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America’s Alliances, and the Threats Faced

Recently, U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper, speaking at the German Marshall Fund in Brussels, Belgium, outlined America’s alliances, the threats faced, and the future of global conflicts.  The New York Analysis of Policy and Government provides key excerpts:

In Afghanistan, the Resolute Support train, advise and assist mission continues to improve the capability of the Afghanistan National Defense and Security Forces.  Their ability to maintain security during the recent elections was a good indication of the progress that they’ve made.

In Saudi Arabia, we continue to reinforce our partners with additional aircraft, air and missile defense systems, and other defensive assets.  We urge our allies in Europe to follow our lead and contribute their own support to help deter Iranian aggression, to promote stability in the region and defend the international rules-based order.

And in Iraq, where I just came from yesterday, the Defeat-ISIS Coalition continues to support the Iraqis and their efforts to ensure the lasting defeat of that terrorist organization.

Despite these positive signs, however, threats to the security and stability of the Middle East still abound.

In Afghanistan, the Taliban’s unwillingness to stop their senseless attacks on innocent civilians set back negotiations to establish peace.

Iran’s continued malign behavior throughout the Middle East, to include its recent attacks on the Saudi Aramco oil facilities, presents a persistent threat to our partners in the region.

And Turkey’s unwarranted incursion into northern Syria jeopardizes the gains made there in recent years.

It is clear there is still a long way to go to achieve peace and stability in that part of the world.  In fact, the numerous security challenges today have the potential to consume our time, to sap our resources, and to dominate our focus.

The commencement this month of our 19th consecutive year of conflict in Afghanistan is just a reminder of just how difficult it is to end a war.

As we continue our efforts around the world to protect the homeland, to help defend our allies and partners, and safeguard our interests, we must do so with an eye to the future.  New threats are on the horizon that we ignore at our own peril.

Meeting these challenges requires us to contend with today’s foes while simultaneously preparing for tomorrow’s potential adversaries — before it’s too late.

The world around us is changing at a pace faster than ever before. New technologies have emerged that could dramatically alter the character of warfare.  Advancements in fields such as artificial intelligence, hypersonic weapons and directed energy are increasing the lethality of modern weapon systems and expanding the geometry of the battlefield.

Staging areas for troops, aircraft and ships safely removed from the effects of enemy weapons in the past are now within range of modern missile systems.  Satellites that transmit vital communications and positioning data miles overhead are increasingly vulnerable to attack. And military bases used as power projection platforms are exposed to cyber threats that aim to disrupt infrastructure needed to deploy forces.

In the future, wars will be fought not just on the land and on the sea, as they have for thousands of years, or in the air, as they have for the past century, but also in outer space and cyberspace in unprecedented ways.

Preparing for this type of warfare requires a renewed focus on high-intensity conflict, it requires continued alliance on allies and partners, and it requires the foresight to expand our warfighting capabilities across all five of these domains.

The United States National Defense Strategy remains the department’s guidepost as we adapt the force to this new environment.  The NDS prioritizes China first, Russia second, as we transition our primary focus towards great power competition.

It is increasing — increasingly clear that Beijing and Moscow wish to reshape the world to their favor at the expense of others.  Through predatory economics, political subversion and military force, they seek to erode the sovereignty of weaker states.  Over time, this activity is undermining the current international rules-based order that generations before us worked so hard to achieve.

It is quite fitting that this very institution where we gather this morning was first established to commemorate the strategy that helped create this order.  The Marshall Plan, along with other post-World War II initiatives, was grounded in a common set of principles, such as democracy, freedom, human rights, national sovereignty and free trade.

The international system that followed has long served as the foundation for our security and our prosperity. But today, China and Russia, nations with a view of the world very different than our own, are using their power to coercively alter the strategic environment, and they’re doing so in a way that uses this system against us.

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Throughout my travels in my first three months as Secretary of Defense, I’ve heard firsthand from allies and partners around the world about the damage that’s being done.

China’s One Belt, One Road initiative has left several nations with unsustainable debt, forcing them to trade sovereignty for financial relief.  Even developed nations fear China’s growing leverage, which not only impacts their economic and political decisions but, perhaps worse, leads them to make suboptimal security choices.

I would caution my friends in Europe against adopting the mindset that American concerns about Chinese economic and military expansion are overstated or not relevant to their national security.  The PRC’s influence is rapidly expanding as it continues to pursue new partners well beyond the region.  Our security must not be diminished by a short and narrow-sighted focus on economic opportunity.

The United States is not asking nations to choose between China and the rest of the world, but we are asking them to pursue a future that supports democracy, that enables economic prosperity, and that protects human rights.

All countries must enter their relationship with the PRC with eyes wide open.  China’s state-sponsored theft of intellectual property, its militarization of the South China Sea and its mistreatment of ethnic minorities are all clear examples of Beijing’s unwillingness to abide by international rules and norms.  The ongoing protests in Hong Kong are a consequence of Beijing’s gradual erosion of the rights guaranteed under the One Country, Two Systems agreement in 1997.

In a world dominated by China, these actions by the state, regrettably, would constitute acceptable behavior.

Similarly, Russia’s foreign policy demonstrates a blatant disregard for state sovereignty.  In addition to their military incursions in Georgia and Ukraine, their use of cyber warfare and information operations continues to interfere with other states’ domestic affairs.

In the case of both China and Russia, their malign behavior, combined with aggressive military modernization programs, puts the international security environment on a trajectory that should concern all free nations.

Over the next two days, as I meet with our NATO allies here in Brussels my message will be clear.

First, the United States commitment to NATO and Article 5 is iron-clad.  However, for the alliance to remain strong, every member — every member must contribute its fair share to ensure our mutual security and uphold the international rules-based order.

This means not only contributing to the important NATO security missions around the world today, but also making sufficient investments towards the capabilities needed to deter our potential adversaries tomorrow.

In 2014, all 28 NATO allies made a commitment to the defense spending goal of 2% of GDP by 2024.  However, only eight nations have so far achieved this important milestone.  Just over half of the allies are currently on track to reach this level of defense spending.  I commend them for meeting their obligation on time.  But a number of other NATO members are, unfortunately, falling short.

Cumulatively, allies plan $100 million in defense spending increases through the next year. A lot of money, but as we all agreed, we can, must and will do more.

Anticipating our Leaders Meeting in December, I urge all allies that do not yet have a credible plan to implement the Wales Defense investment plan to develop one soon.  There can be no free riders for our shared security. Regardless of geographic location, size or population, all must do their part to help deter war and defend the alliance.  We’re only as strong as the investments we are willing to make towards our common defense.

In terms of readiness, I’m encouraged by the progress allies are making.  We are close to our goal of the Four 30s by 2020.  As our leaders agreed when they adopted the NATO Readiness Initiative, having the addition of 30 air squadrons, 30 combat vessels and 30 mechanized battalions ready to fight in 30 days or less is a critical first step to re-instilling a culture of readiness in the alliance. I expect that by the NATO Leaders Meeting in December, we will have 100% of these important contributions identified.

Together, we all have an obligation to prepare for the challenges of the future, even as we manage the security issues of the present.  The international order constructed following World War II benefited the entire world.  Initiatives like the Marshall Plan helped to rebuild the continent, restore political order and bring about economic prosperity following a time of great destruction.

That order has largely remained intact, but there is no inherent permanence to its design.  Our potential adversaries seek to weaken the integrity of these institutions and incrementally reshape the international system. Should we remain complacent and fail to recognize the shifting landscape, we risk inviting greater aggression and further challenges to our shared values and security.

Defending this system and deterring this aggression remains my primary task, and we can only do this by working closely together to maintain a ready, capable alliance that’s prepared to fight when ready. I am confident that we will be successful in doing so if we fully commit to this task and lead our citizens toward this goal.

Photo: The guided missile destroyer USS Halsey travels in the Indian Ocean, March 28, 2018, while supporting security efforts in the U.S. 7th Fleet area of operations. (USN)