ISil – USA Gov Policy

The day after the President Obama announced enhanced airstrikes against ISIS, 13 years into America’s long march against Islamic extremism, Secretary of State John Kerry declared we were not at war with ISIS but “What we are doing is engaging in a very significant counter-terrorism operation, and it’s going to go on for some period of time.”

This was followed by the British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond telling reporters at a news conference in Berlin: Let me be clear; Britain will not be taking part in any air strikes in Syria.” He said London won’t be “revisiting” the issue after Parliament decided last year against participating in air strikes. Number 10 Downing Street then had to walk that back by saying that P.M. David Cameron had not yet decided on air strikes.

Further complications occurred after that with Germany stating that they were not yet in the coalition, followed by Turkey and then Saudi Arabia announcing that their contribution would be restricted to the training of the Syrian Free Army on Saudi territory.

Friday it got worse with the CIA in a surprise release stating that ISIS had grown by as much as 300% since June and now numbered between 20,000 and 31,500 fighters in the terror army. This would make ISIS the 76th largest army out of 106 forces in the world. It should be remembered that when they took Fallujah in the beginning of 2014 they were estimated to be around 4000 strong.

In matters both foreign and domestic, Obama’s presidency has been one of unnecessarily diminished expectations. Thus when he gives us a little, many tend to bequeath it a potency that is not there. He began his fifteen minutes into war making with a pronouncement that ISIL or ISIS is not Islamic nor is it a state. Who then are the volunteers who have swelled its ranks at 500 a week…Presbyterians? The insistence of Obama to protect anything and everything Islamic is the source of this obsession. The reflexive impulse to see Islam in western terms is the source of those non Muslims who always want to begin the conversation with the assertion that “Islam is a religion of Peace”. They are the 21st century avatars of those with a “little knowledge” and thus are as dangerous as ISIS.

Then came his predictable pledge of no ground troops from the US, causing Speaker Boehner to decry “An F-16 is not a strategy” and that an air war alone will not get the job done. There is no need for foreign spies in the U.S. when the President gives away military strategy in televised national speeches.

Obama’s claim that ISIS or the Islamic State is highly questionable. ISIS now occupies 18 cities in Iraq and 22 cities in Syria. 31 of that total are under their full control. The opposition to ISIS, which includes both the disparate elements of the Syrian Free Army and the Syrian Army of Bashir al-assad is all in the eastern corridor. Part of the east, the north central and the west are basically controlled by ISIS.
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In Iraq, Anbar and parts of Diyala, Salahuddin and Nineveh Provinces extending south to Bagdad and west to Kurdistan are controlled by ISIS. This territory is roughly the size of Belgium or Jordan and estimated by some to be as large as 35,000 square miles. The 8 Sunni “militias’ in the Sunni triangle at the present time are all either supporting ISIS or in a truce with them although there have been incidents of fighting between ISIS and the Jaysh Rijal al- Tariqa al- Naqshbandia (JRTN) the largest Sunni nationalist groups that also has Caliphate type dreams. ISIS also controls one border crossing in Syria and perhaps as many as three in Iraq.

Over two million people in both Syria and Iraq have been displaced and are living in Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey or Iraqi Kurdistan.

Obama has now based the foreign policy portion of what remains of his Presidency on a proposal that seems both unstable and unserious. It is beginning to feel in its infancy like more spin than substance and some openly wonder if this is serious or just more political necessity.

He has tried to convince us that he waited for a new regime in Bagdad and now that he has it no one can really say if it is the real deal or not. In Iraq, it is a new Sunni Awakening that is needed along with an Iraqi army that can and will fight. In Syria it is a collection of insurgents, some with al-Qaeda ties, who Mr. Obama just weeks ago demeaned as “Doctors, Farmers and Pharmacists” whom he would be stupid to arm. Then his core principle was “don’t do stupid stuff””. Now it is “no safe haven” for those who try to kill us. The truth is that nobody knows what this is or where this is going and that in the long run is the biggest danger of it all.

No American should be sent into harms way if the ultimate objective is not complete and total victory. Anything less is immoral and illogical. A three year campaign with the finale left to a new President is yet another example of his propensity to fit square pegs into round holes. It is a graduate studies exercise devoid of the essence of or the unpredictability of the reality of war. Why three years? Three years will allow this cancer to metastasize and grow until ISIS is not just part of Islam but is Islam itself.

Article researched and written by Larry Allison

In President Obama’s long-awaited address on responding to the growing threat from ISIS, he promised to increase bombing to areas outside of Iraq, and to provide arms to the Syrian Free Army. He noted that several other nations would join in the effort.

Bizarrely, as noted by House Armed Services Committee Chair Bud McKeon, the president used his strategy “in Yemen and Somalia as examples of how the tactics he is recommending can contain violent terrorists. I would remind him that al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) remains the al Qaeda affiliate most capable of attacking the American homeland and exporting violent jihad. Al Shabaab in Somalia continues to carry out attacks against American and Western interests, while recruiting fighters from the United States. The President’s approach simply will not be adequate to address the threat posed by ISIL either.”

This is the speech Mr. Obama’s should have given:

“My fellow Americans, I made a terrible mistake when I prematurely pulled American forces out of Iraq just as democracy was beginning to initiate the basis of a stable nation, however imperfectly. This provided a vacuum which ISIS was able to exploit. I had planned to do the exact same thing in Afghanistan, a decision I now regret and which I now renounce.

“I realize that I should have listened to my military and intelligence advisors, and I now plan to do so far more going forward. I had planned to do the exact same thing in Afghanistan, a decision I now regret and which I now renounce. I also realize that my prior statement about al Qaeda being on the run was also incorrect, as was my statement that ISIS was a “JV” and not a serious force to be reckoned with.

“I know that my supporters want me to insure the nation that I will not use ground power against ISIS, but to give that guarantee will only serve to help ISIS’ leaders plan their defense so I will not say that. In light of what has occurred in Iraq, I now also see that my softening of sanctions on another extreme Islamic entity, Iran, was incorrect. It has not resulted in a reduction in their nuclear program. It was done with the best of intentions, but it didn’t work.
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“In retrospect, it is clear that my failure to respond forcefully to the attack on our facility in Benghazi gave an impression of American weakness that emboldened our enemies.

“All of this turmoil makes me realize how valuable our ally Israel is to us. It is on the front lines facing a vicious enemy that seeks to destroy both of us. I will work diligently to undo the damage I have done to our relationship with that small, heroic nation.

“All this has also helped me understand that my continued effort to unilaterally reduce U.S, defense spending and cut the size of both our conventional and nuclear forces doesn’t make sense in world where Russia has dramatically increased the size of its military, and demonstrates an eagerness to use its expanded strength to invade its neighbors. I know now that I should reverse my prior stance of not opening up the federal government’s vast land holders for energy exploitation. It just isn’t a viable idea when Moscow holds Europe hostage to its gas pipelines.

“Seeing how much force, not rhetoric, shapes the world, it is obvious that something must be done to respond to China’s exponentially increasing military strength which it is enthusiastically using against both regional nations as well as America’s Pacific fleet. I intend to quickly but carefully formulate plans to address this growing crisis.

“Tomorrow is the 13th anniversary of 9/11. We live in a dangerous world. I wish I could ignore the danger, but that would be irresponsible. From now on, America will not hesitate to respond to threats in a competent, forceful manner.”

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.