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Jobs Report Reflects Decline of Middle Class

The December jobs report reflects the left’s disenfranchisement of the American middle class, a result of Mr. Obama’s placing what should be the most important segment of the U.S. population into a far lesser priority. There have been massive increases in programs for the poor, which have failed to alleviate poverty, and the rich have fared well. Fortune Magazine  described the outcome of Obama’s policies: “the über rich have experienced impressive real income growth, while the bottom 99% has seen almost none.”

The Minnesota Post  notes that “corporate profits skyrocketed during the Obama years, but the poverty rate didn’t decline and actually inched upward, both of which probably confound simple notions of whose side Obama is on.”

The practical expression of a presidential administration’s political goals and views is expressed in its budgetary and economic decisions, which are also the means with which an administration rewards friends and punishes the opposition. With the imminent conclusion of the Obama tenure, it is evident that the middle class, which was the portion of the electorate that least supported the current White House or its supporters in the hard left of the Democrat Party, has had a rough eight years.

As the New York Analysis of Policy and Government has noted, Data from The Pew Research Center reported “The American middle class is losing ground in metropolitan areas across the country, affecting communities from Boston to Seattle and from Dallas to Milwaukee. From 2000 to 2014 the share of adults living in middle-income households fell in 203 of the 229 U.S. metropolitan areas examined in a new Pew Research Center analysis of government data. The decrease in the middle-class share was often substantial, measuring 6 percentage points or more in 53 metropolitan areas, compared with a 4-point drop nationally. The shrinking of the middle class at the national level, to the point where it may no longer be the economic majority in the U.S., was documented in an earlier analysis by the Pew Research Center. The changes at the metropolitan level…demonstrate that the national trend is the result of widespread declines in localities all around the country.”

The Stratfor intelligence organization concurs.: “The threat to the United States is the persistent decline in the middle class’ standard of living, a problem that is reshaping the social order that has been in place since World War II and that, if it continues, poses a threat to American power… In the 1950s and 1960s, the median income allowed you to live with a single earner — normally the husband, with the wife typically working as homemaker — and roughly three children. It permitted the purchase of modest tract housing, one late model car and an older one. It allowed a driving vacation somewhere and, with care, some savings as well…  Government programs frequently fail to fulfill even minimal intentions while squandering scarce resources…”
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The reason for the past eight years of decline of the U.S. middle class was not the result of a cyclical downturn in business, nor the 2007—2009 recession.  It is the specific result of federal tax and spending practices which ignored the needs of the private sector, particularly small businesses, and redirects federal dollars away from essential needs such as economic growth, defense and infrastructure and towards entitlements (but NOT Social Security of Medicare.)

The most basic indicator of the health of the U.S. middle class is the availability and quality of employment.

The Wall Street Journal notes that “In the mid-1990s and early 2000s, it was common for economists to estimate the U.S. needed 200,000 or even 250,000 jobs every month to keep the rate steady over time.” The Labor Department’s [latest] survey of employers found that the economy created 156,000 new jobs in the last month of 2016, down from the 12-month average of 180,000. Some 12,000 of those were government jobs, including 5,000 for the feds. The numbers were even less inspiring in Labor’s household survey, which found only 63,000 net new jobs in the month. The household survey tends to better capture job growth among small businesses and it is the basis for the monthly unemployment rate, which ticked up to 4.7% from 4.6%.” However, if those who are working only part time because of a lack of full time jobs are counted, a shortage which can be blamed on Obama’s policies, the rate goes up to 9.2 percent. 5.5 million Americans fit into this category in December. Fortune  notes that a significant explanation of the reduced unemployment rate comes “from the large number of Americans who have dropped out of the workforce altogether.”

Among the marginally attached, there were 426,000 discouraged workers in December, down by 237,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available to them. The remaining 1.3 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in December had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.

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U.S. Economy, Employment in Crisis

Despite desperate efforts to portray the economy as stable, the latest economic reports and statistics outline an ongoing crisis.

The recent indicators from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reveal that from January 2013 through December 2015, there were 3.2 million workers displaced from jobs they had held for at least 3 years. This follows the 4.3 million workers for the prior survey period covering January 2011 to December 2013. In January 2016, only 66 percent of workers displaced from 2013 to 2015 were reemployed, and only 61 percent were found to be reemployed in the prior survey in January 2014.

Thirty-seven percent of long-tenured displaced workers from the 2013-15 period cited that they lost their job because their plant or company closed down or moved; an additional 37 percent said that their position or shift was abolished and 26 percent cited insufficient work. Seventeen percent of long-tenured displaced workers lost a job in manufacturing. Among long-tenured workers who were displaced from full-time wage and salary jobs and were reemployed in such jobs in January 2016, only 53 percent had earnings that were as much or greater than those of their lost job, similar to the prior.

94,391,000 Americans are not in the labor force, as the labor participation rate is at a distressingly low 62.8%, the lowest figure since 1977. CNS notes that “The best the Labor Participation rate been since Barack Obama took office is 65.8 percent in February 2009, the month after he was sworn in.” CNS also found that government employees in the United States outnumber manufacturing employees by 9,932,000. Federal, state and local government employed 22,213,000 people in August, while the manufacturing sector employed 12,281,000.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics  also found that Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased at a 0.6-percent annual rate during the second quarter of 2016. From the second quarter of 2015 to the second quarter of 2016, productivity decreased 0.4 percent, the first four-quarter decline in the series since a 0.6-percent decline in the second quarter of 2013.

The Institute for Supply Management  reports that: “Manufacturing contracted in August as the PMI registered 49.4 percent, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points from the July reading of 52.6 percent, indicating contraction in manufacturing…”
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Bloomberg notes that “The August [employment] figure is consistent with a simmering-down of payrolls growth so far this year…The average work week for all workers decreased by 6 minutes to 34.3 hours in July, the lowest since 2014 and the first drop in six months.”

A CNBC review notes that the average work week declined 0.1 percent to 34.3 hours. That was largely because the biggest jobs gains came in bars and restaurants, which added 34,000 positions. Social assistance grew by 22,000, professional and business services added 22,000, and Wall Street-related positions grew by 15,000. Health care also contributed 14,000.

The Wall Street Journal reports that “America is now home to a vast army of jobless men who are no longer even looking for work—roughly seven million of them age 25 to 54, the traditional prime of working life.

This is arguably a crisis, but it is hardly ever discussed in the public square…In 2015 the work rate (the ratio of employment to population) for American males age 25 to 54 was 84.4%. That’s slightly lower than it had been in 1940, 86.4%, at the tail end of the Great Depression. Benchmarked against 1965, when American men were at genuine full employment, the “male jobs deficit” in 2015 would be nearly 10 million, even after taking into account an older population and more adults in college…look at the fraction of American men age 20 and older without paid work…Clearly big changes in the U.S. economy, including the decline of manufacturing and the Big Slowdown since the start of the century, have played a role. But something else is at work, too: the male flight from work has been practically linear over the past two generations, irrespective of economic conditions or recessions.  What we might call “sociological” factors are evident, not least the tremendous rise in unworking men who draw from government disability and means-tested benefit programs.

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.1 percent in the second quarter of 2016, a near-recessionary figure.

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U.S. economy, unemployment rate continues to underperform

While the media and the Bureau of Labor Statistics  continue to cite the “U-3” statistic to indicate the unemployment rate (currently 5.3%) the more accurate and realistic number is the BLS’s U-6 number, currently at 10.4%.

Of that percentage, an increasingly worrisome subset—those who have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more—increased from 2,121,000 in June to 2,180,000 in July. A seriously troubling indicator of an economy that continues to be in ill health is the record 93,770,000 Americans not participating in the workforce, a 38 year low point.

There is little indication that the situation is improving, since the U.S. economy continues to grow below levels necessary to improve the jobs picture. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)  reports that “Real gross domestic product — the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes — increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the second quarter of 2015, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.6 percent (revised).

The BEA also announced on August 5  bad news in U.S. export numbers:

“[The] goods and services deficit was $43.8 billion in June, up $2.9 billion from $40.9 billion in May, revised. June exports were $188.6 billion, $0.1 billion less than May exports. June imports were $232.4 billion, $2.8 billion more than May imports.

“The June increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $2.9 billion to $63.5 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of less than $0.1 billion to $19.7 billion.

“Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $1.6 billion, or 0.6 percent, from the same period in 2014. Exports decreased $33.4 billion or 2.9 percent. Imports decreased $31.8 billion or 2.2 percent.

“Goods and Services Three-Month Moving Averages:

“The average goods and services deficit decreased $2.2 billion to $41.8 billion for the three months ending in June.

* Average exports of goods and services increased $0.2 billion to $189.1 billion in June.

* Average imports of goods and services decreased $2.1 billion to $230.9 billion in June.

Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit decreased $1.1 billion from the three months ending in June 2014.

* Average exports of goods and services decreased $6.8 billion from June 2014.

* Average imports of goods and services decreased $7.9 billion from June 2014.”

The jobs crisis is particularly acute for recent graduates, reports the Economic Policy Institute , even using the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ less accurate U3:

  • “For young college graduates, the unemployment rate is currently 7.2 percent (compared with 5.5 percent in 2007), and the underemployment rate is 14.9 percent (compared with 9.6 percent in 2007).
  • “For young high school graduates, the unemployment rate is 19.5 percent (compared with 15.9 percent in 2007), and the underemployment rate is 37.0 percent (compared with 26.8 percent in 2007).

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  • “The high share of unemployed and underemployed young college graduates and the share of employed young college graduates working in jobs that do not require a college degree underscore that the current unemployment crisis among young workers did notarise because today’s young adults lack the right education or skills. Rather, it stems from weak demand for goods and services, which makes it unnecessary for employers to significantly ramp up hiring.

EPI also reports:

  • “Wages of young college and high school graduates are performing poorly—and are substantially lower today than in 2000. The real (inflation-adjusted) wages of young high school graduates are 5.5 percent lower today than in 2000, and the wages of young college graduates are 2.5 percent lower.
  • “The cost of higher education has grown far more rapidly than median family income, leaving students with little choice but to take out loans which, upon graduating into a labor market with limited job opportunities, they may not have the funds to repay.
    • “From the 1983–1984 enrollment year to the 2013–2014 enrollment year, the inflation-adjusted cost of a four-year education, including tuition, fees, and room and board, increased 125.7 percent for private school and 129.0 percent for public school (according to the College Board).
    • “Between 2004 and 2014, there was a 92 percent increase in the number of student loan borrowers and a 74 percent increase in average student loan balances (according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York).
  • “Due to young college graduates’ limited job opportunities, stagnating wages, and the rising cost of higher education, college is becoming an increasingly difficult investment.”

The burden of severe levels of tuition-related debt makes the unemployment problem for college grads particularly troubling.

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The unemployment crisis continues

Despite optimistic statements from the White House, America’s unemployment crisis continues relatively unabated.

According to the most recent (June 19) report of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)  “twenty-five states had unemployment rate increases from April, 9 states and the District of Columbia had decreases, and 16 states had no change…”

Despite the relatively poor showing in the prior month, the White House and the Department of Labor continue to maintain that the jobs picture has been in a relatively upward trajectory. The BLS report goes on to note that  “Forty-five states and the District of Columbia had unemployment rate decreases from a year earlier and five states had increases. The national jobless rate was essentially unchanged from April at 5.5 percent and was 0.8 percentage point lower than in May 2014.”

A more accurate look at the statistics, however, reveals that the nation’s employment status remains critical. James Clifton, writing for the Gallup organization, states that “ The official unemployment rate, as reported by the U.S. Department of Labor, is extremely misleading…If you [are] unemployed and  [have] subsequently given up on finding a job — if you are so hopelessly out of work that you’ve stopped looking over the past four weeks — the Department of Labor doesn’t count you as unemployed… Right now, as many as 30 million Americans are either out of work or severely underemployed…There’s another reason why the official rate is misleading. Say you’re an out-of-work engineer … If you perform a minimum of one hour of work in a week and are paid at least $20 — maybe someone pays you to mow their lawn — you’re not officially counted as unemployed …Yet another figure of importance that doesn’t get much press: those working part time but wanting full-time work. If you have a degree in chemistry or math and are working 10 hours part time because it is all you can find …the government doesn’t count …”

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The labor participation rate has hit lows not seen for decades. The Heritage Foundation’s reports that the drop in labor force participation accounts for virtually the entire reduction of the unemployment rate since 2009.

The Administration has claimed that new jobs have been created under its tenure. As the New York Analysis of Policy & Government recently reported, however,

“The jobs that have come back following the depths of the recession have been lower paying than those that were lost. The Wall Street Journal reports “[T]he job market is a far cry from what it was before the financial crisis slammed the economy in 2008.  The number of jobs in manufacturing, construction and government—typically well-paying fields—has shrunk, while lower- wage work grew.  The U.S. has 1.6 million fewer manufacturing jobs than when the recession began, but 941,000 more jobs in the accommodation and food-service sector.  More than 40% of the jobs added in just the past year have come in generally lower-paying fields such as food service, retail, and temporary help. The bad news for Americans doesn’t stop there. An analysis by the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS)  notes that “two thirds of the net increase in employment since President Obama took office has gone to immigrant workers, primarily legal immigrants. [but also including some illegals]”

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AMERICAN DISINTEGRATION

Economically, diplomatically, socially and militarily, America’s fortunes have declined precipitously during the past several years.

 Each of those four areas, of course, is individually worthy of an intensive, lengthy analysis, but it is the consistency of deeply disappointing results across a broad spectrum that should be examined. The common thread that runs throughout Washington’s approach to each area is the pursuit of immediate gratification policies that are politically attractive in the short term, but will cause extensive long term crises. Over the next several days, the New York Analysis of Policy & Government will briefly outline each topic, describing how—and why– the nation’s condition has deteriorated. Today’s issue is the national economy.

 The National Economy

 Lower household income, extremely low job participation rates, deficit federal spending, and minimal business start ups all point to an economy in deep trouble. These distressing trends, in most cases, can no longer be called a result of the 2007 recession.  They are caused by ruinous policy enacted since 2009.

According to Sentier Research, The July 2014 median household income of $54,045 was 2.9 percent lower than the median of $55,639 in June 2009.

America is hemorrhaging jobs, and new business start ups are at an unacceptably low level.  The reasons are neither mysterious nor unsolvable.  Washington continues to impose the highest corporate tax levels on the planet, as well as excessively high personal taxation. It is rapidly expanding a daunting regulatory regime that actively works against business formation and job creation. The evidence is clear and extensive. Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Andy Puzder, CEO of CKE Restaurants, criticized the “feel good” goal of a 40% increase in minimum wage, advocated by many progressive politicians, which will result in a dramatic loss of jobs. America’s labor force participation rate is at its lowest rate since 1978.

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Some of the excess, including dramatically increasing spending on programs loosely termed welfare, can be seen as simple politics.  A large portion of the public supports these efforts. Other endeavors, such as staunchly advocating for a higher minimum wage, and the extraordinarily expensive Affordable Care Act legislation, while more controversial, still garner significant support and widespread adulation in the major media.  The long-term effects are drawbacks to employment growth and prosperity as a whole even as many individuals receive short-term benefits.

While ruinous in the long term, the reason these policies have been enacted is at least comprehensible from a populist political worldview.  But there are other areas which have no plausible explanation.

There is no justification for the incredible waste that took place in the stimulus program, in which over $700 billion was spent without any discernible accomplishment. The White House attempted to draw a comparison with FDR’s New Deal.  The comparison is inaccurate. New Deal programs produced buildings, parks, roads and dams. The stimulus developed nothing. It may well have been the greatest single wastage of funds in recorded history.

Despite an abundance of energy resources on federal lands that could make both corporate and individual lives far less costly, The White House chooses to intentionally keep them off the market while simultaneously working to eliminate current sources such as coal. Keeping energy prices high is a guaranteed way to hinder the economy.