Tag: South China sea

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The Myth of China’s Peaceful Rise

The hope that China would peacefully rise to great power status continues to be shattered.

Rather than becoming a nation that uses its enormous military and economic might to benefit both its own citizenry and the international community, Beijing is following a pattern of aggression.  To those mindful of history, its actions are highly reminiscent of Imperial Japan’s belligerent actions that led to World War II in the Pacific.

A five member panel at The Tribunal of the Permanent Court at The Hague, in accordance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas has ruled in favor of the Philippines in its dispute with China. China claims almost all of the South China Sea, and has deployed its military to enforce its will.

Beijing bases its claim on its internationally unrecognized “Nine Dash Line” demarcation.  The Tribunal concluded that there was no legal basis for China to claim historic rights to resources within the sea areas falling within the ‘Nine-dash line’.

The specific arbitration before the Hague concerned the role of historic rights and the source of maritime entitlements in the South China Sea, the status of certain maritime features and the maritime entitlements they are capable of generating, and the lawfulness of certain actions by China that were alleged by the Philippines to violate the Convention.

Having found that certain areas are within the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines, the Tribunal found that China had violated the Philippines’ sovereign rights in its exclusive economic zone by (a) interfering with Philippine fishing and petroleum exploration, (b) constructing artificial islands and (c) failing to prevent Chinese fishermen from fishing in the zone. …The Tribunal further held that Chinese law enforcement vessels had unlawfully created a serious risk of collision when they physically obstructed Philippine vessels.

The Tribunal also considered the effect on the marine environment of China’s recent large-scale land reclamation and construction of artificial islands at seven features in the Spratly Islands and found that China had caused severe harm to the coral reef environment and violated its obligation to preserve and protect fragile ecosystems and the habitat of depleted, threatened, or endangered species. The Tribunal also found that Chinese authorities were aware that Chinese fishermen have harvested endangered sea turtles, coral, and giant clams on a substantial scale in the South China Sea (using methods that inflict severe damage on the coral reef environment) and had not fulfilled their obligations to stop such activities.

As it had previously announced, China completely rejected the ruling. Rep. Mac Thornberry (R-TX), Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, made the following remarks in response to today’s ruling on the South China Sea arbitration case:

“Today’s ruling is clear, unambiguous, and reinforces the international order.  The United States should act to give this ruling weight by continuing our free navigation of the seas with our allies and partners in the region, maintaining a robust and ready naval presence in the area, and demonstrating that we are a reliable ally to countries in the region.” 

 In testimony  before the House Committee on Armed Services Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces and the House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia last week, Abraham Denmark, deputy assistant secretary of defense for East Asia, noted:

“The South China Sea is an area of immense economic and strategic importance. For centuries, it has been a major crossroads of international trade and commerce that connected cultures and economies from East Africa and the Middle East, through South and Southeast Asia, to Japan and the Korean peninsula in Northeast Asia. For decades, it has been a critical operational area for the U.S. military and central to our strategy to strengthen a principled order that enables stability and prosperity across the region… Conflicting maritime claims have exacerbated long-simmering territorial disputes and threaten to disrupt the remarkable stability and economic gains the region has enjoyed for decades.

“China, in particular, has undertaken a series of initiatives that set it apart from all other claimants…“Examples of concerning Chinese behavior in the past few years include:

  •  Between December 2013 and October 2015, China reclaimed approximately 3,200 acres of land in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea—a development we detailed in our Annual Report to Congress on the Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2016. For context, over the same time period, other claimants reclaimed approximately 50 acres.
  • China has used low-intensity coercion to enhance its presence and control in disputed areas of the South China Sea. China continues to employ China Coast Guard and People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy ships to implement its claims by maintaining a near-continuous presence in disputed areas in an attempt to demonstrate some form of continuous administration. These efforts have included issuing fishing regulations that 3 covered disputed areas, blocking access of non-Chinese registered fishing vessels to disputed areas, and issuing warnings to civilian and military aircraft to depart the area while they were operating in international airspace.
  • China has continued to build harbors, communications and surveillance systems, logistical facilities, and three military-grade airfields on many of the features it occupies. In the past year, China also has deployed radar systems, anti-ship cruise missiles, surface to-air missiles, and has rotated fighter jets through features it claims in the South China Sea.

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“Furthermore, the construction of hangars, anti-aircraft guns, and fuel and water underground storage facilities would support extended deployments of multiple aircraft and ships. And finally, in April, China’s most senior military officer led a delegation on a tour of China’s occupied features in the Spratly Islands to inspect the construction and visit the soldiers stationed on each feature. …Once completed and outfitted, these facilities will greatly improve China’s capabilities to enforce its maritime and territorial claims, and project power further from China’s shores.”

Beijing’s rapid and extraordinary naval development has given the nation a submarine fleet already larger than the U.S. Navy’s, and its fleet will be larger than America’s within four years.

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China Expected to Reject Peaceful Resolution of Pacific Dispute

The world’s most dangerous maritime dispute is awaiting a ruling from the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague.China has unlawfully laid claim to almost the entire oceanic area known as the South China Sea, and which the Philippines call the West Philippine Sea.  It encompasses a 1,400,000 square mile region from Singapore and the Malacca Straits to the Strait of Taiwan. A third of the planet’s shipping transits through it, and huge deposits of oil and gas, as well as a wealth of fish, are contained within.The Philippines initiated proceedings against Beijing in accordance with the United Nations Law of the Sea.  International Law would classify maritime features, including hundreds of very small uninhabited spots, many of which are now questionably claimed and some occupied by China’s military, as rocks, low tide elevations, or submerged banks, but not islands, which overturns China’s claims to use those already disputed sites as a way to extend its claims over ocean areas.The Philippines simply seek to have the right to operate within its own exclusive economic zone restored and have access to its key offshore areas without Chinese harassment.China has already stated that it has no intention of abiding by the results, and rejects the jurisdiction of The Hague.  In other related disputes in the area, Beijing has not been cooperative in attempts to negotiate the issue through regional talks, preferring to deal separately with each national claimant, a tactic that allows it to use armed intimidation as an effective tool. China’s General Luo Yuan said his nation should be prepared for “war at all costs” to enforce its claims, according to a commentary posted on china.org.cn.

Writing in the Asia Times   National Security author Bill Gertz writes that “China’s takeover of the South China Sea is nearly complete and Beijing is now stepping up its sophisticated information warfare campaign in preparation for an expected unfavorable ruling from an international tribunal affecting its island claims… The strategic goal of China in the South China Sea is to solidify control over the waters without firing a shot, in much the same way as Russia was able to do with its military annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea in March 2014. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) refers to this as the use of “military soft power.”

During the past several years, unrestrained by a weakened American navy and an irresolute President, China has laid claim to most of the South China Sea region. The basis of China’s claim is what it describes as a “Nine Dash Line,” which, according to U.S. sources,  is “a Chinese map of the South China Sea showing nine line segments that, if connected, would enclose an area covering roughly 90% [of the entire region.] …The area inside the nine line segments far exceeds what is claimable as territorial waters under customary international law of the sea… and includes waters that are within the claimable [and internationally recognized]  (and in some places are quite near the coasts) of the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Vietnam.”

Under the Obama Administration, little of substance has been done to discourage China’s aggressive actions.  The White House has refused to side with America’s allies such as the Philippines or Japan when China engaged in provocative actions against those nations. Even as China used force in furtherance of its goals, all the U.S. Administration did was to encourage a “peaceful resolution,” an act which some has said was a betrayal of allies, and a complete denial of the rule of law which objective observers note rejects Beijing’s claims.

President Obama has emphasized what the Administration describes as a “pivot to Asia” of U.S. armed forces, in response to China’s actions.  However, the substance of the pivot involves comparatively little force, since the U.S. navy is now a shadow of its former size, the smallest it has been since before World War 1, and China, in contrast, has dramatically built up the size of its forces.  It now has more submarines than the U.S. Navy, and its fleet will outnumber America’s within four years.  Beijing also has extraordinary new land based weapons, such as the DF-21missile which can destroy American naval vessels at a distance of 900 miles.

The President has concluded agreements with Vietnam as a means to stiffen regional resistance. However, speaking in Hawaii, Mr. Obama denied the deal was aimed at China.

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U.S.-China relations at the danger point

China’s rise to superpower status in both military and economic realms has, despite all hopes to the contrary, been neither peaceful nor beneficial to the international community.

The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission was created by Congress to report on the national security implications of the bilateral trade and economic relationship between the United States and the People’s Republic of China.

In its 2015 Report to Congress, the Commission presents a worrisome outline of the current state of Sino-American relations, with a candor rarely expressed by either government or the media.  The New York Analysis of Policy & Government has examined the lengthy report, and we begin our three-part summary with the testimony before Congress of Dennis Shea, vice chairman of the Commission.

U.S.-China security relations suffered from rising tensions and growing distrust in 2015, largely due to China’s aforementioned cyberespionage activities against a range of U.S. government, defense, and commercial entities, as well as its unprecedented island-building campaign in the South China Sea.

In just two years, China has presented other South China Sea claimants with a fait accompli by dredging up nearly 3,000 acres of sand in disputed waters on which to stake its claim, station military assets, and project force into contested waters. These activities are stirring anxiety and distrust in Southeast Asia; Vietnamese government officials and other experts expressed to the Commission the growing sense that China is strategically encircling the country.

In October, after months of China’s increasingly aggressive assertions of its South China Sea claims, a U.S. Navy guided missile destroyer conducted a freedom of navigation patrol within 12 nautical miles of one of the reclaimed features for the first time. Though China’s maritime dispute with Japan over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea received less media attention in 2015, China continued to quietly increase its military and civilian presence in contested waters by conducting regular air and maritime patrols near the islands and erecting 16 energy exploitation structures. China’s military continues to expand its reach beyond the East and South China seas.

In September 2015, China’s Navy sailed through Alaska’s Aleutian Islands, the closest it has ever sailed to U.S. territory during a distant sea deployment without a port call. China’s military also conducted exercises in the Mediterranean Sea, antipiracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden, and an evacuation of noncombatants in Yemen. To support these expanding capabilities, China appears to be seeking to establish its first overseas military facility in Djibouti.
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The Chinese Navy’s increasing activities far from China’s shores reflect China’s growing capability and willingness to use its military to protect its overseas economic assets and expatriate population. Beyond the increasing blue water profile of China’s naval forces, the Commission examined two additional aspects of China’s ongoing military modernization efforts: China’s space and counterspace programs and its offensive missile forces.

China has become one of the world’s leading space powers after decades of prioritization and investment. China’s space program generates international prestige and influence, and enables China to collaborate on a range of bilateral and multilateral space activities. Among its goals in the space industry, China specifically aimed to capture 15 percent of the global launch services market and 10 percent of the global commercial satellite market by 2015, although these efforts have produced mixed results. Militarily, as its developmental counterspace capabilities become operational, China will be able to target vulnerabilities in the spacedependent U.S. national security architecture.

These capabilities could hold at risk U.S. national security satellites in every orbital regime. China’s space and counterspace programs have significant implications for the United States. That’s why the Commission recommends Congress continue to support the U.S. Department of Defense’s efforts to reduce the vulnerability of U.S. space assets through cost-effective solutions, such as the development of smaller and more distributed satellites, hardened satellite communications, and non-space intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets such as unmanned aerial vehicles.

When examining China’s offensive missile forces, the Commission found China has achieved extraordinarily rapid growth in its conventional missile capability. In fact, China has the most active ballistic and cruise missile program in the world today. China’s initial conventional missile development focused heavily on expanding its short-range ballistic missile force for Taiwan contingencies. In the past decade, China’s development of longer-range missiles, pursuit of advanced missile technologies, and diversification of its launch platforms have enabled it to hold at risk a wider range of targets farther from its shores, even as far as the second island chain. China’s short-range ballistic missile force has grown from 30 to 50 missiles in the mid-1990s to more than 1,200 in 2015, mostly deployed along the Taiwan Strait.

China has also developed and fielded new types of medium-range and intermediate-range ballistic missiles. It currently has the ability to conduct precision strikes against land and naval targets within the first island chain. As part of its missile force modernization, China is developing cruise missiles that are increasingly difficult for the U.S. military to detect and defend against. It fielded its first ground-launched land-attack cruise missile, and is developing air-, ship-, and submarine-launched cruise missiles with land-attack and antiship missions.

The YJ–18 anti-ship cruise missile is almost certainly capable of supersonic speeds during the terminal phase of its flight, a feature that reduces the time shipborne defenses have to react to an incoming threat. In the meantime, the sheer number of China’s cruise missiles poses a formidable challenge against existing U.S. Navy defenses. These developments have led the Commission to recommend Congress direct the U.S. Department of Defense to provide an unclassified estimate of the People’s Liberation Army Second Artillery Force’s inventory of missiles and launchers, by type, in future iterations of its annual report to Congress analyzing military and security developments involving China.

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India’s vital new role

India may play an increasingly vital role in countering China’s push to dominate key portions of the Indian Ocean, a move encouraged by the United States.

Four critical waterways, including the Suez Canal, the Bab el Mandeb, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Strait of Malacca tie into the Indian Ocean. According to the Asia Times, Zhang Wei, researcher of the PLA Navy Academic Institute, said “More Chinese ships are crossing the Indian Ocean as it has become a major pipeline for trade for China.”

Beijing has used its rapidly growing naval power to assert major claims to Pacific region waterways. It alleges that it owns four-fifths of the South China Sea, a vital area through which about 70% of the world’s maritime commerce passes. It powerful navy, which will become the world’s largest by 2020, gives it the firepower to back the claim.

Earlier this year, The White House announced “India is indispensable to promoting peace, prosperity and stability…We call on all parties to avoid the threat or use of force and pursue resolution of territorial and maritime disputes through all peaceful means, in accordance with universally recognized principles of international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea…Over the next five years, we will strengthen our regional dialogues, invest in making trilateral consultations with third countries in the region more robust, deepen regional integration, strengthen regional forums, explore additional multilateral opportunities for engagement, and pursue areas where we can build capacity in the region that bolster long-term peace and prosperity for all.”

Admiral Harris, quoted in India Strategic while in New Delhi to discuss Indo-US naval cooperation with India’s Naval Chief Admiral Dhowan, observed that cooperation between India, US and other major powers like Japan and Australia was imperative for peace and stability in the Asia Pacific. He noted that India plays a pivotal role in the U.S. naval strategy.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has provided a more activist Indian outlook on regional defense issues. Author C. Raja Mohan notes that Modi believes “India was punching below its weight and we (India) should now “improve our weight and punch proportionately.”
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Other nations have encouraged India to step up its defense activities.  Bloomberg News  reports that Singapore “wants India to play a bigger role in the South China Sea as China hastens land reclamation in the disputed waters that carry some of the world’s busiest shipping lanes…       [Singapore Minister For Defense Ng Eng Hen] stated in March that “We hope that their presence and participation will increase — that really adds up to engagement and confidence building and mutual understanding,” Ng said, referring to Asia’s third-biggest economy. “India is a big country and it’s an influential country.”

“India’s involvement in the region could give Southeast Asian nations a further buffer against China as that country seeks to enforce its claims to the majority of the South China Sea and push back against decades of U.S. military dominance in the Pacific. China is also looking to build a maritime trade route linking a network of ports through the Indian Ocean with Europe via the Suez Canal, a prospect that has unnerved India.”

The Philippines, which has endured China’s incursion into its Exclusive Economic Zone, and Vietnam both encourage an enhanced role for India. Vietnam’s Cam Ranh Bay is also a potential site for foreign naval vessels, particularly those of the United States, to base ships to discourage China’s adventurism. Currently, Russian naval vessels dock there.

According to the National Interest  “India now appears to be picking up the pace. Under the Modi government, New Delhi has turned the ‘Look East Policy’ into the ‘Act East Policy’, made direct comments on the need to resolve the [South China Sea dispute] signed a joint strategic vision with the U.S. for the Asia–Pacific and the Indian Ocean region and is in talks with key regional countries to increase security collaboration, especially in the maritime domain.”

The military rating source Global Firepower indicates that India has a powerful navy, consisting of 202 ships, including two aircraft carriers, 15 frigates, 9 destroyers, 25 corvettes, 15 submarines, 46 coastal defense craft, and 7 mine warfare vessels.

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China releases its Military Strategy paper

Beijing has increased its rate of military spending at a pace faster than either the Soviet Union or the U.S. during the height of the Cold War. It’s recently released military strategy document portrays the nation’s rise to military superpower status as defensive: (The text of China’s Military Strategy statement was recently released by the U.S. Naval Institute. The full document can be viewed at http://news.usni.org/2015/05/26/document-chinas-military-strategy. Quotes directly from it are in italics.)

“Building a strong national defense and powerful armed forces is a strategic task of China’s modernization drive and a security guarantee for China’s peaceful development. Subordinate to and serving the national strategic goal, China’s military strategy is an overarching guidance for blueprinting and directing the building and employment of the country’s armed forces. At this new historical starting point, China’s armed forces will adapt themselves to new changes in the national security environment, firmly follow the goal of the Communist Party of China (CPC) to build a strong military for the new situation, implement the military strategic guideline of active defense in the new situation, accelerate the modernization of national defense and armed forces, resolutely safeguard China’s sovereignty, security and development interests, and provide a strong guarantee for achieving the national strategic goal of the “two centenaries” and for realizing the Chinese Dream of achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”

The “two centenaries” reference is interesting. By 2020, unless the United States very quickly reverses the decline of its navy, China will have achieved a clear regional naval superiority over the United States. That time frame also incorporates the attainment of several other key goals.

The Diplomat publication http://thediplomat.com/2015/02/why-2020-is-a-make-or-break-year-for-china/ notes that “Those perusing China’s reform plans can’t help but notice a certain date popping up with surprising frequency: 2020. A number of key goals, all seemingly unrelated, are pegged to this date. By 2020, leaders say, China will: achieve a 60 percent urbanization rate; complete construction on the Chinese space station; become an “Internet power”; place a cap on coal use and transition to clean energy; and even (according to unofficial reports) have its first domestically-built aircraft carrier. [China’s current aircraft carrier was built abroad.] Perhaps most importantly, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has pledged that by 2020, China will be a “moderately well-off society” – meaning, in hard terms, that the per capita income in China will be double the 2010 figure. China will also attempt to double its current GDP in that same timeframe. [America’s GDP declined in the first quarter of 2015.] That, in turn, is supposed to help China establish its international image and build up soft power.” 2021 will also mark the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party.

The success of China’s military buildup is reflected in Beijing’s confidence of its new role in the world, as described in its military strategy document:

“Profound changes are taking place in the international situation, as manifested in the historic changes in the balance of power, global governance structure, Asia-Pacific geostrategic landscape, and international competition in the economic, scientific and technological, and military fields.”

Despite Beijing’s powerful armed forces, confidence in its growing power, and its lack of any substantive adversary—Moscow is now an ally, and the United States has sharply diminished its armed forces since fall of the Soviet Union—the document reveals a perception of threats:

“…China, as a large developing country, still faces multiple and complex security threats, as well as increasing external impediments and challenges. Subsistence and development security concerns, as well as traditional and non-traditional security threats are interwoven. Therefore, China has an arduous task to safeguard its national unification, territorial integrity and development interests.”
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The reference to “National unification” refers to its goal of incorporating Taiwan, a move opposed by the United States.

“As the world economic and strategic center of gravity is shifting ever more rapidly to the Asia-Pacific region, the US carries on its “rebalancing” strategy and enhances its military presence and its military alliances in this region. Japan is sparing no effort to dodge the post-war mechanism, overhauling its military and security policies. Such development has caused grave concerns among other countries in the region.”

Both comments overlook actual facts. The U.S. “rebalancing” is little more than public relations, since the dramatically shrunken U.S. Navy simply lacks the ships to make the move anything more than a paper shift.

A significant glimpse into China’s mindset can be obtained in the statement concerning the disputed offshore shoals, which Beijing has occupied and is now, in some instances, militarizing. While the document was expected to assert the nation’s position, a more belligerent attitude was taken:

“On the issues concerning China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests, some of its offshore neighbors take provocative actions and reinforce their military presence on China’s reefs and islands that they have illegally occupied. Some external countries are also busy meddling in South China Sea affairs; a tiny few maintain constant close-in air and sea surveillance and reconnaissance against China. It is thus a long-standing task for China to safeguard its maritime rights and interests. Certain disputes over land territory are still smoldering. The Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia are shrouded in instability and uncertainty. Regional terrorism, separatism and extremism are rampant. All these have a negative impact on the security and stability along China’s periphery.”

The reference to “close-in air and sea surveillance and reconnaissance” refers to U.S. actions in international waters and airspace, as defined under international law.

This document is a glimpse into Beijing’s self-justification for its militaristic rise, and its clear intention to hostilely dominate a portion of the globe vital to U.S. and western economic and security interests.

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China’s aggressiveness increases as U.S. sea power fades

China recently expressed anger that the U.S. and Japan coordinated their remarks regarding Beijing’s aggressive actions in the South China Sea.  That displeasure is highly indicative of China’s growing belief that it has achieved a position of military hegemony in the region.

Japan and the America have been allies for over half a century.  During the time period, an era of unprecedented peace and prosperity had taken hold.

Unfortunately, Washington has not acted like much of an ally lately.  The U.S. failed to provide either diplomatic or military aid to the Philippines when Beijing’s ships occupied a rich off-shore region belonging to Manila.  Similarly, it has failed to provide diplomatic assistance to Tokyo in the growing territorial dispute with China.

The confidence that Beijing;s military expresses when it criticizes the long-standing, appropriate, and globally beneficial relationship between Japan and America speaks volumes about the diminished state of the U.S. Navy, and the dramatic increase in China’s strategic and conventional armed strength, especially that of its naval forces.
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Confirming the contention made by the NEW YORK ANALYSIS OF POLICY & GOVERNMENT in the past, the Pentagon has now (rather belatedly) stated that Beijing’s military budget is considerably in excess of that publicly stated by that government. In its latest review of China’s military budget, it maintains that at least 20% more is actually spent.

THE NEW YORK ANALYSIS OF POLICY & GOVERNMENT continues to  maintain that the actual figure is higher still.  The People’s Liberation Army derives income from numerous private companies it owns or has substantial interest in. Further, it does not include numerous expense items that other governments include in their military budget.

As Beijing’s armed strength continues to grow and America’s continues to fade (the U.S. Navy is at its lowest level since before World War I) further acts of aggression, both in actual force of arms and in diplomatic forums, can be expected.