Russia tests its nuclear forces

Russia has conducted the second of two major military operations this Fall.

According to Russian Major General Yevgeny Ilyin the exercises, known as “Grom-2019 (Thunder-2019),” will involve military units of the Strategic Missile Forces, long-range and military transport aviation commands, military units of the Western, Southern, Central and Eastern Military Districts, as well as the Northern Fleet. The total number of participants exceeds 12,000 people.

Moscow plans to conduct 16 launches of cruise and ballistic missiles. Ten airfields throughout the country will be used.

Launches of air-launched cruise missiles and guided aircraft missiles will be carried out at four aviation training grounds of the Western, Southern, Central Military Districts and the Northern Fleet.

The launches of two RSM-50 ballistic missiles (SS-N-18) will be carried out to the Chizha training ground. In addition, the Yars intercontinental ballistic missile (SS-29) (a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile, which can carry three to four thermonuclear warheads of 300 kilotons) and the Sineva ballistic missile (SS-N-23) (a three-stage submarine-launched liquid-propellant ballistic missile which can be equipped with four high-speed small-sized unguided warheads with a capacity of 500 kilotons each. Its maximum range can exceed 11,000 kilometers) will be launched to the Kura training ground.

Launches of sea basing cruise missiles will be carried out at sea ranges in the Barents, Baltic, Black, Caspian seas, and the sea of Okhotsk.

213 Strategic Missile Forces launches will take place.

105 different-tasked aircraft of will be employed. Five of them are strategic missile carriers.

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15 surface ships and 5 missile-carrying nuclear submarines will be used as well.

In September, according to Radio Free Europe “Forces from China, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan joined Russia’s Central Joint Strategic Command (JSC) for exercises…’This year’s exercises [were] the biggest encompassing 128,000 personnel, 20,000 pieces of equipment and weapons, 600 aircraft and helicopters, and 15 warships,’ according to an analysis by the Jamestown Foundation.’ The 2019 exercises “look less like preparing for counterterrorist actions, than for inter-state war; this has been a feature of all Russian strategic exercises in recent years,” wrote the Jamestown Foundation.

Russia’s Ministry of Defense said that The “ Tsentr” 2019 strategic command post exercise “are the final stage of the complex of measures of operational and combat training of the Russian Armed Forces in the current year.”

The exercise, according to Moscow, was held in two stages. The first allegedly concerned command and control, repelling air strikes, and conducting reconnaissance and search actions.

During the second stage, the commanders and staffs practiced the control of grouping units and troops “when delivering a massive strike and conducting offensive operations to defeat a mock enemy.”

About 128,000 servicemen, more than 20,000 pieces of weapons and military hardware, about 600 aircraft and up to 15 ships and support vessels including 12,950 servicemen (military personnel of the Russian Federation up to 10,700, foreign states up to 2,250 people), up to 250 tanks, about 450 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, 200 artillery systems and MLRS were involved in Russia’s European territory.

An analysis by Azad Garibov, writing for the prestigious Jamestown Foundation, noted that “’According to Sputnik News, the maneuvers (September 16–21) “demonstrated to the world the unprecedented defensive capabilities of Russia on a scale completely inaccessible to the Pentagon and NATO [the North Atlantic Treaty Organization]” (Sputnik.kz, September 21).’

“The exercise was a clear attempt to showcase Russia’s military might…While being a message to the West about Russian military capabilities, Tsentr 2019 additionally signaled the importance of Central Asia to Moscow’s security considerations. And it has once more demonstrated the willingness of the Central Asian countries to accept Russia’s exceptional role in regional security affairs.”

Photo: Tsentr exercise (Russian Ministry of Defense)

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.