Will a new war soon begin on the Korean peninsula, or is the latest series of threats from Pyongyang just another of Kim Jong-un’s blusters?
The South Korean Ministry of National Defense announced on Thursday that North Korea shot two artillery projectiles south of the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) at 3:53 p.m. and again at 4:12 p.m. that day. Civilians in the region have been evacuated.
The Ministry said in a statement during an evening briefing that, “the South Korean military fired dozens of rounds of 155mm shells toward the believed area from where the shells were launched as a warning.”
No casualties have been reported on either side.
The exchange of fire was precipitated by the killing of two South Korean soldiers by a land mine apparently planted by North Korea. The land mines were planted on a regular patrol route, according to South Korean, American, and United Nations officials. In response, South Korea began blasting statements over powerful loudspeakers, which North Korea objected to, demanding a cessation of the comments and targeting the loudspeakers with artillery.
According to the Seoul government, “The South Korean military has raised its vigilance to the highest level and has been closely watching the movement of the North Korean military, ready to respond strongly and decisively to any further provocations from the North.”
Before the statement, North Korea, which possesses nuclear weapons and significant missile capabilities, threatened the South in a message sent from its Central Military Commission at around 5 p.m. and through a radio broadcast to military units in the Yellow Sea. In the message, the North said that it would, “Take strong military action unless the South stops border propaganda broadcasts and dismantles broadcast facilities within 48 hours from 5 p.m. today.”
Yesterday, according to Asia One News, “North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un ordered his frontline troops onto a war-footing from Friday ….North Korea followed up with an ultimatum sent via military hotline that gave the South 48 hours to dismantle loudspeakers blasting propaganda messages across the border or face further military action. The ultimatum expires at Saturday, 5:00pm…The South’s defence ministry dismissed the threat and said the broadcasts would continue.”
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The two governments have exchanged fire in the past, in 2010 and 2014.
The BBC reports that North Korean news sources are stating that the Pyongyang government has declared a “semi-state of war” at an emergency meeting late Thursday. CBS news reports that “A North Korean military official said on Friday that senior party and defense officials led by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met Thursday night and “reviewed and approved the final attack operation.”
Last October, the Commander of U.S. forces in Korea, General Curtis Scapaorroti described the North Korean regime of Kim Jong Un as one that “remains in control of an isolated, authoritative regime that’s willing to use violence and threats of violence to advance its interests, gain recognition as a world power, and secure the regime’s survival.” Spacedaily.com has reported that North Korea has constructed a test facility at the Sinpo South Shipyard, apparently intended to develop sea-based ballistic missiles. The capability could facilitate either a surprise nuclear strike, an EMP attack, or provide the regime with a means to retaliate in the event a pre-emptive strike occurs to take out the country’s nuclear assets.
According to General Curtis Scapaorroti, “In recent years, North Korea has focused on development of asymmetric capabilities. These capabilities include several hundred ballistic missiles, one of the world’s largest chemical weapons stockpiles, a biological weapons research program, and the world’s largest special operations force, as well as an active cyber-warfare capability.” The Pyongyang government has, in violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions, carried out three nuclear tests and continues an active ballistic missile development program.
It should be remembered that if the full sequester cuts are carried out by Washington, the United States Army will be smaller than its North Korean counterpart by the end of 2015.
Overall, North Korea possesses the 4th largest military in the world, and About 70-75% of its ground forces and 50% of its air and naval assets are within 60 miles of the DMZ.
Two key factors have assisted North Korea’s rise as a military power. Its close relationship with China renders international pressure relatively ineffective, as Beijing’s vast economic strength can offset global actions. The other challenge is the sharply diminished state of American military power, particularly its Navy, which is at its lowest level since World War One.