Tag: North Korea

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China Must Take Responsibility for North Korea’s Nukes

There is a great deal of debate on how to respond to North Korea’s ongoing nuclear weapons and ICBM development.  The irrationality and belligerent attitude of the “Hermit Kingdoms’” leadership make the issue all the more urgent.

The Congressional newspaper The Hill reports that “Senators from both parties are pushing for stronger sanctions against North Korea after the country said it detonated a hydrogen bomb.”

The problem with almost all the proposed responses is that they are aimed at the wrong target, or at the very least, a target that is beyond reasoning with.

A glance at the history of arms control deals with Pyongyang indicates that the North Koreans will only use negotiations as a bargaining chip to gain concessions, then violate the terms of any agreement after getting what they want. China is the only nation with any real influence in the matter, and it has absolutely no intention of using its position to stop the weapons program.

The Arms Control Organization notes that  “For years, the United States and the international community have tried to negotiate an end to North Korea’s nuclear and missile development and its export of ballistic missile technology…The United States has pursued a variety of policy responses to the proliferation challenges posed by North Korea, including military cooperation with U.S. allies in the region, wide-ranging sanctions, and non-proliferation mechanisms such as export controls.

“The United States also engaged in two major diplomatic initiatives in which North Korea [agreed] to abandon its nuclear weapons efforts in return for aid. In 1994, faced with North Korea’s announced intent to withdraw from the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), which requires non-nuclear weapon states to forswear the development and acquisition of nuclear weapons, the United States and North Korea signed the Agreed Framework. Under this agreement, Pyongyang committed to freezing its illicit plutonium weapons program in exchange for aid.

“Following the collapse of this agreement in 2002, North Korea claimed that it had withdrawn from the NPT in January 2003 and once again began operating its nuclear facilities.

“The second major diplomatic effort [was] the Six-Party Talks initiated in August of 2003 which involved China, Japan, North Korea, Russia, South Korea, and the United States. In between periods of stalemate and crisis, those talks arrived at critical breakthroughs in 2005, when North Korea pledged to abandon ‘all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs’ and return to the NPT, and in 2007, when the parties agreed on a series of steps to implement that 2005 agreement. Those talks, however, broke down in 2009 following disagreements over verification and an internationally condemned North Korea rocket launch. Pyongyang has since stated that it would never return to the talks and is no longer bound by their agreements. The other five parties state that they remain committed to the talks, and have called for Pyongyang to recommit to its 2005 denuclearization pledge.”
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Writing in Space Daily, Giles Hewitt reports that “There is room to increase pressure by imposing the sort of extensive economic sanctions that helped bring Iran to the negotiating table over its nuclear programme. But to be effective, these would impact Chinese companies and financial institutions that account for the lion’s share of North Korea’s overseas business. China is likely to balk at any such move and Washington would be wary of pushing Beijing at an already sensitive time for relations between the two powers.” [Hewitt declines to note that the Iran deal fails to forbid Tehran from eventually getting atomic weapons, and that Iran has already violated portions of the agreement]… China, meanwhile, is unlikely to back any moves that could genuinely destabilise the regime of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un, given its overriding fear of a reunified, US-allied Korea directly on its border.

‘China, no matter how strong the language it uses in its criticism on the North, will not join any Security Council punishment that may have a real impact on the North’s regime,’ said South Korea’s former national Security Adviser, Chun Young-Woo.’And North Korea knows that,’ he added.”

Ben Dooley, also writing in Space Daily, believes “China is unlikely to take strong action in response to North Korea’s claimed test of a hydrogen bomb, according to experts who say Beijing prefers the devil it knows to the uncertainty that could follow a confrontation. And whether Pyongyang would even listen is highly questionable, they say… Beijing’s support for Pyongyang gives it particular influence over the hermit kingdom.

“But that is ever less true, experts say… ‘China’s influence on North Korea is becoming weaker and weaker, the main issue is that the North’s leadership do not listen, they are very stubborn’, said Zhu Feng, an expert on international relations. Pyongyang, he added, may believe it can ‘exploit’ its relationship with its main diplomatic protector while Beijing is distracted by tensions with other neighbours and the US in the South China Sea. Beijing — which regularly calls for calm on the Korean peninsula — has become increasingly frustrated with its neighbour’s antics, a feeling undoubtedly exacerbated by its fourth nuclear test.”

Government officials, arms control experts and many pundits are too eager to give a pass to China in their belief that Beijing has no influence.  The facts clearly say otherwise. China could literally bankrupt and starve North Korea with ease, and that gives Beijing enormous influence. Claims that the Chinese leadership fears a unified Korea are accurate, but if that is what keeps Beijing from urging the North from stopping its nuclear program, that could be addressed by using its enormous influence to threaten internal regime change within the North’s Communist Party.

North Korea’s nuclear program helps China. First, it detracts from Beijing’s own enormous strategic weapons development program. Second, it makes China a wanted partner in arms control negotiations in the region. The third reason is speculative, but must nevertheless be carefully considered. If Beijing eventually chooses to damage Japan, the Philippines, or even the United States, a nuclear attack that comes from North Korea would achieve that objective while giving Beijing a way of avoiding blame—and retaliation.

While diplomatic attempts to halt Pyongyang’s atomic program should continue, the US must also strengthen missile defenses for itself and its allies. Further, Washington should inform China that any use of nuclear weapons by North Korea against America or its allies will be construed as an act encouraged, supported, and aided by Beijing.

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North Korea’s growing nuclear threat

North Korea’s bluster and threats are becoming more serious. Armed with a military that is approaching a serious capability to launch nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles, the belligerence and irrationality of its leadership can no longer be safely ignored. The hope that China would restrain Pyongyang’s atomic weapons development proved unfounded.

Yesterday, Mr. Obama met with South Korean President Pak. The U.S. President commended both her “and the people of South Korea for the resolve … displayed this summer following North Korea’s reckless actions in the DMZ …” President Pak responded by noting that “ with a sense of urgency and firm commitment, we have agreed to strengthen diplomatic efforts to resolve the North Korean nuclear problem.  On the basis of Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperation, we will strengthen coordination among the other five parties, while Korea and the United States will deepen consultations with other countries, including China.”

North Korea is estimated to have 20 nuclear weapons, double prior estimates. In addition to concerns about its own willingness to use those weapons, the potential of proliferation is quite high. It is known that North Korea has shared advanced military technology with Iran, and the possibility that it would provide a nuclear device to terrorist groups exists.

According to the Pentagon “North Korea and its unpredictable leader are U.S. Pacific Command’s biggest worries,” Navy Adm. Harry Harris Jr. stated on October 10. Harris has commanded U.S. Pacific Command since May. “At some point in the future, [as it develops its capability], North Korea will present a very real threat to Hawaii and the rest of the United States.”

Provocation by North Korea is a key reason why Harris welcomes Japan’s decision to play a greater role in regional security. He said he will do all he can to look for ways for South Korea, Japan and the United States to collaborate.

In a statement reported in the Telegraph, the North Korean Atomic Energy Institute states that it is prepared to utilize “nuclear weapons any time” in response to American activity it perceives as threatening. The Telegraph notes that Atomic Energy Institute officials believe “Pyongyang has improved its nuclear weapons capability by steadily improving the levels of nuclear weapons … in quality and quantity.”
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The latest Nuclear Threat Initiative organization report summarizes the nation’s mature programs both for nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction: North Korea “has an active nuclear weapons program and tested nuclear explosive devices in 2006, 2009, and 2013. It is also capable of enriching uranium and producing weapons-grade plutonium. North Korea deploys short- and medium-range ballistic missiles and successfully launched a long-range rocket in 2012. North Korea is also believed to possess biological and chemical weapons programs.

“Pyongyang unilaterally withdrew from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in January 2003 and is not a party to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) or a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). The DPRK is not a party to the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), and is believed to possess a large chemical weapons program. North Korea is a party to the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) and Geneva Protocol, but is suspected of maintaining an offensive biological weapons program in defiance of that treaty.”

North Korea’s armed might is far more than just its nuclear muscle. The regime, according to Globalfirepower has a large army with 4,200 tanks, 4,100 other armored fighting vehicles, 2,250 self-propelled guns, 4,300 pieces of towed artillery, and 2,400 multiple launch rocket systems. Its air force boasts 940 planes, its navy, 1,061 vessels.

Besides its atomic prowess, the National Interest emphasizes its vast artillery capabilities:

“North Korea has a prodigious amount of artillery, especially long-range artillery pieces. One of the major concerns about a North-South war is that the North would be able to unleash a devastating artillery barrage on the South Korean capital of Seoul. Such an attack, by thousands of artillery pieces on a population of 24,000,000 is widely believed to be capable of killing hundreds of thousands of civilians and “flattening” Seoul in the span of half an hour.”

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Will there be a new Korean War?

Will a new war soon begin on the Korean peninsula, or is the latest series of threats from Pyongyang just another of Kim Jong-un’s blusters?

The South Korean Ministry of National Defense  announced on Thursday that North Korea shot two artillery projectiles south of the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) at 3:53 p.m. and again at 4:12 p.m. that day. Civilians in the region have been evacuated.

The Ministry said in a statement during an evening briefing that, “the South Korean military fired dozens of rounds of 155mm shells toward the believed area from where the shells were launched as a warning.”

No casualties have been reported on either side.

The exchange of fire was precipitated by the killing of two South Korean soldiers by a land mine apparently planted by North Korea. The land mines were planted on a regular patrol route, according to South Korean, American, and United Nations officials. In response, South Korea began blasting statements over powerful loudspeakers, which North Korea objected to, demanding a cessation of the comments and targeting the loudspeakers with artillery.

According to the Seoul government, “The South Korean military has raised its vigilance to the highest level and has been closely watching the movement of the North Korean military, ready to respond strongly and decisively to any further provocations from the North.”

Before the statement, North Korea, which possesses nuclear weapons and significant missile capabilities, threatened the South in a message sent from its Central Military Commission at around 5 p.m. and through a radio broadcast to military units in the Yellow Sea. In the message, the North said that it would, “Take strong military action unless the South stops border propaganda broadcasts and dismantles broadcast facilities within 48 hours from 5 p.m. today.”

Yesterday, according to Asia One News,   “North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un ordered his frontline troops onto a war-footing from Friday ….North Korea followed up with an ultimatum sent via military hotline that gave the South 48 hours to dismantle loudspeakers blasting propaganda messages across the border or face further military action. The ultimatum expires at Saturday, 5:00pm…The South’s defence ministry dismissed the threat and said the broadcasts would continue.”
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The two governments have exchanged fire in the past, in 2010 and 2014.

The BBC  reports that North Korean news sources are stating that the Pyongyang government has declared a “semi-state of war” at an emergency meeting late Thursday. CBS news reports  that “A North Korean military official said on Friday that senior party and defense officials led by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met Thursday night and “reviewed and approved the final attack operation.”

Last October, the Commander of U.S. forces in Korea, General Curtis Scapaorroti described  the North Korean regime of Kim Jong Un as one that “remains in control of an isolated, authoritative regime that’s willing to use violence and threats of violence to advance its interests, gain recognition as a world power, and secure the regime’s survival.” Spacedaily.com has reported that North Korea has constructed a test facility at the Sinpo South Shipyard, apparently intended to develop sea-based ballistic missiles.  The capability could facilitate either a surprise nuclear strike, an EMP attack, or provide the regime with a means to retaliate in the event a pre-emptive strike occurs to take out the country’s nuclear assets.

According to General Curtis Scapaorroti, “In recent years, North Korea has focused on development of asymmetric capabilities. These capabilities include several hundred ballistic missiles, one of the world’s largest chemical weapons stockpiles, a biological weapons research program, and the world’s largest special operations force, as well as an active cyber-warfare capability.”   The Pyongyang government has, in violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions, carried out three nuclear tests and continues an active ballistic missile development program.

It should be remembered that if the full sequester cuts are carried out by Washington, the United States Army will be smaller than its North Korean counterpart by the end of 2015.

Overall, North Korea possesses the 4th largest military in the world, and About 70-75% of its ground forces and 50% of its air and naval assets are within 60 miles of the DMZ.

Two key factors have assisted North Korea’s rise as a military power.  Its close relationship with China renders international pressure relatively ineffective, as Beijing’s vast economic strength can offset global actions.  The other challenge is the sharply diminished state of American military power, particularly its Navy, which is at its lowest level since World War One.

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Je Sois Charlie

The recent terrorist attack on a Parisian satirical newspaper, the North Korean hacking of Sony Pictures, and Washington’s political debates over campaign speech, media activities, and internet regulations have a common thread. They all   constitute an assault on the First Amendment.

The readiness of far too many to surrender to the totalitarian demands of Jihadists have only encouraged actions such as that levied against France’s Charlie Hebdo,   a humorous journal.

Many media outlets which do not display any second thoughts about critical portrayals of Christianity, Judaism, or other religions balk at any negative commentary about Islam, despite the prevalence of Jihadists who have hijacked much of that faith for their own warped goals.  The violent attacks in Paris and elsewhere by terrorists, as well as pressure from “political correctness” vigilantes in the media and academia give rise to this culture of submission.

Astoundingly, many media outlets, in the aftermath of the Charlie Hebdo attack, concentrated on warning against a “backlash” instead of devoting more column space to the increasingly frail state of free speech. Far too few share the courage of that publication’s Stephanie Chardonnier, who in 2012 proclaimed that she would “rather die standing than live on my knees.”

For most Americans, the sacrosanct status of free speech has frequently been given no more daily attention than the existence of oxygen.  Certainly, it has been understood that the lack of that right in many nations around the world is an unfortunate reality, but it was generally assumed that didn’t affect U.S. citizens in any direct manner.

That assumption can no longer be considered correct, if, indeed, it ever had any validity.  Dictators and extremists across the planet realize that the First Amendment is a threat to their rule, and are actively taking steps against it. In the Internet age, they comprehend, freedom of speech originating in one venue cannot be contained.
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Examples abound. It is highly unlikely that the Sony movie portraying Kim Jong-un in a satirical manner would ever be shown within the “Hermit Kingdom’s” borders. But the mere existence of it elsewhere was viewed as a threat by Pyongyang’s leadership. This is not the first time that overseas pressure has affected U.S. filmmakers.  The re-make of the cult classic, “Red Dawn,”    which originally featured a storyline of a Chinese invasion of America, was amended to not offend Beijing.

Many universities have actively restricted the rights of students who publicly state positions that campus officials disagree with.

In 2014, Senator Charles Schumer introduced legislation  in the U.S. Senate to limit the First Amendment to allow greater control of spending during campaigns.  The measure, supported by 43 Democrats and opposed by all Republicans, was defeated, but the message was chilling: the First Amendment is no longer sacrosanct.

Free speech advocates have been equally disturbed by several White House regulatory actions.  The FCC’s attempt to place “monitors”   in newsrooms was knocked down, but not permanently ruled out, following vehement public objections.

This reduced devotion to free speech has not gone unnoticed by forces of repression across the globe. Like predators closing in on weakened prey, they are emboldened to attack, and will continue to expand their aggression until governments, universities, and the press regain their courage and forcefully push back against those who would eliminate free speech.

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U.S. unprepared for cyber attack

According to Dr. Daniel Goure, “The United States is woefully unprepared to deal with the inevitability of a major cyber attack.”

Writing for the Lexington Institute,  Dr. Goure notes that hacks of companies such as Sony, Home Depot, and Target are mere warnings of much greater dangers to come.

The Department of Homeland Security  emphasizes that “Our daily life, economic vitality, and national security depend on a stable, safe, and resilient cyberspace. We rely on this vast array of networks to communicate and travel, power our homes, run our economy, and provide government services. Yet cyber intrusions and attacks have increased dramatically over the last decade, exposing sensitive personal and business information, disrupting critical operations, and imposing high costs on the economy.”
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According to the Department of Defense  citing a November 29 discussion, Navy Adm. James G. Stavridis said “cybersecurity is a priority within the [NATO] alliance, and member nations are taking steps to both improve distribution of intelligence and protect its networks…Cyber attacks have occurred, and the threat is growing. The attacks are often tough to attribute, can cause immense damage and can be launched by nations, terrorists, criminal gangs or individuals.”

Despite the widespread criticism of the recent Sony hack, North Korea’s government has not been shunned by several nations. Vladimir Putin invited Kim Jong-un to Moscow to join in next year’s 70th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s role in the defeat of Nazi Germany.

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What North Korea’s Sony attack reveals

The news that North Korea attacked Sony Pictures in retaliation for a low brow comedy mocking its leader, Kim Jong-un, and that the corporation essentially gave in, is indicative of how far America’s international credibility has descended. The fact that the movie studio surrendered speaks volumes about the utter lack of integrity of those who set the cultural climate.

The reasons arise both from Washington’s actual reduction in military strength, as well as in the diminished will to use those forces that remain. It is not a coincidence that this incident occurred in a year which saw the withdrawal of American tanks in Europe, presidential interest in a unilateral reduction in the U.S. atomic arsenal, a weakening of sanctions on Iran, a lack of any significant response to Russia’s resumption of cold war nuclear patrols off the coasts of North America, various acts of intimidation against Europe by Moscow, and the rapid increase in the prowess of the Chinese navy.

North Korea, which possesses nuclear weapons, is moving rapidly to perfect the technology to place them on ICBMs capable of striking the American mainland.

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The entire debate over the appropriate level of western military strength has an air of unreality to it. Those, like the President and other progressives, including (or especially) those in the entertainment industry (well known for its leftist leanings) appear to discount the need for a force sufficient to deter aggression, and they also appear to lack the fortitude to use military assets even if they were adequate.

To put in terms the White House might understand, it’s the same concept as rejecting the need for medical insurance because you don’t believe in the existence of disease.

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North Korea rejects dialogue on human rights, nuclear weapons

In an announcement first reported by Spacewar.com, the North Korean Foreign Ministry has ruled out any dialogue concerning either human rights or its nuclear program.

The pronouncement came in anticipation of the imminent presentation by the European Union and Japan to the United Nations General Assembly describing horrific abuses by the Pyongyang regime, including numerous accounts of “extermination, murder, enslavement, torture, imprisonment, rape, forced abortions and other sexual enslavement.”

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The issue has become more urgent following reports that the regime has, according to a spacedaily.com report, constructed a test facility at the Sinpo South Shipyard, apparently intended to develop sea-based ballistic missiles.  The capability could facilitate either a surprise nuclear strike, an EMP attack, or provide the regime with a means to retaliate in the event a pre-emptive strike occurs to take out the country’s nuclear assets.

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AMERICAN DISINTEGRATION, PART 4: THE U.S. MILITARY

Since 2009, American spending on defense has been reduced as a percent of GDP,  from 4.6 in 2009 to 3.8 in 2013. Russia spends 17.5 percent of GDP on defense, a figure that will increase to 21% by 2017.  China has increased its military budget at a pace faster than either the U.S. or the U.S.S.R. did at the height of the Cold War.

In addition to threats from other nations, the rising danger from terrorism requires a robust defense.  ISIS, for example, is well funded and some believe it is pursuing the acquisition of a nuclear weapons capability.

Despite the $700 billion spent on the President’s “Stimulus” package, a glaring defense vulnerability in the U.S. homeland—the need to protect the national electrical grid from an electro-magnetic pulse attack which would cripple the U.S. for decades—remains un-addressed and unfunded.

Sharp reductions in the defense budget are the most significant of the efforts to engage in questionable, short-term goals at the expense of the nation’s future. In an effort to fund massive increases in social spending, the military has suffered budget cuts at a time when the world has grown increasingly dangerous.

It is important to put this into context. By 2008, the U.S. military had already been sharply reduced.  From its high point in the last decade of the 20th century, the Navy had slipped from 600 ships to 284. The Air Force from 37 fighter commands to 20, and the Army from 17 divisions to 10.  Much of the remaining equipment was aged and worn from overuse in various wars.  The U.S. nuclear arsenal was rapidly becoming obsolete. America was dependent on Russia for certain rocket engines, and on China for certain other key ingredients in our weapons.

Significant new threats, such as cyber warfare, have emerged even as Washington has reduced defense spending.

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China has attained a level of military sophistication that equals and in some areas surpasses America’s.

Most worrisome, China and Russia have established a de-facto alliance aimed at the United States. Both nations, along with Iran, have established ties with Latin American and Caribbean states. Both assist client states, including Iran and North Korea, that individually and collectively present a significant danger to the U.S. and its allies.

Even in the face of these threats, the President continues to advocate unilateral reductions in the American nuclear arsenal and continues to oppose a viable anti-ballistic missile system to defend the homeland from a nuclear attack.

The disintegration of American military supremacy returns the planet to a state of affairs that existed before the Second World War, with probable consequences that are deeply disturbing. Russia now occupies the role of Nazi Germany, casting an envious eye on the territory of other nations.  Vladimir Putin has even adopted some of the language of the Third Reich, including using an excuse of protecting Russian ethnic groups outside of his nation’s borders as an excuse to threaten his neighbors.  China serves as the 21st Century version of imperial Japan, seeking to establish hegemony in Asia and beyond.

Those favoring cuts to defense note that the U.S. spends more than its adversaries. That must be tempered by the large hidden spending in nations without a free press, and in the fact that a significant portion of the U.S. defense budget goes to expenses other countries don’t include in their military spending figures.  It also fails to include the sobering realization that from Moscow to Beijing, Tehran to Pyongyang, and in terrorist camps throughout the world, it is the United States that is the main target.

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Will foreign aid help or harm the Palestinians?

Secretary of State John Kerry has announced  $212 million in immediate assistance to the Palestinian people imperiled by the recent fighting in Gaza.  Those funds, combined with dollars previously committed in 2014, add up to over $400 million this year alone.

All those taxpayer monies may not bring peace and stability to the region, or a true mitigation of the suffering of the Palestinian people who have been victimized not by war or Israel, but by the corruption and brutality of corrupt forces within their own ranks.

It is instructive to look at the aid given to North Korea. According to the Congressional Research Service, (CRS)  between 1995 and 2008, the United States provided North Korea with over $1.3 billion in assistance: slightly more than 50% for food aid and about 40% for energy assistance. The problem was not solved. According to CRS,

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In the areas populated by Palestinians, the influence of Hamas will diminish the value and effectiveness of any foreign assistance. Its charter goal is not the safety and prosperity of the Palestinian people; it is the destruction of Israel. Historically, international assistance funds directed towards the Palestinian people have been diverted to inappropriate purposes. Former PLO leader Yasser Arafat stole well over a billion dollars despite the dire needs of his people.

In the Palestinian territories, as well as in North Korea, the provision of foreign assistance without direct control of the use of those funds serves more to keep illegitimate interests in power than in helping the people.

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Legitimate Questions About Obama’s Foreign Policy are not “Political.”

Iran has vocally dismissed any potential of living up to the promises it made regarding its nuclear weapons program. Russia has stolen territory from Ukraine, moved tactical nuclear missiles to its European border, and established military ties with Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua. China, too, has established military ties in Latin America, openly threatens its Asian neighbors, steals offshore assets from the Philippines, attacks Vietnamese ships, and, lest we forget, continues to occupy Tibet. Both Moscow and Beijing continue to dramatically build up their militaries to levels far higher than what they possessed during the Cold War. Al Qaeda has expanded its influence in the Middle East, and grows stronger in Africa. North Korea has developed the capacity to launch a nuclear-armed missile at the United States, and the resulting EMP blast could literally destroy all modern infrastructure in the contiguous 48 states.

In reply, the President, in his West Point speech, called for a less military-centric U.S. foreign policy, and continues to cut military funding. He does, however, continue to defend his intervention in Libya and calls for more US assistance to Syrian rebels, two moves that have absolutely nothing to do with American interests or national security.

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An elected leader in a free nation always owes an explanation of his actions and goals to the citizenry, particularly when those actions have resulted in dramatic setbacks for the national interests. Mr. Obama and his supporters continue to allege that those very legitimate questions are mere political bickering. They are not.