Indian Ocean Challenges – USA Gov Policy

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government continues its examination of the growing crisis in the Indo-Pacific region, examining the Department of Defense’s latest information on the subject.

American businesses have traded in Asia since the 18th century, and today, within the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), America’s annual two-way trade with the region is $2.3 trillion, with U.S. foreign direct investment of $1.3 trillion in the region – more than China’s, Japan’s, and South Korea’s combined. The Indo-Pacific contributes two-thirds of global growth in gross domestic product (GDP) and accounts for 60 percent of global GDP. This region includes the world’s largest economies – the United States, China, and Japan – and six of the world’s fastest growing economies – India, Cambodia, Laos, Burma, Nepal, and the Philippines.

A quarter of U.S. exports go to the Indo-Pacific, and exports to China and India have more than doubled over the past decade. This is made possible by free and open trade routes through the air, sea, land, space, and cyber commons that form the current global system.

Vision and Principles for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific

In 2017, President Trump announced our nation’s vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific at the APEC Summit in Vietnam, and our commitment to a safe, secure, prosperous, and free region that benefits all nations. This vision flows from common principles that underpin the current international order, which has benefited all countries in the region – principles we have a shared responsibility to uphold:

1. Respect for sovereignty and independence of all nations;

2. Peaceful resolution of disputes;

3. Free, fair, and reciprocal trade based on open investment, transparent agreements, and connectivity; and,

4. Adherence to international rules and norms, including those of freedom of navigation and overflight.

Our vision for a free Indo-Pacific is one in which all nations, regardless of size, are able to exercise their sovereignty free from coercion by other countries. At the national-level, this means good governance and the assurance that citizens can enjoy their fundamental rights and liberties. Our vision for an open Indo-Pacific is one that promotes sustainable growth and connectivity in the region. This means all nations enjoy access to international waters, airways, and cyber and space domains, and are able to pursue peaceful resolution of territorial and maritime disputes. On an economic level, this means fair and reciprocal trade, open investment environments, and transparent agreements between nations.

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Our vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific recognizes the linkages between economics, governance, and security that are part of the competitive landscape throughout the region, and that economic security is national security. In order to achieve this vision, we will uphold the rule of law, encourage resilience in civil society, and promote transparent governance – all of which expose malign influences that threaten economic development everywhere. Our vision aspires to a regional order in which independent nations can both defend their interests and compete fairly in the international marketplace. It is a vision which recognizes that no one nation can or should dominate the IndoPacific.

In recognition of the region’s need for greater investment, including infrastructure investment, the United States seeks to invigorate our development and finance institutions to enable us to become better, more responsive partners. U.S. Departments and Agencies will work with regional allies and partners to provide end-to-end solutions that build tangible products and transfer experience. Ultimately, the maintenance of a free and open order sustains regional development because a well functioning and transparent marketplace incentivizes global commercial investments that outpaces any state’s unique resources. The United States is not alone in its pursuit of a free and open IndoPacific – many of our allies and partners share these principles and values:

“We must ensure that these waters are a public good that bring peace and prosperity to all people without discrimination into the future.” – Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, policy speech to the 196th session of the Diet January 22, 2018

“Now what is important is to preserve a rules-based development in the region. It’s to preserve the necessary balances in the region.” – President of France, Emmanuel Macron, speech during a state visit to Australia May 2, 2018

“…rules and norms should be based on the consent of all, not on the power of the few.” – Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi, keynote address at the Shangri-La Dialogue June 1, 2018

“We want a rules-based system that respects the sovereignty and the independence of every single country and a commitment then to regional security that is always the precondition for prosperity.” – Prime Minister of Australia, Scott Morrison, address at the APEC CEO Summit November 17, 2018

“Collective solutions to shared challenges in the Pacific require strong and vibrant regionalism, with institutions that can convert political will into action, supported by partners who align their efforts with the region’s priorities.” – Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs for New Zealand, Winston Peters, address at Georgetown University

As the region grows in population and economic weight, U.S. strategy will adapt to ensure that the Indo-Pacific is increasingly a place of peace, stability, and growing prosperity – and not one of disorder, conflict, and predatory economics. Embedding these free and open principles will require efforts across the spectrum of our agencies and capabilities: diplomatic initiatives, governance capacity building, economic cooperation and commercial advocacy and military cooperation.

The Report continues tomorrow.

Photo: Chinese military practices beach landings (Chinese Ministry of Defense)

In the popular imagination, much of the Indo-Pacific region is a realm of exotic ports and tropical seas. It is the new center of international commerce, and it is vital to the global economy. But as China’s military power has reached new heights, the vast portion of the globe is increasingly reminiscent of the era when Japan was an expansionist power and its islands were soaked with the blood resulting from the fiercest battles of the Second World War.

The U.S. Department of Defense has recently released a report of extraordinary significance. Over the next several days, we will provide you with the opportunity to examine this vital issue.

THE DEPARMENT OF DEFENSE Indo-Pacific Strategy Report

The Indo-Pacific is the Department of Defense’s priority theater. The United States is a Pacific nation; we are linked to our Indo-Pacific neighbors through unbreakable bonds of shared history, culture, commerce, and values.

We have an enduring commitment to uphold a free and open IndoPacific in which all nations, large and small, are secure in their sovereignty and able to pursue economic growth consistent with accepted international rules, norms, and principles of fair competition. The continuity of our shared strategic vision is uninterrupted despite an increasingly complex security environment. Inter-state strategic competition, defined by geopolitical rivalry between free and repressive world order visions, is the primary concern for U.S. national security.

In particular, the People’s Republic of China, under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party, seeks to reorder the region to its advantage by leveraging military modernization, influence operations, and predatory economics to coerce other nations. In contrast, the Department of Defense supports choices that promote long-term peace and prosperity for all in the Indo-Pacific. We will not accept policies or actions that threaten or undermine the rules-based international order – an order that benefits all nations. We are committed to defending and enhancing these shared values.

Preparedness – Achieving peace through strength and employing effective deterrence requires a Joint Force that is prepared to win any conflict from its onset. The Department, alongside our Allies and partners, will ensure our combat-credible forces are forward-postured in the region. Furthermore, the Joint Force will prioritize investments that ensure lethality against high-end adversaries.

Partnerships – Our unique network of Allies and partners is a force multiplier to achieve peace, deterrence, and interoperable warfighting capability. The Department is reinforcing its commitment to established Alliances and Partnerships, while This kind of medication is mainly sildenafil price in india prescribed to those patients who do not want to consider brain surgery as an option. Before that time they were unable to see well enough to online prescriptions for cialis play baseball again? Probably. In their opinion, if someone has posted their email address for all to see, then other people have the purchase generic levitra http://downtownsault.org/christmas-festivities-continue-downtown-this-saturday-december-14th/ right to contact that person and ask them questions or send them offers. With the inhibition of PDE5, the body experiences augmentation in nitric oxide level, which allows the students to tadalafil super active take the course with other regular programs. also expanding and deepening relationships with new partners who share our respect for sovereignty, fair and reciprocal trade, and the rule of law.

Promotion of a Networked Region – The Department is strengthening and evolving U.S. Alliances and Partnerships into a networked security architecture to uphold the international rules-based order. The Department also continues to cultivate intra-Asian security relationships capable of deterring aggression, maintaining stability, and ensuring free access to common domains.

Advancing this Indo-Pacific vision requires an integrated effort that recognizes the critical linkages between economics, governance, and security – all fundamental components that shape the region’s competitive landscape. The Department of Defense, in partnership with other U.S. Government Departments and Agencies, regional institutions, and regional Allies and partners, will continue to diligently uphold a rules-based order that ensures peace and prosperity for all.

—Patrick M. Shanahan Acting Secretary of Defense

Introduction

The Indo-Pacific is the single most consequential region for America’s future. Spanning a vast stretch of the globe from the west coast of the United States to the western shores of India, the region is home to the world’s most populous state, most populous democracy, and largest Muslim-majority state, and includes over half of the earth’s population.

Among the 10 largest standing armies in the world, 7 reside in the Indo-Pacific; and 6 countries in the region possess nuclear weapons. Nine of the world’s 10 busiest seaports are in the region, and 60 percent of global maritime trade transits through Asia, with roughly one-third of global shipping passing through the South China Sea alone.

The United States is a Pacific nation and has five Pacific states: Hawaii, California, Washington, Oregon, and Alaska, as well as Pacific territories on both sides of the International Date Line, including: Guam, American Samoa, Wake Island, and the Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI).

The Report continues tomorrow.

Photo: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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