Once again, widespread misreading of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) latest figures has produced the incorrect perception of an improving employment picture.
The BLS’s U-3 figure indicates that the unemployment rate has dropped to 6.3%, indicating a one year decline of about 1.2%. The BLS also produces a moderately more accurate statistic known as the U-6, which includes considerations such as forced part-time employment, which indicates that the current unemployment rate is a much higher 12.6%. Neither figure reflects the actual extent of the employment crisis, since they neglect to reflect key factors.
An essential number that is far more relevant is the employment rate, which has not noticeably improved in three years.
An extraordinary number of individuals have completely dropped out of the labor force since 2009, a mammoth hike from 80 million to over 92 million currently. The short term news is not encouraging, either. The civilian labor force shrank by 806,000 in April, and the labor force participation rate was a dismal 62.8% in that month. This represents an over three and a half decade low.
The employment-population ratio remained at a dismal 58.6%, down from approximately 61% in June 2009. This figure, which reflects the percentage of working age individuals employed, hasn’t been this low for over three decades.
Another ignored factor is the record high percentage of American workers on disability, a figure that has skyrocketed 22% in the past five years, and reached an all-time high of 11 million in 2013. It is clear, from our off-the record discussion with a key federal official, that Washington has become extremely lenient in granting disability, presumably to help keep the overall unemployment statistics less devastating.