President Morales – USA Gov Policy

Bolivians have rejected attempts to destroy democracy and set their nation on a path towards dictatorship. Clearly, they did not want to become another Venezuela.

The situation, according to the U.S. State Department, unfolded over the course of several years.

The 2009 constitution limits a president to two consecutive terms of office. In a referendum in 2016, voters defeated a bid by President Evo Morales to procure public support to remove those term limits. But his government rejected that result and the next year, in 2017, he obtained permission from the constitutional court – a constitutional court essentially controlled by his supporters – to run again for president, in spite of the limits imposed by the constitution in that 2016 referendum. Despite these actions, Bolivians went to the polls on October 20th, hoping for a credible and transparent election, but only to find irregularities on the day of voting, and this included an abrupt suspension of transmission of preliminary election results. And after that, civil society groups quickly organized and larger and larger protests have occurred throughout the country for these weeks since. After three weeks of violent protests that resulted in death and property destruction, Morales resigned.

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The Organization of American States (OAS) released a report that cited egregious irregularities and evidence of manipulation of the vote. They recommended new elections take place with a new electoral court. Morales realized his situation had become untenable. He, his vice president, senior officials, elected officials, and many other ministers followed suit and resigned, claiming that they had been the victims of a coup. That left the nation in chaos, since there was no clear constitutional successor to Morales, who has fled the nation for asylum in Mexico. The Bolivian constitution requires that elections be held within 90 days.

Morales enacted basically socialist policies America’s Quarterly notes that “On his 100th day in office, he nationalized Bolivia’s oil and gas reserves, sending the military to secure the fields, and giving foreign companies six months to comply with the new mandate or leave” but did so on a more practical basis than Venezuela. This allowed the nation to at least temporarily avoid the immediate devastation that would inevitably result. But a significant portion of the economy relies on the illegal drug trade.

On November 8, The White House Office of National Drug Control Policy released the U.S. Government’s annual estimates of coca cultivation and cocaine production potential for Bolivia. According to these estimates, Bolivia remains the third largest producer of cocaine in the world. Bolivia’s coca cultivation totaled 32,900 hectares in 2018, an increase of 6 percent over 2017, increasing cocaine production potential by 2 percent to 254 metric tons. The Yungas region remained the largest coca cultivation area in Bolivia, while the combined Carrasco and Chapare regions represent the second largest. Cultivation is 50 percent over the limit established by the Bolivian government by an estimated 10,900 hectares. That means that President Morales should feel right at home in Mexico, where drug cartels wield considerable power.

In a release, The U.S. State Department stated that the United States “…fully support[s] the OAS and Bolivian calls for new elections and a new Electoral Tribunal that can ensure free and fair elections that reflect the will of the Bolivian people. In order to restore credibility to the electoral process, all government officials and officials of any political organizations implicated in the flawed October 20 elections should step aside from the electoral process. We urge the OAS to send a mission to Bolivia to oversee the new electoral process and to ensure that the new Electoral Tribunal is truly independent and reflects a broad swath of Bolivian society. The Bolivian people deserve free and fair elections. We call on everyone to refrain from violence during this tense time and we will continue to work with our international partners to ensure that Bolivia’s democracy endures.”

Map: CIA

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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