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Quick Analysis

NATO Maintains Security in a Changing World

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg delivered, on September 26, an important address on NATO’s role in maintaining security in a changing world. The New York Analysis of Policy and Government provides key excerpts:

As the Cold War came to an end, the peoples of Central and Eastern Europe were anxious to secure their new-found freedom.  The first major step was membership in NATO.  The prospect of being welcomed into our family helped those nations make difficult democratic and economic reforms.  NATO membership gave them the certainty that they were safe and the confidence to focus on growth, on the wellbeing of their people, and soon on membership of the European Union.  Today, they are strong independent nations, thanks in large part to the bedrock of security that comes with NATO membership. 

Today, our values are once again under pressure.  We see this in our countries, where we face sophisticated disinformation campaigns, aiming to undermine our democratic processes, meddling in our democratic elections and cyberattacks on our governments, institutions and companies.  And our values are not universally held.  In many countries, people are denied the right to elect their own leaders, imprisoned for voicing their political views and closely monitored by the governments, using the latest technology.  Yet, from Moscow to Hong Kong, we can always see how people are willing to stand up and fight for freedom, whatever [the] odds.  This shows the enduring strength of our values.  We believe in them simply because democracy is better than dictatorship, tolerance is better than intolerance, and freedom is better than oppression. 

A second challenge is the shifting balance of power.  Today, the countries of the NATO Alliance account for roughly half of global GDP.  20 Years ago, that figure was almost 75%.  Over the next decade, China is forecast to overtake the United States as the largest economy in the world.  And military spending by China has almost doubled over the last ten years, giving it the second biggest defence budget in the world after the United States. 

At the same time, we are seeing challenges to the established rules-based order.  Russia is not the partner we once hoped it to be.  Rather than following international norms and rules, it is undermining them.  From its illegal annexation of Crimea to assassination attempts on NATO territory, from cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns to supporting the Assad regime in Syria.  It is also investing heavily in its armed forces, replacing its aging ships, carriers and aircraft, and investing in advanced weapon systems such as laser cannons. 

We also see proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and aggressive and destabilising behaviour by nations such as Iran and North Korea.  All of this means that, to protect our freedom, we must continue to invest in our defence.  All NATO Allies are increasing defence spending and more Allies are meeting the guideline of spending 2% of GDP on their defence.  By the end of next year, European Allies and Canada will have spent an additional 100 billion US$ on defence since 2016.  Economically, politically and militarily, together we are stronger. 

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A third challenge is the rapid pace of disruptive technological change.  This is transforming our daily lives.  Technology changes fast.  We are in the midst of a new industrial revolution.  Artificial intelligence, facial recognition, big data, biotech, extraordinary technologies that have the potential to revolutionise our societies.  They can help us solve some of our most difficult problems: curing diseases, tackling climate change, growing our economies. 

At the opening ceremony of last year’s Winter Olympics, we saw one pilot control more than 1200 drones in a stunning light show.  The display was beautiful.  But imagine that same technology being used to cripple a state-of-the-art aircraft carrier, or even to destroy a seat of government.  Some civilian technologies can be used for military purpose and others are being developed specifically for military use, such as hypersonic missiles, autonomous weapon systems and cyber warfare.  All of this is changing the nature of warfare. 

For 70 years, NATO’s deterrence and defence has relied upon maintaining our technological edge, on being better and more advanced than our opponents.  We have done this by investing more in research and development than anyone else, but today we are under fierce competition.  For example, President Xi has announced plans for China to become the world’s leading power in artificial intelligence by the end of 2030 and is investing billions of dollars to make it happen.  Our future security depends on our ability to understand, adopt and implement emerging disruptive technologies.  NATO has a key role to play in this transformation.  It can serve as a forum for Allies and partners to consider the difficult, ethical and legal questions that will inevitably arise from these technologies.

Importantly, NATO coordinates defence planning among nations, ensuring Allies are investing, developing and adopting the latest technologies.  And it creates common standards, procedures and other means of maintaining our ability to work together, in peace time, in crisis and, when necessary, in combat. 

NATO was created by people who could see beyond the world as it was, towards the world as it could be, and then to act to shape the future.  Back then, they could see the terrible threat posed by the Soviet Union, but they could also see the potential strength of western democracies united for peace. 

NATO is the bedrock of our security. 

Photo: Sec. General Jens Stoltenberg (NATO)

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NATO Expands Defense Spending, Criticizes Russia, Part 2

This month, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg presented the NATOs Annual Report. We continue our review by presenting excerpts presenting the Alliance’s views on Russia, and nuclear deterrence.

Russia

Relations with Russia NATO’s policy towards Russia remains consistent: defence and dialogue.

After the Cold War, NATO and Russia were striving towards a strategic partnership. However, after Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, all practical cooperation was suspended.

At the same time, however, NATO maintains political dialogue and military-to-military lines of communications with Russia. Efforts to reduce risk and increase transparency are also ongoing. At the Warsaw Summit, NATO leaders reaffirmed that the nature of the Alliance’s relations with Russia will be contingent on a clear, constructive change in Russia’s actions – one that demonstrates compliance with international law and its international obligations and responsibilities.

The Alliance maintains a firm position, based on a dual-track approach of strong deterrence and defence complemented by a periodic, focused and meaningful dialogue. That dialogue is carried out on the basis of reciprocity in the NATO-Russia Council. This is important to avoid misunderstanding, miscalculation and unintended escalation, as well as to increase transparency and predictability.

In 2017, the NATO-Russia Council met three times – in March, July and October. At each meeting, the Council discussed the conflict in and around Ukraine, including the need for the full implementation of the Minsk Agreements, issues relating to military activities, transparency and risk reduction, as well as the security situation in Afghanistan and the regional terrorist threat.

NATO continued to maintain a dialogue with Russia on air safety in the Baltic Sea region. In light of the increased air activity in the Baltic Sea region in recent years, it has become increasingly important to boost predictability and transparency in order to prevent incidents and accidents, and avoid unintended escalation. In 2016, the International Civil Aviation Organization’s Baltic Sea Project Team briefed the NATO-Russia Council on this important topic. Subsequently, a Finnish-led Expert Group on Baltic Sea Air Safety was established to build on the work of the Baltic Sea Project Team. The group – with the participation of Allied and partner countries from the region, Russia and NATO, inter alia – developed recommendations and guidance on the handling and resolution of air encounters between all aircraft, both civilian and military, in peacetime. Supported by the Allies, these recommendations were published by the International Civil Aviation Organization in December 2017.

In 2017, the NATO-Russia Council began to exchange advanced reciprocal briefings on upcoming exercises. This mutual exchange has the potential to contribute towards greater predictability and risk reduction in the Euro-Atlantic area. However, these voluntary briefings cannot replace mandatory transparency under the Vienna Document.

The Secretary General met with the Russian Foreign Minister in February, May and September. The Deputy Secretary General maintained regular contact with the Russian Ambassador to NATO throughout the year, as well as with other Russian officials. NATO’s military leaders have also continued to communicate directly with their Russian counterparts.
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Nuclear Deterence

Nuclear deterrence has made a major contribution to peace and stability in Europe and beyond for more than 70 years, and has been at the heart of NATO’s posture. At the Warsaw Summit in 2016, Allies recognised the importance of nuclear deterrence as a key element of the Allied deterrence posture, for the specific purpose of preserving peace, preventing coercion, and deterring aggression. As long as nuclear weapons exist, NATO will remain a nuclear alliance.

At the same time, the Alliance is committed to seeking the conditions necessary for a world without nuclear weapons, in accordance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and in a step-by-step and verifiable manner.

NATO is also concerned about the threat of nuclear proliferation and it has taken a firm stand in condemning the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea for carrying out nuclear and missile tests. North Korea’s destabilising behaviour poses a threat to international peace and security and the Alliance has called on North Korea to abandon nuclear weapons and nuclear and ballistic missile programmes in a complete, verifiable, and irreversible manner. NATO also urges the country to comply with its international obligations and recommit to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Allied commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty remains unwavering. The Treaty is the cornerstone of the global nuclear non-proliferation and safeguards regime and the basis for global disarmament efforts.

The Alliance also recognises the importance of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty to EuroAtlantic security. The Treaty has contributed to strategic stability and reduced the risk of miscalculation leading to conflict. The Alliance is committed to the preservation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and strongly believes full compliance with this landmark arms control treaty is needed. In December 2017, NATO recognised the United States’ compliance with its obligations under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and its commitment to implementing the Treaty. The Alliance also welcomed the continued efforts by the United States to engage Russia to resolve concerns about Russia’s compliance with the Treaty.

NATO photo

 

 

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Quick Analysis

NATO Expands Defense Spending, Criticizes Russia

This month, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg presented the Alliance’s Annual Report.

In 2017, European Allies and Canada increased spending on defense by almost 5%.  There have now been three consecutive years of growth since 2014. In 2017, twenty-six Allies spent more in real terms on major equipment than the year before.

“All NATO members have pledged to continue to increase defence spending in real terms. The majority have already put in place plans on how to meet the 2% guideline by 2024. And we expect others to follow”, according to Stoltenberg.

At the end of 2017, there were over 23,000 troops serving in NATO deployments, up from just under 18,000 in 2014, before Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and the rise of ISIS, an increase of 30%.

The Secretary General also addressed the recent use of a nerve agent in the United Kingdom, noting that this was “the first offensive use of a nerve agent on Alliance territory since NATO’s foundation”. “All Allies agree that the attack was a clear breach of international norms and agreements,” and they have “called on Russia to address the UK’s questions”, he noted.

Stoltenberg stated that the backdrop to the attack was “a reckless pattern of Russian behaviour over many years…the illegal annexation of Crimea and military support to separatists in Eastern Ukraine. The military presence in Moldova and Georgia against these countries’ will. Meddling in Montenegro and elsewhere in the Western Balkans. Attempts to subvert democratic elections and institutions. And the military build-up from the North of Europe to the Middle East.” He also warned that the “blurring of the line” between nuclear and conventional warfare “lowers the threshold for Russia’s use of nuclear weapons.”

Key Excepts from NATO’s Annual Report

NATO is adapting. Part of being a truly 21st century Alliance is about speed: speed of awareness, speed of decisionmaking, speed of action, speed of reinforcement and speed of adaptation – what is sometimes called the ‘speed of relevance’. And a more agile, more responsive, more innovative NATO is a stronger and more effective NATO.

2017 was a defining year in that continuing evolution. At our meeting of NATO leaders in Brussels in May, we took important decisions on how to implement fairer burden-sharing and stepping up the fight against terrorism – decisions which are making the Alliance stronger.

Last year, we also deployed four multinational battlegroups to the east of the Alliance and strengthened our Forward Presence in the Black Sea region. We welcomed Montenegro as the 29th member of the Alliance. We joined the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, with our AWACS planes, and training of Iraqi forces. We increased our support to Jordan and Tunisia. And we worked hand-in-hand with the European Union to keep our seas safe, fight terrorism, and defend against cyber attacks.

A more uncertain security environment requires that we invest more in defence, develop the right military capabilities, and make the necessary contributions to our military operations and missions. In 2014, Allies pledged to stop cuts to their defence budgets, increase defence spending, and move towards investing at least 2% of their GDP in defence within a decade.

Since then we have seen three consecutive years of growth in defence expenditure across Europe and Canada, adding a total of 46 billion dollars to defence. All Allies have pledged to continue to increase defence spending in real terms. In 2017 alone, European Allies and Canada increased their defence expenditure by almost 5%. This year, we expect eight allies to meet the 2% guideline. And the majority of Allies already have plans on how to meet the 2% guideline by 2024.

So the picture is clear: the Alliance is doing more to respond and adapt to an uncertain security environment. All Allies are stepping up: doing more, in more places, in more ways, to strengthen our shared security.

The Alliance remained committed to strengthening its deterrence and defence. In 2017, NATO bolstered its defensive presence in the eastern part of the Alliance. In just a year, the Alliance implemented the Warsaw Summit decision to establish a rotational Forward Presence – deploying four multinational battlegroups to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, and strengthening its presence in the Black Sea region.
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NATO maintained an all-round approach to collective defence, including by deepening its focus on threats from the Alliance’s southern flank. For example, NATO established a Regional Hub for the South in September 2017. The Hub aims to improve situational awareness and to enhance engagement with partners.

The Alliance continues to ensure it can perform its three core tasks: collective defence, crisis management, and cooperative security. In recent years, this has required NATO to recalibrate its missions, operations and activities to better meet changing security needs. NATO has wound down some activities, such as its counter-piracy mission off the Horn of Africa, and transformed others, including by transitioning from a combat to a training mission in Afghanistan. At the same time, to keep its nations safe in the face of new security challenges, the Alliance has invested in reinforcing and developing a number of activities, including on Allied territory.

As part of this adaptation process, NATO has strengthened its collective defence, tripling the size of the NATO Response Force from roughly 13,000 to 40,000 troops and establishing a 5,000-strong Very High Readiness Joint Task Force. The Alliance has boosted its Forward Presence in the northeast and southeast of the Alliance and strengthened assurance and support measures inside Alliance territory, including by enhancing air policing. NATO has also adapted its maritime security posture in the Mediterranean and invested in supporting the security and stability of partners by training local institutions and forces to fight terrorism.

Following the 2016 Warsaw Summit decision to make cyberspace an operational domain, the Alliance continued to strengthen its cyber defences and to fully integrate cyber defence into operational planning. At the same time, NATO is undertaking the largest modernisation of its information technology and networks in decades.

NATO also established a new intelligence division at its Headquarters in Brussels, improving Allies’ ability to obtain and share information on potential security threats.

Since the Wales Summit in 2014, NATO has implemented the largest reinforcement of its collective defence in a generation. As part of this extensive effort, NATO has increased its presence in the northeast and southeast of the Alliance. In 2017, NATO deployed four multinational battlegroups in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. Led by the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany and the United States respectively, this Forward Presence became fully operational in the summer. Around 4,500 troops are deployed and embedded in the home defence forces of the host nations, training and exercising with those forces on a daily basis. Over the past year, more than 20 Allies contributed forces and capabilities to this initiative, a clear demonstration of Allied solidarity and commitment. The battlegroups represent a proportionate and defensive force, in line with NATO’s determination to provide effective deterrence and to ensure collective defence. They send a message that an attack against any Ally would be an attack against the whole Alliance, and met with a collective response.

In the face of evolving security challenges in the Black Sea region, NATO also took steps to strengthen its presence in the southeast of the Alliance. This element of NATO’s Forward Presence comprises the deployment of a multinational brigade for training, and an expanded air and maritime presence in the Black Sea region. Together, these are distinct and important contributions to the Alliance’s strengthened deterrence and defence posture, and to its situational awareness.

The multinational framework brigade, led by Romania, was established in April 2017 and is expected to become fully operational by the end of 2018. The brigade is being developed with affiliated forces from Bulgaria, Italy, Poland, Portugal and the United States, with contributions from Canada, Germany, Hungary, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Slovakia and Spain.

NATO’s strengthened Forward Presence does not exist in isolation. The Alliance’s rapid-reinforcement strategy ensures that in a collective defence scenario the multinational battlegroups – alongside national home defence forces – would be reinforced by the brigade-sized Very High Readiness Joint Task Force, ready to be deployed in days, followed by the remainder of the approximately 40,000 troops of the enhanced NATO Response Force.

NATO has also invested in reinforcing its ability to understand and respond to security challenges along its southern borders. The Alliance continues to provide support to Turkey, including by augmenting Turkish air defence capabilities through the deployment of missile batteries, air policing and port visits. NATO actively contributes to security in its southern neighbourhood by being an active member of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS and by supporting its partners’ efforts to fight terrorism. NATO continues to be present in the Aegean and Mediterranean Seas, working to support maritime situational awareness, counter terrorism, combat illegal trafficking and enhance capacity-building.

In 2017, NATO boosted its awareness of the threats and challenges from the south, including by establishing a Regional Hub at the Allied Joint Force Command Naples. The Alliance has also committed to improving its ability to conduct expeditionary operations, for example by carrying out more high level exercises that reflect challenges emanating from its southern neighbourhood.

NATO photo

The Report Concludes Tomorrow.