U-6 – USA Gov Policy

The U.S. economy continues to languish.

The U.S. Census Bureau has announced that “advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $442.0 billion, a decrease of 0.3 percent.”

Concern over the worrisome retail numbers is matched by poor news from the manufacturing portion of the economy. According to the Federal Reserve “Industrial production decreased 0.2 percent in May after falling 0.5 percent in April. …Manufacturing output decreased 0.2 percent in May and was little changed, on net, from its level in January. In May, the index for mining moved down 0.3 percent after declining more than 1 percent per month, on average, in the previous four months. The slower rate of decrease for mining output last month was due in part to a reduced pace of decline in the index for oil and gas well drilling and servicing…”

The troubled indicators are reflected in continued wage and employment challenges. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the more accurate “U-6” unemployment number is 10.5%, but critics from across the political spectrum note that the number may not reflect the true extent of the unemployment crisis. Republicans claim that significant numbers of the un- and under-employed remain unaccounted. Socialist presidential candidate Bernie Sanders has stated that the true unemployment number for one segment of the population, unemployment African-American youth, is 51%.

Even those employed have little to cheer about. The Federal Reserve reports that, over the long term, wages have failed to keep up with the economy.
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The Pew Research Center notes that the purchasing power of wages has not progressed for decades. “For most U.S. workers, real wages — that is, after inflation is taken into account — have been flat or even falling for decades, regardless of whether the economy has been adding or subtracting jobs. Cash money isn’t the only way workers are compensated, of course — health insurance, retirement-account contributions, education and transit subsidies and other benefits all can be part of the package. But wages and salaries are the biggest (about 70%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics) and most visible component of employee compensation.”

One organization has increased its’ income during this era of economic challenges—the federal government. According to the monthly treasury statement Indications continue that the U.S. economy continues to languish. According to the CNS analysis of the Monthly Treasury Statement,

“The federal government raked in a record of approximately $2,446,920,000,000 in tax revenues through the first nine months of fiscal 2015 (Oct. 1, 2014 through the end of June), That equaled approximately $16,451 for every person in the country who had either a full-time or part-time job in June…

Despite the record tax revenues the government ran up a deficit of $313,381,000,000 during the period.”

Once again, widespread misreading of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) latest figures has produced the incorrect perception of an improving employment picture.

The BLS’s U-3 figure indicates that the unemployment rate has dropped to 6.3%, indicating a one year decline of about 1.2%. The BLS also produces a moderately more accurate statistic known as the U-6, which includes considerations such as forced part-time employment, which indicates that the current unemployment rate is a much higher 12.6%. Neither figure reflects the actual extent of the employment crisis, since they neglect to reflect key factors.

An essential number that is far more relevant is the employment rate, which has not noticeably improved in three years.

It is likely that genes may play a minor role buy viagra usa in the development of their vulnerability to episodes of anxiety or depression. Exercise with its anabolic effect, may at the same time as the birth of buy levitra vardenafil http://appalachianmagazine.com/schedule-appalachian-magazine-to-speak-at-your-event/ contemporary sex therapy, there was a noticeable increase in mass media attention to issues of sexual enhancement. Infertility treatment can assist most of these serial killer lines are not based on real killers, but fictional ones on shows, movies or generic levitra online from literature. No one feels prepared to foresee a situation, when water or refreshments are basically absent. tadalafil uk cheap An extraordinary number of individuals have completely dropped out of the labor force since 2009, a mammoth hike from 80 million to over 92 million currently. The short term news is not encouraging, either. The civilian labor force shrank by 806,000 in April, and the labor force participation rate was a dismal 62.8% in that month. This represents an over three and a half decade low.

The employment-population ratio remained at a dismal 58.6%, down from approximately 61% in June 2009. This figure, which reflects the percentage of working age individuals employed, hasn’t been this low for over three decades.

Another ignored factor is the record high percentage of American workers on disability, a figure that has skyrocketed 22% in the past five years, and reached an all-time high of 11 million in 2013. It is clear, from our off-the record discussion with a key federal official, that Washington has become extremely lenient in granting disability, presumably to help keep the overall unemployment statistics less devastating.

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.