murder rate – USA Gov Policy

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government’s review of illegal aliens and the rise in violent crime concludes today.

Breitbart believes that the mainstream media is “working overtime to keep the American public and the American voters in the dark on the scope of illegal alien crime…Let’s look at a few numbers. You haven’t seen them in the New York Times, Atlanta Constitution, or the Miami Herald, nor have they been featured on NBC Nightly news or CNN. So, the average American is blissfully unaware of them.

Between 2008 and 2014, 40% of all murder convictions in Florida were criminal aliens. In New York it was 34% and Arizona 17.8%.
During those years, criminal aliens accounted for 38% of all murder convictions in the five states of California, Texas, Arizona, Florida and New York, while illegal aliens constitute only 5.6% of the total population in those states.
That 38% represents 7,085 murders out of the total of 18,643.”

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That 5.6% figure for the average illegal alien population in those five states comes from US Census estimates. We know the real number is double that official estimate. Yet, even if it is 11%, it is still shameful that the percentage of murders by criminal aliens is more than triple the illegal population in those states. Those astounding numbers were compiled by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) using official Department of Justice data on criminal aliens in the nation’s correctional system. The numbers were the basis for a presentation at a recent New Hampshire conference sponsored by the highly respected Center for Security Policy….[One example] The Texas Department of Public Safety reports that between 2008 and 2014, 35% of all murder convictions were illegal aliens—averaging 472 murders each year from 2004 to 2008.

Peter Kirsanow, writing in National Review, writes: “ Using data from the Government Accountability Office (GAO), state prison systems, and Pew, we were able to compare rates of major offenses in states with sizeable populations of illegal aliens. For example: Arizona: Approximately 240 illegal aliens were imprisoned for homicide-related offenses. This means approximately 68.57 illegal aliens were imprisoned for homicide offenses per 100,000 illegal aliens in Arizona, whereas 54.06 citizens and legal residents were imprisoned for homicide-related offenses per 100,000 citizens and legal residents in Arizona. California: Approximately 2,430 illegal aliens were imprisoned for homicide-related offenses. This means approximately 97.2 illegal aliens were imprisoned for homicide and related offenses per 100,000 illegal aliens in California, whereas 74.1 citizens and legal residents were imprisoned for homicide and related offenses per 100,000 citizens and legal residents. Florida: Approximately 480 illegal aliens were imprisoned for homicide-related offenses. This means approximately 54.85 illegal aliens were imprisoned for murder and manslaughter per 100,000 illegal aliens in Florida, whereas approximately 67.8 legal residents were imprisoned for murder and manslaughter per 100,000 legal residents. New York: Approximately 1,350 illegal aliens were imprisoned for homicide-related offenses. This means approximately 168.75 illegal aliens were imprisoned for murder and related offenses per 100,000 illegal aliens in the state, whereas approximately 48.12 legal residents were imprisoned for murder and related offenses per 100,000 legal residents.”

In 2015, the Daily Caller noted that “President Obama unleashed a nation-wide crime wave when he directed his deputies to release 36,007 foreign criminals back into Americans neighborhoods in 2013, instead of repatriating the criminals…”

WND notes that “Sanctuary Cities,” which help shield illegals from what little enforcement exists under the Obama Administration, exacerbate the problem:

“Laws in sanctuary cities help shield illegal immigrants from deportation, even after they’ve committed felonies. Investigative journalist Sharyl Attkisson with “Full Measure” found the problem of the U.S. as a sanctuary for crime is much larger and often understated by politicians and advocates with special interests at stake. Families of victims say politics and political correctness have forced their personal tragedies into the shadows, while shielding the criminals…U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, investigating the issue, noted, “You’ve got an administration that thinks more highly of their interests in protecting undocumented workers than there is enforcing the law, and in the process of making that decision, violating their constitutional oath to faithfully execute the laws of this country.”

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government begins a two part review of the role of illegal aliens in the recent increase in violent crime.

There is evidence that the Obama Administration’s decision not to deport illegal immigrants who have broken the law is responsible for a noteworthy portion of violent crime.

As the New York Analysis of Policy and Government recently noted, the sharp downturn in violent crime since the 1990’s has started to reverse itself. Violent crime and homicide increased by about 10% in 2015.

The Brennan Center found that murder in 2015 increased by about 14 percent, with just three cities — Baltimore, Chicago, and Washington, D.C. — responsible for half that increase. The Brennan Center also projects another 13.1% increase in 2016. “Nationally, the murder rate is projected to increase 31.5 percent from 2014 to 2016 …”

Despite the positions taken by those opposed to the Second Amendment, “loose” gun laws do not appear to be a factor. WND notes that that a “common denominator” of cities where murder rose by over 13% is that they impose strict gun control laws. It has been noted by a pro Second Amendment source that “More people were murdered in strict gun-control Chicago from 2001 to 2013 than the total number of U.S. military killed in Afghanistan since 2001 or killed in Iraq since 2003.”

One factor that should not be overlooked is the role of violent illegal immigrants. According to a United Nations study, “The global average homicide rate stands at 6.2 per 100,000 population, but Southern Africa and Central America have rates over four times higher than that (above 24 victims per 100,000 population), making them the sub-regions with the highest homicide rates on record, followed by South America, Middle Africa and the Caribbean.” The wave of illegal immigrants comes heavily from Central America.

The Congressional Research Service has found that Gang-related violence has been particularly acute in El Salvador, Honduras, and urban areas in Guatemala, contributing to some of the highest homicide rates in the world. Congress has maintained an interest in the effects of gang-related crime and violence on governance, citizen security, and investment in Central America. Congress has examined the role that gang-related violence has played in fueling mixed migration flows, which have included asylum seekers, by families and unaccompanied alien children (UAC) to the United States.

According to the FBI Mara Salvatrucha, or MS-13, continues to expand its influence in the United States. FBI investigations reveal that it is present in almost every state and continues to grow its membership, now targeting younger recruits more than ever before.

The 2015 report of the National Gang Intelligence Center notes that “Based on survey analysis and reporting from federal, state, local, and tribal law enforcement over the past two years, the NGIC provides the following assessments:

Approximately half of respondents report street gang membership and gangrelated crime increased in their jurisdictions. The most prevalent crimes street gangs commit are street-level drug trafficking, large-scale drug trafficking, assault, threats and intimidation, and robbery. Street gangs exhibit few indicators of decreasing membership or criminal activity. Neighborhood-based gangs remain the most significant threat, while national level street gangs have a moderate-to-high impact in approximately half of reporting jurisdictions.
Approximately one-third of jurisdictions report an increase in threats to law enforcement. The attacks that were carried out against law enforcement and judicial officials over the past two years were violent and brazen. However, the number of actual attacks against law enforcement remained relatively stable.
Over 68 percent of survey respondents indicate prison gang membership has increased over the past two years. The greatest threat of prison gangs lies in their nexus to street gangs and in their ability to corrupt prison officials. Corruption of prison staff threatens various prison systems by facilitating the smuggling practices of inmates. Respondents rate drugs, cell phones, and weapons as the contraband prison gangs most commonly smuggle. Prison gangs engage in a host of other crimes to further their criminal objectives. The most commonly reported crimes include smuggling of contraband, assault, racketeering, extortion, murder, robbery, witness intimidation, and prostitution. Prison gangs also exploit Freedom of Religion rights and rely on female counterparts to facilitate gang activity.
Larger OMGs have established new chapters and have attracted many new members. The surge in membership has incited clashes for geographic dominance, which has created higher levels of violence. OMGs continue to engage in all types of violent crimes to include: weapons possession, threats and intimidation, assault, arson, extortion, and drug trafficking. OMGs have a notorious reputation for their use of violence and often employ brute force to exact punishment on rival gangs and on their own members. OMGs mainly recruit motorcycle enthusiasts and members of the US biker community. Some larger OMGs require smaller motorcycle gangs or sport bike clubs to wear a support patch and demand monthly payments in exchange for the patch. OMGs rely on support clubs for recruitment purposes, financial support, and to counter rival gangs. Gangs continue to foster partnerships with MTCOs. Survey respondents identified more than 96 gangs involved in crossborder crimes. Sureños, Barrio Azteca, and Tango Blast rank as the top three most criminally active gangs along the US/Mexico Border, while the Sinaloa Cartel emerges as the MTCO with the most gang ties. Despite intelligence to support gang/ MTCO partnerships, the exact nature of these relationships remains unclear. Drug trafficking is the cross-border crime gangs most frequently commit.
Approximately 26 percent of jurisdictions and 44 percent of prison facilities report that gang members joined domestic extremist groups. A mutually beneficial arrangement, extremists use gangs to spread their doctrine, while gangs turn to extremists to increase membership and facilitate collaboration with other criminal organizations. Gangs also refer to extremist ideology to respond to perceived injustices and to enact social change.
Survey respondents indicate that over the past two years known or suspected gang members from over 100 jurisdictions have applied for positions or gained employment with the US military, law enforcement agencies, corrections facilities, and within the judiciary. Employment with the US military ranked as the most common, followed by corrections, law enforcement, and the judiciary.
Approximately 15 percent of respondents report that gangs in their jurisdiction engage in human trafficking. According to law enforcement reporting, gang involvement in sex trafficking has increased over the past two years. This is likely a significant underestimation, as sex trafficking is often underreported for two reasons: victims fail to report due to shame or fear; and misclassification of gang involved cases, where the offense is cited as prostitution, as opposed to sex trafficking. Gangs that partake in sex trafficking and prostitution crimes typically collaborate with other criminal organizations in order to maximize profit and evade detection from law enforcement.
Social media and other forms of technology play an essential role in the illicit activities of gang members. Gangs use a number of sites, applications, and platforms to recruit prospects, facilitate communication, target rivals, and to thwart law enforcement efforts. Over the past two years, gang members’ utilization of technology, social media in particular, has risen significantly, enabling gangs to more readily further their criminal objectives. Nearly all jurisdictions report gang member use of technology, most frequently citing Facebook, YouTube, Instagram, and Twitter. Technology is also playing an increasingly pivotal role in police investigations and anti-gang efforts. Over 54 percent of agencies report integrating social media into their gang investigations within the past two years.”

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The report concludes tomorrow.

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.