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U.S. Employment Downturn continues

The economic news continues to deteriorate, as the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)  report reveals that job creation is at a bare minimum level. But the overall lack of job creation is only part of the problem. Some of the most important jobs for the U.S. middle class are actually shrinking in number, the labor participation rate continues to decline to dangerously low levels, and the number of those who could only find part time work has grown larger.

According to the BLS release, “nonfarm payroll employment changed little (+38,000.) Employment increased in health care. Mining continued to lose jobs…In May, the civilian labor force participation rate decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 62.6 percent.  The rate has declined by 0.4 percentage point over the past 2 months…The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (also referred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased by 468,000 to 6.4 million in May, after showing little movement since November. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. In May, 1.7 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, little changed from a year earlier….These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Among the marginally attached, there were 538,000 discouraged workers in May, essentially unchanged from a year earlier. Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.2 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in May had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.”

The raw numbers are discouraging, but an examination of the types of jobs lost and the few gained provides even more cause for concern.

The types of jobs that could provide a boost to the general economy both providing good pay and by reducing the continuous and massive trade deficit have continued to decline in number.

In May, mining employment continued to decline, losing 10,000 positions. The BLS notes that “Since reaching a peak in September 2014, mining has lost 207,000 jobs. Support activities for mining accounted for three-fourths of the jobs lost during this period, including 6,000 in May.”

Similar problems can be seen in manufacturing. Employment in durable goods declined by 18,000 in May, with job losses of 7,000 in machinery and 3,000 in furniture and related products.
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Masking the downturn in employment are some gains in health care, which added 46,000 jobs in May, with increases occurring in ambulatory health care services (24,000), hospitals (17,000), and nursing care facilities (5,000). Over the year, health care employment has increased by 487,000.

The BLS also downgraded previously reported employment numbers. The increase in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was reduced from 208,000 To 186,000, and the change for April was reduced from 160,000 to +23,000. With these revisions, employment gains in March and April combined were 59,000 less than previously reported.

A record 94,708,000 prospective workers are not currently in the workforce (a labor participation rate drop to 62.6%.)  Overall, this is the worst jobs report since September of 2010. The jobs creation number over the past three months is only 347,000, the worst stretch since 2012, and many of those are not the most desirable positions.

The prospects for future gains remain bleak. An excessively high regulatory regime, combined with anti-job policies such as the President’s Clean Power Plan and America’s uncompetitive corporate tax rate point to a continuation and perhaps a worsening of the current doldrums.

The poor numbers cannot be attributed to the 2007 recession; they indicate an economy that is entering a wholly new and separate downturn, a result of failed economic policies.

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Fundamental Weakness in U.S. Economy

There is growing evidence that the fundamental underpinnings of the U.S. economy are weak.

The indicators are significant.  The Federal Reserve  reports that Industrial production declined 0.4 percent in December. The decrease for total industrial production in November was larger than previously reported. For the fourth quarter as a whole, industrial production fell at an annual rate of 3.4 percent. Manufacturing output edged down in December. Mining production decreased 0.8 percent in December for its fourth consecutive monthly decline. At 106.0 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production in December was 1.8 percent below its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.4 percentage point in December to 76.5 percent, a rate that is 3.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2014) average.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis disclosed that the latest numbers for the U.S. Balance of Trade in goods and services indicated a deficit of $42.4 billion, meaning that foreign nations sold far more to the U.S. than America sold to them. “Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $25.2 billion, or 5.5 percent, from the same period in 2014. Exports decreased $99.0 billion or 4.6 percent. Imports decreased $73.7 billion or 2.8 percent…Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $1.2 billion from the three months ending in November 2014.

The poor performance of the economy is reflected in the jobs picture. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics the seasonally adjusted number of Americans 16 and over filing for unemployment in Dec. 0f 2014 was 147,190, but in December of 2015, it was 149,929. In addition, initial jobless claims increased by 10,000 in the January 10—January 16 period, the highest level in half a year.  Marketwatch notes that “initial claims have risen more than 14% after touching a post-recession low of 256,000 in early October.”

Writing in the Washington Times, Donald Lambro warns that the U.S. is headed for another recession.  “Much of the major economic data suggests we’re moving in that direction…Clearly our economy is slowing down and economists are forecasting that fourth quarter growth in 2015 will be down significantly…All the telltale signs are there. Consumers aren’t buying as they used to, even with rock bottom oil prices and a gas tank of regular costing less than $2 a gallon. Yet retail sales fell in December at the height of the Christmas buying season. A New York Times headline last week put it this way: ‘Retail Sales Were Lackluster in December, Signaling Fragile Economy.’

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Bloomberg notes that “Investment managers are warning that markets probably have further to fall …The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will drop another 10 percent to 1,650.” That projected is mirrored by the International Business Times  Projections for 2016 are cloudy, with some prominent economists warning of an imminent U.S. recession and others predicting smooth sailing ahead.”

There is little reason to believe that direct Washington spending can or will stimulate the economy.  President Obama’s $831 billion stimulus package–The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009—accomplished little, and the nearly bankrupt federal government doesn’t have the resources for another attempt. The national debt, which skyrocketed under the Obama Administration, is nearing $19 trillion, and will grow even larger. The Congressional Budget Office  predicts that the federal budget will also be severely stressed in the coming year. “In 2016, the federal budget deficit will increase… If current laws generally remained unchanged, the deficit would grow over the next 10 years, and by 2026 it would be considerably larger than its average over the past 50 years… Debt held by the public would also grow significantly from its already high level.”

The central question is how the generally robust American economy descended to its current condition, and why it continues to exhibit weakness. Similar to the 2007 recession, which was caused by decades of a misguided government legislation  that mandated high-risk loans which eventually caused serious harm to key financial institutions, the looming—perhaps better described as ongoing– crisis results from federal policies.

American employers face severe disadvantages. Tax rates are the highest of any developed nation, and regulations are more extreme. Bad trade deals continue to allow nations to sell relatively unhindered to U.S. consumers, while Washington does little to address discriminatory treatment of American productions sold overseas. In many cases, the intellectual property produced in the U.S., including software, entertainment features, and new/advanced technological techniques and goods are outright stolen through industrial espionage and other means, with little response from the U.S. government.

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The Election is Over; Now its time to address America’s Crises

The 2014 elections are finally over, and the work of actually resolving America’s many crises must begin.

There is a temptation for the public, the pundits and the politicians alike to say that the nation’s enormous challenges can’t be resolved before the 2016 presidential election, and to accept only minor revisions to the strategies that have resulted in the country’ diminished fortunes over the past several years. But the dire impact of erroneous policies is so significant that delay is unacceptable. Congress must act rapidly, and the President must find the courage and honesty to change course.

The essential linchpin of the American economy is a healthy middle class. A combination of the expiration of the Bush tax cuts, the increased costs to businesses and consumers alike of Obamacare, heightened fuel prices, and the loss of steady jobs has wreaked havoc with this vital group.

Before the next federal budget is passed, action must be taken to lower taxes on middle income families.  Similarly, the various regulations, including Obamacare mandates that have discouraged businesses from growing and expanding their employment rolls must be repealed. This should also include reducing America’s absurdly high corporate tax rate, which encourages businesses to leave the U.S. and take jobs with them.

The U.S. balance of trade continues to see far too many dollars going overseas. It is time to keep those funds at home, where they can be used to spark the domestic economy.  The most rapid way of doing that is making the nation truly energy independent. Lands under federal control must finally be opened for energy exploitation. Also, attempts to limit other energy sources, including coal, must stop. This will also have two other beneficial effects: it will lower the cost of energy, reducing may other consumer and business expenses, and will also limit the enormous funds Russia and ISIS take in from energy sales that are funneled to their militaries.

It is also time to review American trade policies.  Unfair advantages have been given to foreign competitors, who, not subject to a variety of rigorous federal rules, can manufacture far more cheaply than U.S. companies. Goods imported from abroad for sale in the U.S. should be subjected to similar mandates,or be subjected to fees that level the playing field. Further, nations that restrict imports from America should have reciprocal limitations placed on their exports.
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The most imminent threat, one that has reached a level that constitutes a clear, present and immediate danger to the safety of all Americans, is the dramatic deterioration of America’s defense posture during the past several years. The U.S. military had already been slashed to the bone, best symbolized by the Navy’s reduction from 600 ships to 284. Under the severe cuts of the past several years, America has seen force drops reducing our services to levels not seen since before the First World War.  Under current plans, even North Korea will have a larger army than ours. These reductions have taken place at the same time that Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran have dramatically built up both the size and sophistication of their forces.

Further, in an era when nuclear proliferation is a disturbing reality, and when regimes such as Iran and North Korea are on the verge of having both nuclear weapons and the ICBMs with which to use them to attack America, it is irresponsible to not deploy a comprehensive anti-missile policy.

These threats must be addressed in the next federal budget.

The Legislative Branch must reassert its role as a check on the Executive Branch far more vigorously. During the era of the Obama Presidency, federal agencies such as the IRS, the Federal Communications Commission, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Education, and most ominously the Department of Justice have all been used for partisan political gain.  This must cease, and it is within the authority and capability of the newly elected Congress to viably and rapidly address that threat to the American Constitution.

These are crises whose solutions cannot be postponed.