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Iranian Missile Threat

The world’s attention is currently focused on North Korea, but Iran should not be ignored due to its weapons program, its support for worldwide terrorism, and its ongoing aggressiveness in the Middle East. The Iran nuclear deal, which only temporarily slowed down Iran’s atomic weapons program, has not affected that nations’ strategic delivery systems development, including both ballistic and cruise missiles.

According to Ian Williams’ report for the American Foreign Policy Council (AFPC.) , “Iran has invested significantly in the development of its strategic forces which today includes the region’s largest and most diverse arsenal of ballistic missiles, increasingly sophisticated cruise missiles, as well as an array of shorter-ranged anti-ship missiles … Iran has also established the technological basis for a nuclear weapons program. This effort has included a blend of overt activities under the auspices of a civilian nuclear energy program, and covert activities aimed at expanding Iran’s nuclear weapons potential without international blowback…even those with the highest hopes for the long-term efficacy of JCPOA  [Iran nuclear deal]  cannot deny that the agreement entirely neglects significant aspects  of malign Iranian behavior. In fact, mounting evidence suggests that the structure of the nuclear deal, its limitations, and its associated provisions have actually had the opposite of their intended effect, abetting and emboldening Iranian behavior and capabilities that fall outside of the parameters of the JCPOA…nuclear weapons, these forces give Iran the ability to impose significant costs upon the United States and its regional partners should conflict occur. They also provide Iran with a kind of deterrent cover to pursue its malign activities in the region with less perceived risk of direct military confrontation with the United States, the Gulf Cooperation Council states, and/or Israel. Such a dynamic could easily to lead to strategic miscalculation and conflict.”

A Fox News report based on a Foundation for Defense of Democracies study revealed that Iran has aggressively pursued its ballistic missile program “since agreeing to the 2015 nuclear deal…Iran has fired some 23 missiles …as many as 16 of them nuclear-capable… the robust missile program shows the Islamic republic is bent on intimidating its enemies and preparing for the day when it can do so with the ultimate weapon of mass destruction.”

A Foreign Policy  analysis notes that  “ According to multiple Directors of National Intelligence, Tehran boasts the Middle East’s biggest ballistic missile arsenal. This poses both a conventional and an unconventional threat, with many missiles exceeding the specifications that make them nuclear capable.”
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Iran is proliferating its missile weaponry. The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, has stated  that  “…the Iranian regime’s behavior is growing worse…Its ballistic missiles and advanced weapons are turning up in warzones across the region…In its strongest language yet, the Secretary-General’s report describes violation after violation of weapons transfers and ballistic missile activity.”

Iran is rapidly developing the ability to directly threaten the American homeland. An NTI study notes that “In addition to its missile program, Iran possesses a space launch capability. Iran has successfully launched several satellites aboard its space launch vehicle (SLV) the Safir, with reports of an attempted launch from the new Simorgh SLV. Many have expressed concern over the dual- use capabilities of these systems and their potential application for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).

NTI notes that “Iran is not a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime or the Hague Code of Conduct against Ballistic Missile Proliferation. In 2015, to support implementation of the JCPOA, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2231, which called on Iran ‘not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons.’ The U.S., U.K., France, and Germany have claimed that Iran’s subsequent ballistic missile tests were ‘inconsistent with’ and ‘in defiance of’ UNSCR 2231, with the U.S. imposing sanctions on Iran in response to its ballistic missile tests, most recently in 2017.”

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Past U.S. Policy Failures Led to North Korean Crisis

The reality that the entire U.S. mainland, and indeed, much of the world, is now in range of North Korea’s nuclear capability is a sobering one, particularly when combined with the fact that even North Korea’s limited atomic arsenal is fully capable of destroying the entire USA through an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack.

Over the past several decades, the U.S. “gave peace a chance.”  President Bill Clinton tried buying off North Korea with aid.  President Bush largely ignored the crisis as he concentrated  on the Middle East. President Obama reduced the size of the U.S. military. All of those approaches failed.

China has the capability of completely turning off the North Korean economy.  Despite verbally opposing Pyongyang’s atomic program, it has taken no effective steps to do so.  Russia has seen the entire situation as yet another opportunity to take advantage of America.  Both have urged the U.S. to essentially abandon South Korea in return for a denuclearized North Korea, which would be a major victory for China and Russia and the beginning of the end of democracies in the Pacific region and Asia.

Kim Jong Un has observed that, over the past 8 years, the U.S. was kinder to its enemies than its friends.  The entire Obama Mideast policy tilted in favor of Iran, despite that nation’s constant devotion to the policy of “Death to the USA.”  Meanwhile, Obama assisted in the destruction of Muammar Gaddafi, who had given up his nuclear program and turned away from terrorism.  The same thing occurred in Egypt, which under Mubarak had favored peace in the region and a rejection of terrorism.  Obama urged his ouster, and favored his replacement with a Moslem Brotherhood advocate.

From his perspective, Kim’s actions are wholly rational.  He is doing what he has observed led to the enrichment and survival of regimes such as those in Iran, and avoiding the policies of those governments such as that of Libya, which acceded to U.S. demands and were subsequently wiped out. Add to that the fact that, despite the horrors of his regime, he now has China and Russia openly advocating the U.S. abandon its South Korean ally in return for North Korea’s pledge to eliminate its nuclear arsenal, a pledge North Korea has repeatedly violated, and one can easily discern the logic of what Kim is doing.
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After all the years of equivocation by Washington, Kim does not believe the U.S. will take any action, so he feels free to engage in whatever provocation he wishes, assured that he can only gain by aggression, and lose by compromise.

Kim also knows that the state of American politics is such that President Trump will be portrayed by leftist within the U.S. as a warmonger if he takes any military steps against North Korea. Kim is also fully aware that the American military is at its lowest level of strength in many years, a result of the disinvestment that occurred as a result of both Obama’s policies and the sequester.

There are steps short of military action available to Washington.  An attempt must be made to induce China to act more responsibly by beginning to limit the importation of Chinese goods to the U.S. and allied nations. America’s commitment to its Asian and Pacific allies, and the permanence of that commitment, must be made clear through the enhanced placement of military assets in the region.  The U.S. anti-ballistic missile shield should be dramatically strengthened. U.S. powerplants should be hardened against an EMP attack. And, of course, the disinvestment in America’s armed forces must be reversed, even more so than the recent defense budget provides.

It is far too easy to portray the North Korean regime as being irrational.  Each action it has taken has had a proven track record of success—all of it leading to the current and very real crisis and threat of nuclear attack.  Until the United States clearly demonstrates to Kim and his allies in Beijing and Moscow that there will be dire consequences, the world will move ever closer to nuclear war.

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Obama/Clinton Nuclear Policies Endanger America

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government’s two-part overview of Russia’s relatively  little-reported national security challenges to the United States begins today

The mainstream American media is apparently sleepwalking through one of the most dangerous challenges in the nation’s history.

Barely remarked upon in either electronic or print journalism, and little more than an extremely brief afterthought in presidential debate questioning, Moscow’s extraordinary military buildup, its blatant preparations for a major conflict with the United States, and its aggressive actions across the face of the globe have received less attention than the Kardashians’ wardrobe.

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government has often discussed how Russia became the world’s foremost nuclear power, thanks to the Obama/Clinton “Reset” with the Kremlin which gave away America’s lead in nuclear weapons, leaving Putin with the most powerful strategic atomic arsenal on the planet, (the U.S. State Department reports that Moscow has 1,796 warheads to America’s 1367) and a ten to one lead in tactical atomic weapons as well. Moscow’s resumption of nuclear armed patrols off the coasts of the U.S. and its use of Nicaragua as a landing site for its atomic bomb bearing aircraft hardly gets mentioned outside of the New York Analysis and defense-oriented publications. Putin’s $800 billion hike in military spending while America slashes its defense budget doesn’t seem to make a dent in the headlines.

Here are some other worrisome actions the American media seems to find not worthy of major note:

  • The United Kingdom newspaper The Sun reports that Russia recently held a massive evacuation drill for more than 40 million people, including over 200,000 emergency services personnel and soldiers will use 50,000 pieces of equipment during the massive civil defence exercise. The exercise, run by EMERCOM, Russia’s Emergencies Ministry, is what the nation would do in preparation for a nuclear war.
  • The Daily Mail  noted that Putin has reportedly ordered officials to fly home all relatives from across the planet.
  • Newsweek discloses that Russia has moved nuclear-capable Iskander-M missiles into the Kaliningrad enclave bordering Poland and Lithuania.
  • The Independent has reprinted comments by “Russia’s chief propagandist” warning that any American action regarding Syrian/ISIS which Moscow disproves of could have “nuclear implications.” The authors describes the reactions of European officials: “The German foreign minister claimed that mounting tensions between the US and Russia have led to a global political situation which is ‘more dangerous’ than the Cold War. Writing for German newspaper Bild, Frank-Walter Steinmeir wrote: “It’s a fallacy to think that this is like the Cold War. The current times are different and more dangerous”.
  • According to the Russian news source RT Russia will soon unveil a new stealth strategic bomber, known as the PAK-DA. “The plane is expected to cover a range of 6,470 nautical miles and carry 30-40 tons of weapons…”According to another United Kingdom publication, The Mirror Russia has developed the world’s first weapon to successfully use microwave energy.

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While the United States has reduced its nuclear arsenal, and while former secretary Hillary Clinton opposes spending the funds necessary to adequately maintain those that remain, Russia has moved ahead in modernizing its atomic prowess.

Moscow is not relying solely on force of arms to achieve its aggressive purposes. A study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies found that the Kremlin was engaging in “A strategy designed to exploit governance deficits to weaken the internal cohesion of democratic societies and strengthen the perception of Western economic and political dysfunction by influencing and eroding democratic governance from within… Our study found that countries in which Russia’s economic footprint was on average more than 12 percent of its GDP were generally more vulnerable to pressure via economic tools such as gas supply and transit, corporate raiding of key national companies, and capture of strategic sectors. For those countries with less than 12 percent of GDP, Russia has relied on high-level political patronage, visits, and support for foreign policy positions contrary to Euro-Atlantic values and objectives… The United States cannot afford to remain indifferent to events in Europe or at home, as Russian influence is not just a domestic governance challenge but a national security threat.”

The Report concludes tomorrow

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Taking nuclear assault seriously

The Washington Free Beacon, almost alone among significant American print media sources, reported that two nuclear-capable Russian bombers flew into the U.S. air defense zone in Alaska on April 22. That information is frightening enough.  But further information was even more worrisome.  The U.S. failed to scramble any interceptors to meet the intruders.

Russian nuclear capable craft have repeatedly flown into American air space, and Moscow’s nuclear subs have snuck into the coastlines of Sweden, Finland, and the U.S. gulf coast.

The Scandinavian nations have at least attempted to take measures against the Russian intruders. But the latest information, that no interceptors were scrambled on April 22, raises questions about whether the White House takes the challenge seriously, and whether it understands the dimensions of this clear threat to America’s survival.

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“Nuclear war is the only foreseeable threat to America’s survival in this century, and Russia is the most plausible nation from which a large-scale nuclear attack might originate… The current U.S. strategic posture, which threatens massive retaliation to deter nuclear attack, probably cannot be sustained indefinitely. Some day, in some way, deterrence will break down. Ten nuclear warheads could collapse the U.S. electric grid. Fifty could render every major city uninhabitable. Two hundred might well spell the end of American civilization. Most of the Russian warheads are mounted on long-range ballistic missiles, and Washington currently has no plan for intercepting such weapons if they are launched in large numbers. During the Cold War, U.S. leaders made a deliberate decision to forego strategic defenses of the homeland in order to stabilize the superpower arms race. The current U.S. strategic posture, designed mainly to deter rational adversaries, cannot cope with a wide array of potential scenarios such as irrational leaders, accidental launches or breakdowns in the chain of command. To cope with the full spectrum of ballistic threats to America’s homeland, a layered defense including interceptor missiles and/or beam weapons is required. The system would be costly, but not compared with the value of assets that could be destroyed in a nuclear war. However, current plans call for spending less than one-percent of the defense budget on relevant technologies. The physics of countering large-scale nuclear attacks are daunting but doable. The logical place to begin is by expanding the current Ground-based Midcourse Defense deployed on the U.S. West Coast, which is oriented mainly to threats from North Korea but could be configured to intercept Russian warheads more effectively. Other assets already in the joint force such as the sea-based Aegis combat system could be upgraded to create a nascent layered architecture. A truly robust system would probably require a space-based layer too. If these steps are not taken, there will be no way of protecting America on the day deterrence fails.”

President Obama is well known for his vehement opposition to an adequate Pentagon budget in general—it has dropped precipitously under his watch– and to defenses against nuclear weapons in particular, whether by anti-ballistic missiles, a program he consistently seeks to de-fund, or through the maintenance of nuclear weaponry to serve as a deterrent. He allowed Moscow to gain an advantage in nuclear weapons for the first time in history, and has explored the possibility of further unilateral cuts in the American arsenal.

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Nuclear missile and bomber threats against U.S. homeland escalate

As the New York Analysis of Policy & Government has reported previously, the rapid and intense increase in threats to the national security of the United States has been largely un-addressed by the White House and under-reported by the major media. Two days ago, NORAD‘s   commander testified before the U.S. Senate. We present the key part of his comments.

STATEMENT OF ADMIRAL WILLIAM E. GORTNEY, UNITED STATES NAVY COMMANDER UNITED STATES NORTHERN COMMAND AND NORTH AMERICAN AEROSPACE DEFENSE COMMAND BEFORE THE SENATE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE MARCH 12, 2015

The past year has marked a notable increase in Russian military assertiveness on the world stage, including in the approaches to the homelands. Russian heavy bombers flew more out-of-area patrols in 2014 than in any year since the Cold War. We have also witnessed improved interoperability between Russian long-range aviation and other elements of the Russian military, including air and maritime intelligence collection platforms positioned to monitor NORAD responses. While these patrols serve a training function for Russian air crews, 5 some are clearly intended to underscore Moscow’s global reach and communicate its displeasure with Western policies, particularly with regard to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia is progressing toward its goal of deploying long-range, conventionally-armed cruise missiles with ever increasing stand-off launch distances on its heavy bombers, submarines and surface combatants, augmenting the Kremlin’s toolkit of flexible deterrent options short of the nuclear threshold. Should these trends continue, over time NORAD will face increased risk in our ability to defend North America against Russian air, maritime, and cruise missile threats.
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We remain vigilant against states that may seek to put North America at risk with ballistic missiles. Today we are focused primarily on North Korea and Iran, as both seek to advance their nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities. North Korea has successfully test detonated three nuclear devices and, through its space program, has demonstrated many of the technologies required for an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) that could target the continental United States. Meanwhile, North Korean military parades have showcased the new KN08 road-mobile ICBM. When deployed, this system will complicate our ability to provide warning and defend against an attack. Iran has likewise committed considerable resources to enhancing its ballistic missile capabilities and has already placed another satellite into orbit this year using a new booster that could serve as a demonstrator for ICBM technologies.

Despite international condemnation and sanctions, Iran has failed to cooperate fully with the International Atomic Energy Agency to resolve all outstanding concerns regarding its nuclear program, particularly those concerning its possible military dimensions. While we remain hopeful that current negotiations with the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany (P5+1) will lead to a 6 diplomatic solution which addresses the international community’s concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear program comprehensively and in a durable fashion, we will continue to remain vigilant.

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The Election is Over; Now its time to address America’s Crises

The 2014 elections are finally over, and the work of actually resolving America’s many crises must begin.

There is a temptation for the public, the pundits and the politicians alike to say that the nation’s enormous challenges can’t be resolved before the 2016 presidential election, and to accept only minor revisions to the strategies that have resulted in the country’ diminished fortunes over the past several years. But the dire impact of erroneous policies is so significant that delay is unacceptable. Congress must act rapidly, and the President must find the courage and honesty to change course.

The essential linchpin of the American economy is a healthy middle class. A combination of the expiration of the Bush tax cuts, the increased costs to businesses and consumers alike of Obamacare, heightened fuel prices, and the loss of steady jobs has wreaked havoc with this vital group.

Before the next federal budget is passed, action must be taken to lower taxes on middle income families.  Similarly, the various regulations, including Obamacare mandates that have discouraged businesses from growing and expanding their employment rolls must be repealed. This should also include reducing America’s absurdly high corporate tax rate, which encourages businesses to leave the U.S. and take jobs with them.

The U.S. balance of trade continues to see far too many dollars going overseas. It is time to keep those funds at home, where they can be used to spark the domestic economy.  The most rapid way of doing that is making the nation truly energy independent. Lands under federal control must finally be opened for energy exploitation. Also, attempts to limit other energy sources, including coal, must stop. This will also have two other beneficial effects: it will lower the cost of energy, reducing may other consumer and business expenses, and will also limit the enormous funds Russia and ISIS take in from energy sales that are funneled to their militaries.

It is also time to review American trade policies.  Unfair advantages have been given to foreign competitors, who, not subject to a variety of rigorous federal rules, can manufacture far more cheaply than U.S. companies. Goods imported from abroad for sale in the U.S. should be subjected to similar mandates,or be subjected to fees that level the playing field. Further, nations that restrict imports from America should have reciprocal limitations placed on their exports.
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The most imminent threat, one that has reached a level that constitutes a clear, present and immediate danger to the safety of all Americans, is the dramatic deterioration of America’s defense posture during the past several years. The U.S. military had already been slashed to the bone, best symbolized by the Navy’s reduction from 600 ships to 284. Under the severe cuts of the past several years, America has seen force drops reducing our services to levels not seen since before the First World War.  Under current plans, even North Korea will have a larger army than ours. These reductions have taken place at the same time that Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran have dramatically built up both the size and sophistication of their forces.

Further, in an era when nuclear proliferation is a disturbing reality, and when regimes such as Iran and North Korea are on the verge of having both nuclear weapons and the ICBMs with which to use them to attack America, it is irresponsible to not deploy a comprehensive anti-missile policy.

These threats must be addressed in the next federal budget.

The Legislative Branch must reassert its role as a check on the Executive Branch far more vigorously. During the era of the Obama Presidency, federal agencies such as the IRS, the Federal Communications Commission, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Education, and most ominously the Department of Justice have all been used for partisan political gain.  This must cease, and it is within the authority and capability of the newly elected Congress to viably and rapidly address that threat to the American Constitution.

These are crises whose solutions cannot be postponed.