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U.S. Naval Supremacy in Pacific Ending

For a time span of approximately sixty years, the Pacific Ocean had been under the firm control of the United States, predominately due to the supremacy of its Navy.

But in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union, Washington adopted a belief that there were no great powers to challenge it.  The size of the fleet was reduced from 600 ships to 274 or less. Little attention was paid to the vast buildup on the other side of the vast Pacific, as China, buoyed by its enormous wealth, began its drive to become the largest naval power on the planet.

Under the Obama Administration, the reduced size of the American military was matched by a reluctance to employ U.S. armed strength or diplomatic muscle, as well as a reduction in funds to build for the future.

A vacuum was created, one which Beijing was all too eager to fill. A key turning point occurred when China’s navy illegally sailed into the Philippine-owned Scarborough Shoal. Despite American obligations to Manila and a subsequent World Court decision declaring the aggression unlawful, Washington failed to even lodge a diplomatic protest.

Within Washington, a sharp disagreement occurred. A majority of members of the relevant Congressional committees, joined by defense officials, began openly to worry about the danger. However, according to the Navy Times “The White House has barred Pentagon leaders from a key talking point when it comes to publicly describing the military challenges posed by China. In February, Defense Secretary Ash Carter cited the ‘return to great power of competition’ in the Asia-Pacific, ‘where China is rising.’ Similarly, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. John Richardson characterized China and Russia as rivals in this “great power competition” in his maritime strategy.”

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While the military could be ordered into silence, others could be more open.  The Scout.com site notes: “…the Chinese are reportedly working on a handful of high-tech next-generation ships, weapons and naval systems….China has plans to grow its navy to 351 ships by 2020 as the Chinese continue to develop their military’s ability to strike global targets, according to a recent Congressional report.

The English-language Chinamil.com notes “…by around 2020, China will have both the largest (at 351 ships) navy in the world (by combatant, underway replenishment, and submarine ship count) and the second most capable “far seas” navy in the world. The PLA Navy will have: A well balanced fleet in terms of the full range of naval capabilities…More modern multi-mission frigates (FFG) (30-32) than any other navy;… [and] A “new far seas” navy; all warships built in 21st century.

2020 will arrive in just  few short years, but the threat to the U.S. Navy already exists. A review in the Diplomat warns that China has a whole host of options to harass American carriers in the Asia-Pacific. Even if such efforts do not deliver a mission kill against a carrier, they could “be so consumed with defending themselves that they would not be able to use significant numbers of their aircraft for defending Taiwan.” He notes that “carriers operating within about a thousand miles of China’s coast, for example, would also be subject to attack by land-based Chinese Su-30 and J-11B fighters, JH-7 supersonic fighter bombers, and H-6 bombers, all of which can be armed with anti-ship cruise missiles.” It seems that while American carriers are certainly prepared to defend themselves, the sheer amount of challenges they would face could prove fatal.”

That description, dire as it is, fails to include two facts. China already has more submarines than the U.S. Navy.  Beijing also has another extraordinary weapon unique to the Chinese arsenal: the Dong Feng-21 missile. Based on land, it could attack an aircraft carrier a thousand miles at sea.

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China Expected to Reject Peaceful Resolution of Pacific Dispute

The world’s most dangerous maritime dispute is awaiting a ruling from the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague.China has unlawfully laid claim to almost the entire oceanic area known as the South China Sea, and which the Philippines call the West Philippine Sea.  It encompasses a 1,400,000 square mile region from Singapore and the Malacca Straits to the Strait of Taiwan. A third of the planet’s shipping transits through it, and huge deposits of oil and gas, as well as a wealth of fish, are contained within.The Philippines initiated proceedings against Beijing in accordance with the United Nations Law of the Sea.  International Law would classify maritime features, including hundreds of very small uninhabited spots, many of which are now questionably claimed and some occupied by China’s military, as rocks, low tide elevations, or submerged banks, but not islands, which overturns China’s claims to use those already disputed sites as a way to extend its claims over ocean areas.The Philippines simply seek to have the right to operate within its own exclusive economic zone restored and have access to its key offshore areas without Chinese harassment.China has already stated that it has no intention of abiding by the results, and rejects the jurisdiction of The Hague.  In other related disputes in the area, Beijing has not been cooperative in attempts to negotiate the issue through regional talks, preferring to deal separately with each national claimant, a tactic that allows it to use armed intimidation as an effective tool. China’s General Luo Yuan said his nation should be prepared for “war at all costs” to enforce its claims, according to a commentary posted on china.org.cn.

Writing in the Asia Times   National Security author Bill Gertz writes that “China’s takeover of the South China Sea is nearly complete and Beijing is now stepping up its sophisticated information warfare campaign in preparation for an expected unfavorable ruling from an international tribunal affecting its island claims… The strategic goal of China in the South China Sea is to solidify control over the waters without firing a shot, in much the same way as Russia was able to do with its military annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea in March 2014. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) refers to this as the use of “military soft power.”

During the past several years, unrestrained by a weakened American navy and an irresolute President, China has laid claim to most of the South China Sea region. The basis of China’s claim is what it describes as a “Nine Dash Line,” which, according to U.S. sources,  is “a Chinese map of the South China Sea showing nine line segments that, if connected, would enclose an area covering roughly 90% [of the entire region.] …The area inside the nine line segments far exceeds what is claimable as territorial waters under customary international law of the sea… and includes waters that are within the claimable [and internationally recognized]  (and in some places are quite near the coasts) of the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Vietnam.”

Under the Obama Administration, little of substance has been done to discourage China’s aggressive actions.  The White House has refused to side with America’s allies such as the Philippines or Japan when China engaged in provocative actions against those nations. Even as China used force in furtherance of its goals, all the U.S. Administration did was to encourage a “peaceful resolution,” an act which some has said was a betrayal of allies, and a complete denial of the rule of law which objective observers note rejects Beijing’s claims.

President Obama has emphasized what the Administration describes as a “pivot to Asia” of U.S. armed forces, in response to China’s actions.  However, the substance of the pivot involves comparatively little force, since the U.S. navy is now a shadow of its former size, the smallest it has been since before World War 1, and China, in contrast, has dramatically built up the size of its forces.  It now has more submarines than the U.S. Navy, and its fleet will outnumber America’s within four years.  Beijing also has extraordinary new land based weapons, such as the DF-21missile which can destroy American naval vessels at a distance of 900 miles.

The President has concluded agreements with Vietnam as a means to stiffen regional resistance. However, speaking in Hawaii, Mr. Obama denied the deal was aimed at China.

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