Korean War – USA Gov Policy

Will a new war soon begin on the Korean peninsula, or is the latest series of threats from Pyongyang just another of Kim Jong-un’s blusters?

The South Korean Ministry of National Defense announced on Thursday that North Korea shot two artillery projectiles south of the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) at 3:53 p.m. and again at 4:12 p.m. that day. Civilians in the region have been evacuated.

The Ministry said in a statement during an evening briefing that, “the South Korean military fired dozens of rounds of 155mm shells toward the believed area from where the shells were launched as a warning.”

No casualties have been reported on either side.

The exchange of fire was precipitated by the killing of two South Korean soldiers by a land mine apparently planted by North Korea. The land mines were planted on a regular patrol route, according to South Korean, American, and United Nations officials. In response, South Korea began blasting statements over powerful loudspeakers, which North Korea objected to, demanding a cessation of the comments and targeting the loudspeakers with artillery.

According to the Seoul government, “The South Korean military has raised its vigilance to the highest level and has been closely watching the movement of the North Korean military, ready to respond strongly and decisively to any further provocations from the North.”

Before the statement, North Korea, which possesses nuclear weapons and significant missile capabilities, threatened the South in a message sent from its Central Military Commission at around 5 p.m. and through a radio broadcast to military units in the Yellow Sea. In the message, the North said that it would, “Take strong military action unless the South stops border propaganda broadcasts and dismantles broadcast facilities within 48 hours from 5 p.m. today.”

Yesterday, according to Asia One News, “North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un ordered his frontline troops onto a war-footing from Friday ….North Korea followed up with an ultimatum sent via military hotline that gave the South 48 hours to dismantle loudspeakers blasting propaganda messages across the border or face further military action. The ultimatum expires at Saturday, 5:00pm…The South’s defence ministry dismissed the threat and said the broadcasts would continue.”
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The two governments have exchanged fire in the past, in 2010 and 2014.

The BBC reports that North Korean news sources are stating that the Pyongyang government has declared a “semi-state of war” at an emergency meeting late Thursday. CBS news reports that “A North Korean military official said on Friday that senior party and defense officials led by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met Thursday night and “reviewed and approved the final attack operation.”

Last October, the Commander of U.S. forces in Korea, General Curtis Scapaorroti described the North Korean regime of Kim Jong Un as one that “remains in control of an isolated, authoritative regime that’s willing to use violence and threats of violence to advance its interests, gain recognition as a world power, and secure the regime’s survival.” Spacedaily.com has reported that North Korea has constructed a test facility at the Sinpo South Shipyard, apparently intended to develop sea-based ballistic missiles. The capability could facilitate either a surprise nuclear strike, an EMP attack, or provide the regime with a means to retaliate in the event a pre-emptive strike occurs to take out the country’s nuclear assets.

According to General Curtis Scapaorroti, “In recent years, North Korea has focused on development of asymmetric capabilities. These capabilities include several hundred ballistic missiles, one of the world’s largest chemical weapons stockpiles, a biological weapons research program, and the world’s largest special operations force, as well as an active cyber-warfare capability.” The Pyongyang government has, in violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions, carried out three nuclear tests and continues an active ballistic missile development program.

It should be remembered that if the full sequester cuts are carried out by Washington, the United States Army will be smaller than its North Korean counterpart by the end of 2015.

Overall, North Korea possesses the 4^th largest military in the world, and About 70-75% of its ground forces and 50% of its air and naval assets are within 60 miles of the DMZ.

Two key factors have assisted North Korea’s rise as a military power. Its close relationship with China renders international pressure relatively ineffective, as Beijing’s vast economic strength can offset global actions. The other challenge is the sharply diminished state of American military power, particularly its Navy, which is at its lowest level since World War One.

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.