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Nuclear Terrorism Threat Grows

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government takes a two-part look at the threat of nuclear terrorism. 

NATO is warning  that the West should consider the potential danger of an attack by terrorist using weapons of mass destruction.

The organization is not being overly cautious. An Economist study notes that  “24 states still have 1kg or more of weapons-usable nuclear materials, and nearly 2,000 tonnes of weapons-usable nuclear materials (1,400 of Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU), 500 of plutonium) remain stored around the world, much of it still vulnerable to theft… A terrorist group would not need much fissile material to make a nuclear bomb–about enough HEU to fill a 2kg bag of sugar.”

A National Interest examination   warns “As North Korea’s economic position worsens, the risk that it sells its nuclear weapons technology grows… Over the years North Korea has created a web of foreign connections to peddle its missiles and components. As talks on denuclearization remain non-existent and foreign sanctions against the regime tighten, there are startling concerns that a cash-strapped Pyongyang may resort to dealing with its finances through the black-market with terrorist groups or organized crime syndicates.”

Iran, too, must be taken into consideration. While it has not yet constructed an actual nuclear bomb, its’ possession of nuclear materials, as well as its intimate ties with (and support for) terrorist organizations is disturbing. A Brookings review details how  “Iran’s leaders have used terrorism since they took power in 1979. Over 35 years later, Iran continues to use terrorism and to work with an array of violent substate groups that use terrorism among other tactics.”
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According to NATO, “There is a very real – but not yet fully identified risk – of foreign fighters in ISIL’s ranks using chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) materials as “weapons of terror” against the West… Hundreds of foreign fighters, some with solid academic and educational backgrounds and intellectual knowledge, have joined the cause and continue to do so every day. Furthermore ISIL’s success is based on an effective media strategy of looking at the utmost possible “news effect” of their attacks. Together with their access to high levels of funding, these three elements bear the real risk of the group turning into practice what up to now has been largely a theoretical possibility: to actually employ weapons of mass destruction or CBRN material in terrorist attacks.

“We might thus soon enter a stage of chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) terrorism, never before imaginable. Worrying reports confirm that ISIL has gained (at least temporarily) access to former chemical weapons storage sites in Iraq. They might soon do so in Libya. They allegedly used toxic chemicals in the fighting around Kobane. Even more worrying, there are press reports about nuclear material from Iraqi scientific institutes having been seized by ISIL. This demonstrates that while no full scale plots have been unveiled so far, our governments need to be on alert. Generating improved military and civil prevention and response capabilities should be a high priority and should not fall victim to limited budgets in times of economic crisis…

“Most of the declared chemical weapons (CW) material has been removed from Syria in the past few months and destroyed. However, there are indications that some material still remains in the country and is potentially accessible to ISIL. In addition, the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) suggested that chemical material not qualifying as CW and not subject to being declared under the CW convention, such as chlorine, has actually been used by the Assad regime in the fight against the Syrian opposition. Some press reports indicate that ISIL might have done the same. Even more worrying, ISIL actually controlled the so-called Al Muthanna site in Iraq for some months during 2014. At this site, according to UN reports, bunkers from the past Iraqi CW programme contained “2,000 empty artillery shells contaminated with mustard agents, 605 one tonne mustard containers with residues and heavily contaminated construction material.”

The Report concludes tomorrow.

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Why Did Russia Boycott the Nuclear Summit?

Russia’s absence from the Washington Nuclear Summit has raised eyebrows across the planet.

The Hans India newspaper  reported:

“The absence of Vladimir Putin at the Nuclear Security Summit creates a chill between Moscow and Washington…Barack Obama’s administration described this move as ‘self-isolation.”

The meeting was the largest of its kind since 1945, featuring 52 national delegations, including numerous world leaders, and four international agencies. According to the White House , “Not since 1945 has a U.S. President hosted a gathering of so many Heads of State and Government.”

The issue was one which directly affects the safety of civilian populations across the globe, and Russia in particular, due to its history of victimization at the hands of extremists. The goal of the gathering was to keep terrorists and criminals from getting nuclear weapons and material. According to the U.S. Government,

“Over 2000 tons of plutonium and highly enriched uranium exist in dozens of countries with a variety of peaceful as well as military uses. There have been 18 documented cases of theft or loss of highly enriched uranium or plutonium, and perhaps others not yet discovered. We know that al-Qa’ida, and possibly other terrorist or criminal groups, are seeking nuclear weapons –as well as the materials and expertise needed to make them. The consequences of a nuclear detonation, or even an attempted detonation, perpetrated by a terrorist or criminal group anywhere in the world would be devastating. Any country could be a target, and all countries would feel the effects.”

Unlike a host of other contentious issues, it would appear that the prevention of the acquisition of nuclear materials by violent non-state actors would be of unanimous interests to every government. Why did Moscow choose to not attend?

commander cialis It is one of the most effective erectiledysfucntion cures which men can get. A good family counseling finds out the different role each member of the family plays that contributed to certain stress, conflicts and dissatisfaction viagra buy germany in other family members and even their close friends. Pause viagra ordination stimulating for about 30-60 seconds and resume once you feel that you have gained control. This tadalafil for women empowers an erection as a common piece of incitement. In an interview with the news source Russia Direct  Russia’s Permanent Representative to the International Organizations in Vienna, Ambassador Vladimir Voronkov noted that Moscow had already attended several prior meetings, including gatherings in Washington in 2010, Seoul in 2012, and the Hague in 2014. Voronkov noted, “even before those meetings, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had consistently worked to attain this goal. However, for a long time, member states had a heated debate about whether nuclear security is part of the IAEA’s portfolio, since this term is absent from the Statute of the IAEA. Some developing nations considered any attempts to approach nuclear security within the context of the IAEA as an attempt to limit their access to the benefits of nuclear energy. One can hear statements to this effect till this day, but they have become much quieter.”

The authoritative Jamestown Foundation notes: “Russia’s absence from the nuclear summit in Washington, DC, last week was entirely predictable and yet baffling…The Kremlin was irked by the description of its behavior by US officials as “self-isolation” but could not invent a convincing explanation for why it was boycotting the high-profile event attended by more than 50 world leaders (Kommersant, March 30). The official statements emphasized the “deficit of cooperation” in the US-organized summit, and Putin perhaps believes that Russia should have been accorded some entitled special status by virtue of being the world’s second-largest nuclear power, on par with the US. Alexei Arbatov, one of the leading Russian experts in nuclear arms control, argues that the demonstrative refusal to partake betrays a fear in the Kremlin of showing any weakness, which overrides any obvious interest in enhancing Russia’s and the world’s nuclear security (Carnegie.ru, March 30).”

The results of the Summit were listed in the closing communiqué:

“The threat of nuclear and radiological terrorism remains one of the greatest challenges to international security, and the threat is constantly evolving…We reaffirm our commitment to our shared goals of nuclear disarmament, nuclear non-proliferation and peaceful use of nuclear energy.  We also reaffirm that measures to strengthen nuclear security will not hamper the rights of States to develop and use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.  We reaffirm the fundamental responsibility of States, in accordance with their respective obligations, to maintain at all times effective security of all nuclear and other radioactive material, including nuclear materials used in nuclear weapons, and nuclear facilities under their control.

“…We commit to fostering a peaceful and stable international environment by reducing the threat of nuclear terrorism and strengthening nuclear security.

“…we pledge that our countries will continue to make nuclear security an enduring priority.  We, as leaders, are conscious of our responsibility…

“We reaffirm the essential responsibility and the central role of the International Atomic Energy Agency in strengthening the global nuclear security architecture and in developing international guidance, and its leading role in facilitating and coordinating nuclear security activities among international organizations and initiatives and supporting the efforts of States to fulfill their nuclear security responsibilities.  We welcome and support the Agency in convening regular high-level international conferences, such as the December 2016 international conference on nuclear security including its Ministerial segment, to maintain political momentum and continue to raise awareness of nuclear security among all stakeholders… we resolve to implement the …Action Plans, in support of the international organizations and initiatives to which we respectively belong (the United Nations, the International Atomic Energy Agency, INTERPOL, the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism, and the Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction), to be carried out on a voluntary basis and consistent with national laws and respective international obligations.”

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Nuclear terrorism concerns

Nuclear terrorism remains a serious concern, according to Yukiya Amano, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General. Amano’s warnings appear to contradict President Obama’s State of the Union comments that the “shadow of the crisis of terrorism has passed.”

Iran’s atomic program also was singled out as a problem, as was North Korea’s nuclear efforts in the Director-General’s comments in Jakarta, Indonesia on Monday.

“I remain seriously concerned about North Korea’s nuclear programme. Agency inspectors were required to leave the country in 2009, so our knowledge of developments there is limited. But we are maintaining our readiness to play an essential role in verifying the country’s nuclear programme.

As far as Iran is concerned, the Agency is able to verify the non-diversion of nuclear material declared to us by Iran under its Safeguards Agreement. But we are not in a position to provide credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran, and therefore to conclude that all nuclear material in Iran is in peaceful activities.
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2015 will be a significant year for the Iran nuclear issue. The future will depend very much on the outcome of the negotiations between the so-called E3+3 countries – China, France, Germany, Russia, Britain and the United States – and Iran.”

In addressing the Iran nuclear issue, two things are important. First, with the cooperation of Iran, the Agency needs to clarify issues with possible military dimensions to the satisfaction of Member States. Also, Iran needs to implement the additional protocol so that the Agency can provide credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran.”

 Information about the IAEA data base can be found at: IAEA INCIDENT AND TRAFFICKING DATABASE (ITDB)