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Russia, China, North Korea, Iran: The Combined Threat

Several deeply disturbing international military actions were reported recently involving Iran, North Korea, China and Russia. It would be a serious mistake to consider these events in isolation, for they are, together, pieces of a coordinated threat that places the United States and its allies in increasing jeopardy.

The development of a powerful Iranian rocket, swiftly followed by another North Korean ICBM test, while Russia and China engaged in an extraordinary joint naval maneuver in the Baltic Sea sent a clear warning to the west. The actions headlined both the military prowess of each of the four nations involved, as well as the coordination and inter-cooperation of this unified threat.

According to the U.S. State Department “With its latest launch of a Simorgh space launch vehicle on 27 July, Iran has again demonstrated activity inconsistent with UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 2231. We condemn this action. This resolution calls upon Iran to not undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons, including launches using such technology like this launch. Space launch vehicles use technologies that are closely related to those of ballistic missiles development, in particular to those of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles. This step follows missile launches into Syria on 18 June and the test of a medium range ballistic missile on 4 July. Iran’s program to develop ballistic missiles continues to be inconsistent with UNSCR 2231 and has a destabilizing impact in the region. We call on Iran not to conduct any further ballistic missile launches and related activities. We are writing to the UN Secretary General with our concerns. The governments of France, Germany and the United Kingdom are discussing these issues bilaterally with Iran and are raising their concerns.”

Iran’s rocket launch was swiftly followed by a North Korean ICBM launch. The State Department  issued a similar statement: “The United States strongly condemns North Korea’s launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile, the second this month, in blatant violation of multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions that reflect the will of the international community. All nations should take a strong public stance against North Korea, by maintaining and strengthening UN sanctions to ensure North Korea will face consequences for its relentless pursuit of nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them. As the principal economic enablers of North Korea’s nuclear weapon and ballistic missile development program, China and Russia bear unique and special responsibility for this growing threat to regional and global stability.”

China and Russia were apparently not content to just “bear responsibility” for their client states. While those missile and rocket tests were underway, Beijing and Moscow engaged in a joint naval exercise in the Baltic Sea. The U.S. Naval Institute (USNI)  notes that the maneuver “is raising eyebrows in northern Europe, NATO headquarters and Washington.” The German publication DW writes “China and Russia are signaling to NATO that they are willing to cooperate militarily and deepen diplomatic ties with joint naval maneuvers currently taking place in the Baltic Sea…”
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The Chinese official organ People’s Daily described the joint operation: “The drill aims to develop China’s and Russia’s comprehensive strategic partnership, deepen friendly and pragmatic cooperation between the two armed forces…[the exercise is] the farthest from China for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy…‘an embodiment of confidence and power.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping added an exclamation point to China’s newly aggressive stance, including its alliance with Russia and its continued backing of North Korea, during a military parade held concurrently with its naval maneuvers in Europe in which his armed forces paraded its advance weaponry.  President Xi instructed his armed services to be an “elite force.”

According to Douglas Schoen and Melik Kaylan, authors of a study on the Moscow-Beijing alliance, the most formidable crisis facing the United States is the “unprecedented partnership developing between Russia and China…From their support for rogue regimes such as those in Iran, North Korea and Syria to their military and nuclear buildups…Moscow and Beijing are playing the game for keeps.”

There has been little discussion in the media about the interrelationship of these actions.  The inadequate analysis of the unified threat against the U.S. and its allies is a troubling reminder of the failure of many news outlets—and, inexcusably, many politicians–to comprehend the nature of the clear and present danger that is rapidly escalating.

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Russian-Chinese Alliance Threatens World Commerce

Largely unreported by the American media, Russia and China, the world’s most powerful military alliance, have developed the coordinated naval power more than sufficient to challenge not just the previously dominant position of the U.S. Navy, but the entire framework of international  commerce and freedom of navigation.

Reaction to The Hague Tribunal decision, which ruled that China’s maritime aggression is illegal, has illuminated an extraordinary threat faced not just by regional nations but by the entire world.

In response to the decision, Russia and China have ramped up their naval threats. The Sun reports that Russia and China will hold joint naval drills in September in the South China Sea.

Moscow backs Beijing’s unlawful claims, not just with words, but with the growing power of its own navy. The two oceanic superpowers have coordinated their efforts in recent years.

Last year, the two held a joint naval exercise, entitled “Joint Sea 2015 II.” The Russian news source RT  quotes military personnel from both nations calling the exercise an  “unprecedented show of military cooperation.” RT reports that it involved 22 ships, 20 aircraft, 40 armored vehicles, and 500 marines from the two countries, “including the Varyag missile cruiser, flagship of the Russian Pacific fleet; and the Shenyang destroyer, the Chinese flagship… The drills were held in Peter the Great Bay not far from the port-city of Vladivostok in Russia’s Far East, as the vessels conducted their training operations in both Russian territorial waters and neutral waters in the Sea of Japan. The joint naval exercises included anti-aircraft drills, drills to counter submarine attacks and sabotage, as well as simulations of attacks on enemy ships, while close air support featured the Varyag’s key asset – the Ka-27 strike helicopter. Russia’s flagship is also equipped with Russia’s legendary S-300 air defense system, and carries 64 interceptor missiles on board.”

The maneuvers didn’t just take place in the Pacific region.  The U.S. Naval Institute   notes that Chinese warships, including the frigates Linyi and Weifang left the Black Sea along with a Russian Navy guided missile corvette to begin the first ever round of Chinese and Russian naval exercises in the Mediterranean.

China has purchased some of Russia’s most advanced military equipment, while also developing its own naval weapons systems, some of which are unmatched anywhere, including a missile which, launched from land, can disable ships almost 1,000 miles away.
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Beijing already has a larger number of submarines than the U.S. Navy, and its overall fleet will exceed America’s by 2020.

Beijing’s growing naval power has given it the confidence and ability not just to ignore international law. Reuters  reported in June that Chinese spy ships have shadowed the U.S> aircraft Carrier USS John C. Stennis.

It’s not the first time the U.S. Navy was openly challenged by China.  In 2007, the Daily Mail reported that “American military chiefs have been left dumbstruck by an undetected Chinese submarine popping up at the heart of a recent Pacific exercise and close to the vast U.S.S. Kitty Hawk – a 1,000ft supercarrier with 4,500 personnel on board. By the time it surfaced the 160ft Song Class diesel-electric attack submarine is understood to have sailed within viable range for launching torpedoes or missiles at the carrier. According to senior NATO officials the incident caused consternation in the U.S. Navy. The Americans had no idea China’s fast-growing submarine fleet had reached such a level of sophistication, or that it posed such a threat.One Nato figure said the effect was “as big a shock as the Russians launching Sputnik” – a reference to the Soviet Union’s first orbiting satellite in 1957 which marked the start of the space age.The incident, which took place in the ocean between southern Japan and Taiwan, is a major embarrassment for the Pentagon.”

Other nations are being drawn into the Russian-Chinese axis.

As Turkey, a NATO member, moves further away from its western allies, it has moved closer to China. USNI reports that “The Chinese and Turkish air forces also exercised together in 2010 in central Turkey, which is the first time Chinese units had exercised together with a NATO country. More recently, Turkey decided to acquire a new air defense system from China, causing concerns in both Washington and in allied capitals in Europe about the interoperability with NATO and U.S. air and missile defense networks.”

Iran has purchased advanced Russian equipment, including anti-aircraft missiles, and continues its regular threatening actions against U.S. naval forces in its region.

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Russian, Chinese, Iranian, North Korean Axis Recognized

A  Russian news agency has openly discussed a dangerous international reality that the New York Analysis of Policy & Government has written about for several years, and which the White House and other isolationists have apparently ignored.

Russia, Iran, China and North Korea have formed an axis that is more powerful and dangerous than any other alliance ever formed—and that includes NATO.  It puts what used to be called the Free World in imminent peril.

According to Russia’s Sputnik news agency, “ Cooperation between Russia, Iran and China might signal a  formation of a new world paradigm, able to re-define the global situation in the world both politically and strategically; the recent developments in the relations between the three might be more significant than many realize…” Sputnik referred to comments by journalist Carol Gould on an Iranian TV program as a springboard for the candid comments.

Sputnik noted that “Xi Jinping [China’s leader] was the first international leader to head to Iran after the trade restrictions were removed and capped his visit with 17 agreements for cooperation in areas including energy, trade, and industry. The two countries also agreed to increase bilateral trade more than 10-fold to $600 billion in the next decade. In addition, Xi Jinping signed a joint statement with President Hassan Rouhani in support of Iran’s application for full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), advocated by both Russia and China.”

While Gould believes that the Russia-China-Iran axis is economically oriented, the facts speak otherwise. Russia has engaged in global military training maneuvers with China, and has supplied Iran with advanced military technology.  Beijing, which wholly finances North Korea’s existence, has refused to use its influence to limit Pyongyang’s growing nuclear and missile technology.

That refusal has become a topic within the U.S. presidential contest. Candidate Donald Trump has suggested that unless Beijing uses its overwhelming influence to reign in Pyongyang’s atomic program, Washington should impose trade restrictions on China.

Relations between Russia, China, Iran and North Korea are solidly grounded in the mutual interests of the four nations.  Each wishes to reduce or eliminate western, particularly American, influence across the planet. Russia has extensive global experience and advanced weapons technology that its axis partners crave. China’s economy provides the funding. Iran provides entrée into the strategically vital Middle East, and gets the protection and weapons technology it seeks in return. North Korea depends on China for its very existence, and uses its outsized military muscle (its army is larger than that of the United States) to keep Japan and South Korea off balance.
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Open belligerence against the United States is become increasingly apparent.

Despite the reduction in U.S. defense spending and the largely pacifist foreign policy of the Obama Administration, Russia, China and Iran continue to portray the U.S. as an aggressive power.

In Europe, Despite the shrinking U.S. military, the withdrawal of most American tanks, NATO’s  undersized spending, and Moscow’s ten to one advantage in tactical nuclear weapons in the region, Russia continues to prepare for combat.

Moscow’s new National Security Strategy Emphasizes cooperation with China, among others.

According to a review by the Center for Strategic and International Studies   “This strategy asserts that the U.S. and its allies are seeking to contain Russia in order to maintain their dominance of world affairs, which Russia’s independent foreign policy challenges. … The strategy also makes the somewhat puzzling assertion of the spread of U.S. “military-biological” labs near Russia’s borders. This most likely refers to a number of cooperative biological defense facilities set up with the governments of Georgia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, which some in Russia have viewed as a means to continue the development of biological weaponry, under cover of efforts to seek antidotes and defenses. The inclusion of this new “threat” in the doctrine may be an effort to lay the groundwork for countering U.S. accusations of Russian violations of other treaties, notably the INF treaty, with counter-accusations of its own.”

China continues to dramatically expand its military, adding cutting-edge technological weapons and rapidly closing in on its goal of becoming the world’s largest Navy by 2020.

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North Korean, Iranian nuclear weapons assist Russia & China

Within roughly the same time period, the two nations who have consistently produced the most violent anti-American rhetoric have made major strides in their ability to strike the U.S. homeland.

Iran’s defense minister Hossein Dehqan announced this month that a long-range surface-to-surface missile named ‘Emad,’ (Pillar) a new generation of ballistic missile built within Iran was test-fired successfully. The test is in violation of United Nations Resolution 1929, which forbids Tehran from ballistic missile testing. An additional resolution connected to the nuclear deal also forbids this activity.

Tehran’s advance was matched by North Korea’s recent announcement that a new version of its KN-08 missile is fully capable of striking the American mainland.

It has long been known that the Iran and North Korea have shared military technology.

The basic news about the two tests are worrisome in and of themselves, but there is an even greater danger posed by the fact that Russia and China appear to be intimately involved in Iran’s growing power, and neither have taken steps to rein in North Korea, which is heavily dependent on Beijing.

In August, it was reported  that a meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and visiting Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif resulted in an agreement to expand military cooperation between the two nations, including Russian delivery of anti-aircraft S-300 missiles to Iran. It has long been known that Moscow has supplied nuclear technology to Tehran.

The Iranian government is also benefiting from close ties with China. The Iranian News Agency reported that China has stated that Iran is a “strategic partner for international cooperation.”
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A Stanford study on Russian-Iranian relations notes that

“geopolitics and the desire for hegemony constitute another of the connective threads in Russian-Iranian relations…while the Islamic Republic of Iran was engaged in negotiations with the European Union and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on the fate of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, it was Russia (usually helped by China) that successfully blocked development of a joint policy and the passage of a United Nations resolution against Iran…

“Nuclear power is not the only element of the new relationship between Iran and Russia…Russia and Iran are especially interested in a US attempt to build a pipeline that would connect Central Asian gas fields to Europe.  The pipeline would end the Russian monopoly hold on Europe’s gas markets—a monopoly hold that Putin has been increasingly willing to use for politicial purposes.  Furthermore, US plans for the pipeline stipulate that it bypass Iran. As a result, the Islamic Republic and Russia have become inadvertent allies in averting the construction of the pipeline.  The two countries have even begun talking about creating, together with Algeria, an OPEC-like cartel of gas-producing countries of the world.”

China’s role in the new four-power alliance is vital. Douglas Schoen and Melik Kaylan, in their book “The Russia-China Axis,” report that:

“China does business with Iran [and] singlehandedly props up a North Korean regime that seems to be ever more volatile and dangerous. The Chinese have refused to discourage Pyongyang from building up its stockpile of nuclear warheads or from developing even more sophisticated and deadly nuclear weapons…While China positions itself as a supporter of sanctions against North Korea, it does nothing to help enforce them.  At heart, China doesn’t want the North Korean problem resolved. An intimidating, unpredictable North Korea keeps South Korea in check and the Americans off-balance in the Far East, while terrifying such staunch American allies as Japan and the Philippines.  This is all to the good, from the Chinese perspective…China’s facilitation is also essential to perhaps the most disturbing alliance of all:  the long-running Iran-North Korea ‘axis of proliferation’…All of these efforts are part of a broader Russian-Chinese goal: to build a counter-Western alliance of antidemocratic nations.”

Both Iran and North Korea, who profit economically and militarily from their relationships with Moscow and Beijing, are gaining the military technology, both conventional and nuclear, to engage in acts which distract the United States and its allies, and that deters western powers from countering Russian and Chinese aggression. There is a distinct possibility that Tehran and Pyongyang could at some point act as surrogates for Moscow and Beijing should those two decide to engage in direct assaults on western interests without taking the blame for their actions.

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The Iranian-Russian-Chinese axis

It is increasingly evident that a substantial and growing military relationship between Russia, China and Iran exists.

Russia and China have held an extensive number of significant joint training exercises in both the Pacific and Mediterranean Oceans, and both continue to engage in weapons deals with Iran, a continuation of the policy in which Moscow has aided Iran’s nuclear program and provides anti-aircraft technology to protect sensitive sites.

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According to the International Business Times, “Russia and China will continue to make weapons deals with Iran under U.N. procedures… Russia currently has a deal in place from April to supply Iran with the S-300 missile defense system. It’s yet to be seen how it will be completed given that Iran is now banned from buying missile technology for eight years. The deal was said to be a gesture of good will for Iran’s co-operation in the negotiations.”

Iran’s possession of the S-300 system substantially strengthens the ability of Iran to violate the already weak restrictions of the recently concluded nuclear arms deal, since it will now have the means to protect violative atomic test sites from air strikes seeking to destroy them.

The Jerusalem Post has reported on a deal, originally revealed in the Taiwanese press in which China will provide Iran with 24 J-10 fighter jets in exchange for Chinese access to the Islamic Republic’s largest oil field for the next 20 years.

The Washington Free Beacon has revealed that Russian and Iran naval forces conducted joint war games  in northern Iran, “in another combined show of force meant to display the two nations’ control of nearby waterways. An Iranian destroyer and team of Russian warships staged a series of war drills and engaged in joint training exercises, according to reports in Iran’s state-controlled press.” IB Times http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/russia-iran-stage-naval-war-games-showcase-combined-strength-1515122 notes that “The joint naval exercise shows increased military ties between Russia and Iran after the two countries signed multiple arms agreements in recent months.”

The Jerusalem Post has also monitored Iranian semi-official outlets which have reported that Iran, Russia, China and Syria are to conduct joint military exercises in Syria next month. Chinese and Russian warships as well as Russian nuclear submarines are to be involved.

According to the report, “China had gained Egyptian approval to allow 12 Chinese ships carrying military equipment to pass through the Suez Canal, and that these vessels would reach the Syrian ports of Tartous and Latakia in two weeks’ time.”  No official sources from Syria, Russia, China or Iran had confirmed the war games would take place, and Russia has denied involvement.

Qassem Soleimari, the Iranian Quds force commander, recently met with Russian officials in Moscow, Fox News reports, citing intelligence sources. Soleimari is designated as a terrorist and is responsible for leading actions resulted in the deaths of numerous U.S. soldiers in Iraq. His Quds force also operates in Latin America.

According to the Middle East Forum “China’s new Middle East strategy is inimical to U.S. nonproliferation goals. Beijing may pledge to adhere to U.S. counter-proliferation policy, but its willingness to cultivate relations with Middle Eastern states, on the back of sales of both conventional weapons and materials applicable to weapons of mass destruction programs, indicates that its promises are insincere.”

Defense News notes that there is an indication of competition between Russia and China in their relationship with Iran. Both seek to sell their indigenous weapons systems to Tehran, particularly anti-aircraft missiles. To pursue that and other goals, it is expected that China’s President Xi will visit Iran in the near future. China has had a long-term relationship with Tehran’s government since the Islamic extremist takeover.

Despite the friendly rivalry, the three nations together serve as the most significant joint threat to the United States, Europe, and aligned nations across the globe to ever have emerged. Their combined massive geography, population, economic power, and scientific sophistication along  with their strategic location and the contiguous land mass of the three produce a threat far greater than that endured during the Cold War, or even the German-Japanese alliance of World War Two.

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Russia-China Axis Threatens U.S.

Following the fall of the Soviet Union, many in Washington believed that American military might was unassailable in the larger strategic sense. While smaller, regional problems would inevitably rise, (Saddam Hussein’s Iraq being a prime example) the globe as a whole appeared to many as lacking the existential threat formerly posed by the U.S.S.R.

That very sense of security proved to be a key factor in the rise of threats that not only match but exceed those posed by the cold war—or, as it should now be known, Cold War 1.

China’s robust economy wasn’t sufficiently recognized as enabling that nation’s People’s Liberation Army to build a military that would allow it to rival America’s armed forces.  Sales of advanced supercomputers by the Clinton Administration to Beijing  substantially accelerated that process. Further, President Clinton’s signing of legislation that guaranteed trade relations with China enhanced Beijing’s economic rise while simultaneously weakening the manufacturing base upon which the American defense industry relies. Over the past several years, China’s aggression towards its neighbors has not been met with any significant response from Washington.

Powerful and confident, China has invaded the offshore Exclusive Economic Zone belonging to the Philippines, and taken numerous aggressive actions against its regional neighbors.

Vladimir Putin’s aggressiveness wasn’t sufficiently discouraged. The 2008 invasion of Georgia, the ongoing invasion of Ukraine incurred no significant response. Russia has engaged in a massive arms buildup, a restoration of Cold War 1 bases in Latin America, violations of arms accords, and nuclear patrols of European and American coastlines. It has militarized the Arctic. The West has not taken any sufficient counter-steps.

As worrisome as the individual actions of Moscow and Beijing are, it is the alliance between the two nations that is the most troubling.
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Russia, the planet’s geographically largest nation, and China, with the world’s largest population, have combined their strengths in an alliance clearly aimed at the United States. The two enormous states have engaged in extensive joint military exercises across the globe, have engaged in sales of military equipment, and have covered for each other’s military misdeeds in diplomatic forums.

The two have undertaken significant economic deals with each other. Russia’s vast supplies of energy are deeply attractive to China, and Beijing’s economic muscle is essential to the Kremlin’s lackluster economy. The Wall Street Journal has reported that the two have signed economic deals and a financing agreement worth about $25 billion. At the signing of the deal, Putin stated that “Today, China is our key strategic partner.”

Moscow’s foreign minister Lavrov was quoted in 2011 in the Russian news source RT  saying “Russian-Chinese relations are an optimal model of interaction between states…An optimal model of interstate relations has been formed on the basis of the Treaty. It is functioning successfully. It also meets the Russian and Chinese people’s national interests and attracts their full support…The past ten years have been marked by vigorous developments in all spheres and by the greatest successes in the history of the two nations. An intensive summit-level dialog is being maintained. Mutual political trust has become qualitatively stronger”

In their study of this extraordinary alliance, Douglas Schen and Melik Kaylan, in their new book “The Russian-China Axis” describe the cooperation between the two giant states:

“Militarily, the two nations are cooperating and collaborating like never before…Put simply, this coalition has the potential to permanently and fundamentally alter international relations.  It was envisioned as,  and it has functioned as, a counterweight to liberal democracy generally and the United States specifically…The Russia-China alliance—we call it a new Axis—already possesses extraordinary power, as it is clear not just with new economic and trade agreements and military cooperation but also in the areas of nuclear proliferation and cyber warfare.  Individually and together, Russia and China seek to undermine the social, economic, and political framework of democratic societies and our alliances in a way that has yet to be fully understood. Their efforts to do so are emboldened immeasurably by a United States that is losing the confidence and trust of its allies and partners around the world. “

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China’s Navy Takes Aggressive Posture

China’s massive increase in the sophistication and reach of its military prowess extends throughout the oceans of the world, and will soon approach the very coastline of the United States.

In further evidence of the growing alliance between China, Russia, and Iran, the Associated Press reports that a Chinese destroyer has, for the first time, docked in Iran. According to Iranian officials, the Chinese and Iranian naval forces will engage in joint drills and share technology.

Previously, China and Russia have conducted large joint maneuvers. Russia has assisted Iran’s nuclear program.

The news comes as the China Daily Mail reports that China is planning to deploy nuclear submarines along the U.S. coast.
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The Asian-based newspaper Nikkei notes that Beijing’s intentions can be gleaned from its officially sanctioned maps. The new, government-sanctioned versions illustrates indicate that government’s belief that the whole of the South China Sea, a vital international waterway, is within the jurisdiction of China.

The Nikkei quotes a Chinese government source stating that “Maps that show islands in the South China Sea and the Diaoyu Islands (the Chinese name for the Senkaku Islands) in one picture were a sign that the Xi leadership will take an aggressive policy in nearby waters.”

China has clashed diplomatically with Vietnam, Japan and the Philippines over territorial matters, as well as making threatening military moves towards those nations.  It has also been aggressive against U.S. Naval aircraft in international waters.