SECRETARY OF STATE ANNOUNCED ANOTHER KOREA SUMMIT TO BE HELD

In an interview with CBS News Secretary of State Pompeo announced There will be another summit soon to discuss North Korean issues, including denuclearization. He confirmed that North Korea has agreed to allow in inspectors and that the world needs to hold North Korean President Kim to his statement. Secretary Pompeo said the US is working out the details and that a summit probably would not occur in October.

IRAN

When asked if there would be a meeting between President Trump and Iranian President Rouhani, Secretary Pompeo said “…there’s not going to be a meeting. President Trump has said when the Iranians are prepared to talk about fundamentally changing their behavior, then he is of course prepared to talk to them.”

He added that statements by Rouhani saying President Trump has tendencies resembling a Nazi disposition and that the United States’ America first strategy is a symptom of weakness of intellect “indicate that they’re not in that place, and it is outrageous for him to say such a thing. For a Holocaust-denying country that is threatening Israel to compare the United States or its leader to Nazis is among the most outrageous things I have heard – and I will tell you, in diplomacy you hear a lot of them – the most outrageous things I have ever heard.”

Europe, China, and Russia have agreed recently to create a back channel to Tehran to circumvent US sanctions on the country. Secretary Pompeo pointed out that: “To continue to create mechanisms to fund the world’s largest state sponsor of terror is disastrous policy and I hope they will reconsider it. But most importantly, European businesses are voting with their checkbooks. They are leaving Iran in droves. These sanctions will be effective, they are effective, and come November 4th, they’ll be even more effective.”

Social unrest in Iran has moved beyond Tehran into small towns in the countryside. The chaos created by the Islamic, Republic, the government of Iran, is collapsing its economy. The rial, Iran’s currency is falling with 150,000 rial to 1 US dollar. US sanctions are pressuring Iran. The leadership’s poor treatment of the Iranian people, combined with the billions it spends on funding terrorist activity across the globe, is creating a tenuous situation which may foster change in the country. Secretary Pompeo recently said the “American people are going to stand with the Iranian people.” The ayatollah has in the past stated that Iran requires hostility with the United States. It makes diplomatic negotiations with this perspective difficult, according to Brian Hook, Senior Policy Advisor to the Secretary of State and Special Representative for Iran. He added that Iran historically comes to the table only after heavy pressure from other countries. While it is too early to expect or predict regime change, US sanctions do appear to be impacting the country and its leadership.

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TERRORISM AND IRAN

The State Department released the first report produced by the Iran Action Group. It’s titled Outlaw Regime: A Chronicle of Iran’s Destructive Activities. The report examines Iran’s involvement in terrorism, Iran’s missile program, their illicit financial activities, Iran’s threats to maritime security, Iran’s threats to cyber security, human rights abuses in Iran, and the systematic destruction of Iran’s environment by this regime. The report notes that the Iranian people lack clean water due to the environmental degradation incurred through official corruption, failed government management and bad environmental policies. Protesters typically are jailed or killed for their environmental views.

CHINA

Dr. Christopher Ashley Ford, Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation, spoke recently to the FBI-Department of Commerce Conference on Counter-Intelligence and Export Control about China’s long-term political and military goals. He said: “China has for a great many years been diligently engaged in a long-term strategy to regain the global power and influence Chinese leaders believe were lost in the 19^th century to Western imperialist powers. The stated objective of the Chinese Communist Party’s strategy is not merely to acquire power and influence for itself on the world stage, but in fact to displace U.S. power and influence as China reclaims the central geopolitical status and role of which the Party has convinced itself that China was robbed in the 19^th Century by Western imperialism.”

Ford confirmed that China has a goal of achieving great power status and total dominance in East Asia by 2049. China’s President Xi Jinping publicly calls the coming two decades a “period of strategic opportunity.” Xi views world conditions as ripe for achieving high level technical advances across its economy and, in particular, in its development of an offensive military posture capable of conquering territory in East Asia. China acquires much of its state-of-the-art military technology through its theft of intellectual property from the west, along with tech transfer, joint research and development projects with foreign firms and collaboration with foreign universities.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media, which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.