Tehran’s progress in missile technology points to the regime growing from a regional power to a major international threat.
Iran’s missile technology advances, despite international sanctions. The Washington Free Beacon reports that “Iranian officials [have] announced … that the country is preparing to launch three new satellites into space, renewing concerns from defense experts about Iran’s ongoing research into long-range ballistic missile technology that could help it fire a nuclear weapon at Western nations.”
Despite the fact that the launch would violate United Nations restrictions against missile technology (2015 U.N. Resolution 2231 calling upon Iran not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons) the U.S. State Department has not opposed the launch.
Portions of Iran’s missile technology may soon rank among the world’s most advanced. Global Security reports that the nation is developing a supersonic maritime cruise missile. The nation has openly threatened the U.S. Navy, running mock attacks against its vessels, and engaging in training geared towards destroying American aircraft carriers.
According to the Iran Primer:
- “Iran has the largest and most diverse ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East. (Israel has more capable ballistic missiles, but fewer in number and type.) Most were acquired from foreign sources, notably North Korea. The Islamic Republic is the only country to develop a 2,000-km missile without first having a nuclear weapons capability.
- Iran is still dependent on foreign suppliers for key ingredients, components and equipment, but it should eventually be able to develop long-range missiles over time, including an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile or ICBM.
- The military utility of Iran’s current ballistic missiles is limited because of poor accuracy, so missiles are not likely to be decisive if armed with conventional, chemical or biological warheads. But Tehran could use its missiles as a political or psychological weapon to terrorize an adversary’s cities and pressure its government.
- Iran should not be able to strike Western Europe before 2017 or the United States before 2020—at the earliest.
- Iran’s space program, which includes the successful launch of a small, crude satellite into low earth orbit using the Safircarrier rocket, proves the country’s growing ambitions and technical prowess.”
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Kelsey Davenport, Greg Thielmann, and Daryl G. Kimball, writing in Arms Control.org note that “Iran’s recent ballistic missile tests…should not come as a surprise…There should be consequences for violations of Security Council resolutions…Despite the passage of UN Security Council Resolution 1929 in 2010, which prohibits Iran from testing nuclear-capable ballistic missiles, Tehran has carried out at least eight tests of medium-range systems in violation of resolution… Iran has repeatedly asserted that it does not and will not in the future accept UN Security Council-imposed limits on its ballistic missile program, which it says is necessary for its own self-defense.”
As noted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies “Iran has already made major progress in producing its own ballistic and cruise missiles. … it already has a major missile force, is working on larger boosters and solid fuel systems, and seems to be seeking to develop a precision strike capability for its conventionally armed missiles. It is also clear that Iran has already had major technology transfers from North Korea and that it has been able to use its extensive network of purchasing offices and cover organizations to buy critical missile technology.
- Iran is already a serious and growing missile power, has a steadily more sophisticated technology and production base, and has access to North Korean missile developments.
- It is far from clear that Iran will seek to buy entire missile systems from other countries eight years from the time the agreement goes into force. But it will be a steadily growing missile threat regardless of the nuclear arms agreement.
- Iran can probably acquire enough key technology through various cover organizations, under the guise of building its space program or by buying dual-use technology to make steady improvements in the accuracy and reliability of its missiles. The eight-year limit in the Iran nuclear arms agreement seems unlikely to have much impact on this aspect of Iranian capability.
- The is no valid way to estimate how soon Iran can shift from a missile force that largely lacks the accuracy and lethality to hit and destroy critical military and infrastructure targets with conventional warheads to gaining such a capability. It is possible—and perhaps even likely—that it will make major progress well before the eight-year limit expires.
- Iran already has considerable capability to use its other antiship missiles to carry out precision strikes against combat or commercial surface ships. Some are long range and land based. Iran’s missile threat needs to be viewed in broad terms, not simply in terms of the capability of its ballistic missiles to strike land targets.
- Iran already has armed Hezbollah with more accurate shorter-range missiles, as well as given it a much largely overall inventory it could use against Israel. It does not have to rely only on its own missile forces to present a more advanced threat.
- The Arab Gulf states—and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in particular—already have advanced strike fighters and are arming them with long-rang precision air-to-surface missiles. These forces are currently far more capable of doing critical damage to Iran’s key military and infrastructure targets than Iran’s current missile forces can inflict on the Arab Gulf states.
- The Arab Gulf states have only limited missile capabilities, and the Saudi ballistic missile force lacks the accuracy and lethality to do more than carry out retaliatory strikes on large area targets if Iran uses its missiles to attack Arab Gulf targets.”
The Times of Israel adds further worrisome news. Ally Russia has provided both nuclear technology and the most modern weaponry to the Tehran regime. Recently, a long-range missile system has been deployed to protect Iran’s Fordo nuclear facility, a strange move to make if the plant was only being used for civilian purposes. The S-300 weapon is the most advanced anti-aircraft and anti-missile defensive system in the world.