Internal Revenue Scandal – USA Gov Policy

A long expected political earthquake has struck Washington, D.C.

Within a matter of days, several key administration figures and supporters have either resigned or been raked over the coals by Republicans. The GOP is belatedly reacting to incidents of scandal and extreme behavior on the part of the White House’s appointees and allies, and the President himself.

Responses against each of the individuals, including Attorney General Eric Holder, Department of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius, former IRS official Lois Lerner, and Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-Maryland) is based on matters pertaining to those individuals and their actions on behalf of the Obama Administration. However, recent actions by the President himself, including his near-pacifist defense policies in the face of Russia’s aggression, vast military buildup, and nuclear arms treaty violations, as well as his growing closeness with the unsavory Al Sharpton may have emboldened Republicans to be more staunch in their attacks on his administration.

Intense anger on the part of farmers in Southern California, ranchers in the Southwest and property owners in a variety of states against extreme tactics and questionable decisions on the part of the White House’s radicalized Environmental Protection Agency may also have played a role in the GOP’s aggressiveness.

A growing unease also over the mounting news reports about criminal aliens being released by the federal government is also adding to public anger.
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The Sebelius resignation may actually help the President. Polls indicate widespread dismay over both the Affordable Healthcare itself as well as its botched rollout. If Sebelius takes the blame, that may deflect anger away from Mr. Obama.

The numerous scandals affecting Attorney General Eric Holder, as well that involving the Internal Revenue Service may be far more difficult to steer away from the White House.

The President has repeatedly denied any involvement or knowledge of the IRS misdeeds. However, the extent of the scandal, including the recently released information that no organizations other than those that vehemently disagreed with Mr. Obama were targeted, makes those statements less than convincing. The House of Representatives has held IRS official Lois Lerner in contempt, and there is contemplation of a related criminal referral. Calls to investigate the possible collusion of Obama ally Rep. Elijah Cummings.

Eric Holder’s refusal to appoint special prosecutors in any of the key scandals has led to the perception that the Department of Justice has become a politicized agency serving only the interests of the White House, and not the nation. Public anger may not be quelled until very significant action is taken, actions which may well permanently cripple the Administration.

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.