The final Republican presidential debate of 2015 sharply delineated the wide divide between the GOP candidates and their Democrat counterparts. Those who do go to the polls next November will, of course, cast their vote on the contender that most represents their views. But will many not go to the polls at all because they have lost trust in both parties?
The political events of the past year, in particular, sharply illustrate a rising tide of discontent among the rank and file members of both parties.
For Republicans, the revolt against the leadership of former speaker John Boehner represented the frustration that conservatives, Tea Party members, defense hawks, and others have endured over GOP officials who failed to confront the Obama Administration in any way other than mere words. For Democrats, the President’s pacifist foreign policy and low job growth economics are turning both some elected officials and middle class party members against their party leaders.
To the disaffected, the 2016 campaign is dominated by myths propagated by both parties.
Democrats continue to claim that they are a middle-class centered party. Judging by the policies both of the incumbent Democrat President and the candidates seeking to succeed him, little could be farther from the truth. The middle class and those aspiring to raise their incomes to middle class levels have suffered under the Administration’s actions, both those directly affecting the economy and others, such as Obamacare, that have significant indirect influence on the financial security of American workers.
Investors Business Daily notes that “After six-plus years of President Obama’s big-spending, tax-raising policies, middle-class families have seen their incomes decline and more families have fallen into poverty, Census data show. The Census Bureau’s latest annual report on income and poverty in America shows that there was little to cheer about in 2014. Median family income dropped slightly to $53,657, down from the year before. Every income group suffered losses, with the lowest fifth of households dropping close to 1%.
The overall poverty number barely budged. But it climbed by almost 600,000 among blacks in 2014, more than half of whom were under age 18.”
Politico adds to that: “Since 2009, median income in the United States fell almost 4 percent to just over $51,000. That said, the past six years have seen a series of hits to middle-class economic security in the form of radical changes in healthcare; decreased pension guarantees from companies; less job security; and volatility in financial markets that has made retirement planning challenging. Cap that off with the massive hit to financial net worth because of the bursting of the housing bubble and you have a recipe for roiling discontent. Washington, meanwhile, anchored by the Obama administration, is widely seen as having done precious little other than shore up the financial system and the banks in 2009……The statistics on poverty are just as unpleasant. In Obama’s first year in office, 43.6 million people — or 14.3% of the population — lived in poverty. By 2014, that number had climbed by more than 3 million, pushing the poverty rate up to 14.8%. The poverty rate among blacks was 26.2% last year, up from 25.8% in 2009.
Reuters reports: “Federal Reserve survey data show families in the middle fifth of the income scale now earn less and their net worth is lower than when Obama took office. In the six years through 2013, over the recession and recovery that have spanned Obama’s tenure, jobs have been added at the top and bottom of the wage scale…In the middle, the economy has shed positions…”
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National Review writes: “Democrats will point to Obamacare, or the allegedly Affordable Care Act, as one of their great gifts to the middle class. The problem is that middle-class Americans notice when they’re paying more in premiums, co-pays, and deductibles, and the math suggests that the overall program is a bad deal for the middle class…”
Despite the many middle-income members of the Democrat Party, there is little representation for them among the top presidential candidates. Hillary Clinton’s policies are further to the left than those that marked the presidency of her husband. Senator Sanders is an admitted socialist.
Union support has always been crucial to the Democrat Party. While the Obama Administration has given much support to union leadership, it has failed to provide the most crucial need of union members–a strong, job-growth economy. Similarly, Blacks, another key portion of the Democrat constituency, have fared poorly in areas such as job creation and race relations.
The Republican Party’s myth is that it has continued to effectively oppose Mr. Obama’s policies. After taking a beating in the media when its opposition to the President’s budget demands caused an impasse with the White House that resulted in the federal government “shutting down” from October 1 to October 16 in 2013, GOP leaders have only mounted token resistance.
The same can be said for national security issues. Once a defining feature of Republican policy, the current party leadership has failed to push in any effective manner for a reversal of Mr. Obama’s devastating cuts to the armed forces and his essentially pacifist foreign policy.
It is somewhat ironic that the candidate that most reflects the foreign policy views of the GOP’s most respected leader in the past 100 years, Lindsey Graham, remains far behind in polls among likely Republican voters.
Fury over the timidity of Republican leadership has produced a virtual civil war within party ranks. The fighting has resulted both in the overthrow of House Speaker John Boehner, and the rejection of Jeb Bush’s campaign bid in favor of outsiders Donald Trump, Dr. Ben Carson, and Carly Fiorina.
This political cycle may not end in November with the 2016 elections. Certainly, the party that loses will face deep anger among its rank and file, and charges that it ignored the wishes of members resulting in the loss will fly.