than $500 billion in bilateral goods trade and reduced overall trade with the country. China’s response has been to improve its pursuit of domestic technological advances using whatever means available, including stealing intellectual property and industrial espionage. 

According to the eight key findings in the 2019 report, China’s economy is not moving toward the broader market liberalization advocated by Washington. Beijing remains determined to preserve its dominant role in the economy and its trade-distorting practices. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) views US actions on fair trade compliance as an attack on its internal affairs and has attempted to apply pressure on US companies by imposing its own tariff regime in response.

In an attempt to stimulate its slowing domestic economy Beijing has instituted infrastructure spending, tax cuts, and targeted monetary stimulus. In 2020 and for several years following it, China’s GDP is not expected to meet the minimum growth requirement of 6.2% needed to meet its 10-Year Plan for Economic Development. The GDP may fall as much as .3% lower than the artificial figures published by the government.

Other efforts by Beijing to influence its economy have met with limited success. While its deleveraging campaign has contained corporate debt growth, local governments continue borrowing at high rates. Individual household debt also is expanding rapidly as the Chinese attempt to maintain their standard of living during the slowdown. This not only poses a significant risk to China’s financial system, it also presents government policymakers with a major challenge. The population may not tolerate the economic policies of the CCP leadership without dispute. Beijing will have a difficult time limiting domestic expectations while attempting to expand the economy.

The combination of the economic slowdown and China’s global ambitions has resulted in an expansion in the strength and breadth of the state sector of the economy while private companies are floundering in debt and inventory. In 2019 these companies had a difficult time obtaining credit to expand operations. When China did purpose market liberalization this past year it only was in terms that were favorable to the state. Overall, Beijing faces a difficult time in the coming year.

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The safety of Chinese pharmaceuticals also is of concern. Drugs, and the raw materials to make them, are provided to US firms, the US military and other USG-related departments and agencies. They should not be manufactured in China, according to a report recommendation. It urges Congress to require the FDA, within six months, to investigate and certify to Congress whether the Chinese pharmaceutical industry is being regulated for safety at US standards, either by Chinese authorities or the FDA.  

The Report also contains a number of defense recommendations related to China’s global expansionist goals. It urges Congress to direct DOD to make assessments of China’s overseas basing, investment in strategic assets such as ports and airfields, and attempt to dissuade from nation from hosting a Chinese military presence. 

Regarding China’s space ambitions, it urges Congress to direct the National Space Council to develop a strategy to ensure the United States remains the preeminent space power in the face of growing competition from China and Russia. This includes a long-term economic space resource policy strategy, including an assessment of the viability of extraction of space-based precious minerals, onsite exploitation of space-based natural resources, and space-based solar power. 

To counter Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region is recommends the US assess the viability and impact of establishing new military training centers hosted by Indo-Pacific allies and partners to increase connectivity, interoperability, and shared professional military education among countries throughout the region. And, finally, it urges Congress to ensure the US limit China’s attempts to isolate Taiwan’s democratically-elected leaders and to strengthen support for Taiwan’s engagement with the international community, including actions the Administration will take should Beijing increase its coercion against Taiwan.

Overall, the 2019 Report indicates not much has improved in US-China economic and security affairs since last year and there also are numerous indicators warning that Beijing’s aggressive posturing in the Indo-Pacific and elsewhere will continue unabated if not opposed by other nations.

Photo: Two pilots assigned to a naval aviation brigade under the PLA Eastern Theater Command get settled in the cockpit of a J-10 fighter jet before takeoff for the round-the-clock air-to-air live-fire training in late November, 2019. (eng.chinamil.com.cn/Photo by Sha Lingyun and Tian Jianmin)

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China’s military aggressiveness cited in new report

The New York Analysis of Policy & Government continues its exploration of the 2014 report of the U.S.-China  Economic and Security Review Commission. http://www.uscc.gov/

“During 2014, China’s military modernization continued at a fast pace, creating additional challenges for the United States and its allies, and China’s neighbors. Most notably, China conducted its first test of a new hypersonic missile vehicle, which could enable China to conduct kinetic strikes anywhere in the world within minutes to hours, and performed its second flight test of a new road-mobile intercontinental missile that will be able to strike the entire continental United States and could carry up to 10 independently maneuverable warheads.

“Meanwhile, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) increased its inventory of modern submarines, surface ships, and combat aircraft while upgrading its legacy platforms with new weapon systems.

“In the maritime domain, the PLA Navy continued its transformation from a coastal force into a technologically advanced navy capable of projecting power throughout the Asia Pacific. Since the Commission’s 2013 Annual Report, the PLA Navy has expanded its presence in the East and South China Seas and for the first time begun combat patrols in the Indian Ocean. Additionally, China’s first aircraft carrier in January conducted its first long-distance training deployment.

“The nature of the deployment suggests China is experimenting with multiple types of carrier formations, including those resembling U.S. combined expeditionary groups.
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“China’s growing confidence in its military capabilities has emboldened Beijing to aggressively advance its territorial ambitions. Since approximately 2009, China has increasingly used coercive military and economic measures to assert control over its territorial claims in the East and South China Seas. Since late 2013, however, China has been more willing to advance its sovereignty claims without seeking to justify its actions as responses to perceived provocations by rival claimants. The three most significant manifestations of this new, even more assertive turn are China’s establishment of an Air Defense Identification Zone in the East China Sea; China’s relocation of an oil rig to waters disputed by Vietnam in the South China Sea; and China’s ongoing attempts to prevent the Philippines from resupplying its military outpost at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea…

“Perhaps of most concern is Beijing’s apparent willingness to provoke incidents at sea and in the air that could lead to a major conflict as China’s maritime and air forces expand their operations beyond China’s immediate periphery. China already has initiated dangerous encounters at sea on several occasions. In December 2013, a U.S. Navy ship was forced to maneuver to avoid a collision with a PLA Navy ship that had intentionally stopped in front of it. Both ships were operating in international waters. Later in 2014, a China Coast Guard ship rammed Vietnamese government ships following China’s placement of a state-owned deep-sea drilling platform inside Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone, and a Chinese fighter flew within 30 feet of a U.S. Navy reconnaissance aircraft international airspace.

“This pattern of unilateral Chinese actions in sensitive and disputed areas is raising tensions in the Asia Pacific and alienating many of its neighbors. China’s deepening economic, diplomatic, and military influence on its geographic periphery has led its neighboring countries to reconsider their security strategies and relationships, particularly those involving the United States. As the United States seeks to reaffirm its alliances and boost its security links with associates in East Asia and Oceania, it must contend with China’s competing vision of a China-led regional security architecture.

“This uncertain environment is further complicated by China’s support for North Korea, which continues to pose the most serious threat to East Asia security.”

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China’s unfair Trade Policies

The  U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission has released its 2014 Annual Report to Congress.  In two crucial areas—economic and military affairs, it paints a disturbing picture.  In today’s report, we present the Commission’s summary of the challenges represented by Beijing’s trade policies.

China’s unfair practices occur in a number of economic spheres.  Last March, The  World Trade Organization decided that China broke trade rules by limiting the export of rare-earth metals in an effort to give their domestic manufacturers a key advantage. The practice also has national security implications, since many of the resources in question are key elements in defense industry manufacturing.

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American manufacturers already operate under a number of handicaps imposed by Washington. China’s policies are delivering a further and potentially decisive blow.