Russian-Iranian alliance – USA Gov Policy

It is increasingly evident that a substantial and growing military relationship between Russia, China and Iran exists.

Russia and China have held an extensive number of significant joint training exercises in both the Pacific and Mediterranean Oceans, and both continue to engage in weapons deals with Iran, a continuation of the policy in which Moscow has aided Iran’s nuclear program and provides anti-aircraft technology to protect sensitive sites.

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According to the International Business Times, “Russia and China will continue to make weapons deals with Iran under U.N. procedures… Russia currently has a deal in place from April to supply Iran with the S-300 missile defense system. It’s yet to be seen how it will be completed given that Iran is now banned from buying missile technology for eight years. The deal was said to be a gesture of good will for Iran’s co-operation in the negotiations.”

Iran’s possession of the S-300 system substantially strengthens the ability of Iran to violate the already weak restrictions of the recently concluded nuclear arms deal, since it will now have the means to protect violative atomic test sites from air strikes seeking to destroy them.

The Jerusalem Post has reported on a deal, originally revealed in the Taiwanese press in which China will provide Iran with 24 J-10 fighter jets in exchange for Chinese access to the Islamic Republic’s largest oil field for the next 20 years.

The Washington Free Beacon has revealed that Russian and Iran naval forces conducted joint war games in northern Iran, “in another combined show of force meant to display the two nations’ control of nearby waterways. An Iranian destroyer and team of Russian warships staged a series of war drills and engaged in joint training exercises, according to reports in Iran’s state-controlled press.” IB Times http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/russia-iran-stage-naval-war-games-showcase-combined-strength-1515122 notes that “The joint naval exercise shows increased military ties between Russia and Iran after the two countries signed multiple arms agreements in recent months.”

The Jerusalem Post has also monitored Iranian semi-official outlets which have reported that Iran, Russia, China and Syria are to conduct joint military exercises in Syria next month. Chinese and Russian warships as well as Russian nuclear submarines are to be involved.

According to the report, “China had gained Egyptian approval to allow 12 Chinese ships carrying military equipment to pass through the Suez Canal, and that these vessels would reach the Syrian ports of Tartous and Latakia in two weeks’ time.” No official sources from Syria, Russia, China or Iran had confirmed the war games would take place, and Russia has denied involvement.

Qassem Soleimari, the Iranian Quds force commander, recently met with Russian officials in Moscow, Fox News reports, citing intelligence sources. Soleimari is designated as a terrorist and is responsible for leading actions resulted in the deaths of numerous U.S. soldiers in Iraq. His Quds force also operates in Latin America.

According to the Middle East Forum “China’s new Middle East strategy is inimical to U.S. nonproliferation goals. Beijing may pledge to adhere to U.S. counter-proliferation policy, but its willingness to cultivate relations with Middle Eastern states, on the back of sales of both conventional weapons and materials applicable to weapons of mass destruction programs, indicates that its promises are insincere.”

Defense News notes that there is an indication of competition between Russia and China in their relationship with Iran. Both seek to sell their indigenous weapons systems to Tehran, particularly anti-aircraft missiles. To pursue that and other goals, it is expected that China’s President Xi will visit Iran in the near future. China has had a long-term relationship with Tehran’s government since the Islamic extremist takeover.

Despite the friendly rivalry, the three nations together serve as the most significant joint threat to the United States, Europe, and aligned nations across the globe to ever have emerged. Their combined massive geography, population, economic power, and scientific sophistication along with their strategic location and the contiguous land mass of the three produce a threat far greater than that endured during the Cold War, or even the German-Japanese alliance of World War Two.

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.