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North Korea’s Ruling Party Prioritizes Nuclear Weapons

For the first time in 40 years, North Korea’s Worker’s Party, wholly subservient to Kim Jong-Un, has met. Rather than address the desperately impoverished state of the nation’s population, it concentrated on support for Kim’s policy of expanding the military’s nuclear weapons program. While the party proclaimed that it would not use atomic weapons unless “threatened,” the regime has employed that very term repeatedly over incidents that it has essentially initiated and in some cases fabricated.

Enormous strides have been made in North Korea’s nuclear weapons capabilities, including recent step forwards in launching submarine based nuclear missiles. Equally as worrisome, Pyongyang has engaged in proliferation of its advanced nuclear and missile technology, notably with Iran, which now, according to state organs, possesses the capability of reaching Israel and key U.S. bases with its missiles.

The U.S. Department of Defense has conveyed to Congress a report on North Korea’s military.  Of particular interest is North Korea’s heavy investment in weapons of mass destruction.  Here are the highlights:

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea) remains one of the most critical security challenges for the United States and the broader international community. In particular, North Korea’s willingness to undertake provocative and destabilizing behavior, including attacks on the Republic of Korea (ROK), its continued development of nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles, and its proliferation of weapons in contravention of United Nations Security Council resolutions (UNSCRs) pose a serious threat to the United States, the region, and the world.

Since assuming control in December 2011, Kim Jong Un has solidified his grip on power by embracing the coercive tools used by his father and grandfather. His regime has used force and the threat of force combined with inducements to quell domestic dissent and strengthen internal security; co-opt the North Korean military and elites; develop strategic military capabilities to deter external attack; and challenge the ROK and the U.S.-ROK Alliance. In April 2013, Kim announced the “byungjin” policy, which emphasizes the parallel development of the country’s economy and nuclear weapons program, to reinforce his regime’s domestic, diplomatic, economic, and security interests.

North Korea fields a large, conventional, forward-deployed military that retains the capability to inflict serious damage on the ROK, despite significant resource shortfalls and aging hardware. The U.S.-ROK Alliance has deterred large-scale conventional attacks by maintaining a robust combined defense posture and strong military readiness. On a smaller scale, however, the DPRK has demonstrated a willingness to use military provocation to achieve national goals. In August 2015, two North Korean landmines exploded in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), which seriously wounded two ROK soldiers, raised tensions on the Korean Peninsula for several weeks, and was resolved through high-level inter-Korean talks.

North Korea’s continued pursuit of nuclear technology and capabilities and development of intermediate- and long-range ballistic missile programs underscore the growing threat it poses to regional stability and U.S. national security. North Korea’s pursuit of a submarine-launched ballistic missile capability also highlights the regime’s commitment to diversifying its missile force, strengthening the missile force’s survivability, and finding new ways to coerce its neighbors. Furthermore, North Korea continues to proliferate ballistic missile technology prohibited under UNSCRs 1718, 1874, 2087, and 2094, exacerbating the security challenge for the United States and the international community.
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Weapons of Mass Destruction

Nuclear Weapons. North Korea continues to pursue a nuclear weapons program, having conducted nuclear tests in 2006, 2009, and 2013. In April 2013, less than two months after its third nuclear test, North Korea promulgated a domestic “Law on Consolidating Position as a Nuclear Weapons State” to provide a legal basis for its nuclear program and another signal that it does not intend to give up its pursuit of nuclear development. The law states “the nuclear weapons of the DPRK can only be used by a final order of the Supreme Commander of the Korean’s People’s Army (Kim Jong Un) to repel invasion or attack from a hostile nuclear weapons state and make retaliatory strikes.” North Korea continues to invest in its nuclear infrastructure and could conduct additional nuclear tests at any time. In 2010, North Korea revealed a uranium enrichment facility at Yongbyon that it claims is for producing fuel for a light water reactor under construction. In April 2013, North Korea announced its intent to restart and refurbish the nuclear facilities at Yongbyon, including the nuclear reactor that had been shut down since 2007 and the uranium enrichment facility.

The director of the DPRK Atomic Energy Institute confirmed in September 2015 that all of the nuclear facilities in Yongbyon, including the uranium enrichment plant and reactor, were “adjusted and altered” following the April 2013 announcement and restarted for the purpose of building its nuclear force. The director also claimed that scientists and technicians were enhancing the levels of various nuclear weapons in quality and quantity.

These activities violate North Korea’s obligations under UNSCRs 1718, 1874, 2087, and 2094, contravene its commitments under the September 19, 2005 Six-Party Talks Joint Statement, and increase the risk of proliferation.

Biological Weapons. DoD assesses that North Korea may consider the use of biological weapons as an option, contrary to its obligations under the Biological and Toxins Weapons Convention (BWC). North Korea continues to develop its biological research and development capabilities, but has yet to declare any relevant developments and has failed to provide a BWC Confidence-Building Measure declaration since 1990.

Chemical Weapons. North Korea probably has had a longstanding chemical weapons (CW) program with the capability to produce nerve, blister, blood, and choking agents and likely possesses a CW stockpile. North Korea probably could employ CW agents by modifying a variety of conventional munitions, including artillery and ballistic missiles. In addition, North Korean forces are prepared to operate in a contaminated environment; they train regularly in chemical defense operations. North Korea is not a party to the Chemical Weapons Convention.

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Iran deal is deeply flawed

The nuclear deal with Iran is deeply flawed.

Iran is already a signatory to the nuclear nonproliferation pact, an international obligation it has chosen to ignore. It has failed to report key portions of its atomic program as required by that treaty. What, then, are the prospects for compliance with the current deal?

According to the White House,

“Iran would need two key elements to construct a uranium bomb: tens of thousands of centrifuges and enough highly enriched uranium to produce enough material to construct a uranium bomb. “There are currently two uranium enrichment facilities in the country: the Natanz facility and the Fordow facility.

“Let’s take a look at Iran’s uranium stockpile first. Currently, Iran has a uranium stockpile to create 8 to ten nuclear bombs.“But thanks to this nuclear deal, Iran must reduce its stockpile of uranium by 98%, and will keep its level of uranium enrichment at 3.67% — significantly below the enrichment level needed to create a bomb. “Iran also needs tens of thousands of centrifuges to create highly enriched uranium for a bomb. Right now, Iran has nearly 20,000 centrifuges between their Natanz and Fordow facilities. But under this deal, Iran must reduce its centrifuges to 6,104 for the next ten years. No enrichment will be allowed at the Fordow facility at all, and the only centrifuges Iran will be allowed to use are their oldest and least efficient models…

“As it stands today, Iran has a large stockpile of enriched uranium and nearly 20,000 centrifuges, enough to create 8 to 10 bombs. If Iran decided to rush to make a bomb without the deal in place, it would take them 2 to 3 months until they had enough weapon-ready uranium (or highly enriched uranium) to build their first nuclear weapon. Left unchecked, that stockpile and that number of centrifuges would grow exponentially, practically guaranteeing that Iran could create a bomb—and create one quickly – if it so chose.

Not to mention, when the patents buy viagra pill of the ED sufferers. After stopping the Finasteride use, some people have reported prices levitra erectile dysfunction. Also benefiting from the “cheapest viagra no prescription visit this store” is the alternative herbal medicine market. Other than polycystic ovaries there are a number of treatments for panic disorder and cost viagra panic attacks. “This deal removes the key elements needed to create a bomb and prolongs Iran’s breakout time from 2-3 months to 1 year or more if Iran broke its commitments. Importantly, Iran won’t garner any new sanctions relief until the IAEA confirms that Iran has followed through with its end of the deal. And should Iran violate any aspect of this deal, the U.N., U.S., and E.U. can snap the sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy back into place.”

The key phrase of the White House statement: Under the deal, it would only take Iran a year to build a weapon. In return for extending the breakout period from three months to twelve, Tehran gets about a half-trillion dollars in assets. A great deal for Iran, a bad one for the rest of the world.  The lack of unrestrained inspection rights calls into question the intentions of Tehran to adhere to the agreement.

Rep. Mac Thornberry (R-Tx), chair of the House Armed Service Committee, “”If Iran decides to build a nuclear weapon, this deal only extends the timeline for Iran to break-out by 9 months – and that assumes that the agreement is being implemented precisely by all parties, which is dubious when we know Iran failed to adhere to the terms of the interim deal.  In exchange, Iran will receive billions in sanctions relief, a windfall to pursue its aggressive, destabilizing agenda in the region and beyond.  Whatever the claimed gains we get from this deal, it clearly does not outweigh the risks to the security in the region and to the United States and its interests.”

Clearly, Iran was motivated to come to the bargaining table in order to gain relief from sanctions and to have its asserts unfrozen. The Jerusalem Post quotes Israeli Education Minister Naftali Bennet’s view: “Western citizens who get up for another day at work or school, are not aware of the fact that about half a trillion dollars has been transferred to the hands of a terrorist superpower, the most dangerous country in the world, who has promised the destruction of nations and peoples.” His views were echoed by Deputy Foreign Minister Tzipi Hotovely, who stated that “The nuclear accord agreed upon in Vienna is a ‘historical capitulation of the West to the axis of evil led by Iran.”

Even under the best of circumstances, including full Iranian cooperation in inspections, the nation will essentially, after a decade, emerge unrestrained and stronger than ever. Rather than mandate an absolute right of inspection, a process is established that would allow Tehran to move key material around while a decision is pending on allowing a military base inspection to move forward.

The U.S. Congress has 60 days to review the agreement, but President Obama has stated that he would veto a verdict he disapproves of.

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The world’s nuclear arsenals

Russia now leads the United States in nuclear warheads, and China is the only nation known to have increased its total nuclear weapons stockpile in the past year, according to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI.)

The New York Analysis of Policy & Government has also reported that Moscow has a ten to one advantage in tactical nuclear weapons.

While information from the United States was readily accessible for the study,   “Russia divulged nothing officially, except in bilateral contacts with the U.S…China revealed little about its arsenal” according to SIPRI.

The Brookings Institute reports that “Russia has an array of strategic modernization programs underway. It has launched the first three of what are planned to be eight Borey-class ballistic missile submarines, which carry the new Bulava SLBM. Russia is also deploying the SS-27 Topol-M ICBM and its multiple-warhead variant, the RS-24 Yars, and plans to begin deployment of the RS-26 ICBM in 2016. The Russian Air Force is developing a new strategic bomber, the PAK-DA, to augment or replace its Tu-160 Blackjack and Tu-95 Bear-H aircraft… the Russian military is developing the new Sarmat ICBM, which will reportedly be capable of carrying as many as ten-fifteen warheads. Too large to be mobile, the liquid-fueled Sarmat will be silo-based. Russian analysts have criticized the planned program as destabilizing, particularly in a crisis. They note that large, multiple-warhead ICBMs in silos present attractive targets for a preemptive strike. Indeed, the U.S. Air Force decision to download its Minuteman III ICBMs was driven in part by the calculation that a single-warhead ICBM in a silo would, in a crisis, offer a less inviting target.”

Russia also has an additional advantage: the U.S. has replaced multiple warheads on its missiles with single warheads.

Sputnik News  reports that “The United States and NATO are observing rapid improvements in Russia’s military technologies with increased concern, particularly as US technological advantages over potential adversaries decrease…”

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Worldwide, the total number of nuclear weapons is decreasing, largely due to bilateral agreements between Russia and the U.S., but modernization of atomic arsenals continues.

Worldwide, the totals of warheads are:

Russia: 7,500; USA: 7,260;  China: 260—3,000;  France: 300;  U.K.: 215; Pakistan: 100-120;  India: 90-110; Israel: 80;  North Korea: 6—8.

The reason for the wide range of uncertainty in China’s nuclear arsenal involves the unusual tunnels Beijing has constructed for its nuclear arsenal. According to the U.S. China Economic and Security Review Commission,  “Does China only have 200 or so nuclear weapons? Perhaps. But if nuclear capable missile deployments is the current driver of how many nuclear weapons China has deployed, perhaps not. The Chinese, after all, claim that they have built 3,000 miles of tunnels to hide China’s missile forces and related warheads and that it continues to build such tunnels.10 If we can’t see all of the nuclear-capable missiles China might have, there’s a chance it may have more than we currently assume. If, in turn, the number of such missiles is a major driver of Chinese nuclear warhead deployments, the later number could be much higher than most assume.”

Iran may soon the nuclear club.  When it does so, it will have the means to deliver its weapons through technology from its space program and advanced missile technology.

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Russian nukes in Ukraine signal danger for the West

Why is Russia setting up a nuclear weapons infrastructure in its captured portion of Ukraine, and what does it mean for the West? (The Jamestown Foundation notes that “TU-22M3 long-range bombers, which would be able to carry and deliver [nuclear] weapons, have now been deployed to Crimea.”)

Although it rarely gets mentioned, Ukraine voluntarily surrendered its nuclear arsenal—the third largest in the world– in return for guarantees of its territorial sovereignty.

The US, the UK, and Russia signed the Budapest Memorandum in 1994 supposedly safeguarding Ukraine . Clearly, all three guarantors, Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom, have broken their word.  Moscow invaded and annexed a portion of Ukraine, and neither London nor Washington did anything substantive in response.

That failure sent a reverberating, powerful message to aggressors across the globe. Russia, which is in violation of other treaties, has learned that it can abrogate agreements with impunity.  So can other anti-Western powers.

Moscow currently is also in violation of the 1987 Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) . The Hudson Institute notes that “The agreement bans the testing or deployment of intermediate range cruise and ballistic missiles, those with a range between 500km and 5500 km. In its annual 2014 arms control Compliance Report, the Department of State noted that Russia had violated the pact when it deployed a ground-launched cruise missile, whose unique Iskandar system can fire both cruise and ballistic missiles and a system Russia plans to deploy to Crimea… Nor is it Russia’s only INF violation. Moscow also has converted a single-warhead ICBM into a three-warhead intermediate-range ballistic missile, a violation missing from the 2014 Compliance Report.”
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Iran and Syria know that America’s threats, and promises of protection to its allies, are not serious. China has harassed and stolen assets from its neighbors.

Apologists for Putin may claim that Russia is only solidifying his grip on a strategic occupied portion of Ukraine.  However, Jamestown reports that “Nor are these Russian military reinforcements seemingly aimed only at the strategic Ukrainian port city of Mariupol. They are also occurring in and around Belarus and sites in western Russia like Belgorod, where massed Russian forces can be turned against the inviting defense-industry target of Kharkiv, in northeastern Ukraine (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, March 16). These reinforcements also derive from previously announced plans to emphasize Russian military buildups for 2015, in the Baltic, Crimea and the Arctic (RIA Novosti, March 17). Moscow’s boosting of its nuclear and conventional forces suggests a continuing Russian effort not just to deter NATO but also to intimidate European governments.”

The message to the West is clear: Russia is asserting hegemony over the former Soviet republics and the Kremlin’s former captive nations in Eastern Europe. It is also returning to Moscow’s former desire to cow the rest of Europe into relative submission.

There has been an historically rapid turnaround from the late 20th century collapse of the Soviet Empire, and the potential era of peace that could have resulted from it.  The failure of the West, the United States in particular, to maintain an adequate military capability, and the pacifist/isolationist policies of the Obama Administration in particular, have squandered what was a true opportunity for a prolonged period of international peace.

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Will 2015 be the year Iran gets the bomb?

Will 2015 be the year that Iran gets the nuclear bomb?

Negotiations that were supposed to end in November have been extended until next summer, giving Tehran the time it needs to complete work on its atomic weapons project. Combined with the nation’s advanced missile technology, most clearly seen in its Shahab-3 missiles that have a range of 1,300 miles and its rapidly progressing space program  which will give the nation an ICBM capability,  that spells great danger for the world.

According to the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies,  the problem is that Iran will only agree to restrictions on its nuclear activities as long as they do not ultimately bar its path to a bomb. In the 12 months of negotiations conducted under the interim agreement, Iran won one major policy victory and gained four major concessions in the nuclear domain.
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In addition to softening sanctions, Omri Ceren, writing for Commentary, notes that Washington has given up all its bargaining chips. “Gone is the demand that Iran dismantle its centrifuges…Gone is the demand that Iran cease all enrichment. The deal widely believed to be on the table would leave them spinning thousands of centrifuges.  Gone is the demand that Iran downgrade its plutonium reactor…Gone is the demand that Iran halt its proliferation-sensitive missile activity.”

Combined with North Korea’s nuclear program, 2015 may present the most dangerous nuclear threats the world has seen in decades.

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What Needs to be Said about Iran

In the arcane world of diplomacy, the most vital and obvious statements are often left unsaid. All too frequently, the media reflects, without careful analysis, that same opaque semantic habit.

This has been particularly true in the ongoing nuclear weapons discussions with Iran.  What needs to be said, understood, and acted upon is this: Iran is a nation ruled by fanatical men who do evil things to their own population, especially females, and seek the ability to do equally evil acts upon the rest of the world. The route they have chosen to accomplish this goal is through the acquisition of nuclear weapons, which they can mount on their already potent rockets.

Tehran has not negotiated in good faith.  Therefore, the softening of sanctions and the extending of deadlines only serves to assist that nation in the pursuit of its unacceptable objectives.

As noted by Haleh Esfandiari and Robert S. Litwak, writing for the Wilson Center,

“Already, the extension of nuclear talks announced Monday is being portrayed in Iran as a victory for its negotiating team. In a televised interview Monday night, President Hasan Rouhani made clear that Iran would not stop its centrifuges or give up its technology. What’s been agreed to is, indeed, a bonus for Tehran as its government continues to access about $700 million a month from its frozen assets.”

Testifying before the Senate foreign Relations Committee on December 3, David Albright, President of the Institute for Science and International Security  stated that  “Iran is more likely today to choose a safe route [rather than a purely clandestine one] to preserving and further developing a capability to produce fissile material for a nuclear weapon. In the case of gas centrifuges, it is likely to seek to maintain and increase its capabilities at declared centrifuge sites, the associated centrifuge manufacturing complex, and centrifuge R&D facilities. It would view this path as the preferred one, because it can simply and legitimately claim that all its activities are civil in nature, even if it is actually hiding the goal of eventually seeking nuclear weapons.”

The Obama Administration had knowledge of the fact that Russia was aiding Iran’s nuclear aims, yet neither disclosed that fact to Congress nor responded to it by amending its discredited “reset” policy with Russia. Bret Stephens recently wrote in the Wall Street Journal that “Because the Administration lacks the political courage of its real convictions or the martial courage of its ones—we are wedded to this sham process of negotiation.”

In its quixotic (or worse) attempt to appease Iran, the White House has also not been honest with the American public about Tehran’s growing military/terrorist presence in Latin America, particularly in Venezuela and Bolivia.

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“Iran has actively been developing Latin America as a base from which to launch military and terrorist assaults on the United States. There is bipartisan concern in Congress that the White House has not responded to the threat, although the problem is recognized. Before departing to a visit to Columbia, Defense Secretary Panetta noted that “We always have a concern about, in particular, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and [their] efforts to expand their influence not only throughout the Middle East but also into this region…that relates to expanding terrorism.”

Reports from around the world have noted Tehran’s growing military presence in the Western Hemisphere. Germany’s Die Welt newspaper described the Islamic Republic’s construction of intermediate range missile launch pads on Venezuela’s Paraguana Peninsula.

The threat is not confined to low-level tactics. There is mounting concern that both nuclear and ballistic missile threats are emerging from Venezuelan-Iranian cooperation. The Tehran/Caracas axis, encouraged by Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, is particularly troubling. According to The Heritage Foundation’s Peter Brooks, the two nations have a Memorandum of Understanding “pledging full military support and cooperation…”

Robert F. Noriega, the former ambassador to the Organization of American States and former Assistant secretary of State, notes that “Iranian officials have made no secret of the regime’s intention to carry its asymmetrical struggle to the streets of the United States and Europe.” Noriega is concerned that the White House is not adequately concerned about these developments, and in fact has “misinformed” Congress as to their seriousness.

Congress has been attempting to get the White House to focus on the problem for some time. Many members, both democrat and Republican, were distressed by the Administration’s cutting $13 million annually from its Southern Command military budget (which has responsibility for the region) and its refusal to beef up intelligence assets in the vicinity. Last July, Rep. Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.) along with several colleagues submitted a letter to the State Department expressing concern on Iran’s hostile acts in South America.

According to Rep. Jeff Duncan (R-SC) Iran has used its terrorist Hezbollah proxy force in the tri-border area of Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay, to gain influence and power; built numerous “cultural centers” and overstaffed embassies to assist its covert goals; and supported the activities of the terrorist group Hamas in South America.”

As the Obama Administration grants yet another move softening its position on Iran’s growing nuclear capabilities, it considers initiating sanctions on Israel due to that nation’s construction of new housing in Jerusalem. The move highlights the White House’s bizarre foreign policy choices.

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North Korea rejects dialogue on human rights, nuclear weapons

In an announcement first reported by Spacewar.com, the North Korean Foreign Ministry has ruled out any dialogue concerning either human rights or its nuclear program.

The pronouncement came in anticipation of the imminent presentation by the European Union and Japan to the United Nations General Assembly describing horrific abuses by the Pyongyang regime, including numerous accounts of “extermination, murder, enslavement, torture, imprisonment, rape, forced abortions and other sexual enslavement.”

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The issue has become more urgent following reports that the regime has, according to a spacedaily.com report, constructed a test facility at the Sinpo South Shipyard, apparently intended to develop sea-based ballistic missiles.  The capability could facilitate either a surprise nuclear strike, an EMP attack, or provide the regime with a means to retaliate in the event a pre-emptive strike occurs to take out the country’s nuclear assets.

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Key Leaders Protest Defective Iran Nuclear Deal

The Center for Security Policy  has released a letter signed by key national security personnel denouncing the Obama administration’s conduct of nuclear talks with Iran and what they describe as “the seriously defective deal likely to emerge from them.”

 The signatories emphasize that the United States and its Western allies have already surrendered too much to Iran. They express concern that the White House will provide even more concessions.  All of these give-aways have not deterred Iran from reaching its goal of becoming a nuclear weapons state.

Iran’s advanced space and rocketry programs provide that nation with the means to soon be able to launch weapons of mass destruction at any target on Earth.

Key problems with the potential agreement identified in the open letter include:

  • The deal will effectively concede to Iran the “right” to enrich uranium and allow Iran to continue uranium enrichment.
  • It will permit Iran to install new, still more advanced centrifuges and to retain its large stockpile of low-enriched uranium.
  •  It will not require Iran to disassemble existing centrifuges, its underground Fordow enrichment facility or its plutonium-producing Arak heavy water reactor now under construction.
  • A key constitutional issue has also been raised. President Obama’s has no  intention of allowing  the U.S. Congress any say in the potential deal, or his plan to unilaterally suspend mandated U.S. sanctions against Iran once a final accord is reached.

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Iran is already defying a key premise of this year’s nuclear talks and prerequisite for any future deal – namely, that the regime in Tehran would cooperate fully with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

The signatories note estimates by three leading Washington think tanks that Iran will retain its presently assessed capability of producing weapons-grade nuclear fuel in as little as four-to-six weeks from a decision to do so.

Iran has failed to live up to its commitments, and there is no evidence that it will abide by any future obligations in the comprehensive agreement that the Obama administration is trying to finalize by November 24.  There is no reason to expect that the Tehran regime will abide by the potential accord or cooperate with efforts to monitor future compliance.

–TEXT OF LETTER–

November 14, 2014

United States Capitol

East Capitol St. NE & First St. SE

Washington, DC 20004

Dear Speaker Boehner, Senator Reid, Senator McConnell, and Representative Pelosi:

We are writing to urge that the United States Congress take immediate action to repudiate the current nuclear talks with Iran and any agreement they may produce.  We urge Congress to pass legislation to this effect that also prevents the Administration from waiving sanctions or moving forward with any executive agreements to conclude a nuclear agreement with Iran without full Congressional review.  We are calling on Congress to take this action because we believe the United States and its Western allies have already given away too much to Iran in these negotiations and that any agreement that emerges as a result will be a threat to our interests, allies and security.

Examples of the problems with the emerging deal abound:  We have effectively conceded to Iran the “right” to enrich uranium.  The United States has offered one-sided concessions allowing Iran to continue uranium enrichment, install new, more advanced centrifuges, and retain its large stockpile of low-enriched uranium.  The United States is not requiring Iran to disassemble centrifuges, its underground Fordow enrichment facility or its plutonium-producing Arak heavy water reactor now under construction U.S. diplomats recently offered new concessions which will allow Iran to operate up to 6,000 uranium centrifuges.

We believe these concessions put American and international security at risk because they will do virtually nothing to stop, or even to substantially delay, Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons.  Estimates by the American Enterprise Institute, the Institute for Science and International Security, and the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center on how fast Iran could make enough weapons-grade uranium for one nuclear bomb using reactor-grade uranium currently range from four to six weeks.  According to Harvard University’s Belfer Center, Iran could make up to seven nuclear bombs from its current stockpile of low-enriched uranium (after further, possibly undetectable enrichment).

In exchange for the above concessions, the Obama administration has asked for very minor accommodations by Tehran. The end result will not reduce the number of nuclear bombs it can currently construct.  In fact, it would only delay the time for Iran to produce enough weapons-grade fuel for its first bomb by as little as two weeks.

In addition to our grave concerns about U.S. concessions to Iran during this year’s nuclear talks, we also are alarmed that Tehran has defied a central premise of the negotiations: full cooperation with the IAEA and answering all outstanding questions about whether its nuclear program is truly peaceful.

According to a September 5, 2014 IAEA report, Iran continues to refuse to resolve “outstanding issues over possible military dimensions of its nuclear program.”  We also note that an October 31, 2014 New York Times report which revealed that, “Iran had stopped answering the agency’s questions about suspected past efforts to design the components of a bomb.”

We believe that, since Iran has failed to cooperate fully with the IAEA either during the nuclear negotiations or, indeed, ever since its accession to the Nonproliferation Treaty there is negligible likelihood that its cooperation with the IAEA will improve after a final agreement is signed.

Iran’s strategy in the nuclear talks is crystal clear: offer minimal and inconsequential concessions and limited transparency on its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of Western sanctions.  Iran’s negotiating strategy has included a refusal to dismantle nuclear facilities and demands for an increased uranium enrichment capacity.  As long as this is Iran’s purpose, we believe an agreement that will result in the actual and permanent termination of the Iranian nuclear weapons program is impossible.

Given Iran’s long record of covert nuclear activities with weapons applications and its continuing refusal to cooperate with the IAEA and answer outstanding questions about its nuclear program, we believe the responsibility rests with Tehran to resolve all outstanding issues before any final agreement eviscerates the only remaining leverage we have: the still-extant U.S. and international sanctions.  Further, we believe that the United States must demonstrate resolve in demanding the Iranian regime verifiably dismantle any facilities that could permit progress towards a deliverable nuclear weapons capability.

To make matters worse, recent press reports indicate that President Obama plans to deny the U.S. Congress any say in the forthcoming nuclear agreement with Iran, and that he intends unilaterally to suspend U.S. sanctions against Iran once a final accord is reached.

Surely, there will be wide, bipartisan agreement on both sides of Capitol Hill that it would be a grave mistake to go forward with any nuclear deal with Iran without the express support of the U.S. Congress. The legislative branch knows that, once the current sanctions regime against Iran by the United States and counterpart sanctions imposed by the Europeans disappear, it will be difficult – if not as a practical matter, impossible – to reestablish them, even if Iran does not live up to its obligations.

It is, therefore, time for Congress to act.  By making clear that the legislative branch does not support the agreement now being finalized, there is a chance of preventing a bad deal from being concluded with far-reaching and negative consequences.  The talks with Iran have drifted so far from reality, and our minimum requirements, that they are certain to produce a bad deal that cannot be salvaged.

America’s allies in the region, especially Israel and Saudi Arabia, are rightly alarmed at the prospect that Iran is being enabled to go nuclear by the U.S. and the rest of the P-5 plus 1.  Among other possible responses could be a decision by the Saudis to develop their own nuclear weapons program, or simply buy one or more nuclear weapons from another state, setting off a spiral of further proliferation likely to make the region even more unstable and dangerous.

We therefore respectfully call on Congress to adopt legislation to repudiate the nuclear agreement now taking shape.  We urge you and your colleagues to insist that a coherent, realistic and firm U.S. policy be adopted instead, one aimed at actually preventing the Iranian regime from realizing its nuclear weapons ambitions.  This should require, at a minimum, that there be no further easing of sanctions or further talks with Iran until Tehran complies with all UN Security Council resolutions related to  its nuclear program, fully cooperates with the IAEA, and provides truthful answers to all outstanding questions about its nuclear program.

Sincerely,

Hon. Peter Hoekstra

Former Chairman, House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence

Lieutenant General William G. Boykin, U.S. Army (Ret.)

Former Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence

Admiral James A. Lyons, U.S. Navy (Ret.)

Former Commander-in-Chief, Pacific Fleet

Hon. Michelle Van Cleave

Former National Counterintelligence Executive

Hon. Paula DeSutter

Former Assistant Secretary of State for Verification and Compliance

Frank J. Gaffney, Jr.

Former Assistant Secretary of Defense (Acting)

Jack David

Hudson Institute Senior Fellow and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense

David Wurmser

Former Senior Adviser to Vice President Cheney and Founder, Delphi Global Analysis Group

Rich Lowry

Editor, National Review

Daniel Pipes

President, Middle East Forum

Lt. Col. Ralph Peters

U.S. Army (Ret)

Michael Rubin

Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute

Sarah Stern

Founder and President, Endowment for Middle East Truth

Daniel Pollak

Co-Director, Government Relations, Zionist Organization of America

Yleem Poblete

Former Staff Director, House Foreign Affairs Committee

Clare M. Lopez

Former CIA Officer

Frederick Fleitz

Former CIA Officer

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Quick Analysis

Russians Practice Nuke Strike vs. US

Russian nuclear-capable bombers engaged in maneuvers practicing the launching of cruise missiles against the United States last week, reports the Washington Free Beacon. The incident, which occurred as NATO leaders met in Wales, can be considered part of a larger nuclear exercise by Moscow.

The Kremlin’s growing enthusiasm for nuclear weapons and the means to launch them has been noted in several different areas.  Russia has moved theater atomic weapons to its European border, (Moscow has a ten to one advantage in tactical nuclear weapons) and modernized its equipment.  It has resumed bomber and submarine patrols off American coastlines.

As the United States and its allies have slashed defense budgets, and as President Obama has called for unilateral cuts in the American nuclear arsenal, the Kremlin has taken precisely the opposite course, providing greater funds for its military and building up its nuclear capabilities.
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Russia has also violated the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force treaty.  The INF agreement was a landmark diplomatic achievement in 1988, which provided for the complete elimination of an entire class of weapons, including ground-launched missiles with a range of 500 to 5,500 kilometers.  The possession or production of such weapons was strictly prohibited.

These facts have hardly been reported in the major media and seem to have had little to no influence on the White House’s ongoing bid to reduce American military funding.

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Quick Analysis

Wishful thinking is not a strategy

The positions on military issues adhered to by the White House, most Democrats, and isolationists such as Rand Paul, which can best be described as wishful thinking, continue to pose a danger for U.S. National Security.

The media has, for the most part, not provided adequate coverage of the international arms buildup by enemies of the West, at the same time that America and its allies continue to allow their military capabilities to deteriorate. Lop-sided treaties have also played a role in adding to the growing danger.  The New START nuclear arms treaty, for example, left Russia with a 10 to 1 advantage in tactical nuclear arms and didn’t place any restrictions on China at all. The sanctions that were supposed to deter Iran’s nuclear program have been weakened, and North Korea continues to enhance its growing atomic weapons program, which they can now launch with ICBMS against the American homeland.

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Washington can’t continue to pretend its way out of this crisis, even if the media continues to ignore the issue.