Obama’s Cuban trip – USA Gov Policy

The results of President Obama’s recent trip to Cuba, and, indeed, the reasons for his traveling there at all, remain shrouded in mystery.

The original timing of Washington’s opening of relations with Cuba raised eyebrows. The Russians had just resumed their naval presence in the island nation, ruled by the same family that had urged Moscow to strike the United States with nuclear weapons in the 1960’s. The harsh repression of the Cuban people had not considerably lessened, Havana continued to harbor American criminals, and the Castro regime still supported terrorists.

None of these factors had changed before the President’s visit, and none has even started to change since.

Raoul Castro humiliated Mr. Obama by not greeting him at the airport, did not express any willingness to discuss human rights issues in any meaningful way, and did not show any sign of disinviting Moscow’s spy ships from its ports. But the dictator did enthusiastically mention one point: his desire to have the United States return the Guantanamo Bay naval base to Cuba.

As the New York Analysis of Policy & Government noted before Mr. Obama flew to Cuba, the President has been dedicated to both closing the prison at the “Gitmo” base as well as reducing the overall U.S. defense budget.

There no reliable, fully comprehensive details of what the President and Castro discussed. We remain concerned that handing over the entire base to Havana may have been a key point.

The White House itself has not listed any significant gains for the U.S.:

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Those limited returns are hardly substantive.

The aftermath of the trip hardly provides any encouraging news. A Yahoo news item notes this disappointing fact:

“On Tuesday, President Obama addressed Cubans about the importance of human rights and peaceful dialogue. On Thursday, pro-democracy demonstrators in Havana were beaten and arrested by Cuban police agents just steps away from where Obama had spoken. The demonstration occurred three blocks from the Grand Theater of Havana, where Obama spoke live to the Cuban nation, and was swiftly broken up by plainclothes officers, who attacked demonstrators violently and then stuffed those they had captured into police cars and swept them away within moments. “

While Cuba has gained from the President’s visit, there is little more than “hope” that anything America is seeking will be accomplished. In a March 22 press conference, Secretary of State John Kerry was asked: “You’ve said in the past that the embargo would not be lifted unless there’s improvement on the human rights record of Cuba, yet yesterday the President said he believed that the embargo would be lifted. Would that happen if there is no progress in the human rights record in Cuba?”

Kerry’s response was typical of the vacillating foreign policy stance the Obama administration has adhered to:” No, I think the President is really referring to – it would be lifted over a period of time, because there will be, I’m confident, changes taking place. Changes are taking place in Cuba even now. I mean, I know some people want some dramatic announcement that all of a sudden, okay, here’s the new rules of the road, but that’s not the way it’s going to happen. But there is more political space today in Cuba than there was before the announcement of our embassy and before I came here to raise the flag, and in the year following, more people are traveling, more people are exchanging information, more people are meeting. There is an atmosphere of transformation that is taking place, and it doesn’t happen overnight anywhere. It has never happened; it’s been a slow, long building process in most places.”

This has been a standard course of action in President Obama’s international dealings. The United States provides solid concessions, such as handing Russia the lead in nuclear weapons in the New Start Treaty, giving Iran the financial considerations it seeks, and so on, while getting no guaranteed gains in return. It has not worked well for the U.S.

Mr. Obama’s March 21 visit to Cuba will the first by a U.S. president in 88 years. The question is why the President believes it is appropriate to travel there now.

U.S. Cuban relations, already rocky following Fidel Castro’s alliance with the U.S.S.R., took a dramatic turn for the worse when Havana decided to serve as a forward base for Moscow’s nuclear missiles in 1962. A little known postscript to that event, detailed by the World Press was Castro’s attempts to retain 100 tactical nuclear weapons even after the Soviets were forced to withdraw by a U.S. naval blockade. The Cuban regime wasn’t just a passive host. Havana urged Moscow to launch an atomic strike against America.

Despite The President’s claims that significant progress has been made, the facts speak otherwise. The Castro regime continues to oppress its people, and continues to support terrorism. In addition, it has again become an outpost for the Russian military in the western hemisphere.

Amnesty International reports that “Peaceful demonstrators and human rights activists are routinely detained for exercising their rights to freedom of expression, association, assembly and movement. Activists are often detained to stop them from attending public demonstrations or private meetings. Independent journalists reporting on these detentions are themselves harassed by the authorities or put behind bars. Often, the relatives of those detained are never informed of their loved ones’ whereabouts. According to the Cuban Commission for Human Rights and National Reconciliation (Comisión Cubana de Derechos Humanos y Reconciliación Nacional), there were 768 “politically” motivated detentions in August 2015 alone – up from 674 in July 2015. “

The situation, since Mr. Obama’s opening to the Castro regime, has become worse, not better.

It’s not just what the Castro regime does inside its own nation that’s a problem for the U.S.—it’s actions directly endangering America need to be taken into account.

The Congressional Research Service notes that “On April 14, 2015, the President announced his intention to rescind the terrorism designation (Cuba had remained on the State Department’s list of state sponsors of terrorism since 1982) from the government of Cuba, a decision that was fulfilled by the Secretary of State on May 29, 2015.” This is contrary to the evidence.

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Another issue noted in the 2013 terrorism report that has been mentioned for many years is Cuba’s harboring of fugitives wanted in the United States. The report maintained that Cuba provided such support as housing, food ration books, and medical care for these individuals. U.S. fugitives from justice in Cuba include convicted murderers and numerous hijackers, most of whom entered Cuba in the 1970s and early 1980s.16 For example, Joanne Chesimard, also known as Assata Shakur, was added to the FBI’s Most Wanted Terrorist list on May 2, 2013. Chesimard was part of militant group known as the Black Liberation Army. In 1977, she was convicted for the 1973 murder of a New Jersey State Police officer and sentenced to life in prison. Chesimard escaped from prison in 1979, and according to the FBI, lived underground before fleeing to Cuba in 1984.17 In addition to Chesimard and other fugitives from the past, a number of U.S. fugitives from justice wanted for Medicare and other types of insurance fraud reportedly have fled to Cuba in recent years.

The danger is even greater than terrorism.

The Diplomat reports that “A senior Russian defense official has announced that Moscow is looking to build military bases throughout different countries in Asia and the Western Hemisphere” including Cuba.”

Capital Hill Cubans notes that “Throughout the year, the Castro regime has continued to host and harbor Russian spy ships tasked with monitoring sensitive U.S. defense networks… The Russian research ship Yantar has been tracked from the northern Atlantic near Canada since late August as it makes its way south toward Cuba. Defense officials familiar with reports on the Russian ship say the Yantar is believed to be gathering intelligence on underwater sensors and other equipment used by U.S. nuclear submarines based at Kings Bay, Georgia. The submarines, their transit lanes and training areas stretch from the coastal base through the Atlantic to Europe.”

Fox News reports that Cuban troops are operating in Syria, manning Russian tanks as they attack rebel forces supported by the United States.

Cuba oppresses its own people, supports terrorism, and enthusiastically acts as a forward base for the dangerous and aggressive Putin regime. President Obama needs to explain why he believes it is appropriate to travel to Cuba, and why he continually and incorrectly states that conditions there have improved.

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.