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China Gaining Military Advantage

Defense Secretary Mattis has announced that Wei Fenghe,  China’s Minister of National Defence and a member of the Central Military Commission, will visit Washington this week.

The potential of armed conflict with China exceeds the danger posed by the Cold War threat of conflict with the Soviet Union.  With a weak economy, Moscow faced, despite the vast size of its powerful conventional military, a substantial dependence on nuclear arms, a fact of life that exists for the Kremlin today as well. But the reality of a counterstrike by the American nuclear arsenal would have made any gains Russia hoped to obtain from a first strike a pyrrhic victory, at best.

Beijing neither suffers from a weak economy, nor is it dependent solely on nuclear arms to gain military superiority.

China’s leaders have another advantage: a recognition that the use of “soft power” can win allies, a tactic the USSR didn’t quite master. The Soviet Union depended on allying with western leftists, particularly in the nuclear freeze movement, and with revolutionaries in a number of regions.  However, its failed economy and its overt belligerence failed to sway much of the global population, aside from those blinded by allegiance to socialist propaganda.

China has commenced a cold war with the west, but many seem reluctant to acknowledge that reality.  However, Beijing displays no reticence in its threatening actions. In a speech broadcast On China Central Television, monitored by The Scottish Sun leader-for-life President Xi told officers of his Southern Theatre Command: “It’s necessary to strengthen the mission … and concentrate preparations for fighting a war…We need to take all complex situations into consideration and make emergency plans accordingly…”

China expert Seth Cropsey, in a Wall Street Journal  article noted that “Vice President Mike Pence announced a turning point in Washington’s relations with Beijing. In a speech Oct. 4 at the Hudson Institute, he acknowledged that four decades of attempts by the U.S. to make China a ‘stakeholder’ in global norms and institutions had failed. The White House now promises to shift relations accordingly.”

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The Rand Institute’s Michael Spirtas reports that “China has built island outposts in the South China Sea, has challenged Japan, the Philippines and other East Asian states over territorial claims and continues to threaten Taiwan. Both Russia and China have invested in capabilities to defeat U.S. aircraft and threaten its air bases and aircraft carriers that would raise the cost of opposing them, and could even defeat the United States in a major war.”

America’s Asian allies have taken note of China’s growing belligerence. J. Berkshire Miller, writing for the Nikkei Asian Review states that “Japan must respond to China’s growing naval power… China is upgrading its People’s Liberation Army Navy as it confronts Japan… China also continues to expand military capabilities in the South China Sea to put itself in the position to potentially deny access to a region that is criss-crossed by trade routes…”

Bill Gertz, in a Free Beacon review, notes that China is rapidly building space weapons and other advanced arms infused with artificial intelligence capabilities as part of its bid for military dominance, according to a Congressional sponsored study. Anti-satellite missiles and orbiting killer satellites, swarms of attack drones, hypersonic missiles, maneuvering warheads, lasers, and high-speed rail guns are key systems China is fielding in the coming years in a bid to leap ahead of the U.S. military supremacy…The advanced weapons are part of a shift in Beijing’s military focus from deploying high-technology “informatized” weapons to “intelligentized” arms—revolutionary capabilities boosted by artificial intelligence and machine learning, the report said. …The report also concludes the United States is falling behind China in the development of advanced weapons and will have to hurry to avoid being overtaken. “The United States has a small window, only a decade at most, to develop new capabilities and concepts for countering China’s advanced weapons programs,” the report said.

Retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges,  writing in the Military Times, notes the Associated Press’s Vanessa Gera, believes the U.S. is likely to be in a military conflict with China within 15 years.

Photo: A Type 96 main battle tank (MBT) attached to an artillery unit stationed in northwest China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region spits fire down range at mock targets during a live-fire test on October 25, 2018. (eng.chinamil.com.cn/Photo by Tang Yayun)

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China Matches U.S. in Military Strength

The New York Analysis of Policy & Government begins a multi-part review of the growing military prowess of America’s opponents.  

Americans continue to take false comfort in their erroneous belief that the U.S. leads the world in military technology, and that their armed forces, combined with NATO, constitute the strongest alliance on the planet. The evidence to the contrary is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. Moscow commands a larger and more modern nuclear force than Washington, and Beijing’s military is nearing equality in technology while gaining an advantage in numbers.

The evidence for all the above doesn’t only come from western intelligence agencies.  Both Russia and China enthusiastically boast about their prowess, and, as demonstrated by the Kremlin in Ukraine and Beijing in its oceanic exploits (in which it has claimed about 90% of the South China Sea) neither has any reluctance in using force aggressively and illegally.

Thanks to a massive financial investment, (China has increased its military spending by 10% percent annually for a prolonged period, even as the U.S. has cut the Pentagon budget) intense espionage against the west, and the sale of supercomputers by the Clinton administration in the 1990’s, China has closed the gap in technology with the United States.

Roger Cliff, author of a major study on Beijing’s military,   writes “With skyrocketing military budgets and new technology, China’s tanks, aircraft, destroyers, and missile capabilities are becoming comparable to those of the United States.” Peter Dombrowski, writing for the War On The Rocks site, provides contrary evidence to those who maintain that America can rely on superior technology: “..the United States might not be able to sustain a high-technology strategy and, in the long run, China may be better positioned in a long-term race…Numerous accounts document how the Chinese defense industry has increased its capacities, at least in part, by using cyber espionage to steal American and Western technologies and reverse engineering weapons and systems…Unless the U.S. military and intelligence communities can somehow overturn the laws of physics, economics, and geography simultaneously, America remains at a disadvantage relative to China in terms of the fundamentals of military conflict in Asia…China may well out innovate and out invest the United States.”

China has also purchased some of Russia’s most advanced military equipment, while also developing its own naval weapons systems, some of which are unmatched anywhere, including a missile which, launched from land, can disable ships almost 1,000 miles away.

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Examples of Beijing’s rise can be seen clearly in the air, in space, and at sea.

As evidenced at recent air shows, Beijing now has two separate stealth fighters available. The newest is the J-20. According to Russia’s RT news service “China has showcased its new J-20 stealth fighter in southern Guangdong Province’s city of Zhuhai …The J-20 is a long-range radar-evading fighter jet equipped with air-to-air missiles…The J-20, manufactured by Chengdu Aircraft Industries Corporation, is an original Chinese project.”

The U.S. Naval Institute  reports: “China is designing weapons to counter advanced Western satellite technology using directed energy weapons and jammers and may have already tested some, according to a [2015] Chinese military assessment to Congress. ‘China continues to develop a variety of capabilities designed to limit or prevent the use of space- based assets by adversaries during a crisis or conflict, including the development of directed-energy weapons and satellite jammers,’ read the report.”

The Washington Free Beacon disclosed last November that China had “conducted a flight test of a new missile capable of knocking out U.S. satellites as part of Beijing’s growing space warfare arsenal.The test of a Dong Neng-3 exoatmospheric vehicle was carried out Oct. 30 from China’s Korla Missile Test Complex in western China, said two defense officials familiar with reports of the test. A Chinese press report also provided details of what was said to be a missile defense interceptor flight test carried out Nov. 1 [2015].”  IBI reports that “In 2007 … China launched a missile that destroyed one of its own weather satellites in low-Earth orbit. China has launched what many experts say are additional tests of ground-based anti-satellite kinetic weapons…Brian Weeden, a security analyst and former Air Force officer who studied and helped publicize the Chinese test. ‘The U.S. came to grips decades ago with the fact that its lower orbit satellites could easily be shot down..”

The Report Continues Tomorrow

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Report on China’s Military Developments: Conclusion

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government presents the final excerpt from our review of the Department of Defense 2016 report on Chinese Military Developments.  

CURRENT CAPABILITIES OF THE PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY

The Rocket Force, renamed from the PLASAF late last year, operates China’s land-based nuclear and conventional missiles. It is developing and testing several new classes and variants of offensive missiles, including a hypersonic glide vehicle; forming additional missile units; upgrading older missile systems; and developing methods to counter ballistic missile defenses.

The force possesses approximately 1,200 short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) in its inventory. China is increasing the lethality of its conventional missile force by fielding the CSS-11 (DF-16) ballistic missile with a range of 800-1,000 km. The CSS-11, coupled with the already deployed conventional land-attack and anti-ship variants of the CSS-5 (DF-21C/D) medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM), will improve China’s ability to strike not only Taiwan, but other regional targets. These ballistic missile systems are complimented by the CJ-10 ground-launched cruise missile (GLCM). The CJ-10 has a range in excess of 1500 km and offers flight profiles different from ballistic missiles that can enhance targeting options.

China is fielding a growing number of conventionally armed MRBMs, including the CSS-5 Mod 5 (DF-21D) anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM). The CSS-5 Mod 5, with a range of 1,500 km and maneuverable warhead, gives the PLA the capability to attack ships, including aircraft carriers, in the western Pacific Ocean.

China unveiled the DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) during the September 2015 parade in Beijing. When fielded, the DF-26 will be capable of conducting precision strikes against ground targets and contribute to strategic deterrence in the Asia-Pacific region. The official parade announcer also referenced a nuclear version of the DF-26, which, if it shares the same guidance capabilities, would give China its first nuclear precision strike capability against theater targets.

The PLARF continued to modernize its nuclear forces by enhancing its silo-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) and adding more survivable, mobile delivery systems. China’s ICBM arsenal to date consists of approximately 75-100 ICBMs, including the silo-based CSS-4 Mod 2 (DF-5) and multiple independently-targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV)-equipped Mod 3 (DF-5B); the solid-fueled, road-mobile CSS-10 Mod 1 and 2 (DF-31 and DF-31A); and the shorter range CSS-3 (DF-4). The CSS-10 Mod 2, with a range in excess of 11,200 km, can reach most locations within the continental United States. China also is developing a new road-mobile ICBM, the CSS-X-20 (DF-41) capable of carrying MIRVs.

PLA Navy (PLAN). Over the past 15 years, China’s ambitious naval modernization program has produced a more technologically advanced and flexible force. The PLAN now possesses the largest number of vessels in Asia, with more than 300 surface ships, submarines, amphibious ships, and patrol craft. China is rapidly retiring legacy combatants in favor of larger, multi-mission ships equipped with advanced anti-ship, anti-air, and anti-submarine weapons and sensors. China continues its gradual shift from “near sea” defense to “far seas” protection as espoused in its most recent DWP, with the PLAN conducting operational tasks outside the so-called “first island chain” with multi-mission, long-range, sustainable naval platforms that have robust self-defense capabilities.

The PLAN places a high priority on the modernization of its submarine force and currently possesses five SSNs, four nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBN), and 53 diesel-powered attack submarines (SS/SSP). By 2020, this force will likely grow to between 69 and 78 submarines. In addition to the 12 KILO-class SS units acquired from Russia in the 1990s and 2000s, China has built 13 SONG-class SS (Type 039) and 13 YUAN-class SSP (Type 039A) with a total of 20 YUANs planned for production. China continues to improve its SSN force, and four additional SHANG-class SSN (Type 093) will eventually join the two already in service. The SHANG SSN will replace the aging HAN-class SSN (Type 091). These improved SHANG SSNs feature a vertical launch system (VLS) and may be able to fire the YJ-18 advanced anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM). Over the next decade, China may construct a new Type 095 nuclear-powered, guided-missile attack submarine (SSGN), which not only would improve the PLAN’s anti-surface warfare capability but might also provide it with a more clandestine land-attack option.

Finally, China continues to produce the JIN-class SSBN (Type 094) with associated CSS-N-14 (JL-2) submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) that has an estimated range of 7,200 km. This platform represents China’s first credible, sea-based nuclear deterrent. China will probably conduct its first SSBN nuclear deterrence patrol sometime in 2016. Four JIN SSBNs are operational, and up to five may enter service before China begins developing and fielding its next-generation SSBN, the Type 096, over the coming decade. The Type 096 will reportedly be armed with a successor to the JL-2, the JL-3 SSince 2008, the PLAN has continued a robust surface combatant construction program of various classes of ships, including guided-missile destroyers (DDG) and guided-missile frigates (FFG). During 2015, the final LUYANG II-class DDG (Type 052C) entered service, bringing the total number of ships of this class to six. Additionally, a second LUYANG III-class DDG (Type 052D) entered service in 2015. It has a multipurpose VLS capable of launching ASCMs, land-attack cruise missiles (LACM), surface-to-air missiles (SAM), and antisubmarine missiles. China has also probably begun construction of a larger Type 055 “destroyer,” a vessel better characterized as a guided-missile cruiser (CG) than a DDG. China has continued to produce the JIANGKAI II-class FFG (Type 054A), with 20 ships currently in the fleet and five in various stages of construction. These new DDGs and FFGs provide a significant upgrade to the PLAN’s air defense capability, which will be critical as it expands operations into distant seas beyond the range of shore-based air defense systems.

Augmenting the PLAN’s littoral warfare capabilities, especially in the South China Sea and East China Sea, is a new class of small LBM. combatant. Twenty-five JIANGDAO-class corvettes (FFL) (Type 056) are in service and the latest ships have been upgraded to anti-submarine warfare (ASW) variants with a towed array sonar. China may build more than 60 of this class, ultimately replacing older PLAN destroyers and frigates. China also has 60 HOUBEI-class wave-piercing catamaran guided-missile patrol boats (PTG) (Type 022) built for operations in China’s “near seas.”

The PLAN continues to emphasize anti-surface warfare (ASUW) as its primary focus, including modernizing its advanced ASCMs and associated over-the-horizon targeting systems. Older surface combatants carry variants of the YJ-83 ASCM (65 nm, 120 km), while newer surface combatants such as the LUYANG II are fitted with the YJ-62 (120 nm, 222 km). The LUYANG III and Type 055 CG will be fitted with a variant of China’s newest ASCM, the YJ-18 (290 nm, 537 km), which is a significant step forward in China’s surface ASUW capability. Eight of China’s 12 KILOs are equipped with the SS-N-27 ASCM (120 nm, 222 km), a system China acquired from Russia. China’s newest indigenous submarine-launched ASCM, the YJ-18 and its variants, represents an improvement over the SS-N-27, and will be fielded on SONG, YUAN, and SHANG submarines. China’s previously produced submarine-launched ASCM, the YJ-82, is a version of the C-801, which has a much shorter range. The PLAN recognizes that long-range ASCMs require a robust, over-the-horizon targeting capability to realize their full potential, and China is investing in reconnaissance, surveillance, command, control, and communications systems at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels to provide high-fidelity targeting information to surface and subsurface launch platforms.

China’s investments in its amphibious ship force signal China’s intent to develop an expeditionary and over-the-horizon amphibious assault capability as well as HA/DR and counterpiracy capabilities. Since 2005, China has built three large YUZHAO-class (Type 071) amphibious transport docks (LPD) with a fourth soon to enter service, providing considerably greater and more flexible capability for “far seas” operations than the older landing ships. The YUZHAO can carry up to four of the new YUYI-class air-cushion medium landing craft (LCMA) and four or more helicopters, as well as armored vehicles and marines for long-distance deployments. Additional YUZHAO construction is expected in the near-term, as is a follow-on amphibious assault ship that is not only larger, but incorporates a full flight deck for helicopters. Two YUTING II-class tank landing ships (LST) are currently being built to replace older LST units that are reaching the end of their service lives, and to support logistics operations, particularly in the South China Sea.

In 2015, the PLAN’s first aircraft carrier, LIAONING, certified its first cohort of domestically trained J-15 operational pilots. The air wing is expected to deploy on the carrier in 2016. China also began construction of its first domestic aircraft carrier and could build multiple aircraft carriers over the next 15 years. Even when fully operational, LIAONING will not enable long-range power projection similar to U.S. NIMITZ-class carriers. LIAONING’s smaller size limits the number of aircraft it can embark, while the ski-jump configuration limits aircraft fuel and ordnance loads. LIAONING will possibly be used for fleet air defense missions, extending air cover over a fleet operating far from land-based coverage. Although it possesses a full suite of weapons and combat systems, LIAONING will probably continue to play a significant role in training China’s carrier pilots, deck crews, and developing tactics that will be used with later, more capable carriers.

PLA Air Force (PLAAF) and PLA Navy Aviation. The PLAAF is the largest air force in Asia and the third largest in the world, with more than 2,800 total aircraft (not including UAVs) and 2,100 combat aircraft (including fighters, bombers, fighter-attack and attack aircraft). The PLAAF is rapidly closing the gap with western air forces across a broad spectrum of capabilities from aircraft and command-and-control (C2) to jammers, electronic warfare (EW), and datalinks. The PLAAF continues to field additional fourth-generation aircraft (now about 600). Although it still operates a large number of older second- and third-generation fighters, it will probably become a majority fourth-generation force within the next several years.

The PLAAF and PLAN may become more prominent within the PLA if China proceeds with the personnel reductions announced in September 2015. Last year, the personnel levels of the PLAAF and PLAN were just 398,000 and 235,000 respectively, accounting for 27.5 percent of the PLA overall. The PLA’s planned personnel reductions may increase the relative size of the PLAAF and PLAN; Chinese analysts speculate the absolute size of the two services may even increase.

China has developed the J-10B follow-on to its first indigenously designed fourth-generation fighter and it is expected to enter service in the near-term. The PLA is also likely to acquire the Su-35 Flanker aircraft from Russia along with its advanced radar system. If China does procure the Su-35, the aircraft could enter service by 2018. In November 2015, talks to purchase 24 Su-35 fighters reportedly concluded successfully.

China has been pursuing fifth-generation fighter capabilities since at least 2009 and is the only country other than the United States to have two concurrent stealth fighter programs. China seeks to develop these advanced aircraft to improve its regional power projection capabilities and to strengthen its ability to strike regional airbases and facilities. The PLAAF has observed foreign military employment of stealth aircraft and views this technology as a core capability in its transformation from a predominantly territorial air force to one capable of conducting both offensive and defensive operations. PLAAF leaders believe stealth aircraft provide an offensive operational advantage that denies an adversary the time to mobilize and to conduct defensive operations. In 2015, China began flight testing its fifth and sixth J-20 stealth fighter prototypes. Within two years of the J-20’s first flight in January 2011, China tested a second next-generation fighter prototype. The prototype, referred to as the FC-31 (and unofficially as the J-31), is similar in size to a U.S. F-35 fighter and appears to incorporate design characteristics similar to the J-20. The FC-31 conducted its first flight on October 31, 2012, and debuted at China’s 10th China International Aviation & Aerospace Exhibition in Zhuhai in November 2014. The Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) is actively marketing the FC-31 as an export fifth-generation multirole fighter to compete with the F-35 for foreign sales. AVIC is reportedly in negotiations with the PLAAF to sell the FC-31 for domestic use. In addition to manned fighter aircraft, the PLAAF also views stealth technology as integral to unmanned aircraft, specifically those with an air-to-ground role, as this technology would improve that system’s ability to penetrate heavily protected targets.

China is also producing bomber-class aircraft. China continues to upgrade its H-6 bomber fleet (originally adapted from the late-1950s Soviet Tu-16 design) to increase operational effectiveness and lethality by integrating new standoff weapons. The PLAAF operates three different H-6 bomber variants. The H-6H and the more capable H-6M have been in service since the last decade. The PLAAF also employs the new, fully redesigned H-6K variant with new turbofan engines for extended range and the capability to carry six LACMs. Converting the H-6 into a cruise missile carrier gives the PLA a long-range standoff offensive air capability with precision-guided munitions capable of striking Guam. In 2015, China flew H-6Ks into the western Pacific Ocean in a demonstration of the airframe’s long-range capability. PLA Navy Aviation utilizes a nearly identical version of the earlier H-6, known as the H-6G equipped with systems and four weapons pylons for ASCMs to support maritime missions. All of China’s H-6 variants maintain their traditional bomb bay for gravity bombs, target-acquisition systems, including SOF trained for deep-strike reconnaissance. All elements of the PLAA were major players in the extensive JOINT ACTION-2015 series of exercises which included a focus on SOF integration with long-range fire strike assets.
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The growth of additional regional training centers with full-time non-cooperative OPFORs, along with dedicated observer-controller personnel to conduct unit training evaluations and training support elements, as seen in the expansion of the STRIDE exercise series noted above, continues to drive realistic training across major portions of the PLAA. The primary limiting factor at this time seems to be the simple availability of training time at the current centers, in comparison with the size of the world’s largest ground force. Extensive media coverage of Army exercises in 2015 again underscored a growing national confidence in the PLAA’s ability to conduct modern air-land battle.

Space and Counterspace Capabilities. Using its on-orbit and ground-based assets to support its national civil, economic, political, and military goals and objectives, China’s space program continues to mature. China has invested significantly in improving its space capabilities, with particular emphasis on satellite communications (SATCOM); intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR); satellite navigation (SATNAV); meteorology; as well as manned, unmanned, and interplanetary space exploration. In addition to its on-orbit assets, China’s space program has built a vast ground infrastructure supporting spacecraft and space launch vehicle (SLV) manufacturing, launch, C2, and data downlink. In parallel with its space program, China continues to develop a variety of counterspace capabilities designed to limit or to prevent the use of space-based assets by the PLA’s adversaries during a crisis or conflict.

China’s most recent DWP affirmed the PLA’s focus on new, emerging security domains such as outer space. The report called space the “commanding height in international strategic competition.” Although China continues to advocate the peaceful use of outer space, the report also noted China would “secure its space assets to serve its national economic and social development, and maintain outer space security.”

As of December 2015, China launched 19 SLVs carrying 45 spacecraft, including navigation, ISR, and test/engineering satellites. Noteworthy 2015 accomplishments for China’s space program include:

> Two New Launch Vehicles: September 2015 saw the successful debut of both the Long March (LM)-6 and the LM-11 “next generation” SLVs. The LM-6 is a small liquid-fueled SLV designed to carry up to 1000 kg into low Earth orbit (LEO), and the LM-11is described as a “quick response” SLV designed to launch a small payload into LEO on short notice in the event of an emergency.

> China’s Largest Multi-Payload Launch and Smallest Satellites: The 19 September 2015 inaugural launch of the LM-6 SLV carried the largest number of satellites (20) China has ever launched on a single SLV. Most of the satellites carried onto orbit by the LM-6 were technology-demonstration satellites smaller than 100 kg. Furthermore, the four Xingchen femtosatellites launched aboard the LM-6 are the smallest Chinese spacecraft to date, weighing just 100 g each.

> Launches Begin for Beidou Global Network: China’s Beidou SATNAV constellation began the next step of its construction in 2015 with the launch of the Beidou I1-S, an inclined geosynchronous orbit (IGSO) satellite, on March 30. In 2015, China launched two more medium Earth orbit satellites and two more IGSO satellite. This phase of the project plans to extend the Beidou network beyond its current regional focus to provide global coverage by 2020.

The PLA is acquiring a range of technologies to improve China’s counterspace capabilities. In addition to the development of directed energy weapons and satellite jammers, China is also developing anti-satellite capabilities and has probably made progress on the antisatellite missile system it tested in July 2014. China is employing more sophisticated satellite operations and is probably testing dual-use technologies in space that could be applied to counterspace missions.

In the summer of 2014, China conducted a space launch that had a similar profile to the January 2007 test. In 2013, China launched an object into space on a ballistic trajectory with a peak altitude above 30,000 km, which could have been a test of technologies with a counterspace mission in geosyncronous orbit.

Although Chinese defense academics often publish on counterspace threat technologies, no additional antisatellite programs have been publicly acknowledged. PLA writings emphasize the necessity of “destroying, damaging, and interfering with the enemy’s reconnaissance…and communications satellites,” suggesting that such systems, as well as navigation and early warning satellites, could be among the targets of attacks designed to “blind and deafen the enemy.”

China’s Engagement on International Cyber Issues. China is engaged in cyber related diplomatic and advocacy efforts in multilateral and international forums such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASEAN), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and among Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). China promotes international cooperation on combatting terrorists’ use of the internet and countering cyber-related criminal activity and advocates for cyber norms that include principles of sovereignty, non-interference and states’ rights to control online content. China, along with several other countries contributed to the UN Group of Governmental Experts on Development July 2015 report that addresses cyber related issues and state behavior in cyberspace.

U.S.-China Cyber Engagement. DoD engages China to bring greater transparency of each nation’s military doctrine, policy roles and missions in cyberspace as part of the U.S.-China Defense Consultative Talks, the Strategic Security Dialogue, and related dialogues. DoD participates in the U.S.-China Senior Experts Group on International Security Issues in Cyberspace, which was one of the outcomes of the cyber commitments between President Obama and President Xi in September 2015.

DEVELOPMENTS IN NUCLEAR DETERRENCE

China continues to modernize its nuclear forces across the PLA. In 2015, China maintained nuclear-capable delivery systems in its missile forces and navy, giving it a dispersed and more-survivable capability.

> The PLA Rocket Force’s (PLARF) arsenal contains 75-100 ICBMs. The PLARF is modernizing these airframes, including through the development of a new road-mobile ICBM capable of carrying multiple independent reentry vehicles (MIRVs). China has also tested a hypersonic glide vehicle, although official statements make no reference to its intended mission or potential capability to carry a nuclear warhead.

> The PLAN continues to produce the JIN-class SSBN, with four commissioned and at least one under construction. The JIN class and its SLBMs will give China its first reliable long-range, sea-based nuclear capability.

In 2015, China also continued to develop long-range bombers, including some Chinese military analysts have described as “capable of performing strategic deterrence”—a mission reportedly assigned to the PLA Air Force in 2012. There have also been Chinese publications indicating China intends to build a long-range “strategic” stealth bomber. These media reports and Chinse writings suggest China might eventually develop a nuclear bomber capability. If it does, China would develop a “triad” of nuclear delivery systems dispersed across land, sea, and air—a posture considered since the Cold War to improve survivability and strategic deterrence.

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How to deal with China’s military rise

China’s meteoric rise in military spending, made even more effective by Beijing’s massive espionage efforts to obtain the latest western technology, has changed the balance of power in the 21st Century.

China has not been shy about advertising its new muscle. It’s recent “Victory Day” parade commemorating victory over Japan in World War II, (a feat that was largely accomplished by the United States) featured a display of its new weaponry.  Additionally, Beijing has not been hesitant about using its power aggressively against U.S. allies Japan and the Philippines, as well as other regional nations. Beijing has also evidenced its intentions through the development of military bases on disputed shoals, rocky outcroppings that its People’s Liberation Army has significantly enlarged.

Washington’s response has been negligible. Not only has it failed to initiate substantive diplomatic responses, but the continuing weakening of American armed forces has essentially encouraged China’s dangerous path.

The Rand Corporation has completed a study  of China’s military prowess. The conclusions are disturbing.

Rand’s analysis notes that “Over the past two decades, China’s People’s Liberation Army has transformed itself from a large but antiquated force into a capable, modern military. Its technology and operational proficiency still lag behind those of the United States, but it has rapidly narrowed the gap… China enjoys the advantage of proximity in most plausible conflict scenarios, and geographical advantage would likely neutralize many U.S. military strengths…China is not close to catching up to the United States in terms of aggregate capabilities, but … it does not need to catch up to challenge the United States on its immediate periphery. Furthermore, although China’s ability to project power to more distant locations remains limited, its reach is growing, and in the future U.S. military dominance is likely to be challenged at greater distances from China’s coast.”

Rand recommends:

  • S. military leaders should ensure that U.S. planning for Pacific military operations is as dynamic as possible. The U.S. military should adopt operational concepts and strategies that capitalize on potential advantages and utilize the geographic size and depth of the theater, as well as areas of particular U.S. military strength.
  • Specifically, the U.S. military should consider employing an active denial strategy that would improve the resiliency of the force and diminish its vulnerability to preemptive attack. Forces would be more dispersed at the outset of conflict, with many deployed at greater distances from China, but with the ability to move forward as Chinese missile inventories are exhausted or reduced through attrition.
  • Military procurement priorities should be adjusted, emphasizing base redundancy and survivability; standoff systems optimized for high-intensity conflict; stealthy, survivable fighters and bombers; submarine and anti-submarine warfare; and robust space and counterspace capabilities. To save money, U.S. decision makers should consider more rapid cuts to legacy fighter forces and a decreased emphasis on large aircraft carriers.
  • Political and military leaders should intensify diplomatic efforts in the Pacific and Southeast Asia with the goal of expanding potential U.S. access in wartime. This will provide greater strategic depth and more options for U.S. forces.
  • Western governments and commentators should make it clear to China that aggression would carry immense risks and that China should be cautious not to exaggerate its ability to prevail in armed conflict. They should also engage China on issues of strategic stability and escalation.

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Some of Rand’s recommendations are viable, others are questionable. But the inescapable reality is that no strategy for dealing with China can be effective while America’s navy is at its lowest level of strength in a century, the Army the lowest level since before World War I, and the Air Force, the lowest in history.

In addition to rebuilding the U.S. military, the New York Analysis of Policy and Government also recommends a novel strategy. The cost of America’s military rebuilding effort should be deducted from Washington’s financial debts to Beijing.

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NY Analysis

China’s Military Threat

For a number of years, China’s military has increased its military spending by higher annual percentages than either the USA or the USSR at the height of the Cold War.  It now must be considered a military and economic superpower with aggressive tendencies that threaten not only its neighbors but the interests of peace throughout the globe.

Beijing’s forces have nearly twice the manpower of the U.S. (2,285,000 vs. 1,429,995). It will have more ships than the U.S. navy by 2020 (351 vs. 250) and more tanks than the U.S. (9,000 vs. 8,725.) The U.S. has a two to one lead in aircraft. However, that lead in quality and quantity may shrink rapidly as budget cuts in the U.S. and continued double digit increases in the PLA budget come to fruition.

According to the U.S-China Security Review Commission’s 2014 report,

“With the exception of 2010, China’s official defense budget has increased in nominal terms by double-digits every year since 1989. China’s actual aggregate defense spending is higher than the officially announced budget due to Beijing’s omission of major defense-related expenditures—such as purchases of advanced weapons, research and development programs, and local government support to the PLA—from its official figures…

“China has made progress in its missile sector and now is able to rapidly develop and produce a diverse array of advanced ballistic and cruise missiles. China maintains the largest and most lethal short-range ballistic missile force in the world; fielded the world’s first antiship ballistic missile in 2010; deployed its military’s first long-range, air-launched land-attack cruise missile in 2012; and will widely deploy its military’s first indigenous advanced, long range submarine-launched antiship missile in the next few years, if it has not already.

“In 2014, China conducted its first test of a new hypersonic missile vehicle, which can conduct kinetic strikes anywhere in the world within minutes to hours, and performed its second flight test of a new road-mobile intercontinental missile that will be able to strike the entire continental United States and could carry up to 10 independently maneuverable warheads.

“In the maritime domain, China in 2014 continued its transformation from a coastal force into a technologically advanced navy capable of projecting power throughout the Asia Pacific. Since the Commission’s 2013 Annual Report, the PLA Navy has expanded its presence in the East and South China Seas and for the first time begun combat patrols in the Indian Ocean. Additionally, China’s first aircraft carrier in January conducted its first long-distance training deployment. The nature of the deployment suggests China is experimenting with multiple types of carrier formations, including those resembling U.S. combined expeditionary groups.

“Regarding China’s nuclear forces, high-confidence assessments of the numbers of Chinese nuclear-capable ballistic missiles and nuclear warheads are not possible due to China’s lack of transparency about its nuclear program. The Department of Defense (DoD) has not released detailed information on China’s nuclear program, only noting in 2013 that “China’s nuclear arsenal currently consists of approximately 50‒75 intercontinental ballistic missiles,” and that “the number of Chinese intercontinental missile nuclear warheads capable of reaching the United States could expand to well over 100 within the next 15 years.

Exercising even for thirty minutes a day cheap viagra from uk can offer you huge incentives. Propecia (finasteride) The drug finasteride, available in the market in three various dosages 100 mg, 50 mg and 25 mg, of which 100 mg is said to be the main factor of online cialis prescription is Sildenafil Citrate. It’s possible to just guess viagra 25mg icks.org just how much Adam is profiting at this point together with his collection of niche websites. To know more about levitra samples kamagra, its benefits, side effects and long lasting result are two main advantages of using herbal male fertility pills. “DoD has not provided an unclassified estimate of China’s nuclear warhead stockpile since 2006, when the Defense Intelligence Agency said China had more than 100 nuclear warheads. Estimates of China’s nuclear forces and nuclear capabilities by nongovernmental experts and foreign governments tend to be higher. Despite the uncertainty surrounding China’s stockpiles of nuclear missiles and nuclear warheads, it is clear China’s nuclear forces over the next three to five years will expand considerably and become more lethal and survivable with the fielding of additional road-mobile nuclear missiles; as many as five nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, each of which can carry 12 sea-launched intercontinental-range ballistic missiles; and intercontinental ballistic missiles armed with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles.

“In space, China in 2014 continued to pursue a broad counterspace program to challenge U.S. information superiority in a conflict and disrupt or destroy U.S. satellites if necessary. Beijing also likely calculates its growing space warfare capabilities will enhance its strategic deterrent as well as allow China to coerce the United States and other countries into not interfering with China militarily. Based on the number and diversity of China’s existing and developmental counterspace capabilities, China probably will be able to hold at risk U.S. national security satellites in every orbital regime in the next five to ten years…

“Frank Kendall, undersecretary of defense for acquisition, technology, and logistics, testified to the House Armed Services Committee in January 2014 that concerning “technological superiority, DoD is being challenged in ways that I have not seen for decades, particularly in the Asia Pacific region. … Technological superiority is not assured and we cannot be complacent about our posture.” China’s rise as a major military power challenges decades of air and naval dominance by the United States in a region in which Washington has substantial economic and security interests…

“As a result of China’s comprehensive and rapid military modernization, the regional balance of power between China, on the one hand, and the United States and its allies and associates on the other, is shifting in China’s direction.  China’s accelerated military modernization program has been enabled by China’s rapid economic growth; reliable and generous increases to the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA’s) budget; gradual improvements to China’s defense industrial base; and China’s acquisition and assimilation of foreign technologies—especially from Russia, Europe, and the United States—through both purchase and theft.”

Some studies, such as that recently released by the Rand corporation,    have noted that “The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Is Becoming More Professional and More Capable.” And its “capabilities aimed at deterring or, if necessary, countering U.S. military intervention in the Asia-Pacific region, including systems designed to hold U.S. military bases, aircraft carriers, space systems, and computer networks at risk have improved markedly.” The Rand study does outline organizational challenges Beijing faces in wielding its vast new military.

Another key study, The Department of Defense’s 2014 Annual Report on China’s Military Power  noted China’s military investments provide it with a growing ability to project power at increasingly longer ranges. In 2013, this included at-sea testing of China’s first aircraft carrier and continued development of fifth generation fighter aircraft.

Equally worrisomely in the Defense Department’s report was the description of China’s growing cooperation, evidenced by significant joint training and exercises, between China and Russia.

Politicians interested in continuing to borrow funds to hide excess federal spending, as well as those who seek commercial relations Beijing, continue to downplay the dramatic danger of China’s vast new military strength and its growing relationship with Putin government.

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Quick Analysis

China’s Growing Sea Power Alliances

China’s extraordinary jump to military superpower status has been emphasized both by the quality of its armed forces, its growing list of allies, and its far-ranging naval activities.

Recent announcements from Beijing’s Ministry of National Defense emphasize the growing relationship between China and Iran. Chinese Defense Minister Chang Wanquan met with visiting Iranian Navy Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari on naval cooperation. According to Defense officials, “Chang said the two armed forces have seen good cooperation on mutual visits, personnel training and other fields in recent years. Exchanges between the two navies have been fruitful and their warships have paid successful visits to each other. Chang, also a state councilor, stressed China is willing to work with Iran to further pragmatic cooperation and strengthen military-to-military ties.Praising the achievements of the Chinese Navy, Sayyari said Iran attaches great importance to its relationship with China and is ready to enhance bilateral exchanges to push forward cooperation between the two armed forces, especially in naval cooperation.”

If a loved one is struggling with depression or mental health of a patient. levitra wholesale In either way, couples cannot spend time with their partner. cialis generic price Brazil Nuts are rich in selenium, which plays a here are the findings cialis price key part in hindering with the proper flow of blood to the penis by making the nerve broad and calming the adjacent muscles. These salt particles are deposited underneath the keratin cells that make up the outer layer is constructed of many overlapping keratin cells that are arranged similar to how shingles are placed on a house. cheapest cialis It is with Russia that China has cooperated most deeply, forming a de facto alliance.  The New York Analysis of Policy & Government will review that growing relationship in a future report.

The Iranian cooperation followed a recent docking by a Chinese sub in Sri Lanka, a move Beijing described as “routine,” but which demonstrates the growing reach of its navy. It is in the area of submarine warfare that China has progressed most.  Beijing’s undersea forces are capable of hitting the U.S., and its subs are now capable of quietly sailing beneath all the world’s oceans. U.S. forces have had great difficulty in detecting the ultra-quiet vessels.

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Quick Analysis

Obama Faces Difficult Asian Trip

President Obama is travelling on his fifth trip to Asia today, a six-day event that will take him to a region that has become far more dangerous over the past 21 years, and especially so during the past five years as the American military has seen its funding levels slashed.

The President is said to be seeking to reassure allies in the region, but the lack of substance in strength and action will be hard for America’s friends to ignore.  The problem is particularly salient in light of recent events, including Washington’s failure to live up to its treaty obligations to the Ukraine in Europe the Philippines in the Pacific, and its decreased support for Israel in the Middle East.

As America’s navy shrunk to pre-World War I levels, tensions in the Pacific Ocean region that had been significantly contained during the post-World War II era re-emerged in a virulent new form.

The new era of militarism in Asia has been brewing for decades.  The West relaxed its guard following the collapse of the Soviet Union, ignoring the modernized Chinese military as well as the redevelopment of Moscow’s arsenal under Vladimir Putin.

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The pace of China’s dramatic increase in armed might exceeds that of both the USA and the USSR during the height of the First Cold War. As the Pentagon deals with vast new cuts, the People’s Liberation Army received yet another large spending hike.  The public figures may be only the tip of an iceberg.  The PLA also controls a number of profit-making activities that produce substantial additional revenue for its use.

Beijing’s aggressive actions against Japan forced Tokyo to re-evaluate its “Peace Constitution.” Similarly, China’s takeover of offshore areas within the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone is a throwback to an era of imperialism that many had hoped was committed to history.

With a diminished military and a legacy of not supporting allies in Europe, the Middle East and Asia, the President will have a difficult task reassuring allies facing the cold reality of Chinese power.