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China’s View of its Military Status, Part 2

Yesterday, the New York Analysis of Policy and Government discussed how some leading U.S. politicians downplay the growing threat from China. Beijing has released a white paper outlining its own views on its military and foreign policy status. We present key excerpts:

CHINA’S NATIONAL DEFENSE IN THE NEW ERA

International Security Situation

The world today is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century… there are prominent destabilizing factors and uncertainties in international security. The world is not yet a tranquil place.

The International Strategic Landscape Is Going Through Profound Changes

As the realignment of international powers accelerates and the strength of emerging markets and developing countries keeps growing, the configuration of strategic power is becoming more balanced…

China’s Security Risks and Challenges Should Not Be Overlooked

China continues to enjoy political stability, ethnic unity and social stability. There has been a notable increase in China’s overall national strength, global influence, and resilience to risks. China is still in an important period of strategic opportunity for development.

The fight against separatists is becoming more acute. The Taiwan authorities, led by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), stubbornly stick to “Taiwan independence” and refuse to recognize the 1992 Consensus, which embodies the one-China principle. They have gone further down the path of separatism by stepping up efforts to sever the connection with the mainland in favor of gradual independence, pushing for de jure independence, intensifying hostility and confrontation, and borrowing the strength of foreign influence. The “Taiwan independence” separatist forces and their actions remain the gravest immediate threat to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and the biggest barrier hindering the peaceful reunification of the country. External separatist forces for “Tibet independence” and the creation of “East Turkistan” launch frequent actions, posing threats to China’s national security and social stability.

China’s homeland security still faces threats. Land territorial disputes are yet to be completely resolved. Disputes still exist over the territorial sovereignty of some islands and reefs, as well as maritime demarcation. Countries from outside the region conduct frequent close-in reconnaissance on China by air and sea, and illegally enter China’s territorial waters and the waters and airspace near China’s islands and reefs, undermining China’s national security.

Global Military Competition Is Intensifying

International military competition is undergoing historic changes. New and high-tech military technologies based on IT are developing rapidly. There is a prevailing trend to develop long-range precision, intelligent, stealthy or unmanned weaponry and equipment. War is evolving in form towards informationized warfare, and intelligent warfare is on the horizon.

China’s national defense aims:

• to oppose and contain “Taiwan independence”;

• to crack down on proponents of separatist movements such as “Tibet independence” and the creation of “East Turkistan”;

• to safeguard national sovereignty, unity, territorial integrity and security;

• to safeguard China’s maritime rights and interests;

• to safeguard China’s security interests in outer space, electromagnetic space and cyberspace;

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• to safeguard China’s overseas interests; and

• to support the sustainable development of the country

China resolutely safeguards its national sovereignty and territorial integrity. The South China Sea islands and Diaoyu Islands are inalienable parts of the Chinese territory. China exercises its national sovereignty to build infrastructure and deploy necessary defensive capabilities on the islands and reefs in the South China Sea, and to conduct patrols in the waters of Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea. To solve the Taiwan question and achieve complete reunification of the country is in the fundamental interests of the Chinese nation and essential to realizing national rejuvenation.

Implementing the Military Strategic Guideline for a New Era

Building a fortified national defense and a strong military commensurate with the country’s international standing and its security and development interests is a strategic task for China’s socialist modernization. Drawing lessons from history, China strengthens its national defense and military to provide security guarantee for its peaceful development.

Efforts will be made to advance the integrated development of mechanization and informationization, speed up the development of intelligent military, create a modernized military force structure with Chinese characteristics, improve and develop socialist military institutions with Chinese features, and constantly enhance the capabilities to fulfill the missions and tasks in the new era.

Fulfilling the Missions and Tasks of China’s Armed Forces in the New Era

The PLA Navy (PLAN) has extended training to the far seas and deployed the aircraft carrier task group for its first far seas combat exercise in the West Pacific

Safeguarding Interests in Major Security Fields

Nuclear capability is the strategic cornerstone to safeguarding national sovereignty and security. China’s armed forces strengthen the safety management of nuclear weapons and facilities, maintain the appropriate level of readiness and enhance strategic deterrence capability to protect national strategic security and maintain international strategic stability.

Outer space is a critical domain in international strategic competition. Outer space security provides strategic assurance for national and social development. In the interest of the peaceful use of outer space, China actively participates in international space cooperation, develops relevant technologies and capabilities, advances holistic management of space-based information resources, strengthens space situation awareness, safeguards space assets, and enhances the capacity to safely enter, exit and openly use outer space.

Cyberspace is a key area for national security, economic growth and social development. Cyber security remains a global challenge and poses a severe threat to China. China’s armed forces accelerate the building of their cyberspace capabilities, develop cyber security and defense means, and build cyber defense capabilities consistent with China’s international standing and its status as a major cyber country. They reinforce national cyber border defense, and promptly detect and counter network intrusions. They safeguard information and cyber security, and resolutely maintain national cyber sovereignty, information security and social stability.

China’s armed forces… have made great progress in independent innovation in some strategic, cutting-edge and disruptive technologies, and succeeded in developing strategic hi-tech products such as the Tianhe-2 supercomputer. Focusing on war and fighting wars, China’s armed forces have innovated in military doctrines and delivered outcomes in military strategy, joint operations and informationization, which have provided a theoretical support to defense and military development.

Establishing a modernized weaponry and equipment system

China’s armed forces are optimizing the overall composition of weaponry and equipment, coordinating the efforts of all services and arms in this regard, promoting the balanced development of main battle equipment, information systems, and support equipment, with a view to comprehensively raising standardization, serial development and interoperability. Old equipment is being phased out, and a system created that mainly comprises new and high-tech weaponry and equipment. Type 15 tanks, type 052D destroyers, J-20 fighters, and DF-26 intermediate and long-range ballistic missiles have been commissioned.

Photo: Russian military band perform during an event to welcome Chinese missile destroyer “Xi’an” of the 32nd Chinese naval escort fleet in St. Petersburg, Russia, July 24, 2019. Chinese missile destroyer “Xi’an” of the 32nd Chinese naval escort fleet arrived here Wednesday for a visit and would participate in the event to celebrate Russia’s Navy Day. (Xinhua/Lu Jinbo)

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China Prepares for War, Part 2

There can be little dispute that China is preparing for a new, violent, and dangerous role in world affairs.

According to Beijing’s own official report issued on January 4 ,

“President Xi Jinping Friday ordered the Chinese armed forces to enhance their combat readiness from a new starting point and open new ground for developing a strong military. Xi, also general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), made the instruction at a CMC meeting held in Beijing…‘The world is facing a period of major changes never seen in a century, and China is still in an important period of strategic opportunity for development,’ he said, warning that various risks and challenges were on the rise.’The entire armed forces should have a correct understanding of China’s security and development trends, enhance their awareness of danger, crisis and war, and make solid efforts on combat preparations in order to accomplish the tasks assigned by the Party and the people’ Xi said.

“Regarding combat capability as the only and fundamental criterion, Xi ordered all work, forces and resources to focus on military preparedness and ensure a marked progress in this regard. Xi stressed the armed forces’ ability to respond quickly and effectively to contingencies, asking them to upgrade commanding capability of joint operations, foster new combat forces, and improve military training under combat conditions. Party and government departments and agencies at the central and local levels are required to support the defense and military development…”

Writing in The Hill Harry Kazianis, director of Defense Studies at the Center for National Interest reported that “China seems to be making various types of threatening comments with increasing frequency — along with increasingly bold claims backed up by actions that threaten the peace and stability of the region… ‘The likelihood of the PRC (People’s Republic of China) going to war with the United States over the next decade is increasing as the timeline for achieving the ‘China Dream’ of the restoration of China’s perceived sovereign territory compresses,’ explained retired U.S. Navy Capt. Jim Fanell, a former U.S. Pacific Fleet intelligence director… While I firmly believe the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) prefers to use non-kinetic means to achieve President Xi’s ‘great rejuvenation’ of the PRC, as was done at Scarborough Shoal in 2012, the pressure to use military force to achieve the restoration of all of China’s disputed territories by 2049 (the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic) will reach a critical decision point over the next 10 years. Ian Easton, a scholar with the Project 2049 Institute, reached a similar conclusion. ‘We can only speculate about the future, but the current trend lines are concerning.” Xi, he points out, has “purged senior leaders in the Chinese Communist Party and created a culture of fear in the ranks of the military and across the regime. It is unlikely that anyone is going to tell him anything he does not want to hear. That greatly increases the risk of him making tragic a mistake.’ It might seem inconceivable that China would launch any sort of military action against the United States. But Beijing’s leaders, thinking their national strength has peaked, could decide to make the ultimate gamble… If China sees its rise plateauing or starting to decline, it might strike rather than wait.’”

Rarely, some of the men may need special tests for checking the nerve function, blood vessels, and blood flow in the penile region. cheap sildenafil tablets This medicine is metabolized by enzymes found inside the testes and seminal buy cheapest cialis davidfraymusic.com ducts. If in any case you could not avoid from the impotence problem uk cialis is the fact that the medication is 100% natural and organic. Moreover, the pills of uk viagra prices femodene ED need to be taken at a specific time or location, as you would be with a local course. Don Lee and David Cloud of the Los Angeles Times, writing in American Military News,   explain  that “China is building a modern military, one that within a decade could be capable of challenging U.S. dominance in the western Pacific. Some scholars and military strategists see an inevitable clash as the two countries jockey to project power and influence… The new assertiveness posed a direct challenge to America’s postwar role promoting stability and free trade in the western Pacific. Starting with President Barack Obama, the U.S. response was a slow — and critics say still inadequate and inconsistent — ratcheting up of pressure.”

In his testimony to the House Intelligence Committee,   Richard D. Fisher, Jr, Senior Fellow International Assessment and Strategy Center, emphasized that “Historically, China’s Communist Party would hide military goals such as becoming the world’s dominant power in any or all domains. It would not announce such goals in press conferences or White Papers. Instead it would ritually deny such goals so as to discourage the United States and its Allies from preparing sufficiently to defend themselves. However, China recently has begun to acknowledge in its official statements that it plans to project military power beyond Asia. But the Chinese leadership continues to ritually deny that it seeks ‘hegemony’ or ‘world domination.’ …China’s denials are undermined by China’s actions…

“Chinese actions suggesting larger goals include: budding Chinese strategic cooperation with Russia; China’s building of alternate institutions that challenge U.S. leadership; China’s ongoing attempt to change the Latin American balance of power by encouraging a second war over the Falklands Islands; and indications China will militarize the Moon.

“Furthermore, China’s two decades average of near double-digit growth in defense spending, growing PLA power projection forces, and China’s drive to create or obtain greater overseas military access combine to suggest the trajectory of China’s development toward global military power. China’s creation of new military bases in the Spratly Island group — and its potential creation of nuclear, naval and air bases on Taiwan, should that island democracy be conquered — point to an early objective of isolating and coercing Asian democracies such as Japan and the Philippines, leading to great pressure to end their alliances with the United States. China will also seek greater military access in the Indian Ocean to further contain India, while political influence, military engagement, and debt default acquisitions will accelerate PLA access in Latin America and Africa It can be expected that the actions of a globally powerful China toward the world’s free societies will be informed by the CCP’s pervasive domestic suppression of democratic impulses, freedom of expression, religion, and domestic dissent. A Chinese conquest of Taiwan could provide a stark demonstration of the CCP’s organized and brutal suppression of democracy. Today, China’s loud criticism of democracy, and its potential to promote a rebranded Marxism, suggest that overarching anti-democratic and anti-American ideological campaigns could underscore China’s drive for global power projection.”

The Report Continues Tomorrow

Photo: Soldiers assigned to a unit under the PLA Rocket Force prepare DF-16 ballistic missile systems during training on January 3, 2019. (eng.chinamil.com.cn/Photo by Zhang Feng)

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China Prepares for War

The Chinese government is engaging in all the actions relevant to the preparation of a significant military action. That’s not merely the opinion of western analysts; it is, indeed, Beijing’s stated policy.

The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission  notes that “Over a quarter century ago, Deng Xiaoping famously instructed his countrymen to ‘hide your capabilities and bide your time’ and to ‘absolutely not take lead’ in world affairs. The last hint of this formulation for a cautious and conservative Chinese role in the world faded into history this year. The China that emerged from last October’s 19th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) could not be more opposite in tone or bearing. Having amassed all titles of authority and successfully removed term limits on himself, Xi Jinping announced a ‘new era’ that sees his China ‘moving closer to the world’s center stage’ and offering a ‘Chinese approach’ to solving problems. Although the CCP emphasizes China’s peaceful rise and the ‘shared prosperity’ it claims to bring the world, this rhetoric conceals a coordinated, long-term effort to transform China into a dominant global power …many aspects of China’s attempts to seize leadership have undoubtedly put at risk the national security and economic interests of the United States, its allies, and its partners.”

The U.S.-China Commission’s latest report provides specifics:

  • U.S.-China security relations remain tense due to serious disagreements over issues such as China’s continued coercive actions in regional territorial disputes, espionage and cyber activities, and influence operations. The tenor of the relationship was reflected in President Xi’s public warning to visiting U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis that China would not tolerate the loss of a “single inch” of its territorial claims.
  • The People’s Liberation Army continues to extend its presence outside of China’s immediate periphery by increasing air and maritime operations farther from its shores, expanding presence operations in disputed areas in the East and South China seas (maintaining troops and building a pier at China’s sole overseas military base in Djibouti, deploying more advanced combat units to UN peacekeeping operations, and conducting more complex bilateral and multilateral overseas exercises.)
  • Tensions and the potential for accidents, miscalculation, and escalation between China and Japan intensified in the East China Sea as China sailed a number of naval vessels close to the Senkaku Islands and increased its military presence in the area. Based on the terms of the U.S.-Japan Mutual Defense Treaty, China’s increasing military activity near the Senkakus constitutes a challenge to U.S. security guarantees to Japan.
  • China took new steps to consolidate its military posture and improve its ability to project power into the South China Sea, as President Xi proclaimed at the 19th Party Congress the success of China’s islandbuilding efforts. Chinese forces are now capable of overpowering any other South China Sea claimant, challenging U.S. presence operations in the region, and presenting a significant obstacle to the U.S. military during a conflict. China deployed advanced antiship and surface-to-air missiles to its Spratly Island outposts for the first time, demonstrating its ability to create a military buffer around the southern reaches of the South China Sea.
  • Following their land border dispute in 2017, strategic jockeying in 2018 between China and India expanded to include New Delhi’s maritime interests in the Indian Ocean.
  • China continued to deepen its partnerships with Russia, Iran, and Pakistan and leveraged the relationships to challenge U.S. security and economic interests. During a high-level visit to Russia, China’s defense minister stated that China’s visit was intended to demonstrate the depth of China-Russia strategic cooperation to the United States and to the world. China’s purchase of advanced weapons systems from Russia resulted in the United States applying sanctions against China’s Equipment Development Department, a key military body.
  • China’s arms exports continued to grow in volume and sophistication in 2018, although they remain limited to low- and middle-income countries and trail in value compared to U.S. and Russian sales.

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The Report Continues Tomorrow

Photo: China’s People’s Liberation Army drill (PLA ) 

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China Gaining Military Advantage

Defense Secretary Mattis has announced that Wei Fenghe,  China’s Minister of National Defence and a member of the Central Military Commission, will visit Washington this week.

The potential of armed conflict with China exceeds the danger posed by the Cold War threat of conflict with the Soviet Union.  With a weak economy, Moscow faced, despite the vast size of its powerful conventional military, a substantial dependence on nuclear arms, a fact of life that exists for the Kremlin today as well. But the reality of a counterstrike by the American nuclear arsenal would have made any gains Russia hoped to obtain from a first strike a pyrrhic victory, at best.

Beijing neither suffers from a weak economy, nor is it dependent solely on nuclear arms to gain military superiority.

China’s leaders have another advantage: a recognition that the use of “soft power” can win allies, a tactic the USSR didn’t quite master. The Soviet Union depended on allying with western leftists, particularly in the nuclear freeze movement, and with revolutionaries in a number of regions.  However, its failed economy and its overt belligerence failed to sway much of the global population, aside from those blinded by allegiance to socialist propaganda.

China has commenced a cold war with the west, but many seem reluctant to acknowledge that reality.  However, Beijing displays no reticence in its threatening actions. In a speech broadcast On China Central Television, monitored by The Scottish Sun leader-for-life President Xi told officers of his Southern Theatre Command: “It’s necessary to strengthen the mission … and concentrate preparations for fighting a war…We need to take all complex situations into consideration and make emergency plans accordingly…”

China expert Seth Cropsey, in a Wall Street Journal  article noted that “Vice President Mike Pence announced a turning point in Washington’s relations with Beijing. In a speech Oct. 4 at the Hudson Institute, he acknowledged that four decades of attempts by the U.S. to make China a ‘stakeholder’ in global norms and institutions had failed. The White House now promises to shift relations accordingly.”

Here, viagra uk we have an expert team of designers, developers and internet marketers, many of which are helpful in erectile function. (Remember, the spongy tissue contains smooth muscles, fibrous tissues, spaces, veins, and arteries.The flow of blood creates pressure in the corpora cavernosa, making the penis expand. Sildenafil contained medicines are used with some safety tips. getting viagra appalachianmagazine.com The credit should be given to the internet which offers effective medicines. 20mg levitra canada Buy Taparia hand tools online as they have a number of queries about the medication and they surf through multiple pages prescription order viagra without to clear their doubts. An Economic Times analysis finds that “The bitter trade dispute between China and the US is increasingly spilling into the military domain.”

The Rand Institute’s Michael Spirtas reports that “China has built island outposts in the South China Sea, has challenged Japan, the Philippines and other East Asian states over territorial claims and continues to threaten Taiwan. Both Russia and China have invested in capabilities to defeat U.S. aircraft and threaten its air bases and aircraft carriers that would raise the cost of opposing them, and could even defeat the United States in a major war.”

America’s Asian allies have taken note of China’s growing belligerence. J. Berkshire Miller, writing for the Nikkei Asian Review states that “Japan must respond to China’s growing naval power… China is upgrading its People’s Liberation Army Navy as it confronts Japan… China also continues to expand military capabilities in the South China Sea to put itself in the position to potentially deny access to a region that is criss-crossed by trade routes…”

Bill Gertz, in a Free Beacon review, notes that China is rapidly building space weapons and other advanced arms infused with artificial intelligence capabilities as part of its bid for military dominance, according to a Congressional sponsored study. Anti-satellite missiles and orbiting killer satellites, swarms of attack drones, hypersonic missiles, maneuvering warheads, lasers, and high-speed rail guns are key systems China is fielding in the coming years in a bid to leap ahead of the U.S. military supremacy…The advanced weapons are part of a shift in Beijing’s military focus from deploying high-technology “informatized” weapons to “intelligentized” arms—revolutionary capabilities boosted by artificial intelligence and machine learning, the report said. …The report also concludes the United States is falling behind China in the development of advanced weapons and will have to hurry to avoid being overtaken. “The United States has a small window, only a decade at most, to develop new capabilities and concepts for countering China’s advanced weapons programs,” the report said.

Retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges,  writing in the Military Times, notes the Associated Press’s Vanessa Gera, believes the U.S. is likely to be in a military conflict with China within 15 years.

Photo: A Type 96 main battle tank (MBT) attached to an artillery unit stationed in northwest China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region spits fire down range at mock targets during a live-fire test on October 25, 2018. (eng.chinamil.com.cn/Photo by Tang Yayun)

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China’s Hypersonic Technology Leads World

Su-30 fighter jets attached to an aviation regiment with the PLA Air Force taxi towards the runway before takeoff during the live-fire flight training in north China on January 3, 2018. (eng.chinamil.com.cn/Photo by Tang Huaihui)

 

China’s extraordinary advances in hypersonic technology, giving the world’s most populous nation a lead in this crucial field, should be the final conclusion of an international strategic concept long and mistakenly held by some civilian analysts.  Despite the fact that China has had more people at arms, artillery, tanks and ships (though smaller in tonnage) than the United States, some long believed that America’s technological lead nullified that imbalance.

The idea was already growing obsolete, as Beijing moved forward with major scientific breakthroughs such as unique tactical missiles, advanced aircraft, and a military capability to destroy orbiting satellites.

The advances of the “People’s Liberation Army” (PLA) in hypersonic aircraft and missiles undeniably highlights the arrival of China as, at the very least, the overall technological equal of the United States, and its superior in some areas.

According to reports from the South China Morning Post,  Beijing’s scientists have developed a unique “I” plane, (so-called for the shadow created by its’s unique design), currently being tested in a scaled-down version, that could fly at seven times the speed of sound while eventually carrying dozens of personnel, or tons of cargo and bombs from Asia to New York in just two hours, travelling at 3,700 miles per hour.
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Stephen Chen, who prepared the report, said a key Chinese source believes the aircraft is “a game changer” due the significant and unique capability it gives Beijing’s military leaders. The fact that it could it deliver a nuclear weapon that current missile defenses would be hard-pressed to stop is only part of the challenge. It’s ability to deliver a non-nuclear payload faster and more reliably than anything currently in existence gives the PLA an advantage not currently possessed by the United States.  It should be noted, however, than Russian President Vladimir Putin, in his recent state of the nation address, claimed that his country had just developed similar technology. Russia and China have been known to share military technology.

Admiral Harry Harris, the Commander of America’s Pacific Command, (PACOM) recently testified before the House of Representatives’ Armed Service Committee. He noted:

“China’s impressive military buildup could soon challenge the U.S. across almost every domain.  Key advancements include fielding significant improvements in missile systems, developing 5th generation fighter aircraft capabilities, and growing the size and capability of the Chinese navy, to include their first-ever overseas base in the port of Djibouti.  They are also heavily investing into the next wave of military technologies, including hypersonic missiles, advanced space and cyber capabilities, and artificial intelligence.  If the U.S. does not keep pace, PACOM [Pacific Command] will struggle to compete with the People’s Liberation Army on future battlefields…China’s ongoing military buildup, advancement, and modernization are core elements of their strategy to supplant the U.S. as the security partner of choice for countries in the Indo-Pacific, but China also holds clear global ambitions.  But don’t take my word for it.  Just listen to what China says itself:  At the 19th Party Congress, President Xi stated he wanted China to develop a ‘world class’ military and become a “global leader in terms of composite national strength and international influence.”

Before advancing into manned aircraft, China achieved success in hypersonic technology for use in missiles.

Late last year, Russian sources reported  that “The Chinese military has successfully flight-tested a new ballistic missile-launched hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV)…The People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) in November conducted two separate test flights of the DF-17 ballistic missile with hypersonic glide vehicles..According to [a] US official, this was “the first HGV test in the world using a system intended to be fielded operationally…HGVs differ from conventional ballistic missile systems in several significant ways. According to Popular Mechanics, “HGVs travel under the gaze of traditional ballistic missile radars, flying lower than existing ballistic missile defense radars typically scan. This makes them difficult to defend against…”

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China Matches U.S. in Military Prowess, Part 2

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government continues its review of China’s growing military power. 

Beijing already has a larger number of submarines than the U.S. Navy, and its overall fleet will exceed America’s by 2020. It’s growing naval power has given it the confidence and ability [to do more than] ignore international law. Reuters  has reported that Chinese spy ships have shadowed the U.S. aircraft Carrier USS John C. Stennis. It’s not the first time the U.S. Navy was openly challenged by China.  In 2007, the Daily Mail reported that “American military chiefs have been left dumbstruck by an undetected Chinese submarine popping up at the heart of a recent Pacific exercise and close to the vast U.S.S. Kitty Hawk – a 1,000ft supercarrier with 4,500 personnel on board. By the time it surfaced the 160ft Song Class diesel-electric attack submarine is understood to have sailed within viable range for launching torpedoes or missiles at the carrier.

According to senior NATO officials the incident caused consternation in the U.S. Navy. The Americans had no idea China’s fast-growing submarine fleet had reached such a level of sophistication, or that it posed such a threat. One NATO figure said the effect was “as big a shock as the Russians launching Sputnik” – a reference to the Soviet Union’s first orbiting satellite in 1957 which marked the start of the space age. The incident, which took place in the ocean between southern Japan and Taiwan, is a major embarrassment for the Pentagon.” [The New York Analysis will provide a longer review of China’s naval strength tomorrow.]

A review in the South China Morning Post  (in conjunction with the Associated Press) highlighted ten weapons that Beijing has unveiled over the past several years that underscore its rising military sophistication. They include:

  • the DF-26 missile, intermediate-range ballistic missile dubbed the “Guam killer”, with its 4,000km range putting it within striking distance of the US naval base at Guam;
  • the DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile known as a carrier-killer with a maximum range of 1,450km;
  • the DF-5B The liquid-fuelled intercontinental ballistic, which can carry three or more nuclear warheads with a range of up to 15,000km;
  • the WZ-19 helicopter used to attack tanks and other heavy targets;
  • the Y-9 transport aircraft, a design platform for the air force’s early warning aircraft KJ-200 and KJ-500;
  • the H-6K nuclear strike strategic bomber; the ZTL-09 armored vehicle, with a 105mm gun that can destroyed armored targets over 2km away;
  • the ZTZ-99A main battle tank with a 125mm smoothbore gun and carousel-style autoloader
  • ; the ZBD-04 Infantry fighting vehicle; and
  • the HQ-10/FL-3000N short-range air-defense missile, capable of expanding the navy’s force projection capability. The weapon is mounted on the navy’s most advanced Type 052D  destroyers and Type 056 frigates.

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To take the fullest advantage of its new technology and weaponry, Beijing is modernizing all aspects of its armed forces.

The English language edition of China’s Xinhua news source reports that. “China aims to complete the reform of its 2.3-million-strong army and have the most modern armed forces capable of ‘informationised warfare’ by 2020… China’s armed forces will realise ‘a significant increase of key combat capabilities,’ said the 13th five-year military development plan (2016-2020) issued by the Central Military Commission (CMC), the overall commanding authority of the People’s Liberation Army headed by President Xi Jinping.By 2020, the PLA will have finished mechanisation of all forces and made important progress in incorporating information and computer-technology…More resources will be directed to projects that enhance combat readiness…”

The reforms, notes the Wall Street Journal, “ could enable China not just to challenge U.S. military dominance in Asia, but also to intervene militarily elsewhere … the concern for the U.S. and its allies is that Beijing might use force in ways that conflict with Western interests…The PLA had begun taking tentative steps abroad even before Mr. Xi’s plan. It has sent ships and submarines into the Pacific and Indian Oceans, installed military equipment on reclaimed land in the South China Sea and challenged U.S. naval forces around China’s coast…Mr. Xi has indicated he sees a comparable capability as essential to the “China Dream” he outlined after taking power in 2012, when he ordered the military to prepare to “fight and win wars.” A defense white paper last year gave the PLA a new strategic task to “safeguard the security of China’s overseas interests” on top of its traditional defensive duties.

The Report concludes tomorrow, with a look at China’s naval prowess

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China Matches U.S. in Military Strength

The New York Analysis of Policy & Government begins a multi-part review of the growing military prowess of America’s opponents.  

Americans continue to take false comfort in their erroneous belief that the U.S. leads the world in military technology, and that their armed forces, combined with NATO, constitute the strongest alliance on the planet. The evidence to the contrary is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. Moscow commands a larger and more modern nuclear force than Washington, and Beijing’s military is nearing equality in technology while gaining an advantage in numbers.

The evidence for all the above doesn’t only come from western intelligence agencies.  Both Russia and China enthusiastically boast about their prowess, and, as demonstrated by the Kremlin in Ukraine and Beijing in its oceanic exploits (in which it has claimed about 90% of the South China Sea) neither has any reluctance in using force aggressively and illegally.

Thanks to a massive financial investment, (China has increased its military spending by 10% percent annually for a prolonged period, even as the U.S. has cut the Pentagon budget) intense espionage against the west, and the sale of supercomputers by the Clinton administration in the 1990’s, China has closed the gap in technology with the United States.

Roger Cliff, author of a major study on Beijing’s military,   writes “With skyrocketing military budgets and new technology, China’s tanks, aircraft, destroyers, and missile capabilities are becoming comparable to those of the United States.” Peter Dombrowski, writing for the War On The Rocks site, provides contrary evidence to those who maintain that America can rely on superior technology: “..the United States might not be able to sustain a high-technology strategy and, in the long run, China may be better positioned in a long-term race…Numerous accounts document how the Chinese defense industry has increased its capacities, at least in part, by using cyber espionage to steal American and Western technologies and reverse engineering weapons and systems…Unless the U.S. military and intelligence communities can somehow overturn the laws of physics, economics, and geography simultaneously, America remains at a disadvantage relative to China in terms of the fundamentals of military conflict in Asia…China may well out innovate and out invest the United States.”

China has also purchased some of Russia’s most advanced military equipment, while also developing its own naval weapons systems, some of which are unmatched anywhere, including a missile which, launched from land, can disable ships almost 1,000 miles away.

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Examples of Beijing’s rise can be seen clearly in the air, in space, and at sea.

As evidenced at recent air shows, Beijing now has two separate stealth fighters available. The newest is the J-20. According to Russia’s RT news service “China has showcased its new J-20 stealth fighter in southern Guangdong Province’s city of Zhuhai …The J-20 is a long-range radar-evading fighter jet equipped with air-to-air missiles…The J-20, manufactured by Chengdu Aircraft Industries Corporation, is an original Chinese project.”

The U.S. Naval Institute  reports: “China is designing weapons to counter advanced Western satellite technology using directed energy weapons and jammers and may have already tested some, according to a [2015] Chinese military assessment to Congress. ‘China continues to develop a variety of capabilities designed to limit or prevent the use of space- based assets by adversaries during a crisis or conflict, including the development of directed-energy weapons and satellite jammers,’ read the report.”

The Washington Free Beacon disclosed last November that China had “conducted a flight test of a new missile capable of knocking out U.S. satellites as part of Beijing’s growing space warfare arsenal.The test of a Dong Neng-3 exoatmospheric vehicle was carried out Oct. 30 from China’s Korla Missile Test Complex in western China, said two defense officials familiar with reports of the test. A Chinese press report also provided details of what was said to be a missile defense interceptor flight test carried out Nov. 1 [2015].”  IBI reports that “In 2007 … China launched a missile that destroyed one of its own weather satellites in low-Earth orbit. China has launched what many experts say are additional tests of ground-based anti-satellite kinetic weapons…Brian Weeden, a security analyst and former Air Force officer who studied and helped publicize the Chinese test. ‘The U.S. came to grips decades ago with the fact that its lower orbit satellites could easily be shot down..”

The Report Continues Tomorrow

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Report on China’s Military Developments: Part 2

The New York Analysis continues with its review of the Department of Defense’s 2016 Report to Congress on China’s Military Developments.  Today’s second of our three part except of the Report focuses on Beijing growing international activities. 

CHINA’S EVOLVING OVERSEAS ACCESS

China is expanding its access to foreign ports to pre-position the necessary logistics support to regularize and sustain deployments in the “far seas,” waters as distant as the Indian Ocean, Mediterranean Sea, and Atlantic Ocean. In late November, China publicly confirmed its intention to build military supporting facilities in Djibouti “to help the navy and army further participate in United Nations peacekeeping operations (PKO), carry out escort missions in the waters near Somalia and the Gulf of Aden, and provide humanitarian assistance.” This Chinese initiative both reflects and amplifies China’s growing geopolitical clout, extending the reach of its influence and armed forces.

 China’s expanding international economic interests are increasing demands for the PLAN to operate in more distant seas to protect Chinese citizens, investments, and critical sea lines of communication (SLOC).

 China most likely will seek to establish additional naval logistics hubs in countries with which it has a longstanding friendly relationship and similar strategic interests, such as Pakistan, and a precedent for hosting foreign militaries. China’s overseas naval logistics aspiration may be constrained by the willingness of countries to support a PLAN presence in one of their ports.

So far, China has not constructed U.S.-style overseas military bases in the Indian Ocean. China’s leaders may judge instead that a mixture of preferred access to overseas commercial ports and a limited number of exclusive PLAN logistic facilities—probably collocated with commercial ports—most closely aligns with China’s future overseas logistics needs to support its evolving naval requirements.

 Preferred access would give the PLAN favored status in using a commercial port for resupply, replenishment, and maintenance purposes. A logistics facility would represent an arrangement in which China leases out portions of a commercial port solely for PLAN logistics operations.

 Such a logistics presence may support both civilian and military operations. China’s current naval logistics foortprint in the Indian Ocean is unable to support major combat operations in South Asia.

A greater overseas naval logistics footprint would better position the PLAN to expand its participation in non-war military missions, such as non-combatant evacuation operations (NEO), search-and-rescue (SAR), humanitarian assistance/disaster relief (HA/DR), and sea lines of communication (SLOC) security. To some extent, a more robust overseas logistics presence may also enable China to expand its support to PKO, force protection missions, and counterterrorism initiatives.

For example, in 2015, the PLAN’s naval escort task forces performing counterpiracy escort duties in the Gulf of Aden were able to utilize Djibouti and Oman for basic resupply and replenishment.

DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINA’S TERRITORIAL DISPUTES

South China Sea. China depicts its South China Sea claims by using a “nine-dash line” that encompasses most of the area. China remains ambiguous about the precise coordinates, meaning, or legal basis of the nine-dash line. Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, Indonesia, and Vietnam all contest portions of China’s territorial and maritime claims in the South China Sea.

In 2015, China accelerated land reclamation and infrastructure construction at its outposts in the Spratly Islands. When complete, these outposts will include harbors, communications and surveillance systems, logistics facilities, and three airfields. Although artificial islands do not provide China with any additional territorial or maritime rights within the South China Sea, China will be able to use its reclaimed features as persistent civil-military bases to enhance its presence in the South China Sea significantly and enhance China’s ability to control the features and nearby maritime space.

Throughout 2015, Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) ships maintained a presence at Scarborough Reef, continuing operations that began in 2012. Chinese officials asserted in 2015 that the patrols were normal and justifiable, claiming that China has indisputable sovereignty over the various features in the South China Sea and adjacent waters. Both China and the Philippines continue to claim sovereignty over Scarborough Reef and Second Thomas Shoal. China maintains a continuous CCG presence at both locations while the Philippines stations military personnel aboard a tank landing ship that has been grounded on Second Thomas Shoal since 1999. In October 2015, an arbitral tribunal constituted at the request of the Philippines and pursuant to Chapter XV of the Law of the Sea Convention ruled that it has jurisdiction to decide certain disputed issues between the Philippines and China, such as whether a particular feature is an “island” entitled to a territorial sea, an exclusive economic zone, and continental shelf; a “rock,” a subset of islands that are entitled only to a territorial sea; or a feature that is submerged at high tide and thus not entitled to any maritime zone of its own. The arbitral tribunal will not rule on sovereignty claims to land features. The tribunal is expected to issue a ruling on the merits of the case in 2016. China continues to reiterate that it does not accept the jurisdiction of the arbitral tribunal and will not abide by its decision.

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East China Sea. China claims sovereignty over the Japan-administered Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea; this territory is also claimed by Taiwan. Since 2012, China has used maritime law enforcement ships and aircraft to patrol near the islands in order to challenge Japan’s administration. Chinese officials continue to claim the islands are part of China’s territory and that China will resolutely respond to any perceived external provocation.

Last year, China balanced this concern with efforts to improve relations with Japan gradually. The two countries resumed official senior-level exchanges in 2015 following President Xi’s first bilateral meeting with Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in November 2014, where both sides announced a four-point agreement to improve bilateral ties.

China-India Border. Tensions remain along disputed portions of the Sino-Indian border, where both sides patrol with armed forces. After a five-day military standoff in September 2015 at Burtse in Northern Ladakh, China and India held a senior-level flag-officer meeting, agreed to maintain peace, and retreated to positions mutually acceptable to both sides.

DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINA’S FOREIGN MILITARY ENGAGEMENTS

China seeks to leverage engagement with foreign militaries to enhance its presence and influence abroad, bolster China’s international and regional image, and assuage other countries’ concerns about China’s rise. PLA engagement activities also assist its modernization by facilitating the acquisition of advanced weapon systems and technologies, increasing its operational experience throughout and beyond Asia, and giving it access to foreign military practices, operational doctrine, and training methods.

Combined Exercises. PLA participation in bilateral and multilateral exercises continues to increase in scope and complexity. In 2015, the PLA conducted at least nine bilateral and multilateral exercises with foreign militaries. The PLA conducted its first field exercise with Malaysia, first naval exercise with Singapore, and first air force exercise with Thailand. China also conducted bilateral exercises with Russia, Pakistan, India, and Mongolia. China participated in the Mongolia-hosted multinational peacekeeping exercise, KHAAN QUEST and a counterterrorism exercise with Tajikistan under the auspices of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Many of these exercises focused on counterterrorism, border security, peacekeeping operations (PKO), and disaster relief; however, some also included conventional air, maritime, and ground warfare training.

China and Russia also conducted NAVAL COOPERATION 2015, which consisted of two phases; the first in the Mediterranean Sea and the second in the Sea of Japan. This was the fourth NAVAL COOPERATION exercise since 2012 between China and Russia and was intended to strengthen bilateral military ties and increase mutual trust between both militaries. Phase one in the Mediterranean focused on protecting sea lines of communications (SLOCs) and combating terrorism and phase two in the Sea of Japan featured simultaneous amphibious landings, joint air defense drills, and anti-surface ship drills.

A PLAN task force conducted a cruise around the world from August 2015 to February 2016, during which it conducted bilateral training with Denmark. Ships from the 20th Naval Escort Task Force in the Gulf of Aden stopped in 13 countries, including Poland, Cuba, Sweden, the United States, Denmark, and Australia. This is the first PLAN operation to circumnavigate the globe since 2002, building on more recent naval visits to Africa and Europe.

CHINA’S USE OF LOW-INTENSITY COERCION IN MARITIME DISPUTES

China has used low-intensity coercion to enhance its presence and control in disputed areas of the East and South China Sea. During periods of tension, official statements and state media seek to frame China as reacting to threats to its national sovereignty or to provocations by outside actors. China often uses a progression of small, incremental steps to increase its effective control over disputed areas and avoid escalation to military conflict. China has also used punitive trade policies as instruments of coercion during past tensions and could do so in future disputes. In 2015, China continued to employ Chinese Coast Guard and PLA Navy ships to implement its claims by maintaining a near-continuous presence in disputed areas in order to demonstrate continuous and effective administration. Recent land reclamation activity has little legal effect, but will support China’s ability to sustain longer patrols in the South China Sea. In 2012, China restricted Philippine fruit imports during the height of Scarborough Reef tensions. In 2010, China used its dominance in the rare earth industry as a diplomatic tool by restricting exports of rare earth minerals to Japan amid tensions over a collision between a Chinese fishing boat and Japanese patrol ship.

RECLAMATION AND CONSTRUCTION IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

China paused its two-year land reclamation effort in the Spratly Islands in late 2015 after adding over 3,200 acres of land to the seven features it occupies; other claimants reclaimed approximately 50 acres of land over the same period. As part of this effort, China excavated deep channels to improve access to its outposts, created artificial harbors, dredged natural harbors, and constructed new berthing areas to allow access for larger ships. Development of the initial four features—all of which were reclaimed in 2014—has progressed to the final stages of primary infrastructure construction, and includes communication and surveillance systems, as well as logistical support facilities.

At the three features where the largest outposts are located, China completed major land reclamation efforts in early October 2015 and began transitioning to infrastructure development, with each feature having an airfield—each with approximately 9,800 foot-long runways—and large ports in various stages of construction. Additional substantial infrastructure, including communications and surveillance systems, is expected to be built on these features in the coming year.

China’s Government has stated these projects are mainly for improving the living and working conditions of those stationed on the outposts, safety of navigation, and research. However, most analysts outside China believe that China is attempting to bolster its de facto control by improving its military and civilian infrastructure in the South China Sea. The airfields, berthing areas, and resupply facilities will allow China to maintain a more flexible and persistent coast guard and military presence in the area. This would improve China’s ability to detect and challenge activities by rival claimants or third parties, widen the range of capabilities available to China, and reduce the time required to deploy them.

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Report on China’s Military Developments: Part 1

Each Year, the Department of Defense provides an annual report to Congress on “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s  Republic of China.”

 The New York Analysis of Policy and Government has reviewed the just-released 2016 report. We have excerpted key portions, and over the next three days will present them here.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The long-term, comprehensive modernization of the armed forces of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) entered a new phase in 2015 as China unveiled sweeping organizational reforms to overhaul the entire military structure. These reforms aim to strengthen the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) control over the military, enhance the PLA’s ability to conduct joint operations, and improve its ability to fight short-duration, high-intensity regional conflicts at greater distances from the Chinese mainland. China’s leaders seek ways to leverage China’s growing military, diplomatic, and economic clout to advance its ambitions to establish regional preeminence and expand its international influence. Chinese leaders have characterized modernization of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) as essential to achieving great power status and what Chinese President Xi Jinping calls the “China Dream” of national rejuvenation. They portray a strong military as critical to advancing Chinese interests, preventing other countries from taking steps that would damage those interests, and ensuring that China can defend itself and its sovereignty claims.

Throughout 2015, China continued to assert sovereignty claims over features in the East and South China Seas. In the East China Sea, China continued to use maritime law enforcement ships and aircraft to patrol near the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands in order to challenge Japan’s claim. In the South China Sea, China paused its land reclamation effort in the Spratly Islands in late 2015 after adding more than 3,200 acres of land to the seven features it occupies in the archipelago. Although these artificial islands do not provide China with any additional territorial or maritime rights within the South China Sea, China will be able to use them as persistent civil-military bases to enhance its long-term presence in the South China Sea significantly.

China demonstrated a willingness to tolerate higher levels of tension in the pursuit of its interests, especially in pursuit of its territorial claims in the East and South China Sea; however, China still seeks to avoid direct and explicit conflict with the United States. China’s leaders understand that instability or conflict would jeopardize the peaceful external environment that has enabled China’s economic development, which is central to the perpetuation of the CCP’s domestic legitimacy. In the near-term, China is using coercive tactics short of armed conflict, such as the use of law enforcement vessels to enforce maritime claims, to advance their interests in ways that are calculated to fall below the threshold of provoking conflict.

In the long term, Chinese leaders are focused on developing the capabilities they deem necessary to deter or defeat adversary power projection and counter third-party—including U.S.—intervention during a crisis or conflict. China’s military modernization is producing capabilities that have the potential to reduce core U.S. military technological advantages. China’s officially-disclosed military budget grew at an average of 9.8 percent per year in inflation-adjusted terms from 2006 through 2015, and Chinese leaders seem committed to sustaining defense spending growth for the foreseeable future, even as China’s economic growth decelerates.

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During 2015, the PLA continued to improve key capabilities that would be used in theater contingencies, including cruise missiles; short, medium, and intermediate-range ballistic missiles; high performance aircraft; integrated air defense networks; information operations capabilities; and amphibious and airborne assault units. The PLA is developing and testing new intermediate- and medium-range conventional ballistic missiles as well as long-range, land-attack, and anti-ship cruise missiles, which once operational would extend the military’s reach and push adversary forces further from potential regional conflicts. China is also focusing on counterspace, offensive cyber operations, and electronic warfare (EW) capabilities meant to deny adversaries the advantages of modern, information technology-driven warfare.

Despite the PLA’s gains over the last two decades, its modernization program faces challenges. The organizational reforms unveiled by the leadership are part of a broader effort by President Xi to address the PLA’s deficiencies, such as corruption. Since Xi took power in 2012, more than forty senior officers have fallen in a wide-ranging anti-corruption campaign that last year ensnared the former top officer in the PLA. Moreover, Xi’s slogan exhorting the PLA to prepare to “fight and win” battles implies that the leadership is concerned about how the PLA, which has not fought a war in more than thirty years, would fare in combat.

The Department of Defense (DoD) approach to China is part of a broader U.S. strategy for the Asia-Pacific region that is focused on ensuring and building upon a stable and diversified security order, an open and transparent economic order, and a liberal political order. Combined, these factors have contributed to the peace and prosperity of the entire region since the end of the Second World War, directly benefiting China and its neighbors. U.S. policy toward China is based on the premise that it is in both our countries’ interests to deepen practical cooperation in areas where our countries’ interests overlap, while constructively managing differences.

Sustaining positive momentum in the military-to-military relationship supports U.S. policy objectives to encourage China to uphold international rules and norms and to contribute positively to resolving regional and global problems. DoD seeks to continue building a military-to-military relationship with China that is sustained and substantive. DoD will continue to focus on enhancing risk reduction measures that diminish the potential for incidents or miscalculation, and encourage China to contribute constructively to efforts to maintain peace and stability with the United States, our allies and partners, and the greater international community.

While the United States builds a stronger military-to-military relationship with China, DoD will also continue to monitor and adapt to China’s evolving military strategy, doctrine, and force development, and encourage China to be more transparent about its military modernization program. The United States will adapt its forces, posture, investments, and operational concepts to ensure it retains the ability to defend the homeland, deter aggression, protect our allies, and preserve a principled regional order founded in international law and norms that benefit all countries equally.

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U.S.-China relations at the danger point

China’s rise to superpower status in both military and economic realms has, despite all hopes to the contrary, been neither peaceful nor beneficial to the international community.

The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission was created by Congress to report on the national security implications of the bilateral trade and economic relationship between the United States and the People’s Republic of China.

In its 2015 Report to Congress, the Commission presents a worrisome outline of the current state of Sino-American relations, with a candor rarely expressed by either government or the media.  The New York Analysis of Policy & Government has examined the lengthy report, and we begin our three-part summary with the testimony before Congress of Dennis Shea, vice chairman of the Commission.

U.S.-China security relations suffered from rising tensions and growing distrust in 2015, largely due to China’s aforementioned cyberespionage activities against a range of U.S. government, defense, and commercial entities, as well as its unprecedented island-building campaign in the South China Sea.

In just two years, China has presented other South China Sea claimants with a fait accompli by dredging up nearly 3,000 acres of sand in disputed waters on which to stake its claim, station military assets, and project force into contested waters. These activities are stirring anxiety and distrust in Southeast Asia; Vietnamese government officials and other experts expressed to the Commission the growing sense that China is strategically encircling the country.

In October, after months of China’s increasingly aggressive assertions of its South China Sea claims, a U.S. Navy guided missile destroyer conducted a freedom of navigation patrol within 12 nautical miles of one of the reclaimed features for the first time. Though China’s maritime dispute with Japan over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea received less media attention in 2015, China continued to quietly increase its military and civilian presence in contested waters by conducting regular air and maritime patrols near the islands and erecting 16 energy exploitation structures. China’s military continues to expand its reach beyond the East and South China seas.

In September 2015, China’s Navy sailed through Alaska’s Aleutian Islands, the closest it has ever sailed to U.S. territory during a distant sea deployment without a port call. China’s military also conducted exercises in the Mediterranean Sea, antipiracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden, and an evacuation of noncombatants in Yemen. To support these expanding capabilities, China appears to be seeking to establish its first overseas military facility in Djibouti.
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The Chinese Navy’s increasing activities far from China’s shores reflect China’s growing capability and willingness to use its military to protect its overseas economic assets and expatriate population. Beyond the increasing blue water profile of China’s naval forces, the Commission examined two additional aspects of China’s ongoing military modernization efforts: China’s space and counterspace programs and its offensive missile forces.

China has become one of the world’s leading space powers after decades of prioritization and investment. China’s space program generates international prestige and influence, and enables China to collaborate on a range of bilateral and multilateral space activities. Among its goals in the space industry, China specifically aimed to capture 15 percent of the global launch services market and 10 percent of the global commercial satellite market by 2015, although these efforts have produced mixed results. Militarily, as its developmental counterspace capabilities become operational, China will be able to target vulnerabilities in the spacedependent U.S. national security architecture.

These capabilities could hold at risk U.S. national security satellites in every orbital regime. China’s space and counterspace programs have significant implications for the United States. That’s why the Commission recommends Congress continue to support the U.S. Department of Defense’s efforts to reduce the vulnerability of U.S. space assets through cost-effective solutions, such as the development of smaller and more distributed satellites, hardened satellite communications, and non-space intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets such as unmanned aerial vehicles.

When examining China’s offensive missile forces, the Commission found China has achieved extraordinarily rapid growth in its conventional missile capability. In fact, China has the most active ballistic and cruise missile program in the world today. China’s initial conventional missile development focused heavily on expanding its short-range ballistic missile force for Taiwan contingencies. In the past decade, China’s development of longer-range missiles, pursuit of advanced missile technologies, and diversification of its launch platforms have enabled it to hold at risk a wider range of targets farther from its shores, even as far as the second island chain. China’s short-range ballistic missile force has grown from 30 to 50 missiles in the mid-1990s to more than 1,200 in 2015, mostly deployed along the Taiwan Strait.

China has also developed and fielded new types of medium-range and intermediate-range ballistic missiles. It currently has the ability to conduct precision strikes against land and naval targets within the first island chain. As part of its missile force modernization, China is developing cruise missiles that are increasingly difficult for the U.S. military to detect and defend against. It fielded its first ground-launched land-attack cruise missile, and is developing air-, ship-, and submarine-launched cruise missiles with land-attack and antiship missions.

The YJ–18 anti-ship cruise missile is almost certainly capable of supersonic speeds during the terminal phase of its flight, a feature that reduces the time shipborne defenses have to react to an incoming threat. In the meantime, the sheer number of China’s cruise missiles poses a formidable challenge against existing U.S. Navy defenses. These developments have led the Commission to recommend Congress direct the U.S. Department of Defense to provide an unclassified estimate of the People’s Liberation Army Second Artillery Force’s inventory of missiles and launchers, by type, in future iterations of its annual report to Congress analyzing military and security developments involving China.