Tag: Sweden and NATO

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Sweden Responds to Russian Threat

Sweden, long associated with nonalignment in the Cold War, a peaceful foreign policy, and an armed force that had come rather close to being barely existent, is taking a dramatic turn.

Faced with Vladimir Putin’s expansionist goals, aggressive actions, and vastly strengthened military, Stockholm is seeking to rapidly prepare its defenses for the threatening times ahead.  That includes both rebuilding its own depleted defenses and moving closer to NATO. It currently serves as an “Enhanced Opportunity Partner” within the organization.

According to NATO,  “In response to the deteriorating security situation, Sweden is taking steps not only to enhance its warfighting capability but also to increase the resilience of society. The government appointed a Defence Commission in 2017 to look beyond current issues with a view to calibrating the country’s future defence policy and posture. A recent report from the Commission focuses specifically on the need to prepare the whole of society for the worst-case scenario of war… The security situation in Northern Europe has deteriorated since Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. There is now a growing realisation among NATO members and partners alike that challenges to European security and the rules-based international order must be met by rapidly transforming our defence postures… Consequently, the key priority of the present Swedish Defence Bill, passed in 2015, is to enhance the warfighting capability of the Armed Forces.

Defense News  reports that Sweden has increased its military budget by 11% over the past five years. Its government has even re-instituted the draft.

A Swedish publication, The Local  reports that the nation is attempting to double its defense budget by 2035. A new report from the Swedish military  estimates that the total to do that, the defence budget will have to be increased from today’s 53 billion kronor ($6.5 billion) a year to around 115 billion kronor a year by 2035. The Swedish military believes that “There are several reasons to further develop the military defence. The geopolitical global development is unpredictable. Russia has through its actions in Georgia and Ukraine showed that they do not hesitate to use military force. They also plan to increase their military capabilities after 2020. Further reasons are that the society is more vulnerable to strain and warfare targets society as a whole,” an Armed Forces statement reads.

Sweden has been moving closer to NATO, in response to Moscow’s significant threats. Putin has moved air and missile forces close to Sweden, and is considering deploying much of its large tactical nuclear forces to the region as well. Russia possesses a ten to one advantage over the U.S. in tactical nuclear weapons.  Moscow has engaged in simulated attacks on Sweden, and its intelligence forces constitute an ongoing threat. The Local  notes that “A poll released in October 2015 suggested that 41 percent of Swedes are in favor of seeking membership in the military defense alliance, 39 percent are against the idea and 20 percent are uncertain.”
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As noted previously in the New York Analysis of Policy & Government, “The Scandinavian nation has already participated in some of the alliances’ activities.  Swedish forces joined with the NATO Response Force …in a joint training exercise.  Finland and Ukraine (this was before the invasion) also participated.  Both Finland and Sweden have moved closer to the alliance, participating in key exercises and permitting NATO forces to be deployed within their nations.

[Former] NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmssen said that the relationship between the alliance and Sweden “is already strong.” Like the other NATO nations, Sweden had seriously weakened its defense capabilities in the aftermath of the Soviet Union’s collapse, according to Defense News. It has been estimated that the nation has only a quarter of the capabilities it had during the Cold War era. Russia has engaged in provocative activities, including simulated attacks on Sweden.  That forced a new look at the diminished capability of the nation’s armed forces, which reportedly could only endure a week in the face of an attack by Moscow. However, in the wake of the Ukrainian invasion and Russia’s enormous rebuilding of its military might, it is both re-examining its own military capabilities as well as the advantages of joining NATO.”

Ties between Stockholm and Washington have been moving closer for some time.  Last August, U.S. military personnel participated in Exercise Aurora 2017, a Swedish national exercise designed to strengthen regional defense capabilities. It was the largest such exercise hosted by Sweden in more than 20 years.

Sweden, along with Finland (both non-NATO members) will participate in NATO’s largest military exercise (“Trident Fall”)  in recent years, which will take place in Norway this fall.

Photo: Current Swedish defense policy focuses on both upgrading national military capability and deepening cooperation with other nations and international organisations. Pictured: Main battle tanks during Exercise Aurora – Sweden’s largest national military exercise in over 20 years (September 2017). © Swedish Armed Forces

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NATO Responds to Russia

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and Georgia, its vast military modernization program, its violation of the INF treaty, and Vladimir Putin’s clear nostalgia for the former Soviet Union have made it clear that a new Cold War has emerged.

In response, NATO has been adjusting to the new threat level. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg  stated this month that “We have seen a much more assertive Russia, we have seen a Russia which has over many years invested heavily in their military capabilities, modernized their military capabilities, which are exercising not only conventional forces but also nuclear forces, and which has been willing to use military force against a neighbor: Ukraine. And of course, NATO has to be able to respond to that and we have responded to that partly with our enhanced Forward Presence with more deployment of troops in the eastern part of the alliance, but also by increasing the readiness of our forces and also increasing our ability to move forces. And we are constantly adapting and what we do in Europe now is part of that adaptation.”

At the end of the recent NATO defense ministers meeting, Stoltenberg discussed how NATO is responding to the new threat level. He  emphasized that “A key component of our adaptation is a robust and agile command structure.  This underpins both our strengthened deterrence and defense posture and our ability to project stability beyond NATO’s borders. At the Warsaw Summit last year, we decided to launch an assessment of the NATO command structure in light of the changed security environment. To ensure it can do the job across the full spectrum of Alliance missions. Today, we agreed on the outline design for an adapted NATO Command Structure, which will be the basis for further work.”

Two new commands will be created:

A Command for the Atlantic, to ensure that sea lines of communication between Europe and North America remain free and secure, and a new Command to improve the movement of military forces across Europe. And ways to strengthen the logistical function across the NATO Command Structure.

Stoltenberg said that “The adaptation of the NATO Command Structure will further strengthen our ability to reinforce Allies quickly and effectively. But military mobility is not only about new commands. It’s also about the ability to move forces and equipment quickly, with the right transport means and the right infrastructure. Since 2014, we have made good progress in improving national legislation. Removing many bureaucratic hurdles to allow us to move forces across Allied territory. But much more needs to be done. We need to ensure that national legislation facilitating border crossing is fully implemented. We need enough transport capacity at our disposal, which largely comes from the private sector. And we need to improve infrastructure, such as roads, bridges, railways, runways and ports. So NATO is now updating the military requirements for civilian infrastructure.

“Of course, military mobility is not just about the military. It requires a whole-of-government approach. So it’s important that our defense ministers make our interior, finance and transport ministers aware of military requirements.

“It’s also important that NATO coordinates with the European Union and we are indeed working closely and actively together on this issue. For instance, we share information on standards, requirements, as well as challenges related to civilian infrastructure. So I envisage that military mobility could become a real flagship of NATO-EU cooperation.”
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“Other moves approved by the Defense Ministers included increased attention to cyber warfare, including the creation of a new Cyber Operations Centre to help integrate cyber into NATO planning and operations at all levels, and an increase in the size of the alliance’s Resolute Support training mission in Afghanistan from, approximately 13,000 to about 16,000 individuals.”

Stoltenberg explained that “We must be just as effective in the cyber domain as we are on land, at sea and in the air, with real-time understanding of the threats we face and the ability to respond however and whenever we choose.”

NATO is changing in a number of ways, some encouraging for the alliance, and some that are frankly worrisome.

Under the leadership of Turkey’s President Recep Erdogan, a nation that was once considered a key anchor in NATO’s south, and, before the end of the cold war, the only NATO ally directly bordering the USSR, continues to drift away.  The latest indication is his purchase of a Russian Air Defense System, Moscow’s S-400.  The move has been soundly criticized by the United States.

But as Turkey becomes increasingly estranged, other nations are moving closer.  Sweden, notes RT, recently played host to around 2,000 NATO personnel,” more than 1,400 of whom are from the US, according to the local Sydöstran newspaper. NATO members Denmark, Estonia, France, Lithuania, and Norway are also participating, as well as non-aligned Finland.”

Within the Middle East, Israel may be moving closer to NATO.  According to Judah Ari Gross in The Times of Israel,  Gadi Eisenkot, head of the Israeli Defense Forces, made an undeclared trip to NATO headquarters in Brussels to speak with the top US general in Europe. Regional developments were reportedly discussed. Accompanying Eisenkot were Erez Maisel, the head of the Israel Defense Forces’ Foreign Relations Division, and Ram Yavne, the head of the army’s Strategic Division. According to The Times, “the senior officers met with Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, who serves as both the head of the US military’s European Command and as supreme allied commander of NATO. Hadashot news, formerly known as Channel 2 news, first reported on the unannounced trip.” A key part of the discussion “included Iran’s alleged construction of a military base less than 50 kilometers (30 miles) from Israel’s Golan border. On Friday, the BBC, citing Western security official, reported that Iran was setting up a permanent base a site used by the Syrian army near el-Kiswah, 14 kilometers (8 miles) south of Damascus, and 50 kilometers (30 miles) from the Israeli border.”

During his presidential campaign, Trump urged NATO members to do more. Emphasizing NATO’s key role continued into his Administration. Todd Lindberg, writing in Commentary notes that “Senior officials of his administration have probably devoted more time and energy to making the public case for NATO and our Pacific alliances during his first 10 months in office than their predecessors did in the previous 10 years.”