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Kerry violates Logan Act

A furor has arisen about former Secretary of State John Kerry’s meetings with Iranian government officials and others regarding the Trump Administration’s decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal. Kerry’s tenure as Secretary of State ended in January of 2017. The issue has been simmering for some time. The Boston Globe reported last May that Kerry met twice with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad to discuss the nuclear deal.

Inadvertently,  Iranian officials, describing those meetings, laid out the clear legal groundwork for an indictment under the Logan Act, which criminalizes negotiation by unauthorized persons with foreign governments having a dispute with the United States. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qassemi, quoted in Iran’s FARS news Agency “We don’t see the U.S. just as Mr. Trump; the United States is not just the current ruling administration and there are many figures who have different views on international and regional issues…”

Qassemi failed to understand that, indeed, the United States Government does have just one entity at a time that is legally permitted to conduct foreign affairs. Current Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, in an interview, stated: “what Secretary Kerry has done is unseemly and unprecedented. This is a former secretary of state engaged with the world’s largest state sponsor of terror, and according to him…You don’t have to take my word for it. … He was talking to them. He was telling them to wait out this administration. You can’t find precedent for this in U.S. history, and the secretary ought not – Secretary Kerry ought not to engage in that kind of behavior. It’s inconsistent with what foreign policy of the United States is, as directed by this President, and it is beyond inappropriate for him to be engaged in this. I remember, I saw him. I saw him in Munich at the Security Conference…”

President Trump concurred in Secretary Pompeo’s concerns: “John Kerry had illegal meetings with the very hostile Iranian Regime, which can only serve to undercut our great work to the detriment of the American people. He told them to wait out the Trump Administration! Was he registered under the Foreign Agents Registration Act? BAD!”

Raising further questions about Mr. Kerry’s actions is the revelation last April that Israeli undercover agents obtained 55,000 pages of documents and 183 CDs indicating that Iran lied about the extent of its nuclear program both before and after the Obama Administration’s deal with it, in which pallet loads of cash were transferred to the regime and sanctions were lifted in return for promises, without adequate verifications according to critics, to delay its legal ability to develop nuclear weapons.
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Unofficial dealings with Tehran are distasteful on a variety of levels, including the fact that it both supports terrorism abroad and gives support to a regime that oppresses its own population. The theocratic government routinely engages in horrific acts against many, and not just dissidents.  According to Human Rights Watch,“Under Iranian law, many nonviolent crimes, such as “insulting the Prophet,” apostasy, same-sex relations, adultery, and drug-related offenses, are punishable by death.

In January, the Spectator reported that “Shortly after the latest protests began, the country’s security forces, including the Ministry of Intelligence and Security, were seen photographing the events. In Iran, a regime camera is as deadly as a sniper’s sights. Only more delayed. As in 2009, the photographs will be used by the police to arrest demonstrators and also family members unconnected with the protests. This will be followed by the torture and rape of men and women in prison by the theocratic regime’s frontmen. As after the Green Revolution, there will in due course be show trials, forced recantations and executions. This is how a police state with four decades of experience goes about its business.”

Those protests were about a variety of causes, including repression at home, and the use of Iran’s new-found riches from the Obama Administration’s nuclear deal with Tehran not t benefit the Iranian people but to indulge in even greater levels of support for terrorism and regional wars.

Photo: Former Secretary of State John Kerry (U.S. State Department photo)

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Iran Protests Mark New Mideast Era

The significant demonstrations within Iran highlight the human rights shortcomings of former President Obama’s Mideast policy, which was centered around wooing Iran. Tragically, that strategy neither softened Tehran’s hatred of America, nor its intent to destroy U.S. allies in the region. Iran continues to support international terrorism and develop missiles capable of delivering nuclear or biological weapons of mass destruction.

The demonstrations appear to be widespread both geographically and in terms of popular support, even extending to the ruling Mullahs’ most significant regions of backing. Protests have occurred in cities such as Qom, which was the epicenter of the 1979 Islamist revolution and the base from which the current regime’s founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, destroyed Iran’s secular government in 1979.

The new perspective, openly critical of Iran’s leadership, brought about by the Trump Administration should not be overlooked in terms of its relevance to the confidence displayed by the Iranian protesters, who have been active in a half-dozen cities throughout the Islamist state.

The current U.S. State Department has been explicit in his comments about the Tehran regime for several months.  In December, the State Department noted that “Iran’s leaders have turned a wealthy country with a rich history and culture into an economically depleted rogue state whose chief exports are violence, bloodshed, and chaos. As President Trump has said, the longest-suffering victims of Iran’s leaders are Iran’s own people. The United States strongly condemns the arrest of peaceful protesters. We urge all nations to publicly support the Iranian people and their demands for basic rights and an end to corruption.”

This was a follow-up to comments made by Secretary Tillerson to Congress last June, which, in a sharp departure from the Obama approach, noted: “The regime in Iran continues activities and interventions that destabilize the Middle East: support for the brutal Assad regime, funding militias and foreign fighters in Iraq and Yemen that 2 undermine legitimate governments, and arming terrorist organizations like Hezbollah, which threaten our ally Israel…” Tillerson also supported those within Iran seeking change:  ‘those elements inside of Iran…would lead to a peaceful transition of government. Those elements are there, certainly as we know.’”
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The Iran Project reports that Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Bahram Qassemi has criticized the Trump Administration’s description of the Tehran regime as a “terrorist nation.”

The Obama Administration essentially traded away support for Iranian reformers and turned a blind eye towards Iranian financing of terrorists in return for negotiations leading up to the eventual nuclear deal with Tehran, an agreement which has come under considerable criticism due to its failure to restrain that nation’s current missile program or its eventual atomic arms buildup. Rep. Robert Pittinger (R-NC), Vice Chairman of the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Terrorism and Illicit Finance, and Chairman of the Congressional Task Force on Terrorism, believes that Obama’s “misguided agreement gives Iran a working path to continue developing nuclear weapons in just a few short years, while currently allowing Iran to continue development of long-range ballistic missiles that could reach anywhere in the world.”

Writing for the Jerusalem Post, Gil Hoffman reports that “Obama chose not to support the 2009 Iranian Green Protest Movement because he hoped to reach a deal with Iran on its nuclear weapons that he signed six years later, [Israel’s former ambassador to the U.S.] Deputy Minister Michael Oren … said…Obama’s failure to help Iranian protesters has been [criticized] …by Jewish Agency chairman and former Soviet dissident Natan Sharansky, who has called it the biggest failure to help human rights in modern history. … Oren notes that ‘The Obama administration’s lack of support for the Green Revolution was part of a pattern in which it did not hold Iran accountable for any provocation. It would seem it was part of a general approach that began in Obama’s first week in office in 2009 of wanting to reach a deal with Iran at pretty much any cost.’ Among the Iranian provocations ignored by the Obama administration, Oren listed the crackdown on the protesters, the kidnapping of Americans, having their missile boats provocatively approach American destroyers, trying to assassinate him and his Saudi counterpart in downtown Washington, the failure to follow through on a red line Obama imposed on Syrian dictator Bashar Assad using chemical weapons and Iranian-backed Hezbollah smuggling massive amounts of cocaine into the US.”

There is rising hope that real change could occur in Iran, bringing with it an entirely new dynamic in the Middle East.

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Bolton Outlines Plan to Exit Iran Nuke Deal

As the New York Analysis of Policy and Government outlined yesterday, many of the same policy errors that led to the current crisis with North Korea have been repeated in relations with Iran.  The Iran nuclear deal, even if Tehran fully complies with it, will allow the Islamic extremist state, which sponsors worldwide terrorism, to fully develop nuclear weapons within the near future.   Iran, in defiance of U.N. resolutions, and with a history of cooperation with North Korea, is developing the missile technology to launch atomic weapons to targets worldwide. Former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton believes that “Iran policy should not be frozen. The [Iran nuclear deal] JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action] is a threat to U.S. national security interests, growing more serious by the day.” He has outlined a specific proposal  “to decertify and abrogate the Iran nuclear deal.”

We provide Ambassador Boltons’ proposal in its entirety:

I Background:

The Trump Administration is required to certify to Congress every 90 days that Iran is complying with the July 2015 nuclear deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – JCPOA), and that this agreement is in the national security interest of the United States.1 While a comprehensive Iranian policy review is currently underway, America’s Iran policy should not be frozen. The JCPOA is a threat to U.S. national security interests, growing more serious by the day. If the President decides to abrogate the JCPOA, a comprehensive plan must be developed and executed to build domestic and international support for the new policy.

Under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act of 2015, the President must certify every 90 days:

(i) Iran is transparently, verifiably, and fully implementing the agreement, including all related technical or additional agreements;
(ii) Iran has not committed a material breach with respect to the agreement or, if Iran has committed a material breach, Iran has cured the material breach;
(iii) Iran has not taken any action, including covert activities, that could significantly advance its nuclear weapons program; and
(iv) Suspension of sanctions related to Iran pursuant to the agreement is—
(I) appropriate and proportionate to the specific and verifiable measures taken by Iran with respect to terminating its illicit nuclear program; and
(II) vital to the national security interests of the United States.

U.S. leadership here is critical, especially through a diplomatic and public education effort to explain a decision not to certify and to abrogate the JCPOA. Like any global campaign, it must be persuasive, thorough and accurate. Opponents, particularly those who participated in drafting and implementing the JCPOA, will argue strongly against such a decision, contending that it is reckless, ill-advised and will have negative economic and security consequences.

Accordingly, we must explain the grave threat to the US and our allies, particularly Israel. The JCPOA’s vague and ambiguous wording; its manifest imbalance in Iran’s direction; Iran’s significant violations; and its continued, indeed, increasingly, unacceptable conduct at the strategic level internationally demonstrate convincingly that the JCPOA is not in the national security interests of the United States. We can bolster the case for abrogation by providing new, declassified information on Iran’s unacceptable behavior around the world.

But as with prior Presidential decisions, such as withdrawing from the 1972 ABM Treaty, a new “reality” will be created. We will need to assure the international community that the U.S. decision will in fact enhance international peace and security, unlike the JCPOA, the provisions of which shield Iran’s ongoing efforts to develop deliverable nuclear weapons. The Administration should announce that it is abrogating the JCPOA due to significant Iranian violations, Iran’s unacceptable international conduct more broadly, and because the JCPOA threatens American national-security interests.

The Administration’s explanation in a “white paper” should stress the many dangerous concessions made to reach this deal, such as allowing Iran to continue to enrich uranium; allowing Iran to operate a heavy-water reactor; and allowing Iran to operate and develop advanced centrifuges while the JCPOA is in effect. Utterly inadequate verification and enforcement mechanisms and Iran’s refusal to allow inspections of military sites also provide important reasons for the Administration’s decision.

Even the previous Administration knew the JCPOA was so disadvantageous to the United States that it feared to submit the agreement for Senate ratification. Moreover, key American allies in the Middle East directly affected by this agreement, especially Israel and the Gulf states, did not have their legitimate interests adequately taken into account. The explanation must also demonstrate the linkage between Iran and North Korea.

We must also highlight Iran’s unacceptable behavior such as its role as the world’s central banker for international terrorism, including its directions and control over Hezbollah and its actions in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. The reasons Ronald Reagan named Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism in 1984 remain fully applicable today.

II Campaign Plan Components

There are four basic elements to the development and implementation of the campaign plan to decertify and abrogate the Iran nuclear deal:

  1. Early, quiet consultations with key playerssuch as the U.K., France, Germany, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, to tell them we are going to abrogate the deal based on outright violations and other unacceptable Iranian behavior, and seek their input.
  2. Prepare the documented strategic casefor withdrawal through a detailed white paper (including declassified intelligence as appropriate) explaining why the deal is harmful to U.S. national interests, how Iran has violated it, and why Iran’s behavior more broadly has only worsened since the deal was agreed.
  3. A greatly expanded diplomatic campaignshould immediately follow the announcement, especially in Europe and the Middle East, and we should ensure continued emphasis on the Iran threat as a top diplomatic and strategic priority.
  4. Develop and execute Congressional and public diplomacy effortsto build domestic and foreign support.

III Execution Concepts and Tactics

  1. Early, quiet consultations with key players

It is critical that a worldwide effort be initiated to inform our allies, partners, and others about Iran’s unacceptable behavior. While this effort could well leak to the press, it is nonetheless critical that we inform and consult with our allies and partners at the earliest possible moment, and, where appropriate, build into our effort their concerns and suggestions.

This quiet effort will articulate the nature and details of the violations, the type of relationship the US foresees in the future, thereby laying the foundation for imposing new sanctions barring the transfer of nuclear and missile technology or dual use technology to Iran. With Israel and selected others, we will discuss military options. With others in the Gulf region, we can also discuss means to address their concerns from Iran’s menacing behavior

The advance consultations could begin with private calls by the President, followed by more extensive discussions in capitals by senior Administration envoys. Promptly elaborating a comprehensive tactical diplomatic plan should be a high priority.

  1. Prepare the documented strategic case

The White House, coordinating all other relevant Federal agencies, must forcefully articulate the strong case regarding U.S. national security interests. The effort should produce a “white paper” that will be the starting point for the diplomatic and domestic discussion of the Administration decision to abrogate the JCPOA, and why Iran must be denied access to nuclear technology indefinitely. The white paper should be an unclassified, written statement of the Administration’s case, prepared faultlessly, with scrupulous attention to accuracy and candor. It should not be limited to the inadequacies of the JCPOA as written, or Iran’s violations, but cover the entire range of Iran’s continuing unacceptable international behavior.

Although the white paper will not be issued until the announcement of the decision to abrogate the JCPOA, initiating work on drafting the document is the highest priority, and its completion will dictate the timing of the abrogation announcement.

A thorough review and declassification strategy, including both U.S. and foreign intelligence in our possession should be initiated to ensure that the public has as much information as possible about Iranian behavior that is currently classified, consistent with protecting intelligence sources and methods. We should be prepared to “name names” and expose the underbelly of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard business activities and how they are central to the efforts that undermine American and allied national interests. In particular, we should consider declassifying information related to activities such as the Iran-North Korea partnership, and how they undermine fundamental interests of our allies and partners.

  1. Greatly expanded diplomatic campaign post-announcement

The Administration, through the NSC process, should develop a tactical plan that uses all available diplomatic tools to build support for our decision, including what actions we recommend other countries to take. But America must provide the leadership. It will take substantial time and effort and will require a “full court press” by U.S. embassies worldwide and officials in Washington to drive the process forward. We should ensure that U.S. officials fully understand the decision, and its finality, to help ensure the most positive impact with their interlocutors.

Our embassies worldwide should demarche their host governments with talking points (tailored as may be necessary) and data to explain and justify abrogating JCPOA. We will need parallel efforts at the United Nations and other appropriate multilateral organizations. Our embassies should not limit themselves to delivering the demarche, however, but should undertake extensive public diplomacy as well.

After explaining and justifying the decision to abrogate the deal, the next objective should be to recreate a new counter-proliferation coalition to replace the one squandered by the previous Administration, including our European allies, Israel, and the Gulf states. In that regard, we should solicit suggestions for imposing new sanctions on Iran and other measures in response to its nuclear and ballistic-missile programs, sponsorship of terrorism and generally belligerent behavior, including its meddling in Iraq and Syria.

Russia and China obviously warrant careful attention in the post-announcement campaign. They could be informed just prior to the public announcement as a courtesy, but should not be part of the pre-announcement diplomatic effort described above. We should welcome their full engagement to eliminate these threats, but we will move ahead with or without them.

Iran is not likely to seek further negotiations once the JCPOA is abrogated, but the Administration may wish to consider rhetorically leaving that possibility open in order to demonstrate Iran’s actual underlying intention to develop deliverable nuclear weapons, an intention that has never flagged.

In preparation for the diplomatic campaign, the NSC interagency process should review U.S. foreign assistance programs as they might assist our efforts. The DNI should prepare a comprehensive, worldwide list of companies and activities that aid Iran’s terrorist activities.

  1. Develop and execute Congressional and public diplomacy efforts

The Administration should have a Capitol Hill plan to inform Members of Congress already concerned about Iran, and develop momentum for imposing broad sanctions against Iran, far more comprehensive than the pinprick sanctions favored under prior Administrations. Strong congressional support will be critical. We should be prepared to link Iranian behavior around the world, including its relationship with North Korea, and its terrorist activities. And we should demonstrate the linkage between Iranian behavior and missile proliferation as part of the overall effort that justifies a national security determination that US interests would not be furthered with the JCPOA.

Unilateral US sanctions should be imposed outside the framework of Security Council Resolution 2231 so that Iran’s defenders cannot water them down; multilateral sanctions from others who support us can follow quickly.

The Administration should also encourage discussions in Congress and in public debate for further steps that might be taken to go beyond the abrogation decision. These further steps, advanced for discussion purposes and to stimulate debate should collectively demonstrate our resolve to limit Iran’s malicious activities and global adventurism. Some would relate directly to Iran; others would protect our allies and partners more broadly from the nuclear proliferation and terrorist threats, such as providing F-35s to Israel or THAAD resources to Japan. Other actions could include:

  • End all landing, docking rights for all Iranian aircraft and ships at key allied ports;
  • End all visas for Iranians, including so called “scholarly,” student, sports or other exchanges;
  • Demand payment w/set deadline on outstanding US federal court judgments against Iran for terrorism, including 9/11;
  • Announce U.S. support for the democratic Iranian opposition
  • Expedite delivery of bunker-buster bombs;
  • Announce U.S. support for Kurdish national aspirations, including Kurds in Iran, Iraq and Syria
  • Provide assistance to Balochis, Khuzestan Arabs, Kurds, others – also to internal resistance among labor unions, students, women’s groups
  • Actively organize opposition to Iranian political objectives in the UN

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IV Conclusion

This effort should be the Administration’s highest diplomatic priority, commanding all necessary time, attention and resources. We can no longer wait to eliminate the threat posed by Iran. The Administration’s justification of its decision will demonstrate to the world that we understand the threat to our civilization; we must act and encourage others to meet their responsibilities as well.

 

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Iran and North Korea: Two Sides of the Same Nuclear Crisis

The North Korean nuclear missile crisis, and the threat of Iran’s current advanced missiles and, due to the limitations of the Iran nuclear deal, the near future possession of atomic weapons may be two sides of the same dilemma.

A Congressional Research Service report has revealed that:  “…ballistic missile technology cooperation between the two is significant and meaningful…Iran has developed a close working relationship with North Korea on many ballistic missile programs, starting with acquisition of Scud missiles from North Korea in the 1980s…In 1992 testimony, then-Director of Central Intelligence (DCI) Robert Gates identified Iran and Syria as recipients of North Korean Scud missiles. In 1993, then-DCI R. James Woolsey provided more detail, stating that North Korea had sold … Iran extended range Scud C missiles and apparently agreed to sell other forms of missile technology. .. North Korea’s ongoing export of ballistic missiles provided a qualitative increase in capabilities to countries such as Iran. Second, Iran was using North Korean ballistic missile goods and services to achieve its goal of self-sufficiency in the production of medium range ballistic missiles. Third, Iran’s acquisition of missile systems or key missile-related components, including potentially significant inputs of space launch vehicle technology and support, could significantly improve Iran’s ability to produce an ICBM. In the latter 2000s, the IC continued to assess that North Korean cooperation with Iran’s ballistic missile programs was ongoing and significant…Iran has likely exceeded North Korea’s ability to develop, test, and build ballistic missiles. But Tehran may, to some extent, still rely on Pyongyang for certain materials for producing Iranian ballistic missiles.”

A Strategic Sentinel study first reported by the Voice of America noted that “…reviews of satellite images suggest North Korea may possess another missile launching site at a village once suspected of having nuclear facilities. The images… exposed a missile silo in mountainous Geumchang-ri, North Pyongan province, where the U.S. intelligence community said in the late 1990s there was a nuclear weapons site…The silo, an underground chamber used for storing and firing missiles, seems analogous to the one at a missile base in Tabriz, Iran…”

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In April, U.S. Secretary of State Tillerson stated: “Iran’s nuclear ambitions are a grave risk to international peace and security… With its latest test of a medium-range ballistic missile, Iran’s continued development and proliferation of missile technology is in defiance of UN Security Council Resolution 2231. nd it has previously stated it will conduct a second test flight of the Simorgh space-launch vehicle, which would put it closer to an operational intercontinental ballistic missile.Any discussion of Iran is incomplete without mentioning the JCPOA. [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action] The JCPOA fails to achieve the objective of a non-nuclear Iran; it only delays their goal of becoming a nuclear state. This deal represents the same failed approach of the past that brought us to the current imminent threat we face from North Korea. The Trump administration has no intention of passing the buck to a future administration on Iran. The evidence is clear. Iran’s provocative actions threaten the United States, the region, and the world.”

In July, the Jerusalem Post  stated that “German intelligence reports emerged in June and July revealing the Iranian regime’s continued pursuit of nuclear weapons and missile technology in defiance of international sanctions and UN resolutions… According to the German state of Hamburg’s intelligence agency: ‘there is no evidence of a complete about-face in Iran’s atomic polices in 2016’ [after the Islamic Republic signed the JCPOA accord with world powers in 2015, designed to curb Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief]. Iran sought missile carrier technology necessary for its rocket program.”

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Obama Sends Cash to Iran

The Obama Administration’s continuously bizarre relationship with Iran has raised logical, political and now legal questions. While the President’s term is nearly over, Hillary Clinton has promised to continue the president’s Mideast policies, and that makes the need for probing, honest answers an urgent requirement.

In a move that would be more appropriate for a poorly written made for TV movie, the White House sent a plane filled with cash to Tehran, in what was obviously a cash-for-hostage deal. According to the Wall Street Journal “The Obama administration secretly organized an airlift of $400 million worth of cash to Iran that coincided with the January release of four Americans detained in Tehran, according to U.S. and European officials and congressional staff briefed on the operation afterward. Wooden pallets stacked with euros, Swiss francs and other currencies were flown into Iran on an unmarked cargo plane, according to these officials. The U.S. procured the money from the central banks of the Netherlands and Switzerland….”

The White House maintains that the cash is the first installment of a settlement regarding a cancelled arms deal with the deposed Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, but the explanation fails to acknowledge that the matter remains in dispute, under review by an international tribunal in The Hague.

The use of cash, as opposed to more conventional international payment means, allows Tehran to provide more clandestine support for terrorists across the globe, and continue its support for Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, who has committed numerous and extreme crimes against humanity, against his own citizenry. Al-Assad is also supported by Moscow.

This strange course of events continues a pattern of deceiving both Congress and the American people concerning the Obama Administration’s relationship with Iran, the leaders of which continue to enthusiastically chant “death to America” numerous times throughout each year.

An administration official, Ben Rhodes, who served as deputy national security advisor, has openly bragged, as noted in a New York Times article, about his ability to deceive the U.S. about the much-criticized nuclear deal. As noted by the Washington Times,  “It seems the goal behind the Iran deal was to extricate the United States from long standing alliances in the Middle East, including Israel. This was done to be able to close the Iran nuclear agreement.”

As serious as that deception was, it doesn’t cover the full extent of the Administration’s intensive lying about its relations with Iran.

Fox News  has found that a State Department official,in a stunning admission, acknowledged Wednesday that an official intentionally deleted several minutes of video footage from a 2013 press briefing, where a top spokeswoman seemed to acknowledge misleading the press over the Iran nuclear deal. ‘There was a deliberate request [to delete the footage] – this wasn’t a technical glitch,’ State Department spokesman John Kirby said Wednesday, in admitting that an unidentified official had a video editor “excise” the segment… Kirby said someone had censored the video intentionally.

There was, and is, more than ample reason for the White House and the State Department to believe that the public and Congress would object to the actual terms of the nuclear deal.

House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Ca.) notes: “The more we find out about the Iran nuclear deal, the worse it looks. Each new day Congress reviews this deal, we discover more information and more reasons why this deal is simply unacceptable:”

  1. Though the deal was originally being negotiated to keep Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, in its final form the agreement would allow just that when it sunsetsin 10-15 years.
  2. This deal will accelerate regional nuclear proliferation. Saudi leaders for instance have said that this deal is worse than the nuclear pact former President Bill Clinton made with North Korea.
  3. Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu saidthis deal will give Iran “hundreds of billions of dollars to fuel their terror and military regime.”
  4. Sanctions relief isn’t tied to Iran complying with the deal, meaning Iran gets massive amounts of reliefbefore they’ve demonstrated strict adherence.

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  5. And the money can’t be taken back once Iran gets it.
  6. That relief can be used to expand Iran’s malign and destabilizing influence in the region that hasexacerbated sectarian conflict.
  7. The money can also be used to further fund Iran’s terrorist proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah, Assad, and Houthis in Yemen.
  8. In fact, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, saidthat Iran will not change its anti-American policy.
  9. To enforce the deal, world powers must first know if Iran violated the deal but that is an unclear process that can be delayed for weekswhile Iran would be able to hide and obfuscate banned activities.
  10. Iran doesn’t have to come cleanon its past nuclear activity, leaving world powers little ability to verify future illegal advances.
  11. Iran’s foreign minister interprets the deal very differentlythan the Obama Administration does.
  12. For example, he believes that the scale of foreign investments would effectively prevent the world from re-imposing sanctionson Iran, making the “snapback” provision of the deal effectively meaningless.
  13. He also said that Iran could deny inspectors accessto nuclear and military sites under the deal.
  14. He also said that Iran would not be violating the deal if it broke the UN resolution prohibiting the purchase of conventional armsand missiles because the arms embargo is implicitly out of the scope of the nuclear agreement.
  15. Even if Iran adheres to the arms embargo, the embargo is lifted in 5 years, giving Iran access not only to conventional arms to further fuel terrorism and their drive for regional dominancy.
  16. In 8 years, the missile ban will be removed, allowing Iran to acquire missiles that could carry nuclear payloads.
  17. The Obama Administration pushed for the UN to vote on the dealin an attempt to jam Americans and their elected representatives before they’ve even had a chance to review the deal.
  18. Iran will be allowed to conduct advanced research and developmentthat will pave the way for centrifuges that are modern and efficient. They will be able to enrich huge amounts of Uranium that will shorten their breakout time for a bomb.
  19. The deal also provides sanctions reliefto Iranian military leader Qasem Soleimani, leader of the elite Quds force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, who is a designated terrorist who is responsible for the deaths of at least 500 U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan.
  20. On top of that, the deal lifts sanctionson two Iranian atomic scientists who worked on Iran’s illegal nuclear program and a nuclear proliferator who has previously helped smuggle nuclear components.
  21. The murderous Syrian President Bashar al-Assad calledthis deal a “great victory” and congratulated Iran on their achievement.

It’s not just weapons deals that has raised eyebrows when it comes to the odd relationship between Mr. Obama and Iran’s harshly anti-U.S. leaders.

While the Obama Administration supported almost all of the “Arab Spring” movements, including that which replaced the pro-U.S. regime of Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak with that of the Moslem Brotherhood’s Mohammed Morsi, it noticeably failed to support the one portion of the Arab Spring movement that would have been in America’s interest, the “Green Revolution” in Iran.

As noted by the Atlantic “One of the prime missed opportunities of the Obama Administration came during the Iranian “Green Revolution” uprisings of 2009. The President could have advanced American moral and strategic interests by standing up more boldly for the young demonstrators protesting totalitarianism…” The President turned his back on the movement, strengthening the control of one of the most rabidly anti-American governments in existence.

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Is the Iran Nuclear Deal Already Dead?

Is the Iran nuclear deal already dead?

Iran apparently violated a Security Council resolution in October when it tested a medium range missile. In December, it again conducted a prohibited test.

Some Congressional leaders believe that the tests violate at least one of the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 countries, and indicate that Tehran has no serious intention of  fulfilling its obligations under the terms of the deal. President Obama has refused, however, to re-impose sanctions.

The White House continues to advocate its view of the agreements benefits:

“Iran would need two key elements to construct a uranium bomb: enough highly enriched uranium to produce enough material to construct a uranium bomb and tens of thousands of centrifuges. Currently, Iran has a uranium stockpile to create 8 to ten nuclear bombs. But thanks to this nuclear deal, Iran must reduce its stockpile of uranium by 98%, and will keep its level of uranium enrichment at 3.67% — significantly below the enrichment level needed to create a bomb.

“Iran also needs tens of thousands of centrifuges to create highly enriched uranium for a bomb. Right now, Iran has nearly 20,000 centrifuges between their Natanz and Fordow uranium enrichment facilities. But under this deal, Iran must reduce its centrifuges to 6,104 for the next ten years. No enrichment will be allowed at the Fordow facility at all, and the only centrifuges Iran will be allowed to use are their oldest and least efficient models.”

Despite the President’s reassurances, however, the deficiencies in the deal are deeply troubling to many U.S. lawmakers, international observers, and arms control experts. In a stunning report entitled “A Nuclear Deal With Iran: Managing the Consequences,” a task force formed by the American Foreign Policy Council   (AFPC)  concludes that:

“[A] broad spectrum of national security practitioners, military experts, scientists and analysts concur that the deal is woefully deficient in several respects. The list of these deficiencies is long. Some, like significant shortfalls in verification and monitoring, preclude confidence that Iran will abide by the terms of the agreement in the future, or that the international community will know promptly if it does not. Likewise of concern is that the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action] weakens the global nonproliferation regime by setting a precedent for what counts as a “peaceful” nuclear program that will have effects well beyond the Middle East.”
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The difference in opinion comes down to this: The White House likes the deal because, on paper, it delays Iran’s acquisition of nuclear arms for many years. Critics state that, based on precedent and current actions, it is clear that Iran has no intention of living up to its obligations under the deal, and will gain billions in funds it can use both to further weapons development and support terrorist activities.

This excerpt from AFPC’s report summarizes what, upon analysis, are the very real and substantial concerns about the nuclear deal: JCPOA, upon implementation, will empower a range of Iranian activities deeply inimical to the strategic interests and security of the United States and its allies and international partners.

These strategic, political and economic problems will include:

Expanded Iranian resources. Under the parameters of the JCPOA, Iran is poised to receive massive sanctions relief and unfrozen assets in the near term: an estimated $100 billion or more after a perfunctory six-month verification period. The scale of this economic assistance is staggering. It represents a quarter or more of Iran’s total annual GDP, which amounted to $415 billion in 2014 …The proportional impact of such relief to the Islamic Republic is comparable to an infusion into the American economy (currently estimated at $16.7 trillion) of roughly $4.2 trillion, approximately five times the economic stimulus that stabilized the U.S. financial sector following the 2008 global economic crisis.

Moreover, these funds will invariably be augmented by the benefits of post-sanctions trade between Iran and potential trading partners in Europe and Asia, which now appear eager to expand their economic ties to the Islamic Republic. White House officials have expressed their hope that its unprecedented windfall will be used by the Iranian regime overwhelmingly to improve domestic conditions and strengthen its economy. Even if Iran does spend the lion’s share of sanctions relief in this fashion, however, the sheer volume of funds to be unblocked means that the Iranian regime will nonetheless be able to significantly augment its expenditures on several fronts of concern to U.S. strategic interests.

Terrorism financing. The Islamic Republic, which was first formally designated as a state sponsor of terrorism by the Reagan administration in 1984, still maintains its status as the world’s most active backer of terrorist groups. The scope of this material support is extensive, estimated by the U.S. Treasury Department several years ago to be in the billions of dollars annually.

More recently, a study by the Congressional Research Service found Iranian spending on these activities to range from $3.5 billion to $16 billion annually. These expenses include, inter alia, between $100 and $200 million per annum to Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia; tens of millions of dollars annually to the Palestinian Hamas movement and; the entire annual operating budget of the smaller Palestinian Islamic Jihad (estimated at some $2 million). That these expenditures have continued unabated, despite the growing adverse impact of U.S. and international sanctions on the Iranian economy in recent years, illustrate that terrorism support – euphemistically termed “export of the revolution” by the Iranian regime – represents a cardinal regime priority. With extensive sanctions relief now on the horizon, it would be prudent for policymakers to expect this support to grow significantly…

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Bipartisan Concern over Iran Nuclear Deal

21 Democrat Senators and 35 of their Republican colleagueshave written to the President  asking him to act against Iran’s nuclear-capable missile tests, a violation, they maintain, of the nuclear deal. The Democrats’ letter, quoted in The Hill http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/263686-senate-dems-push-obama-to-act-on-iran-missile-tests states:

“Such action is essential to make clear to Iran’s leaders that there will be consequences for future violations of UN Security Council Resolutions and that the United States reserves the right under the [nuclear agreement] to take unilateral action in response to this and other significant actions by Iran in the areas of ballistic missile development, terrorism and human rights,”

The President has refused. The actions highlight the problems with the agreement between Iran and the P5+1 countries. The most comprehensive analysis of the controversial deal was that provided by the American Foreign Policy Council. http://www.afpc.org/ We conclude our two-part summary of that report http://www.afpc.org/publication_listings/viewPolicyPaper/2926 today.

Anticipating the Consequences

There are indications that the Islamic Republic has already begun to ramp up its defense expenditures… it has initiated major new procurement talks with arms suppliers such as Russia and China, and is now poised to acquire new aircraft, air defenses and components. Such acquisitions will lead, over time, to a significant strengthening of Iran’s ability to project power into its immediate periphery, as well as its capacity to threaten and/or challenge its strategic rivals. Even before then, however, the perception of growing Iranian military power will begin to have pronounced effects on the geopolitical balance of power in the greater Middle East.
A new rogue state patron. Although it has received comparatively little attention to date, one of the most significant consequences of the economic windfall inherent in the JCPOA will be its impact on the foreign allies and strategic partners of the Islamic Republic. This list includes the “Bolivarian” nations of Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador in Latin America, the Stalinist regime of Kim Jong-un in North Korea, and the dictatorship of Omar el-Bashir in the Sudan, among others – all of which currently maintain significant political, economic and military ties to the Iranian regime. …An associated danger is the potential provision by Iran of strategic assistance to other aspiring nuclear weapons states; by allowing Iran to keep a large enrichment program, the JCPOA increases the risk that Iran could transfer enrichment technology and materials to other states or even non-state actors.

Stepped up Iranian proliferation. President Obama has publicly asserted that the JCPOA closes of “all pathways” by which the Iranian regime can acquire a nuclear capability. This, however, is not accurate. The agreement concerns itself overwhelmingly with the overt means by which Iran might develop a nuclear capability: by building one. A parallel, covert “pathway” – involving procurement of nuclear-related components and materiel from foreign suppliers – remains open. As such, the practical effect of the JCPOA, once implemented, will be to facilitate covert procurement by the Islamic Republic.

Moreover, given the expanded resources soon to be at Iran’s disposal, its purchasing power for such activities will expand exponentially. Willing foreign suppliers exist at both the state and non-state level. At the state level, Iran’s ongoing – and extensive – strategic alliance with the North Korean regime poses considerable future risks, insofar as nuclear and ballistic missile cooperation between the two countries has a long history and is ongoing.

Similarly, multiple private entities involved in Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs continue to operate within the People’s Republic of China, and have been estimated to provide as much as 90 percent of the necessary “goods and technology” for both. As such, nonproliferation experts have warned that “[t]here is considerable risk that Tehran could covertly procure nuclear materials from Chinese brokers and circumvent a nuclear deal by secretly creating a new parallel nuclear program.” At the same time, Iran will have both greater incentive and greater capability to engage in “offshore” development of a nuclear capability, relying on its existing strategic partnerships abroad to continue nuclear development outside of territorial Iran. Here, too, Iran’s contacts with North Korea represent a source of serious concern, with one or more of the nuclear tests carried out by the DPRK over the past decade believed to have been carried out at least in part to test Iranian capabilities.

A regional proliferation cascade. In the late 2000s, worries over Iran’s burgeoning nuclear capability had prompted the beginnings of a regional proliferation “cascade,” as vulnerable regional states moved ahead with the acquisition of strategic counterweights to Iran’s emerging nuclear capability… Thirteen other countries in the greater Middle East were in various stages of nuclear acquisition, with most doing so specifically in response to Iran’s nuclear effort… growing uncertainty over the regional strategic balance in the Middle East – coupled with fears of Iran’s imperial ambitions – has revived the interest of regional powers in acquiring their own nuclear deterrent. Most prominently, Saudi Arabia, Iran’s long-time ideological rival in the Islamic world, has made clear that, should Iran move toward the creation of a nuclear weapon, “we would do that also…” Other countries can be expected to follow suit, given both the inherent flaws in the JCPOA and the inability of the Obama administration to provide adequate security guarantees against the emergence of a nuclear Iran…

A slower, but stronger, Iranian nuclear program

The particulars of the JCPOA confirm that the initial objective of Western diplomacy with Iran – the “rollback” of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear infrastructure – has not been attained. To the contrary, the existing terms of the agreement will actually help Iran to develop a stronger nuclear program over time…

Managing the Fallout

The foregoing makes abundantly clear that passage of the JCPOA does not signal an end to the Iranian challenge confronting the United States, but rather a new – and arguably even more challenging – phase in that contest. America’s strategy must change accordingly, and should do so in the following areas:

Tracking Iranian money The United States and its partners…need to focus on how to prevent post-agreement Iranian money from migrating into the coffers of Hezbollah and other terrorist actors or from fueling expanded nuclear procurement and proliferation…

Blacklisting the IRGC With the exception of its Supreme Leader, there is no more important political actor in Iran than the regime’s clerical army, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (Sepāh-e Pāsdārān-e Enqelāb-e Eslāmi). … it will therefore emerge as a major beneficiary of any sanctions relief received by the Islamic Republic, as well as becoming disproportionately enriched by the resumption of trade between Iran and potential trading partners in Europe and Asia. To limit this benefit, the United States should move resolutely to limit the IRGC’s ability to access the international economy…

Ensuring Iranian compliance
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Iran’s anticipated violations of the JCPOA in the near future are not likely to include an obvious “sprint” to the nuclear finish line in the form of major, sustained violations of the terms of the deal. Rather, it is far more likely to “inch out,” testing the resolve of Western nations to hold it to account over numerous small infractions… Indeed, such violations are believed to be occurring already…

By minimizing such instances as immaterial and defending Iran against criticism from the press, the White House has made clear that … does not currently possess the tools to exact tactical penalties from the Islamic Republic for minor infractions without torpedoing the nuclear deal as a whole. And because it does not, the White House is incentivized to turn a blind eye to instances of Iranian cheating.

Enhancing deterrence against Iran

…the danger of a breakout remains a real one. Moreover, the danger of an Iranian “dash” for the bomb becomes more acute as we move further into the future, and Iran’s nuclear program increases in both sophistication and maturity. The Obama administration has expressed its support for means of deterring Iran “from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon,” … Yet it so far has not undertaken concrete steps to communicate to the Iranian regime that it is prepared to do so

As former Administration offcials Dennis Ross and David Petraeus have outlined, one measure that the United States could take would be to provide Israel with ordinance capable of destroying Iranian nuclear facilities: Beyond bolstering Israel’s ability to act unilaterally to prevent Iranian “breakout,” however, the United States also needs to articulate a clear, unambiguous deterrence posture regarding its readiness to use resolute force to prevent Iran’s acquisition of an offensive nuclear capability, either during the lifespan of the JCPOA or afterwards. Iran must be put on notice in concrete terms that the United States is prepared to prevent the emergence of a nuclear-armed Iran by any means necessary.

Intrinsic to this declaratory posture is a recapitalization of American defense capabilities. The U.S. military now finds itself at its lowest force strength since the end of World War II. Existing budgetary constraints have severely impacted both the readiness and power projection capabilities of American forces. This state of affairs calls into question the ability of the United States to credibly assure the protection of allies in the event of hostilities with Iran, or undertake unilateral military action against the Islamic Republic in the event of material breach of the JCPOA or some other casus belli. A recapitalization of the U.S. military writ large, including a strengthening of the nuclear triad, must become a national priority at the earliest possible time.

Strengthening missile defense capabilities

Conspicuous in their absence from the terms of the JCPOA are meaningful restrictions on the size and sophistication of Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal…

To guard against this threat, the United States will need to significantly expand and strengthen its investments in Middle Eastern missile defense capabilities….

Preserving Iran’s democratic potential

Already ranked among the world’s most repressive regimes, the past several years have seen a deepening crackdown on human rights, freedom of expression and political choice within the Islamic Republic…

Domestic conditions within Iran should be of significant concern to American policymakers. The Islamic Republic’s nearly 82 million-person population is overwhelmingly youthful, educated and westward-looking. While Iran’s current clerical regime has made no secret of its ongoing animus to the United States, notwithstanding the passage of the JCPOA, this “other” Iran holds out the promise of a more durable and harmonious relationship with the West. But the JCPOA imperils Iran’s democratic potential, because it strengthens the current Iranian government at the expense of its captive population… In response, Congress will need to act more resolutely than ever before, through both public statements and concrete legislation, to shine a spotlight on Iran’s human rights abuses and to penalize the Iranian government for its repression of democracy at home.

Protecting American outreach…in the wake of the JCPOA, there is a danger that America’s voice will be muted – if not silenced outright… While the White House has given no indication that it is prepared to do so, Congress should be prepared for this to emerge as a demand of the Iranian regime and take proactive steps to preserve and ultimately to strengthen the ability of America’s public diplomacy outlets to communicate with the Iranian people – even as it continues to press for a robust, coherent strategy to underpin this outreach. Simultaneously, the United States needs to increase its investment in Internet freedom in Iran.

THE ROAD AHEAD

While a nuclear deal with Iran has now been struck, the broader strategic challenge that Iran poses to American interests and allies persists. Resolute American action is necessary to prevent Iranian cheating during the time that the JCPOA is in force, an Iranian nuclear breakout thereafter, and adverse effects stemming from Iran’s acquisition of the extensive sanctions relief inherent in the agreement. Currently, the United States lacks both the capacity and credibility to respond to the potential consequences of the nuclear agreement with Iran. We believe that altering this status quo must become a priority for U.S. lawmakers in the months and years ahead.

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Why is the White House so intent on passage of the flawed Iran deal?

The White House’s intense push to have the Iran nuclear agreement ratified raises significant questions as to what Mr. Obamas goals are.

There is little doubt that the deal is significantly flawed, from the perspective of those seeking to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Due to that reality and statements by Iranian leaders indicating they will not uphold their end of the bargain, several senior and influential Democrats, close allies of the President, have chosen not to endorse the measure.

Mr. Obama’s unusually keen desire to enact the pact extends to the legally questionable tactic of not labelling it a treaty, which it clearly is, in order to avoid the Constitutional requirement of gaining a two-thirds majority in the Senate.  (Black’s Law Dictionary defines a “treaty”as “A compact made between two or more independent nations with a view to the public welfare.” There is little legal reason to define the Iran agreement as anything other than a treaty.)

The most optimistic interpretation and fulfillment of the agreement’s provision still allows Iran to develop nuclear weapons and the missiles to launch them within the relatively near future.  Given the Ayatollah Khamenei’s recent pledge to wipe out Israel within 25 years, that alone should induce the White House to pull back. Instead, working with Senate Democrats who remain allied with the President on the matter, procedural steps are being formulated to filibuster against any resolution of opposition to it.

Indisputably, Iran will obtain an extraordinary financial windfall as a result of the measure. Estimates are that $150 billion will be released in just the first six months. Unfortunately, nothing in the deal prevents the use of those funds to finance Tehran’s robust and far-flung support for terrorism. Of particular note for America is the fact that a  portion of those terrorist activities occur within its own hemisphere, as outlined several weeks ago by the Menges organization’s America’s Report. http://www.theamericasreport.com/2015/08/11/dangerous-military-project-supported-by-iran-likely-to-be-strengthened-as-iran-obtains-sanctions-relief/.

Of course, Iran’s main focus remains within the Islamic world. The House Armed Services Committee (HASC) https://armedservices.house.gov/ outlined Tehran’s terrorist activities:

“Iran’s support of rogue regimes, proxies, terrorists, and criminal organizations is one of its main strategies to support its revolutionary ideology and increase its dominance in the Middle East.  Malign activities are focused on Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, Bahrain and Syria; as well as illicit activities in Europe, Asia, Latin America, and the United States. The intent of these activities is to assert Iran’s influence over certain governments in the Middle East, and challenge Israel and Western countries’ influence and dominance.

Network of Terrorist Groups, Criminal Entities, and Insurgent Organizations are active in:

Afghanistan: Iran uses cash payments to support political candidates in Afghanistan.  Iran also supports the Taliban with cash and arms to counter U.S. and Western influence in Afghanistan.
Bahrain: Iran supports Shia factions in opposition to the Government of Bahrain.
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Israel and Lebanon: Lebanese Hezbollah – designated a Foreign Terrorist Organization since 1997 – is Iran’s primary proxy organization, where it takes advantage of “millions of dollars, training, weapons and modern equipment” provided by Iran.  Iran continues to supply Hezbollah with a range of weapons to include modern artillery, anti-ship and anti-tank capabilities, and up to 100,000 rockets and missiles with the objective of targeting Israel.  Iran also arms, funds, and trains Hamas as a proxy to attack Israel with both rockets and missile technology it supplies.

Iraq: Iran also uses cash payments to fund political candidates in Iraq. Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) trains, equips, and supports Shia militias.  IRGC Quds Force commanders support many Shiite militias in operations in Iraq.  Many of these are the same Shia militias that killed US military service members in Iraq- numerous U.S. military personnel were casualties in Iraq due to Iranian activities, including high-powered improvised explosive devices.

Saudi Arabia: Iranian-supported Hezbollah maintains political and military wings in Saudi Arabia where their commander, Ahmed al-Mughassil, masterminded the 1996 Khobar Towers attack that killed 19 U.S. Service Members.  Iran has also launched cyber-attacks against Saudi Arabia.

Syria: As Iran’s proxy, Hezbollah provides military aid and advises the Assad regime.  Iran also directly employs its IRGC forces in Syria.

Yemen: Iran continues its support of the Shiite Houthi rebellion in Yemen with arms and other aid.

United States: In addition to the Iranian-backed plot to assassinate the Saudi Ambassador in Washington D.C., Lebanese Hezbollah, a proxy terrorist organization of Iran, fundraises in the United States.  The largest Hezbollah fundraising scheme – that raised millions for the group – was broken up in the United States in 2002 as part of Operation Smokescreen.

Cyber Activities: Iran’s leaders have said the nuclear deal will have no effect on malign activities, including cyber.  Iran’s cyber activity and investments are designed to provide an asymmetric advantage for the regime.  Iran reportedly conducted cyber operations in 2012 against Saudi Arabia’s national oil company, Saudi Aramco, and erased data on 75 percent of the company computers.  A recent report by the Norse Corporation and AEI uncovered an extensive dark-web of cyber-attacks stemming from Iran.  The report detailed infrastructure dedicated to malicious cyber activity against foreign targets, including the United States, which escalated by over 100 percent during the period of the Norse study.

Ballistic Missiles: Under the deal, Iran’s ballistic missile program, including ICBM development, will become an even greater threat.  Iran will be allowed to maintain the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the Middle East.  Iran built this capability despite a “crippling” sanctions regime.  Disregarding warnings from Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Martin Dempsey that “under no circumstances should we relieve pressure on Iran relative to ballistic missile capabilities and arms trafficking,” the Iran deal ends restrictions there were on missile development and testing within 8 years and allows Iran to cooperate with Russia, China, and North Korea to more quickly field more dangerous ballistic missiles with ever greater ranges. ”

The lop-sided (in favor of Iran) nature of the deal, Iran’s apparent intention not to comply with the generally understood terms of several provisions, and the dangerous use of released funds raise questions concerning the White House’s intense support for the measure.

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Iran deal is deeply flawed

The nuclear deal with Iran is deeply flawed.

Iran is already a signatory to the nuclear nonproliferation pact, an international obligation it has chosen to ignore. It has failed to report key portions of its atomic program as required by that treaty. What, then, are the prospects for compliance with the current deal?

According to the White House,

“Iran would need two key elements to construct a uranium bomb: tens of thousands of centrifuges and enough highly enriched uranium to produce enough material to construct a uranium bomb. “There are currently two uranium enrichment facilities in the country: the Natanz facility and the Fordow facility.

“Let’s take a look at Iran’s uranium stockpile first. Currently, Iran has a uranium stockpile to create 8 to ten nuclear bombs.“But thanks to this nuclear deal, Iran must reduce its stockpile of uranium by 98%, and will keep its level of uranium enrichment at 3.67% — significantly below the enrichment level needed to create a bomb. “Iran also needs tens of thousands of centrifuges to create highly enriched uranium for a bomb. Right now, Iran has nearly 20,000 centrifuges between their Natanz and Fordow facilities. But under this deal, Iran must reduce its centrifuges to 6,104 for the next ten years. No enrichment will be allowed at the Fordow facility at all, and the only centrifuges Iran will be allowed to use are their oldest and least efficient models…

“As it stands today, Iran has a large stockpile of enriched uranium and nearly 20,000 centrifuges, enough to create 8 to 10 bombs. If Iran decided to rush to make a bomb without the deal in place, it would take them 2 to 3 months until they had enough weapon-ready uranium (or highly enriched uranium) to build their first nuclear weapon. Left unchecked, that stockpile and that number of centrifuges would grow exponentially, practically guaranteeing that Iran could create a bomb—and create one quickly – if it so chose.

Not to mention, when the patents buy viagra pill of the ED sufferers. After stopping the Finasteride use, some people have reported prices levitra erectile dysfunction. Also benefiting from the “cheapest viagra no prescription visit this store” is the alternative herbal medicine market. Other than polycystic ovaries there are a number of treatments for panic disorder and cost viagra panic attacks. “This deal removes the key elements needed to create a bomb and prolongs Iran’s breakout time from 2-3 months to 1 year or more if Iran broke its commitments. Importantly, Iran won’t garner any new sanctions relief until the IAEA confirms that Iran has followed through with its end of the deal. And should Iran violate any aspect of this deal, the U.N., U.S., and E.U. can snap the sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy back into place.”

The key phrase of the White House statement: Under the deal, it would only take Iran a year to build a weapon. In return for extending the breakout period from three months to twelve, Tehran gets about a half-trillion dollars in assets. A great deal for Iran, a bad one for the rest of the world.  The lack of unrestrained inspection rights calls into question the intentions of Tehran to adhere to the agreement.

Rep. Mac Thornberry (R-Tx), chair of the House Armed Service Committee, “”If Iran decides to build a nuclear weapon, this deal only extends the timeline for Iran to break-out by 9 months – and that assumes that the agreement is being implemented precisely by all parties, which is dubious when we know Iran failed to adhere to the terms of the interim deal.  In exchange, Iran will receive billions in sanctions relief, a windfall to pursue its aggressive, destabilizing agenda in the region and beyond.  Whatever the claimed gains we get from this deal, it clearly does not outweigh the risks to the security in the region and to the United States and its interests.”

Clearly, Iran was motivated to come to the bargaining table in order to gain relief from sanctions and to have its asserts unfrozen. The Jerusalem Post quotes Israeli Education Minister Naftali Bennet’s view: “Western citizens who get up for another day at work or school, are not aware of the fact that about half a trillion dollars has been transferred to the hands of a terrorist superpower, the most dangerous country in the world, who has promised the destruction of nations and peoples.” His views were echoed by Deputy Foreign Minister Tzipi Hotovely, who stated that “The nuclear accord agreed upon in Vienna is a ‘historical capitulation of the West to the axis of evil led by Iran.”

Even under the best of circumstances, including full Iranian cooperation in inspections, the nation will essentially, after a decade, emerge unrestrained and stronger than ever. Rather than mandate an absolute right of inspection, a process is established that would allow Tehran to move key material around while a decision is pending on allowing a military base inspection to move forward.

The U.S. Congress has 60 days to review the agreement, but President Obama has stated that he would veto a verdict he disapproves of.